評價分析奇幻之旅 disney case study-a-ching huang 2015.3
TRANSCRIPT
NCKU Research Center of Finance Innovation & Investments
證券評價分析奇幻之旅黃鐘慶
2015.3.14
I do not make films primarily for children. I make them for the child in all of us, whether we be six or sixty.- Walt Disney
Disney Case Study
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• 本講義閱覽對象為證券評價入門班學員,本講義的內容、陳述或主張非為買賣或提供買賣任何有價證券或金融商品的邀約,邀約之引誘或建議。所有資訊仍應以相關主管機關、臺灣證券交易所股份有限公司或財團法人櫃 買賣中心等所公 之資訊為準。瀏覽者自行為投資行為前,仍需自行評估及判斷檯 佈自身可承受之風險,且本人並不對更新延誤負任何責任;瀏覽者如依據本內容,逕自為任何投資行為,應自行承擔交易風險及損失,與本人無涉,特此聲明。
• 瀏覽者如以本人所提供之資訊自行為推介或建議之行為,除須自行承擔是否違反主管機關之規範外,如因此造成第三人損失或發生誤導第三人之情形,除須自行對第三人負責任外,本人亦將循法律途徑保障本人之權益。
• 本講義所有財務資訊與其他資訊,可能因時間經過或後續事件之發生,致使報告中之資訊不正確或不完整,使用者在閱讀資料同時,應參考主管機關公開且完整之各項財務業務訊息。報告公開後,本人不承擔因情勢變更而即時更新或修正相關內容之責任。
• 本講義可能包含前瞻性陳述,當中涉及風險、不明朗因素及假設。任何非歷史性資料,包含對企業的經營策略、營運計畫與未來展望等皆屬前瞻性陳述範疇,而前瞻性陳述本身的不確定性、風險、假設或其他因素如 :經營上的改變、競爭環境、經濟情勢、法規變化、科技發展與其他超出本人管控因素等,皆可能導致分析結論與上開前瞻性陳述有很大的差異。
• 為保護智慧財產權,此份報告未經編製者之同意,不得任意轉載或做其他目的之使用。若有任何事實、法令或是政策之變更,編製者保留修正本件資料之權利。
Safe Harbor Notice
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Outline
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Chapter 5-1
個案研究 -Disney
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Disney
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DNA
Source: Disneyland Secrets
只要想像力存在於這個世界,迪士尼樂園就永遠不會完工
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I do not make films primarily for children. I make them for the child in all of us, whether we be six or sixty.- Walt Disney
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1997Revenue22,473
Disney
2014Revenue48,813
In millionsIn millions
CAGR4.67%
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1997Operating Income
4,312
Disney
2014Operating Income
11,400
In millionsIn millions
CAGR5.89%
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CEO三大策略
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Source: Disney 2014 AR
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Acquisitions
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FranchiseChairman and CEO
Source : Disney 2014 AR
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一種技術萬種應用
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Disney
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Disney
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Source : Disney 2014 AR
Disney 部門收入
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Focus on it
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些部門佔了哪 80%的重要性 ?
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Source : Disney 2014 AR, 講師整理
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Total Operating Income76.77%
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Media Networks
80% owned100% owned
100% owned
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Source : Disney 2014 AR
Disney 五大部門資本支出
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Media Networks
6,818 to 7,321
Operating Income
2013 2014
Only Required CAPEX
260263
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Cash Cow
Media Networks
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Source : Google Map
1955 197
1
1983
1992
2005
上海迪士尼2015
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Source : Disney 2014 AR
81.65%來自美國市場
迪士尼樂園收益狀況
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上海迪士尼總投資
$5.5 Billion
備註 : 因園區尚未正式開幕,該數字仍是預估數
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迪士尼樂園 占地面積 ( 平方公里 ) 票價 (on $)
佛州迪士尼 122.28 105
加州迪士尼 2.06 99
東京迪士尼 2.01 53
巴黎迪士尼(51% owned)
19.51 68
香港迪士尼(48% owned)
1.26( 第一期 ) 64
上海迪士尼(43% owned)
3.9( 第一期 ) 48*( 未核定 )
備註 : 票價自官網換算,可能隨時變動
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市場別 營收 單位平方公里營收
美國 12,329 99
其他國際市場 2,770 121
In millions, US dollars
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上海迪士尼營運預估
474 millionRevenue
備註 : 第一期面積 X 國際市場單位面積營收
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Source : Disney 2014 AR
迪士尼入園數、人均消費、飯店住宿分析
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個部門對成長貢獻最高哪 ?
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Source : Disney 2014 AR, 講師整理
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Studio Entertainment134.34%
2014 Growth
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Source : Disney 2014 AR
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Studio Entertainment
Source : Disney 2014 AR, 講師整理
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Net Effective Pricing
Source : Disney 2014 AR
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五大部門 OPM 與營業利益貢獻度
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Disney
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Stress Test
如果事情不如預期,會有多糟 ?
