آلية التنمية النظيفة clean development mechanism cdm eng. rafik georgy...
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النظيفة التنمية آلية
Clean Development Mechanism CDM
Eng. Rafik Georgy
الرياح محطة مشروع تأهيل ومقترحبالزعفرانة 120قدرة ميجاوات
اآللية إطار فى اليابان مع بالتعاون
ا
جى ر جو سف يو فيق ر س المهند
اإلطارية المتحدة االمم اتفاقيةالمناخ UNFCCCلتغير
البيئة وحماية التنمية بقضايا العالمى االهتمام تزايد
ريودى فى والبيئة للتنمية االول المتحدة االمم مؤتمرعام – – االولى االرض قمة البرازيل فى 1992جانيرو
المناخ لتغير اإلطارية المتحدة االمم اتفاقية اعالنUNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change
الجمهورى القرار وصدور االتفاقية على مصر توقيعالشان 1994لسنة 386رقم بهذا
فى الفعلى التنفيذ وبداية 1995 – 3 – 5التصديق
التنمية آلية و كيوتو بروتوكولالنظيفة
لتطبيق سلطة أعلى يعد والذى االطراف مؤتمراالتفاقية
Conference of Parties COP
الثالث االطراف مؤتمر باليابان COP3عقد كيوتو فىكيوتو 1997فى بروتوكول توقيع عن أسفر والذى
Kyoto Protocol االتفاقية لتفعيل هامة كخطوة
فى للبروتوكول مصر 1999 –3 –15توقيع
الفترة خالل فى ذلك اتمام وينتظر بعد التصديق يتم لمالقادمة القصيرة
االول الملحق دول بين البرتوكول Annex 1يفرقCountries االقتصاد ذات والدول الصناعية الدول وهى
– أوربا ودول االتحادية روسيا التحول مرحلة فى – وتسمى االخرى الدول وسائر Non Annex 1الشرقية
Countries
التنمية وآلية كيوتو بروتوكول تابعالنظيفة
لخفض • محددة التزامات عليها االول المرفق دولمتوسطها يبلغ متفاوتة بنسب الدفيئة غازات 5انبعاث
عام % 6– معدالت من , 1990اقل الفترة خالل وذلك2012- 2008أعوام
االخرى • الدول على محددة كمية التزامات توجد ال) رئيسية) بصفة النامية الدول
ماال • من اقراره بشرط التنفيذ حيز البروتوكول يدخلعن هذه% 55يقل تتسبب ان وبشرط العالم دول من
عن يقل ماال فى العالمية% 55الدول االنبعاثات من
حيث • من جدا كبيرا تفاوتا تتفاوت الدفيئة غازاتوهى , ) الحرارى االحتباس زيادة على مركبا( 16تأثيرها
: التالية الستة اهمها
آلية و كيوتو بروتوكول تابعالنظيفة التنمية الكربون* اكسيد - CO2 ثانى القياس وحدة وهو
(GWP)*
من - CH4 الميثان* ضعفا 20اكثر
النيتروز* االضعاف - N2O اكسيد مئات
الهيدروجينية* الفلورية HFCs المركبات
المشبعة* الفلورية - PFCs المركبات آالف االضعاف
الكبريت* فلوريد SF6 سادس
خالل * الحرارى االحتباس عام 100تأثير
Global Worming Potential )GWP(
آلية و كيوتو بروتوكول تابعالنظيفة التنمية كيوتو بروتوكول اطار فى آليات ثالث اقرار
االنبعاثات فى Emissions Trade – ETالتجارة
المشتركة المشروعات Joint Implementation JIتنفيذ
الدول بين للتعاون تطبقان اآلليتان وهاتانالمتقدمة الصناعية
النظيفة التنمية Clean Development Mechanismآلية– CDM
( او االول المرفق دول بين للتعاون تطبق اآللية وهذه ( ) او االول المرفق غير ودول المتقدمة الصناعية الدول
: ) وهو مزدوج وغرضها النامية الدول
o المستدامة التنمية تحقيق على النامية الدول مساعدة
o اللتزامها االمتثال على الصناعية الدول مساعدةاالنبعاثات بخفض
آلية مشروعات تطبيق شروطالنظيفة التنمية المستدامة • التنمية تحقيق فى المشروع يساهم أن
فيها سينفذ التى النامية أو المضيفة للدول
غازات • فى للقياس وقابال مؤكدا خفضا يحقق أنالدفيئة
على • المناخ تغير مخاطر من التقليل فى يساهم أنالبعيد األمد
