beacon wave capital management team c member diagne, papamagatte chen, yujie hu, jing gan, yuzhou...
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Beacon Wave Capital Management
Team C Member
Diagne, PapamagatteChen, Yujie
Hu, JingGan, YuzhouBrown, LucasWu, Yanchao
Contents
Macro factors
Recommendations
Portfolio investment groups
Analysis on portfolio
Portfolio performance
Macroeconomic Factors
Macroeconomics relatively stable in US, but uncertain in globalFED has dual mandate when determining monetary policy:● GDP growth & U.S. Unemployment● Inflation (Seeking price stability)● FED ending Quantitative Easing
Recommended Characteristics
Interest Rate Declining so far but will drift upwards in 2015 negatively impact treasury bonds
Macro-economic Conditions Oil prices will remain low in short term U.S Government support credit risk and limit increase in credit spreads, lower default risk Moderate Growth in the U.S. economy European recession and uncertainty in emerging markets
Recommended Characteristics
Features of Bond Short-term Short duration Corporate High Yield High Credit Spread European Bonds high risk
Reasons Less affected by rising rates Default risk hold outSince we recommend short duration bonds with high credit spreads, we position the interest rate on the left end of the yield curve.
International Bond Market Conditions
Emerging Country 10yr Bond Yields:B - Brazil: 12.3%R - Russia: 14.0% (Inverted Yield Curve)I - India: 7.8%C - China: 3.6%Germany Bund: 0.5%Japan JGB: 0.28%
Consider:Buy Brazil Corporate Bonds - Short duration (Hedge all currency exposure)Also consider short duration frontier market corporate bonds
Portfolio Investment Groups
5-Year US Treasury - IEI
Investment Grade Corporate ETF - LQD
Corporate Investment Grade
HSBC, P&G
High Yield Corporate ETF - HYG
Emerging Market Corporate ETF - CEMB
Developed Market Corporate ETF- PICB
MBS ETF - VMBS
Cash
Portfolio Investment Groups
Bond features ranked by risk Initial allocation compared to:
AGG Benchmark PSDTX – Putnam Short Duration Income Fund OGLVX – JP Morgan Short Duration Bond A
ETF advantages over Mutual Funds Lower operating expenses Higher liquidity – Active Management More precise allocation
Optimized allocation with Excel Solver Portfolio yield close to AGG yield
Weight Breakdown
TREASURY: 10% < 31% (AGG) – Seeking far less exposure to interest rate risk than the benchmark
CORPORATE: 40% > 19.4% (AGG) - Seeking double the exposure than the benchmark because less tied to interest rates and more on company fundamentals
INTERNATIONAL: 10% > 7.1% (AGG) - Seeking more emerging market exposure due to high growth rates matched with high yield/coupons and currently trades at a discount
MBS: 25% = 25% (AGG) - Seeking similar exposure to the MBS market due to high yield, more safety because collateralized, no price premium, and continuing recovery of the housing market
CASH: 15% < 17% (AGG) - We want to put slightly less cash on the sidelines and more in assets with a yield
Portfolio - ETFs
US Treasury - IEI (iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond)Duration - 4.56yrs Credit - AA Yield - 1.20%Performance:
Portfolio - ETFs
Investment grade corporates - LQD (iShares iBoxx $ Invst Grade Crp Bond)Duration - 7.75yrs Credit - BBB Yield - 3.29%Performance:
Portfolio - ETFs
High Yield Corporate - HYG( iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd)
Duration - 4.23yrs Credit - B Yield - 5.66%Performance:
Portfolio - ETFs
Emerging MKT Coporates –CEMB (iShares Emerging Mrkts Corporate Bond)Duration - 5.51yrs Credit - BB Yield - 4.24%Performance:
Portfolio - ETFs
Developed MKT Coporates - PICB ( PowerShares International Corp Bd ETF)
Duration- 6.91yrs Credit- A Yield- 2.69%Performance:
Portfolio - ETFs
MBS - VMBS ( Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF)
Duration- 4.72yrs Credit- AAA Yield- 1.58%
Performance
Individual Securities
INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS
COMPANY: HSBC Bank (U.K.) DESCRIPTION: Worlds 2nd Largest BankSECTOR: FinancialsCOUPON: 5.1% (Fixed Coupon)YTM: 2.53%MATURE DATE: 04/05/2021DURATION: 5.3 YRSPRICE: $114.6 (14% Premium)CALLABLE: No
Individual Securities
INVESTMENT GRADE CORPORATE BONDS
COMPANY: Procter & Gamble (U.S.)DESCRIPTION: Large multinational consumer goods manufacturerSECTOR: Consumer DiscretionaryCOUPON: 5.1% (Fixed Coupon)YTM: 5.1%MATURE DATE: 10/24/2017DURATION: 2.4 YRSPRICE: $100.00 (No Premium)CALLABLE: No
Portfolio PerformanceAGG
Benchmark
Treasury IEI 1.20% 10% 30.9% $ 101.20 4.56 4.82 0.12%Corporate 40% 19.4%
Invest-grade LQD 3.29% 14% $ 111.88 7.75 12.18 0.46%
Indiv1 HSBC 5.10% 2% $ 114.70 5.3 6 0.10%
Indiv2 P&G 5.10% 4% $ 100.00 2.4 2.9 0.20%
High-yield HYG 5.66% 20% $ 103.07 4.23 4.66 1.13%
International 10% 7.1%Emerging CEMB 4.24% 5% 0.9% $ 99.23 5.51 7.63 0.21%Developed PICB 2.69% 5% 6.2% $ 100.22 6.91 8.94 0.14%MBS VMBS 1.58% 25% 25.9% $ 100.00 4.72 6.8 0.40%Cash 0% 15% 17.1%
Total 100%
Portfolio Average $ 102.66 5.17 6.74 2.76%AGG Average 107.83$ 5.29 15.74 2.27%
MaturityWeighted
yieldCategory Name Yield Percentage Price Duration