© 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited

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Chapter 9Chapter 9

Behavioural Finance Behavioural Finance and the and the

Psychology of InvestingPsychology of Investing

• Introduction to Behavioural Introduction to Behavioural FinanceFinance

• Prospect TheoryProspect Theory• OverconfidenceOverconfidence• Misperceiving RandomnessMisperceiving Randomness• Sentiment-Based Risk and Sentiment-Based Risk and

Limits to ArbitrageLimits to Arbitrage• Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis

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Behavioral Finance, Introduction.Behavioral Finance, Introduction.

““The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.” The investor’s chief problem, and even his worst enemy, is likely to be himself.”

-Benjamin Graham -Benjamin Graham

““There are three factors that influence the market: Fear, Greed, and Greed.” There are three factors that influence the market: Fear, Greed, and Greed.” -Market folklore -Market folklore

Sooner or later, you are going to make an investment decision that Sooner or later, you are going to make an investment decision that winds up costing you a lot of money.winds up costing you a lot of money.

Why is this going to happen? Why is this going to happen? You made a sound decision, but you are “unlucky.”You made a sound decision, but you are “unlucky.” You made a bad decision—one that could have been avoided. You made a bad decision—one that could have been avoided.

The beginning of investment wisdom:The beginning of investment wisdom: Learn to recognize circumstances leading to poor decisions.Learn to recognize circumstances leading to poor decisions. Then, you will reduce the damage from investment blunders.Then, you will reduce the damage from investment blunders.

© 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited

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Behavioral Finance, Definition.Behavioral Finance, Definition.

Behavioral FinanceBehavioral Finance The area of research that attempts to The area of research that attempts to understand and explain how reasoning errors influence understand and explain how reasoning errors influence investor decisions and market prices.investor decisions and market prices.

Much of behavioral finance research stems from the research Much of behavioral finance research stems from the research in the area of cognitive psychology.in the area of cognitive psychology. Cognitive psychologyCognitive psychology: the study of how people (including investors) : the study of how people (including investors)

think, reason, and make decisions.think, reason, and make decisions. Reasoning errors are often called cognitive errors.Reasoning errors are often called cognitive errors.

Some people believe that cognitive (reasoning) errors made Some people believe that cognitive (reasoning) errors made by investors will cause market inefficiencies.by investors will cause market inefficiencies.

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Economic Conditions that Lead to Market Economic Conditions that Lead to Market Efficiency Efficiency

1)1) Investor rationalityInvestor rationality

2)2) Independent deviations from rationalityIndependent deviations from rationality

3)3) Arbitrage Arbitrage For a market to be For a market to be inefficientinefficient, all three conditions must be , all three conditions must be

absent. That is, absent. That is, it must be that many, many investors make irrational investment it must be that many, many investors make irrational investment

decisions, decisions, andand the collective irrationality of these investors leads to an overly the collective irrationality of these investors leads to an overly

optimistic or pessimistic market situation, optimistic or pessimistic market situation, andand this situation cannot be corrected via arbitrage by rational, well-this situation cannot be corrected via arbitrage by rational, well-

capitalized investors. capitalized investors.

Whether these conditions can all be absent is the subject of a Whether these conditions can all be absent is the subject of a raging debate among financial market researchers.raging debate among financial market researchers.

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Prospect Theory.Prospect Theory. Prospect theoryProspect theory provides an alternative to classical, rational economic provides an alternative to classical, rational economic

decision-making. decision-making. The foundation of prospect theory: investors are much more The foundation of prospect theory: investors are much more

distressed by prospective losses than they are happy about distressed by prospective losses than they are happy about prospective gains.prospective gains. Researchers have found that a typical investor considers the pain of a $1 Researchers have found that a typical investor considers the pain of a $1

loss to be about loss to be about twicetwice as great as the pleasure received from the gain of $1. as great as the pleasure received from the gain of $1. Also, researchers have found that investors respond in different ways to Also, researchers have found that investors respond in different ways to

identicalidentical situations. situations. The difference depends on whether the situation is presented in terms of The difference depends on whether the situation is presented in terms of

losses or in terms of gains.losses or in terms of gains. Investors tend to be risk-averse with regard to gains but risk taking when it Investors tend to be risk-averse with regard to gains but risk taking when it

comes to losses.comes to losses. Three major judgment errors consistent with the predictions of prospect theory.Three major judgment errors consistent with the predictions of prospect theory.

Frame Dependence Mental Accounting The House Money Effect

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Frame DependenceFrame Dependence If an investment problem is presented in two different (but really If an investment problem is presented in two different (but really

equivalent) ways, investors often make inconsistent choices.equivalent) ways, investors often make inconsistent choices. That is, how a problem is described, or framed, seems to matter to people. That is, how a problem is described, or framed, seems to matter to people. Some people believe that frames are transparent. Are they?Some people believe that frames are transparent. Are they? Try this: Jot down your answers in the following two scenarios.Try this: Jot down your answers in the following two scenarios. Scenario One. Scenario One. Suppose we give you $1,000. Suppose we give you $1,000.