الدفيئة • غازات فى اليه المشار الخفض يكون أن( الدول( Additionalاضافيا فى حدوثه بالفعل يتم لما
االساس سيناريو من اقل اى المضيفةBusiness – As – Usual المرجعى السيناريو او
للمقارنة Baseline Scenario
• ) ( والمستثمرة النامية المضيفة الدول من كل موافقة ) وافقتا) قد تكونا أن وعلى المشروع على المتقدمة
كيوتو بروتوكول على وصادقتا
آلية • مساهمة بدون المشروع تنفيذ تأجيل او صعوبةالنظيفة التنمية
النامية للدول الصالحية شروطفى اآلليةللمساهمة اآللية فى الطوعية المشاركة
مبدئيا حصرا تتضمن النظيفة التنمية اللية وطنية استراتيجية وضعوتم المقترحة المشروعات الولويات وترتيبا االنبعاثات لمصادرعام ديسمبر فى االستراتيجية صدرت حيث لمصر بالنسبة ذلك
الرئيسية 2002 االولويات بين من الرياح مشروعات متضمنة
تطبيق عن مسئولة وطنية جهة اآلليةتحديد
Designated National Authority – DNA
فى- تشكيلها قرار صدور وينتظر للتكوين النهائية المراحل فىالعاجل القريب
لمتابعة واالرشادات العريضة الخطوط يضع وطنى نظام قياممشروعات تنفيذ حالة فى الخفض وكمية االنبعاثات كمية قياس
CDM - خالل من االنشاء طور DNAفى
: يلى بما المذكور النظام يقوم
o سنوية بصورة فيها والتغير االنبعاثات كمية تحديد
o والمعلومات الشفافية توفير مع دورية بصفة المعلومات هذه نشريطلبها لمن
تنفيذ من لمصر المتوقعة الفوائدالتنمية آلية اطار فى مشروعات
النظيفة تنفيذ خالل من المستدامة التنمية فى والمساهمة دعماآلليةمشروعات
الذى الدولى التعاون من لتنفيذ تتيحهاالستفادة اآلليةالنظيفة للتكنولوجيا نقل من يصاحبه وما مشروعاتها
الخبرات ونقل واآلمنة
لمصر االجنبية االستثمارات تدفق وزيادة دعم
مشروعات اقتصاديات ( اآلليةتحسين ( عن الرياح مثلاالنبعاثات خفض شهادات بيع Certifiedطريق
Emission Reductions – CERs
الهامة للمشروعات اضافى تمويلى دعم توفير
و عنه الناجمة العالمية واألضرار المناخ تغير اخطار درءساحلها وخاصة به المهددة الدول احد مصر تعد الذى
النيل وادى ودلتا الشمالى
0
CDM - KYOTO CRITERIA
Contributes to the sustainable development of the host country.
Results in emission reductions that would not have happened otherwise.
Generates real, measurable and long-term climate change mitigation benefits.
Approved by parties involved. Credits potentially earned from 2000 onward
(through 2008-2012).
Zafarana Wind Power Plant as a CDM Project
Zafrana project is an 120 MW wind power plant. More than 440 GWh of electricity per year.)based on
capacity factor 42 %( Around 90,000 TOE Saved yearly. About 230,000 t of Certified Emission Reductions
annually )CERs( if designated as CDM. Expected life time 20 – 25 years
A cooperation project between NREA of Egypt and JBIC of Japan who Supports project financing.
CDM Procedures PDD Production Pubic & Expert Opinions. Host country confirmation. Methodology Panel Approval. Validation. CDM Executive Board Approval. Registration. Monitoring. Verification. Certification. CER issuance and registration.
PROJECT DESIGN DOCUMENT )PDD(
General description of project activity. Baseline methodology. Duration of the project activity / Crediting period. Monitoring methodology and plan. Calculation of GHG emissions by sources. Environmental Impacts. Stakeholders comments.