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Stress Test
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Expected Value Thinking
機率 X+ 機率 Y=100%
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Expected Value Thinking
Source : 講師 2014 拍攝於舊金山金門大橋
任何一座橋 的設計建設,都要經得起時間的考驗樑
Why
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總體經濟循環
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過去 65 年11 次經濟衰退
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每六年會經歷一次經濟衰退
16.67%機率
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Expected Value
機率 X+ 機率 Y=100%
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Source: 【 03.07 證券評價分析之旅】 - 風險篇
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Disney
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編制順序註 : 本個案僅編評價模型需要的相關數據
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損益表 Pro forma
編制一份對未來預期的損益表,通常排除業外一次性的損益,不受限於會計準則的要求,更適用於投資人做評價的損益表
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NOPLAT
Net Operating Profit Less Adjusted Taxes
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NOPLAT+
(Dep+Amor)NI + NCC + Int(1-tax rate)
接近但不等於
預估現金流量小技巧
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從公司 ( 債權人
及股東 ) 的角度FCFF, Free Cash Flow to the Firm
FCFF=NI + NCC + Int*(1-tax rate) – FCInv - WCInv=CFO + Int*(1-tax rate) – FCInv
名稱 會計定義NI, net income available to
common shareholders
淨利
NCC, net noncash charges 折舊、攤銷…等
Int, interest expense 利息費用
FCInv, investment in fixed
capital
資本支出
WCInv, Investment in working
capital
( 流動資產 - 流動負債 )
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NOPLAT + (Dep.+Amor.)
改寫成下式 :
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Disney 損益表 (Pro forma)
五大部門分別評估
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Disney 損益表 (Pro forma)
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過去五年的損益表
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部門別 成長假設 2015-2017Growth 永續成長假設 2018~
Media networks 依過去五年線性成長 5.36% 回歸長期 GDP 名目
成長率 3%
3%
Parks and resorts2016 上海開幕增
3.14% ,其餘 5 座迪
士尼樂園依過去五年
線性成長
2015 : 8.84%2016 : 3.14%+8.84%
2017 : 8.84%
回歸長期 GDP 名目
成長率 3%3%
Studio Entertainment 依過去五年線性成長 2.09%電影產出不確定性高
,調減為 1%1%
Consumer Products 依過去五年線性成長 10.45%回歸長期 GDP 名目
成長率 3%3%
Interactive不具競爭障礙,屬非
核心產品,設定不成
長
0% 0% 0%
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一個涵蓋 3 年快速成長期與永續成長期的損益表
不推薦個股買賣,內在價 數字尚未考慮未來資本結構改變的變化,相關數字僅供個案評價練習使用值
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Source : Disney 2014 AR
Total Debt
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Disney
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決定資金成本
S&P 500 Total Return 過去十年幾何平均數
本課程不推薦個股買賣,內在價 數字尚未考慮未來資本結構改變的變化,相關數字僅供個案評價課程練習使用值
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RI Model - Disney
本課程不推薦個股買賣,內在價 數字尚未考慮未來資本結構改變的變化,相關數字僅供個案評價課程練習使用值
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DCF Model - Disney
本課程不推薦個股買賣,內在價 數字尚未考慮未來資本結構改變的變化,相關數字僅供個案評價課程練習使用值
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理論上,任何評價模型應該得到相同的結果,但實務上因為一些簡化或會計數字的省略等因素,會形成誤差。
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Intrinsic Value Range
80.95
72.86
89.05
不推薦個股買賣,內在價 數字尚未考慮未來資本結構改變的變化,相關數字僅供個案評價練習使用值
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Intrinsic Value 72-89
本課程不推薦個股買賣,內在價 數字尚未考慮未來資本結構改變的變化,相關數字僅供個案評價課程練習使用值
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Expected Value
劇本一經濟衰退
劇本二正常成長
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本課程不推薦個股買賣,內在價 數字尚未考慮未來資本結構改變的變化,相關數字僅供個案評價課程練習使用值
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Disney
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Conclusions 1
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Conclusions 2
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Conclusions 3
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It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong. –John Maynard Keynes與其精確的錯誤,我寧可要模糊的正確。
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Conclusions 4
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Chapter 5-2產業分析架構 - 以互聯網衝擊為例
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Five Forces Analysis
Michael Porter
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基因
是企業賴以發展的核心價 ,它不會改變,除非世值界不再需要它了
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以服務和軟體為核心的 B2B 公司
DNA
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Steve Jobs: We could build a little thing that could control a giant thing.
DNA
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DNA
Motorola1G to 2G
1G 的成功包袱技術決定論
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IT 業的貴族技術至上論敗在技術差異不大的新技術環境
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Disrupting
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這些破壞是現在進行式
TV
Newspaper
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重新定義
住宿服務
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挑戰
傳統的 Banking 業務
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Mobile Internet
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移動互聯網的生態特性
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商業上的價值
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“ 能 生存下來的不是最強或最聰明的物種,而是夠最能因應變化的物種。“ - 達爾文
Charles Darwin
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電商無法超越的障礙
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Source: Costco 2014 AR
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Source: Costco 2014 AR
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會員費收入占營業利益的 75%
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Costco 能持續保持優勢的道理
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Chapter 6
證券投資的科學面與藝術面
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一杯咖 的科學故事啡油球丟入一杯熱咖 ,科學有辦法計算出熱流 渦的方向奶 啡 漩 嗎 ?
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Edward Norton Lorenz
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咖 內的熱對流方向是無法預測的,但我們很清楚最終的結果啡
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專家槌子問題
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如果你依據的事實與理性是合理正確的,最終價格會趨近於價 ,趨於均衡。值
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藝術
從平均到優異
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如果你和大多數人看一樣的報紙,接收一樣的資訊
平均的結果你會得到
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優異Outlier
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做好被誤解的心理準備
與行之多年的共識不一樣的思考
勇敢承受表面看起來是錯誤的決定
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成為墓地裡最有錢的人沒有意義,每天晚上當我上床睡覺時,只要能 對自己說『我完成了一件很棒的事情』,這夠比什麼都來得有意義。 - 賈伯斯
“Being the richest man in the cemetery doesn't matter to me. Going to bed at night saying we've done something wonderful... that's what matters to me.”- Steve Jobs
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2015 證券評價奇幻之旅