Then, you have the following choice to make: Then, you have the following choice to make: A. You can receive another $500 for sure.B. You can flip a fair coin. If the coin-flip comes up “heads,” you get another $1,000, but if it comes up “tails,” you get nothing.

Scenario Two. Scenario Two. Suppose we give you $2,000. Suppose we give you $2,000. Then, you have the following choice to make:Then, you have the following choice to make:

A. You can lose $500 for sure.B. You can flip a fair coin. If the coin-flip comes up “heads,” you lose another $1,000, but if it comes up “tails,” you lose nothing.

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Frame DependenceFrame Dependence Did you: choose option A in the first scenario and choose option B in the Did you: choose option A in the first scenario and choose option B in the

second scenario?second scenario? If you did, you are guilty of focusing on gains and losses, and not paying If you did, you are guilty of focusing on gains and losses, and not paying

attention to what is important—the impact on your wealth.attention to what is important—the impact on your wealth. However, you are not alone. However, you are not alone.

About 85 % of the people who are presented with the first scenario choose option A.About 85 % of the people who are presented with the first scenario choose option A. About 70 % of the people who are presented with the second scenario choose option B About 70 % of the people who are presented with the second scenario choose option B

But, the two scenarios are actually identical. In each scenario:But, the two scenarios are actually identical. In each scenario: You end up with $1,500 for sure if you pick option A. You end up with a 50-50 chance of either $1,000 or $2,000 if you pick option B. So, you should pick the same option in both scenarios.

Which option you prefer is up to you.Which option you prefer is up to you. But, if you are focusing on wealth, you should never pick option A in one But, if you are focusing on wealth, you should never pick option A in one

scenario and option B in the other. scenario and option B in the other. The reason people do is that the phrasing, or framing, of the question causes The reason people do is that the phrasing, or framing, of the question causes

people to answer the questions differently.people to answer the questions differently.

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Mental Accounting and Loss Aversion.Mental Accounting and Loss Aversion. Mental AccountingMental Accounting: Associating a stock with its purchase price.: Associating a stock with its purchase price. If you are engaging in mental accounting:If you are engaging in mental accounting:

You find it is difficult to sell a stock at a price lower than your You find it is difficult to sell a stock at a price lower than your purchase price. If you sell a stock at a loss:purchase price. If you sell a stock at a loss:

It may be hard for you to think that purchasing the stock in the first place It may be hard for you to think that purchasing the stock in the first place was correct. was correct.

You may feel this way even if the decision to buy was actually a very good You may feel this way even if the decision to buy was actually a very good decision. decision.

A further complication of mental accounting is A further complication of mental accounting is loss aversion.loss aversion. Loss AversionLoss Aversion: A reluctance to sell investments after they have fallen : A reluctance to sell investments after they have fallen

in value. Also known as the “breakeven” effect or “disposition” in value. Also known as the “breakeven” effect or “disposition” effect.effect.

If you suffer from Loss Aversion, you will think that if you can just If you suffer from Loss Aversion, you will think that if you can just somehow “get even,” you will be able to sell the stock.somehow “get even,” you will be able to sell the stock.

If you suffer from Loss Aversion, it is sometimes said that you have If you suffer from Loss Aversion, it is sometimes said that you have “get-evenitis.” “get-evenitis.”

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Do You Suffer from “Get-Evenitis?”Do You Suffer from “Get-Evenitis?”

Consider the following two investments:Consider the following two investments:Investment One. A year ago, you bought shares in Fama Enterprises for $40 per share. Today, these shares are worth $20 each. Investment Two. A year ago, you bought shares in French Company for $5 per share. Today, these shares are worth $20 each.

What will you do? Will you: What will you do? Will you: ((1) sell one of these stocks; 1) sell one of these stocks; (2) sell both of these stocks; (2) sell both of these stocks; (3) hold one of these stocks; or, (3) hold one of these stocks; or, (4) hold both of these stocks?(4) hold both of these stocks?

Suppose you are considering a new investment in Fama EnterprisesSuppose you are considering a new investment in Fama Enterprises . . Does your rational analysis say that it is reasonable to buy shares at $20? Does your rational analysis say that it is reasonable to buy shares at $20?

If the rational answer is no, then you should sell. If the rational answer is no, then you should sell. If the rational answer is yes, then you do not suffer from loss aversion. If the rational answer is yes, then you do not suffer from loss aversion.

However, if you argued to yourself that if shares in Fama Enterprises However, if you argued to yourself that if shares in Fama Enterprises were a good buy at $40, then they must be a were a good buy at $40, then they must be a stealsteal at $20, you probably at $20, you probably have a raging case of loss aversion. have a raging case of loss aversion.

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Do You Suffer from “Get-Evenitis?”Do You Suffer from “Get-Evenitis?”

There are Two Important Lessons from this Example.There are Two Important Lessons from this Example. Lesson OneLesson One:: The The marketmarket says that shares in Fama Enterprises are worth says that shares in Fama Enterprises are worth

$20. The $20. The marketmarket does not care that you paid $40 a year ago. does not care that you paid $40 a year ago. Lesson TwoLesson Two:: You You should not care about your purchase price of Fama should not care about your purchase price of Fama

Enterprises. Enterprises. YouYou must evaluate your shares at their current price. must evaluate your shares at their current price.