What is a BASELINE
It is The Business as usual that is what would otherwise happen if CDM project will not be implemented.
It is the reference value to estimate the reduction of CO2 ) or GHG ( emissions.
Baselines and AdditionalityBaselines and Additionality A baseline is the emissions that would have occurred
In the absence of the project or “without project” scenario
Covers gas emissions from all sectors and sources
within the project boundary.
It is the key to the GHG reduction project – used to
determine the emission reductions )ERs( from the
project activity.
Additionality – must demonstrate that without the
project, the GHG emissions would not have been
reduced.
Approaches to BaselinesApproaches to Baselines
COP7 held in Marrakech in 2001 formulated CDM Modalities & procedures
The Marrakech Accords lay out three approaches from which proponents should select as the basis for their baseline methodology :
A( actual current or historical emissions, or B( emissions from a cost-effective technology taking
into account barriers to investment, or C( the averaged emissions of similar projects in the
past 5 years in similar socio-economic, environmental and technical conditions and whose performance is in the top 20 percent.
General Baseline Requirements
Baseline Must be project-specific. In describing the chosen methodology, an
explanation must be given as to : Why the method was chosen How it will be applied How it was established in a transparent and
conservative manner How it takes into account any relevant national or
sectoral polices.
Additionality
Probably, the most important issue for CDM-project baseline methodology approval is whether the project satisfies the additionality criterion.
Two interpretations turning the condition into fulfillment of two criteria :
Additionality ) cont. (
Soft interpretation ; Environmental Additionality : the project must show, through the baseline scenario, that CDM project, compared to alternative production
methods, reduces CO2 emissions during its life time production process.
i.e the project will accomplish both:o Measurable and certified GHG emission reductions o Long term climate change mitigation benefits
Or
Additionality ) cont. (
Hard interpretation; insists on proving that the project, being more expensive without counting CER revenues compared to the alternative base line, would not be implemented if the CDM project did not exist
Zafarana Project Satisfies BOTH !!
BaseIine Methodology for the Wind Project
Presently, no approved CDM methodology to be applied for “Grid Connected Wind Power Generation”.
New methodology is proposed in accordance with CDM modalities and Procedures.
Baseline Methodology Steps
The project is additional because: There is no incentive program to promote wind power
projects currently in Egypt. The cost for a wind power plant is higher than for
conventional thermal power plants, in terms of levelised cost of KWh produced.
The economic growth in Egypt has led to stricter terms and conditions for foreign financial assistance.
Naturally, the project will result in CERs.
Investment Barriers for wind Plants
No incentives for wind power generation. Wind is more capital intensive. Low price for natural gas. Result: Currently wind generated KWh cost cannot compete
with thermal generated KWh cost. Wind cannot be viewed as BAU leading to : WIND NEED for CDM SUPPORT TO BE IMPLEMENTED.
Base Line Methodology Margins Considered
Operating Margin :
Average of all generation types excluding low cost / must run plants. Those excluded were hydro facilities while existing wind plant is a debatable issue.
Build margin :
Average of the most recent 5 plants built, or most recent 20% ; under implementation projects should be considered.
Steps to determine BaselineSteps to determine Baseline
Is the project additional?Is the project additional?
Will the project affectWill the project affectthe operating marginthe operating margin??
Project cannot Project cannot qualify as CDMqualify as CDM
Will the project also Will the project also affect the build margin?affect the build margin?
Build marginBuild marginapproachapproach
Combined Combined margin margin
approachapproach
OperatingOperatingmarginmargin
approachapproach
Determine:Determine:•Operating marginOperating margin•Build marginBuild margin•Combined marginCombined margin
MethodologyMethodologynotnot
applicableapplicable
Yes
Yes
Yes No
No
No
Determining Operating Margin .
Less than 20% generation comes from hydro. More than 80% from thermal Power Plants. Wind will replace thermal generation mix of
Combined Cycle, Steam Turbines and Gas Turbines.
A conservative approach.