How about the shares in French Company?How about the shares in French Company? Once again, the lessons are the same. Once again, the lessons are the same. The market says that French Company shares are worth $20 today. The market says that French Company shares are worth $20 today. The fact that you paid $5 a year ago is not relevant.The fact that you paid $5 a year ago is not relevant.

Get-Evenitis can be destructive. Famous example: Nicholas Get-Evenitis can be destructive. Famous example: Nicholas Leeson causing the collapse of the 233-year-old Barings Bank.Leeson causing the collapse of the 233-year-old Barings Bank.

Note : For both investments, there will be tax effects. Your careful analysis should acknowledge the existence of taxes and transaction fees, and their impact on your net sale proceeds.

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The House Money EffectThe House Money Effect

Las Vegas casinos have found that gamblers are far more likely to Las Vegas casinos have found that gamblers are far more likely to take big risks with money that they have won from the casino (i.e., take big risks with money that they have won from the casino (i.e., “house money”). “house money”).

Also, casinos have found that gamblers are not as upset about losing Also, casinos have found that gamblers are not as upset about losing

house money as they are about losing their own gambling money.house money as they are about losing their own gambling money. It may seem natural for you to separate your money into two It may seem natural for you to separate your money into two

buckets:buckets: Your very precious money earned through hard work, sweat, and sacrifice.Your very precious money earned through hard work, sweat, and sacrifice. Your less precious windfall money (i.e., house money).Your less precious windfall money (i.e., house money).

But, this separation is plainly irrational.But, this separation is plainly irrational. Any dollar you have buys the same amount of goods and services.Any dollar you have buys the same amount of goods and services. The buying power is the same for “your money” and for your “house money.”The buying power is the same for “your money” and for your “house money.”

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The House Money EffectThe House Money Effect Let us return to the shares of Fama Enterprises andLet us return to the shares of Fama Enterprises and French CompanyFrench Company. . Suppose shares in both were to decline to $15. Suppose shares in both were to decline to $15. You might feel very differently about the decline depending on which You might feel very differently about the decline depending on which

stock you looked at. stock you looked at. With Fama Enterprises, the decline makes a bad situation even worse. With Fama Enterprises, the decline makes a bad situation even worse.

Now you are down $25 per share on your investment.Now you are down $25 per share on your investment. On the other hand, with French Company, you only “give back” some On the other hand, with French Company, you only “give back” some

of your “paper profit.” You are still way ahead. of your “paper profit.” You are still way ahead. Thinking this way means that you are guilty of playing with house money. Thinking this way means that you are guilty of playing with house money. Whether you lose money from your original investment or lose money Whether you lose money from your original investment or lose money

from your investment gains is from your investment gains is irrelevantirrelevant. . There are two important investment lessons here:There are two important investment lessons here:

Lesson One. Lesson One. There are no “paper profits.” Your profits are yours.There are no “paper profits.” Your profits are yours. Lesson Two. Lesson Two. All your money is your money. You should not separate All your money is your money. You should not separate

your money into bundles labeled “my money” and “house money.” your money into bundles labeled “my money” and “house money.”

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Overconfidence and Overconfidence and Portfolio Diversification Portfolio Diversification A serious error in judgment you can make as an investor is to be A serious error in judgment you can make as an investor is to be

overconfident. overconfident. We are all overconfident about our abilities in many areas.We are all overconfident about our abilities in many areas. How does overconfidence affect investment decisions?How does overconfidence affect investment decisions? Investors tend to invest too heavily in shares of the company for Investors tend to invest too heavily in shares of the company for

which they work. which they work. This loyalty can be very bad financially.This loyalty can be very bad financially.

Your earning power (income) also depends on this company.Your earning power (income) also depends on this company. Your retirement nest-egg also depends on this company. Your retirement nest-egg also depends on this company.

Another examples of the lack of diversification is investing too Another examples of the lack of diversification is investing too heavily in the stocks of local companies.heavily in the stocks of local companies. Perhaps you know someone personally who works there.Perhaps you know someone personally who works there. Perhaps you read about them in your local paper.Perhaps you read about them in your local paper. Basically, you are unduly confident that you have a high degree of Basically, you are unduly confident that you have a high degree of

knowledge about local companies.knowledge about local companies.

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Overconfidence and Trading Frequency Overconfidence and Trading Frequency

If you are overconfident about your investment skill, it is likely If you are overconfident about your investment skill, it is likely that you will trade too much. that you will trade too much.

Researchers have found that investors who make relatively more Researchers have found that investors who make relatively more trades have lower returns than investors who trade less frequently. trades have lower returns than investors who trade less frequently.

Researchers have found that the average household earned an Researchers have found that the average household earned an annual return of 16.4 percent. annual return of 16.4 percent.

Researchers have found that households that traded the most Researchers have found that households that traded the most earned an annual return of only 11.4 percent.earned an annual return of only 11.4 percent.

The moral is clear: The moral is clear: Excessive trading is hazardous to your wealth.

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Is Overtrading “a Guy Thing?”Is Overtrading “a Guy Thing?”

Psychologists have found that men are more overconfident than Psychologists have found that men are more overconfident than women in the area of finance. So, women in the area of finance. So, Do men trade more than women? Do men trade more than women? Do portfolios of men under-perform the portfolios of women?Do portfolios of men under-perform the portfolios of women?

Researchers show that the answer to both questions is yes. Researchers show that the answer to both questions is yes. Men trade about 50 percent more than women. Men trade about 50 percent more than women.

Researchers show that both men and women reduce their portfolio Researchers show that both men and women reduce their portfolio returns when they trade excessively.returns when they trade excessively. The portfolio return for men is 94 basis points lower than portfolio returns for The portfolio return for men is 94 basis points lower than portfolio returns for

women.women. The portfolio return for The portfolio return for singlesingle men is 144 basis points lower than the portfolio return men is 144 basis points lower than the portfolio return

for for singlesingle women. women.

Accounting for the effects of marital status, age, and income, Accounting for the effects of marital status, age, and income, researchers also show that men invest in riskier positions.researchers also show that men invest in riskier positions.

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Misperceiving Randomness Misperceiving Randomness and Overreacting to Chance Eventsand Overreacting to Chance Events

Cognitive psychologists have discovered that the human mind is a pattern-seeking Cognitive psychologists have discovered that the human mind is a pattern-seeking device. device.

Humans conclude that there are causal factors or patterns at work behind sequences Humans conclude that there are causal factors or patterns at work behind sequences of events even when the events are truly random. of events even when the events are truly random.

The representativeness heuristic: Concluding that there are causal factors at work : Concluding that there are causal factors at work behind random sequences. Or, if something is random, it should look random. behind random sequences. Or, if something is random, it should look random.

But, what does random look like? Suppose we flip a coin twenty times and write But, what does random look like? Suppose we flip a coin twenty times and write down whether we get a “head” or a “tail.” Then, we do it all over again. The results down whether we get a “head” or a “tail.” Then, we do it all over again. The results of our two sets of twenty flips are:of our two sets of twenty flips are:

1st Twenty: 1st Twenty: T T T H T T T H T T H H H T H H T H H HT T T H T T T H T T H H H T H H T H H H 2nd Twenty: 2nd Twenty: T H T H H T T H T H T H T T H T H T H HT H T H H T T H T H T H T T H T H T H H

Do these sequences of heads and tails both look random to you? Do these sequences of heads and tails both look random to you? Most people would say that the 1Most people would say that the 1stst and the 2nd Twenty somehow look different and the 2nd Twenty somehow look different

Both are random sequences.Both are random sequences. Both have ten heads and ten tails.Both have ten heads and ten tails.

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A Coin Flipping ExperimentA Coin Flipping Experiment

Do you think the line labeled “1st Twenty” has a pattern to it, but Do you think the line labeled “1st Twenty” has a pattern to it, but the line labeled “2nd Twenty” appears to be random? the line labeled “2nd Twenty” appears to be random?

If so, your mind saw a pattern in a random sequence of coin If so, your mind saw a pattern in a random sequence of coin flips.flips.

Figure 9.1

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The Hot-Hand FallacyThe Hot-Hand Fallacy Suppose we look at the recent shooting by two basketball Suppose we look at the recent shooting by two basketball

players named LeBron and Shaquille. players named LeBron and Shaquille. Assume both of these players make half of their shots. Assume both of these players make half of their shots.

LeBron: LeBron: has just madehas just made two shots in a row. two shots in a row. Shaquille: Shaquille: has just missedhas just missed two shots in a row. two shots in a row.

Researchers have found that if they ask Researchers have found that if they ask basketball fansbasketball fans which which player has the better chance of making their next shot:player has the better chance of making their next shot: 91 out of 100 will say LeBron.91 out of 100 will say LeBron. They say this because they think LeBron has a “hot-hand.”They say this because they think LeBron has a “hot-hand.”

But, researchers have found that the “hot hand” is an illusion. But, researchers have found that the “hot hand” is an illusion. Players do not deviate much from their long-run shooting averages.Players do not deviate much from their long-run shooting averages. However, fans, players, announcers, and coaches think that they do. However, fans, players, announcers, and coaches think that they do.

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The Hot-Hand FallacyThe Hot-Hand Fallacy Cognitive psychologists have studied the shooting percentage of Cognitive psychologists have studied the shooting percentage of

one NBA team for a season and found:one NBA team for a season and found:

A detailed analysis of the shooting data reveals that, statistically A detailed analysis of the shooting data reveals that, statistically speaking, all shooting percentages in this table are the “same.”speaking, all shooting percentages in this table are the “same.”

It is true that basketball players shoot in streaks. But, these steaks It is true that basketball players shoot in streaks. But, these steaks are within bounds for long-run shooting percentages.are within bounds for long-run shooting percentages.