Determining Build Margin
Emission rate of : Most recent 20% plants built, or Most recent )5( plants built gives same result. ) two approaches give same result for Zafarana (
Cairo North )2(,750MW, CC, 5.3%.Cairo North )1(,750MW, CC, 5.256%. Zafarana, 77MW, wind, 0.3%.Suez Gulf )1,2( BOOT,682MW, ST 4.8%.Port Said East )1,2(, 682MW, ST 4.6%.Conservative Approach to Consider Wind Plant.
Electric load curve
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
MW
Pick period )2 hours(
Day period )12 hours(
Marginal generators
Base generators
Wind Energy farm contribution
Power Generators Selection For Baseline Calculation
To determine Operating MarginTo determine Operating Margin
Notes:
For the Egypt’s grid excluding Low-cost / must-run )around 33 power plants(
● Total Capacity )MW( = 12,933
● Net Power )GWh( = 62,353
● Fuel Consumption )103 toe( = 14,378
e: Egypt's grid excluding low-cost/must-run
Power Plant Type of Generation
Capacity (MW)
Net Power (GWh)
Fuel Consumption
(103 toe) ShoubraEl Khima ST 1260 7141 1686 Cairo West ST 350 1563 426 Cairo West ext. ST 660 3521 791 Cairo South I CC(hybrid) 570 3236 711 Cairo South II CC 165 1018 186 Wadi Hof GT 100 20 8 Tebbin GT 46 103 43 Tebbin ST 45 7 3 Damietta CC 1125 6736 1294 Talkha(CC) CC 283.6 1410 346 Talkha(ST) ST 90 1 0.2 Talkha 210 ST 420 1912 487 Ataka ST 900 4634 1053 Abu Sultan ST 600 2879 824 Shabab GT 100 73 25 Port Said GT 64 24 9
Arish ST 66 356 108 Oyoun Mousa ST 640 3655 823 Kafr El Dawar ST 440 1411 376 Mahmoudia (G) GT 180 51 19 Mahmoudia (CC) CC 308 1898 386 Damanhour 300 ST 300 945 211 Damanhour Ext ST 195 742 195 Damanhour (CC) CC 152.8 923 177 Seiuf (G) GT 200 38 14 Seiuf (ST) ST 113 355 131 Karmouz GT 25 1 0.1 Abu Kir ST 900 3896 925 Sidi Krir 1.2 ST 640 3662 765 Matrouh ST 60 149 41 Walidid ST 600 2819 674 Kuriemat ST 1245 6713 1489 Assiut ST 90 461 152 ToTal 12.933 62.353 14.378
Source: Annual Report 2001 – 2002 , Egyptian Electricity Holding Company
To determine build MarginTo determine build Margin
To obtain the CO2 emission factor for the build margin, we have to calculate the emission factor for the resent 5 plants.
o Total Net Power )GWh( = 19,754o Fuel consumption ) 103 toe ( = 3,994
PlantPlant TypeNet Power(GWh)(% of total3 )
Fuel Consumptions (103 toe)
Commissioning
Date
Cairo North ( 2 )CC750 MW
5256(5.3%)
988)based onNREA estimate of fuel consumption)
05/0606/07
Cairo North (1 )CC 750 MW
5256 (5.3%)
988 (as above)
03/04 04/05
ZafaranaWind 77 MW
280(0.3%)
003/04
Suez Gulf 1.2BOOT
ST682 MW
4481 (4.6%)
1009(based on Oyoun Msousa)
02/03
Port Said East 1.2 BOOT
ST682 MW
4481(4.6%)
1009(as above)
02/03
TOTAL197543994
The 5 Recent Plants
Baseline Methodology steps)continued(
The project will affect Operating margin and build margin.
Combined margin =
{Operating margin + [Build margin x n]}/n+1 n has been chosen to be 1 instead of 0.6 which
would have been in favor of wind. Again complying with the conservative approach
CDM criterion
Monitoring Methodology
Presently there is no monitoring methodology applicable to the project.
Base Line source of emission is grid electricity which can be reasonably monitored as an indication for Potential fuel consumption )to be saved( hence avoided emissions of CO2 mainly.
Duration of the project is yet to be chosen with preference to 7 years at least for the timebeing.
Environmental Impacts
Noise Pollution
Negligible, Being an arid area. Visual Pollution
Same, no community nearby. Land Use
Same, however, during construction fences will be erected around.