Table 9.2

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The Hot-Hand FallacyThe Hot-Hand Fallacy

It is an illusion that basketball players are either “hot” or “cold.”It is an illusion that basketball players are either “hot” or “cold.” I If f you believe in the “hot hand,” you will likely reject this fact you believe in the “hot hand,” you will likely reject this fact because you “know better” from watching shooters.because you “know better” from watching shooters. You are being fooled by randomness—randomness often appears in clustersYou are being fooled by randomness—randomness often appears in clusters ..

Clustering Illusion: Our human belief that random events that Our human belief that random events that occur in clusters are not really random. occur in clusters are not really random. Example: If a fair coin is flipped 20 times, there is about a 50 Example: If a fair coin is flipped 20 times, there is about a 50 percent chance of flipping four heads in a row. percent chance of flipping four heads in a row. If you flip four heads in a row, do you have a “hot hand” at coin flippingIf you flip four heads in a row, do you have a “hot hand” at coin flipping??

Mutual fund investing and the clustering illusion. Mutual fund investing and the clustering illusion. Every year, funds that have had exceptionally good performance Every year, funds that have had exceptionally good performance

receive large inflows of money. receive large inflows of money. There is a universal disclaimer: “Past performance is no There is a universal disclaimer: “Past performance is no

guarantee of future results.” Nonetheless, investors chase past guarantee of future results.” Nonetheless, investors chase past returns.returns.

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The Gambler’s FallacyThe Gambler’s Fallacy Gambler’s Fallacy: Assuming that a departure for what : Assuming that a departure for what

occurs on average will be corrected in the short run. occurs on average will be corrected in the short run. Another way to think about the gambler’s fallacy: Another way to think about the gambler’s fallacy:

because an event has not happened recently, it has because an event has not happened recently, it has become “overdue” and is more likely to occur. become “overdue” and is more likely to occur.

Example: The odds on a US Roulette table never change. Example: The odds on a US Roulette table never change. For each spin:For each spin:

There is an 18 in 38 chance for a red number to “hit”There is an 18 in 38 chance for a red number to “hit” There is an 18 in 38 chance for a black number to “hit”There is an 18 in 38 chance for a black number to “hit” There is a 2 in 38 chance for a green number to “hit”There is a 2 in 38 chance for a green number to “hit”

You suffer from the Gambler’s Fallacy if you think that it is You suffer from the Gambler’s Fallacy if you think that it is more likely for a black number to “hit” after a series of red more likely for a black number to “hit” after a series of red numbers have hit.numbers have hit.

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Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to ArbitrageSentiment Based Risk and Limits to Arbitrage

The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) does not require every The efficient markets hypothesis (EMH) does not require every investor to be rational. investor to be rational.

All that EMH requires is that there are at least some smart and All that EMH requires is that there are at least some smart and well-financed investors. well-financed investors. These investors are prepared to buy and sell to take advantage of any These investors are prepared to buy and sell to take advantage of any

mispricing in the marketplace. mispricing in the marketplace. This activity is what keeps markets efficient.This activity is what keeps markets efficient.

Sometimes, however, a problem arises in this context.Sometimes, however, a problem arises in this context. Limits to Arbitrage: The notion that, under certain The notion that, under certain

circumstances, it may not possible for rational, well-capitalized circumstances, it may not possible for rational, well-capitalized traders to correct a mispricing, at least not quickly. traders to correct a mispricing, at least not quickly.

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Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to ArbitrageArbitrage

Strategies designed to eliminate mis-pricings are often risky, Strategies designed to eliminate mis-pricings are often risky, costly, or restricted. Three important problems are:costly, or restricted. Three important problems are:

Firm-Specific Risk (the most obvious risk).Firm-Specific Risk (the most obvious risk). Suppose you believe that GM’s stock price is too low, so you buy. Suppose you believe that GM’s stock price is too low, so you buy. Then, some unanticipated bad news drives GM’s stock price lower. Then, some unanticipated bad news drives GM’s stock price lower.

Noise Trader Risk (also known as sentiment-based risk)Noise Trader Risk (also known as sentiment-based risk) Noise TraderNoise Trader: Someone whose trades are not based on information or : Someone whose trades are not based on information or

financially meaningful analysis. financially meaningful analysis. Noise traders could act “together” to worsen a mis-pricing. Noise traders could act “together” to worsen a mis-pricing. Noise trader risk is important because the worsening of a mis-pricing could Noise trader risk is important because the worsening of a mis-pricing could

force the arbitrageur to liquidate early (and sustain steep losses). force the arbitrageur to liquidate early (and sustain steep losses). If noise trader risk exists, then this risk is another source of risk beyond If noise trader risk exists, then this risk is another source of risk beyond

systematic risk and unsystematic risk.systematic risk and unsystematic risk.

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Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to ArbitrageArbitrage

Implementation Costs: These costs include transaction costs such as : These costs include transaction costs such as bid-ask spreads, brokerage commissions, and margin interest.bid-ask spreads, brokerage commissions, and margin interest. In addition, there might be some short-sale constraints. In addition, there might be some short-sale constraints.

One short-sale constraint arises when there are not enough shares to borrow.One short-sale constraint arises when there are not enough shares to borrow. This means the arbitrageur cannot take a large short position. This means the arbitrageur cannot take a large short position.

Another short-sale constraint stems from the legal restriction that many money Another short-sale constraint stems from the legal restriction that many money managers are not allowed to sell short.managers are not allowed to sell short. pension fund managerspension fund managers mutual fund managers mutual fund managers

When firm specific risk, noise trader risk, or implementation costs are When firm specific risk, noise trader risk, or implementation costs are present, a mispricing may persist because arbitrage is too risky or too present, a mispricing may persist because arbitrage is too risky or too costly. costly.

Collectively, these risks and costs create barriers, or limits, to Collectively, these risks and costs create barriers, or limits, to arbitrage. arbitrage.

How important these limits are is difficult to say, but we do know that How important these limits are is difficult to say, but we do know that mispricings occur, at least on occasion.mispricings occur, at least on occasion.

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Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to ArbitrageArbitrage

In 1907, Royal Dutch of the Netherlands and Shell of the UK In 1907, Royal Dutch of the Netherlands and Shell of the UK agreed to merge and pay dividends on a 60-40 basis. agreed to merge and pay dividends on a 60-40 basis.

So, if the stock prices of Royal Dutch and Shell are not in a So, if the stock prices of Royal Dutch and Shell are not in a 60-40 ratio, there is a potential arbitrage opportunity.60-40 ratio, there is a potential arbitrage opportunity.

The next slide contains a plot of the daily deviations from the The next slide contains a plot of the daily deviations from the 60-40 ratio of the Royal Dutch price to the Shell price. 60-40 ratio of the Royal Dutch price to the Shell price. If the prices are in a 60-40 ratio, there is no deviation. If the prices are in a 60-40 ratio, there is no deviation. If there is a positive deviation, the price of Royal Dutch is too high. If there is a positive deviation, the price of Royal Dutch is too high. If there is a negative deviation, the price of Royal Dutch is too low. If there is a negative deviation, the price of Royal Dutch is too low.

As you can see, there have been large (and persistent) As you can see, there have been large (and persistent) deviations from the 60-40 ratio.deviations from the 60-40 ratio.

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Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to Sentiment Based Risk and Limits to ArbitrageArbitrage

Figure 9.3

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Technical AnalysisTechnical Analysis Many investors try to predict future stock price movements Many investors try to predict future stock price movements

based on investor sentiment, errors in judgment, and/or based on investor sentiment, errors in judgment, and/or historical prices.historical prices.

These investors are using These investors are using technical analysistechnical analysis.. Technical analysisTechnical analysis differs significantly from differs significantly from fundamental fundamental

analysisanalysis.. Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis does not rely Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis does not rely

on traditional stock valuation techniques.on traditional stock valuation techniques.

Technical analysts essentially search for bullish (positive) and bearish (negative) signals about stock prices or market direction.

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Why Does Technical Analysis Continue to Thrive?Why Does Technical Analysis Continue to Thrive?

Proponents of the EMHdo not believe that technical analysis can Proponents of the EMHdo not believe that technical analysis can help investors predict future stock prices.help investors predict future stock prices.

In this Internet and computer age, technical analysis is actually In this Internet and computer age, technical analysis is actually thriving. Why?thriving. Why?

One possible reason: investors can derive thousands of successful One possible reason: investors can derive thousands of successful technical analysis systems by using historical security prices. technical analysis systems by using historical security prices. Past security prices easily fit into a wide variety of technical systems. Past security prices easily fit into a wide variety of technical systems. Technicians can continuously tinker and find methods that fit past prices. Technicians can continuously tinker and find methods that fit past prices. This process is known as “backtesting.” (But, investment success is all about This process is known as “backtesting.” (But, investment success is all about

future prices.)future prices.) Another possible reason: technical analysis simply sometimes Another possible reason: technical analysis simply sometimes

works. works. Again, there are a large number of possible technical analysis systems.Again, there are a large number of possible technical analysis systems. Many of them will appear to work in the short run.Many of them will appear to work in the short run.

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The Market Sentiment IndexThe Market Sentiment Index Market SentimentMarket Sentiment The prevailing mood among investors The prevailing mood among investors

about the future outlook for an individual security for the about the future outlook for an individual security for the market. market. Market sentimentalists often believe that once 80% of the investors are Market sentimentalists often believe that once 80% of the investors are

bullish or bearish, a “consensus” has been reached. bullish or bearish, a “consensus” has been reached. Once a consensus is reached, market sentimentalists believe there is an Once a consensus is reached, market sentimentalists believe there is an

impending turn in the direction of the market. impending turn in the direction of the market. One way to measure market sentiment is to ask investors whether they One way to measure market sentiment is to ask investors whether they

think the market is going up or down. think the market is going up or down. 50 investors are asked whether they are “bullish” or “bearish” 50 investors are asked whether they are “bullish” or “bearish”

on the market over the next month—20 say “bearish.”on the market over the next month—20 say “bearish.”