Environmental Impacts )CONT.(
Potential Impact on Migrating Birds. Relatively of more concern. Zafarana is close but not in a major Pathway of
birds. No green areas, fresh water nor food scraps of
human activity exist as it is a remote arid area.
Result:
Danger is minimum and almost negligible.
CDM Procedures PDD Production Pubic & Expert Opinions. Host country confirmation. Meth Panel Approval. Validation. CDM Executive Board Approval. Registration. Monitoring. Verification. Certification. CER issuance and registration.
Project Cycle for the CDM
DNA
1- Project Design & Formulation
2- National Approval
3- Validation- Registration
4- Project Financing
Project Design Document )PDD(
Operational Entity A
DOE )A(
Investor
5- Monitoring Project Participants
MP & EB
Project Cycle for the CDM
6- Verification Certification
7- Issuance of CERs
Monitoring Report
Operational Entity B
DOE )B(
Verification Report – Certification Report –
Request for CERs
EB - Registry
LegendsActivity Report Institution
Meth. No. Type 1.Mark 2.Mark GHG reduction/yr Country Investor yr.1 Bagasse power B A 143 ktCO2 Brazil Unilateral 7
2+29 Fuel switch from coke to charcoal in steel works C EB14 ca. 1000 ktCO2 Brazil IFC-Netherlands & Japan 73 CO2 from NH3 production used in methanol prod. C 229 ktCO2 Trinidada & Tobago Germany 104 Landfill gas flaring AM2 ca. 800 ktCO2 Brazil Unilateral 75 Landfill gas electricity B AM3 ca. 300 ktCO2 Brazil WB NCDF 76 Hydro Power C 144 ktCO2 Guatamala PCF 77 Burning HFC23 from HCFC22 production AM1 1400 ktCO2 South Korea Japan 78 Hydro Power C 100 ktCO2 Costa Rica CERUPT 10
9+14+15+19 Rice husk power plant (el + steam + cement) C AM4 400 ktCO2 Thailand Rolls-Royce Power + 710 Landfill gas electricity B A 400 ktCO2 South Africa PCF 711 Bagasse Power C 100 ktCO2 India Unilateral 712 Wind farm B 53 ktCO2 Jamaica CERUPT 1013 Biogas from palm oil waste water 27 ktCO2 Malaysia Japan 1016 Fuel switch from coal to natural gas B A 18 ktCO2 Chile Nestle Chile 717 Efficiency improvement of steam use at refinery Meth9 100 ktCO2 China Unilateral 1018 New cogeneration plant using natural gas Deskr. 115 ktCO2 Chile Japan (J-Power) 1020 Hydro Power Meth9 70 ktCO2 Colombia Japan (J-Power) 721 Landfill gas power for on site usage A 70 ktCO2 Brazil CERUPT 1022 Biogas power from swine manure 90 ktCO2 Chile Canada 723 Hydro power A 70 ktCO2 Mexico PCF 724 Wind farm 45 ktCO2 Colombia PCF 725 Biomass residues power plant 85 ktCO2 India Swedish Energy Agency 1026 Recovering associated gas in stead of flaring 670 ktCO2 Vietnam Japan 1027 Bagasse power expansion 23 ktCO2 Brazil CERUPT 10
28+35 Switch from coal/lignite to agro-biomass power Meth9 600 ktCO2 India PCF 1030 Bagasse power and steam 95 ktCO2 India Local 1031 Power from waste heat in iron kiln 37 ktCO2 India Unilateral 1032 Biogas power from municipal waste 100 ktCO2 India PCF 1033 Energy efficient expansion of cement factory 80 ktCO2 Costa Rica CERUPT 734 CH4 & N2O reductions from manure management 20 ktCO2 Brazil Canada 736 120 MW wind farm in Zafarana 227 ktCO2 Egypt Japan (JBIC) 7
The first 36 proposed new methodologies sent to the EB
Conclusion:
At 5 US$ per ton CO2 & around 0.56kg CO2 avoided emissions per KWh produced from thermal power stations -Wind produced KWh will have a bonus of around 2 piaster which cannot close the gap between wind and thermal generation.
CDM cannot solely make uncompetitive projects economically attractive.
Rather, CDM can make near economic projects feasible or more attractive.