The Market Sentiment Index (MSI) can then be calculated as:The Market Sentiment Index (MSI) can then be calculated as:

0.40.2030

20 MSI

Investors Bearish of Number Investors Bullish of Number

Investors Bearish of Number MSI

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The Market Sentiment IndexThe Market Sentiment Index The MSI has a maximum value of 1.00, which occurs when The MSI has a maximum value of 1.00, which occurs when

every investor you ask is bearish on the market.every investor you ask is bearish on the market.

The MSI has a minimum value of 0.00, which occurs when The MSI has a minimum value of 0.00, which occurs when every investor you ask is bullish on the market.every investor you ask is bullish on the market.

This saying is handy when you are trying to remember how to This saying is handy when you are trying to remember how to use the MSI: “use the MSI: “When the MSI is highWhen the MSI is high, it, it is time to buyis time to buy; ; when when the MSI is low, it is time to gothe MSI is low, it is time to go.” .”

Note that there is not a theory to guide investors as to what Note that there is not a theory to guide investors as to what level of the MSI is “high,” and what level is “low.” level of the MSI is “high,” and what level is “low.”

This lack of precise guidance is a common problem with a This lack of precise guidance is a common problem with a technical indicatortechnical indicator like the MSI.like the MSI.

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Dow TheoryDow Theory The Dow theory is a method that attempts to interpret and signal changes in the The Dow theory is a method that attempts to interpret and signal changes in the

stock market direction.stock market direction. Dates to turn of the 20Dates to turn of the 20thth century. century. Named after Charles Dow (co-founder of the Dow Jones Co.)Named after Charles Dow (co-founder of the Dow Jones Co.)

The Dow theory identifies three forces:The Dow theory identifies three forces: a primary direction or trend,a primary direction or trend, a secondary reaction or trend, anda secondary reaction or trend, and daily fluctuations.daily fluctuations.

The primary direction (bearish or bullish) reflects long-run direction of the marketThe primary direction (bearish or bullish) reflects long-run direction of the market Secondary reactions are departures from primary trend that may last several weeks Secondary reactions are departures from primary trend that may last several weeks

or months and eliminated by corrections (reversions to the primary direction)or months and eliminated by corrections (reversions to the primary direction) Daily fluctuations are essentially noise and are of no real importance.Daily fluctuations are essentially noise and are of no real importance. The basic purpose of the Dow Theory is to signal changes in the primary direction. The basic purpose of the Dow Theory is to signal changes in the primary direction.

To do this, two stock market averages, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) To do this, two stock market averages, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), are monitored. If one of these and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA), are monitored. If one of these departs from the primary trend, the movement is viewed as secondary. However, if departs from the primary trend, the movement is viewed as secondary. However, if a departure in one is followed by a departure in the other, then this is viewed as a a departure in one is followed by a departure in the other, then this is viewed as a confirmation confirmation that the primary trend has changed.that the primary trend has changed.

(The Trend is your Friend…)

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Elliott WavesElliott Waves Invented in the 1930’s by Ralph Nelson Elliott, A Dow Theorist. Invented in the 1930’s by Ralph Nelson Elliott, A Dow Theorist. Mr. Elliott’s theory was that repeating stock price patterns, which Mr. Elliott’s theory was that repeating stock price patterns, which

he called "waves," collectively expressed investor sentiment. he called "waves," collectively expressed investor sentiment. Mr. Elliott believe that by using sophisticated "wave counting" Mr. Elliott believe that by using sophisticated "wave counting"

techniques, a wave theorist could forecast market turns accurately.techniques, a wave theorist could forecast market turns accurately. The Elliott Wave Principle. The Elliott Wave Principle.

There is a repeating eight wave sequence. There is a repeating eight wave sequence. The first five waves are “impulse” waves.The first five waves are “impulse” waves. The next three-waves are a “corrective” sequence. The next three-waves are a “corrective” sequence. The basic Elliott Wave Theory gets very complicated because, The basic Elliott Wave Theory gets very complicated because,

under the Theory, each wave can subdivide into finer wave under the Theory, each wave can subdivide into finer wave patterns that are classified into a multitude of structures.patterns that are classified into a multitude of structures.

Notwithstanding the complex nature of the Elliott Wave Notwithstanding the complex nature of the Elliott Wave Theory, it is still a widely-followed indicator.Theory, it is still a widely-followed indicator.

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Support and Resistance LevelsSupport and Resistance Levels A A support levelsupport level is a price or level below which a stock or the is a price or level below which a stock or the

market as a whole is unlikely to go.market as a whole is unlikely to go.

A A resistance levelresistance level is a price or level above which a stock or is a price or level above which a stock or the market as a whole is unlikely to rise.the market as a whole is unlikely to rise.

Support and resistance levels are “Support and resistance levels are “psychological barrierspsychological barriers:”:” bargain hunters help “support” the lower level.bargain hunters help “support” the lower level. profit takers “resist” the upper level.profit takers “resist” the upper level.

A “A “breakoutbreakout” occurs when a stock (or the market) passes ” occurs when a stock (or the market) passes through either a support or a resistance level.through either a support or a resistance level.

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Market HealthMarket Health

Figure 9.6

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Technical Indicators, NotesTechnical Indicators, Notes The “advance/decline line” shows, for some period, the The “advance/decline line” shows, for some period, the

cumulative difference between advancing and declining issues.cumulative difference between advancing and declining issues. A downward (upward) sloping line is considered a bearish A downward (upward) sloping line is considered a bearish

(bullish) signal(bullish) signal ““Closing arms” or “trin” (Closing arms” or “trin” (trtrading ading inindex) is the ratio of average dex) is the ratio of average

trading volume in declining issues to average trading volume in trading volume in declining issues to average trading volume in advancing issues. Using data from the “Previous Close:”advancing issues. Using data from the “Previous Close:”

Values greater (less) than 1 are considered bearish (bullish) Values greater (less) than 1 are considered bearish (bullish) because the indication is that declining (advancing) shares had because the indication is that declining (advancing) shares had heavier volume.heavier volume.

0.79480,278

377,759

0/1,955938,942,91

0/1,312495,620,06Arms

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Advance/Decline Line calculationAdvance/Decline Line calculation

Figure 9.3

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Relative StrengthRelative Strength Relative strength measures the performance of one measures the performance of one

investment relative to another.investment relative to another. Comparing stock A to stock B, through relative Comparing stock A to stock B, through relative

strength:strength:

MonthMonth

Stock AStock A

(4 Shares)(4 Shares)

Stock BStock B

(2 Shares)(2 Shares)

RelativeRelative

StrengthStrength

11 $100$100 $100$100 1.001.00

22 9696 9696 1.001.00

33 8888 9090 0.980.98

44 8888 8080 1.101.10

55 8080 7878 1.031.03

66 7676 7676 1.001.00

© 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited

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ChartingCharting

Technical analysts rely heavily on charts that show recent Technical analysts rely heavily on charts that show recent market prices.market prices.

Technical analysis is sometimes called Technical analysis is sometimes called “charting.”.” Technical analysts are often called “Technical analysts are often called “chartists.”.” Chartists study graphs (or charts) of past market prices (or Chartists study graphs (or charts) of past market prices (or

other information).other information). Chartists try to identify particular patterns known as chart Chartists try to identify particular patterns known as chart

formations.formations. Chart formations are thought to signal the direction of future Chart formations are thought to signal the direction of future

prices.prices.

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Charting: Open-High-Low-CloseCharting: Open-High-Low-Close

Figure 9.7

© 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited

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Charting: Price ChannelsCharting: Price ChannelsFigure 9.8

© 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited

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Charting: Head and ShouldersCharting: Head and ShouldersFigure 9.9

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Charting: Moving AveragesCharting: Moving Averages

Moving average chartsMoving average charts are average daily prices or index levels, are average daily prices or index levels, calculated using a fixed number of previous prices, updated daily.calculated using a fixed number of previous prices, updated daily.

Because daily price fluctuations are “smoothed out,” these charts Because daily price fluctuations are “smoothed out,” these charts are used to identify trends.are used to identify trends.

Example: Suppose the technical trader calculates a 15-day and a Example: Suppose the technical trader calculates a 15-day and a 50-day moving average of a stock price.50-day moving average of a stock price. If the 15-day crosses the 50-day from above, it is a bearish signal—time to If the 15-day crosses the 50-day from above, it is a bearish signal—time to

sell.sell. If the 15-day crosses the 50-day from below, it is a bullish signal—time to If the 15-day crosses the 50-day from below, it is a bullish signal—time to

buy.buy.

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Other Technical IndicatorsOther Technical Indicators

Fibonacci NumbersFibonacci Numbers: Looking for percentage “retracement” levels. : Looking for percentage “retracement” levels. The “odd-lot” indicator looks at whether odd-lot purchases are up The “odd-lot” indicator looks at whether odd-lot purchases are up

or down.or down. Followers of the “hemline” indicator claim that hemlines tend to Followers of the “hemline” indicator claim that hemlines tend to

rise in good times.rise in good times. The Super Bowl indicator forecasts the direction of the market The Super Bowl indicator forecasts the direction of the market

based on who wins the game.based on who wins the game. Two Conferences: the National Football Conference and the American Two Conferences: the National Football Conference and the American

Football Conference wins. Football Conference wins. A win by the National Football Conference (or one of the original members A win by the National Football Conference (or one of the original members

of the National Football League) is bullish.of the National Football League) is bullish.

© 2009 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Limited

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Useful Internet SitesUseful Internet Sites

www.behaviouralfinance.net (behavioral finance concepts) (behavioral finance concepts) www.thedowtheory.com (information about Dow theory) (information about Dow theory) www.elliottwave.com (information about the Elliott wave (information about the Elliott wave

principle)principle) www.stockcharts.com (select “Chart School”) (select “Chart School”) www.bigcharts.com (a wide variety of charts) (a wide variety of charts) www.incrediblecharts.com (also source for technical (also source for technical

indicators)indicators) www.psychonomics.com (see research section on behavioral (see research section on behavioral

finance and building portfolios)finance and building portfolios)