景气仍将持续 ——2008 下半年造纸行业投资策略
DESCRIPTION
景气仍将持续 ——2008 下半年造纸行业投资策略. 造纸行业分析师：杨春燕 电话 ： 63325888-6080 邮箱： [email protected]. 公司地址：东方国际金融广场 公司网址： www.dfzq.com.cn. 目录. 行业现状 未来 2-3 年预测 投资策略 上市公司推荐. 目录. 一、行业现状 当前行业运行特点 行业现状分析. 特点 1. 00-07 年行业产销增速均高于同期 GDP. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
2008 ——
www.dfzq.com.cn
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1988
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1989
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1992
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38041
38041
38034
38034
38034
38027
38027
38027
38020
38020
38020
38013
38013
38013
38006
38006
38006
37999
37999
37999
37992
37992
37992
37985
37985
37985
37978
37978
37978
37971
37971
37971
37964
37964
37964
37957
37957
37957
37950
37950
37950
37943
37943
37943
37936
37936
37936
37929
37929
37929
37922
37922
37922
37915
37915
37915
37908
37908
37908
37901
37901
37901
37894
37894
37894
37887
37887
37887
37880
37880
37880
37873
37873
37873
37866
37866
37866
37859
37859
37859
37852
37852
37852
37845
37845
37845
37838
37838
37838
37831
37831
37831
37824
37824
37824
37817
37817
37817
37810
37810
37810
37803
37803
37803
37796
37796
37796
37789
37789
37789
37782
37782
37782
37775
37775
37775
37768
37768
37768
37761
37761
37761
37754
37754
37754
37747
37747
37747
37740
37740
37740
37733
37733
37733
37726
37726
37726
37719
37719
37719
37712
37712
37712
37705
37705
37705
37698
37698
37698
37691
37691
37691
37684
37684
37684
37677
37677
37677
37670
37670
37670
37663
37663
37663
37656
37656
37656
37649
37649
37649
37642
37642
37642
37635
37635
37635
37628
37628
37628
37621
37621
37621
37614
37614
37614
37607
37607
37607
37600
37600
37600
37593
37593
37593
37586
37586
37586
37579
37579
37579
37572
37572
37572
Semichemical
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
35,169
35,962
36,564
38,100
37,692
38,398
38,054
38,056
38,536
39,026
38,701
38,643
35,159
35,866
36,686
38,208
37,641
38,106
38,054
38,056
38,536
39,026
38,701
38,643
89.50%
91.60%
92.70%
95.30%
92.80%
95.90%
93.30%
91.60%
93.00%
93.90%
92.80%
92.60%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
46,321
48,263
49,089
51,960
52,700
54,905
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
46,193
48,135
49,381
51,587
52,464
54,819
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
91.20%
92.60%
92.30%
94.80%
93.40%
95.10%
92.90%
91.10%
90.90%
92.30%
92.10%
91.20%
5(NORSCAN)
19 countries: Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina,
Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa, Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand
New Zealand, Japan, South Korea.
These countries represent 81% of world market pulp supply in 2006
2002-2012
Unit:000 tons
Semichemical
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
46,321
48,263
49,089
51,960
52,700
54,905
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
46,193
48,135
49,381
51,587
52,464
54,819
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
91.20%
92.60%
92.30%
94.80%
93.40%
95.10%
92.90%
91.10%
90.90%
92.30%
92.10%
91.20%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
46,321
48,263
49,089
51,960
52,700
54,905
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
46,193
48,135
49,381
51,587
52,464
54,819
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
91.20%
92.60%
92.30%
94.80%
93.40%
95.10%
92.90%
91.10%
90.90%
92.30%
92.10%
91.20%
5(NORSCAN)
19 countries: Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina,
Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa, Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand
New Zealand, Japan, South Korea.
These countries represent 81% of world market pulp supply in 2006
2002-2012
Unit:000 tons
50%
——
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
3800-8000
5000515
201020051038020051.381.1COD2005160140
2010200
——2008
35702006132249%8%
——
——
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
000488
0.5811
0.7433
0.8603
000815
0.3102
0.6639
1.0575
000820
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
002012
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
002067
0.2463
0.5472
0.8902
002078
1.0025
1.4404
1.8732
600069
0.4958
0.8117
1.0788
600103
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600163
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600235
0.0359
0.0697
0.1195
600308
1.0666
1.2862
1.5532
600356
0.0000
0.3344
0.4207
600419
ST
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600433
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600462
*ST
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600567
0.2878
0.0000
0.4370
600793
*ST
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600963
0.4294
0.8884
1.7787
600966
0.5975
1.0443
1.2007
——
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
——
2010600
3
1
300,000
170500
12,000
-
2#
250-450
300
80,000
50,000
-
1#
250-400
100,000
2004
12,000
DC
1#
230-600
10,000
25
13
1,414,000
1,000,000
230,000
20
2008
35
2008
75%
3.56H21%2010
0809EPS0.780.94EPS0.640.78
——
08/091.11.260.690.79
——
085040
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
086013080%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
04-0104-0504-0905-0105-0505-0906-0106-0506-0907-0107-0507-0908-0108-05
811
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20002001200220032004200520062007
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
www.dfzq.com.cn
200713.08%10.45%
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
“”
“”
071085NBSKEUNBSKUSBHKP81124.1%14.3%25.1%57.7%37.6%
081085NBSKEUNBSKUSBHKP8112.9%0%6.2%26.1%1.5%
811
Chart2
39583
39583
39583
39576
39576
39576
39568
39568
39568
39561
39561
39561
39555
39555
39555
39547
39547
39547
39540
39540
39540
39533
39533
39533
39526
39526
39526
39519
39519
39519
39512
39512
39512
39505
39505
39505
39498
39498
39498
39490
39490
39490
39483
39483
39483
39476
39476
39476
39469
39469
39469
39462
39462
39462
39455
39455
39455
39449
39449
39449
39443
39443
39443
39434
39434
39434
39427
39427
39427
39420
39420
39420
39413
39413
39413
39406
39406
39406
39399
39399
39399
39392
39392
39392
39385
39385
39385
39378
39378
39378
39371
39371
39371
39364
39364
39364
39357
39357
39357
39350
39350
39350
39343
39343
39343
39336
39336
39336
39329
39329
39329
39322
39322
39322
39315
39315
39315
39308
39308
39308
39301
39301
39301
39294
39294
39294
39287
39287
39287
39280
39280
39280
39273
39273
39273
39266
39266
39266
39259
39259
39259
39252
39252
39252
39245
39245
39245
39238
39238
39238
39231
39231
39231
39224
39224
39224
39217
39217
39217
39210
39210
39210
39203
39203
39203
39196
39196
39196
39189
39189
39189
39182
39182
39182
39175
39175
39175
39168
39168
39168
39161
39161
39161
39154
39154
39154
39147
39147
39147
39140
39140
39140
39133
39133
39133
39126
39126
39126
39119
39119
39119
39112
39112
39112
39105
39105
39105
39098
39098
39098
39091
39091
39091
39084
39084
39084
39077
39077
39077
39070
39070
39070
39063
39063
39063
39056
39056
39056
39049
39049
39049
39042
39042
39042
39035
39035
39035
39028
39028
39028
39021
39021
39021
39014
39014
39014
39007
39007
39007
39000
39000
39000
38993
38993
38993
38986
38986
38986
38979
38979
38979
38972
38972
38972
38965
38965
38965
38958
38958
38958
38951
38951
38951
38944
38944
38944
38937
38937
38937
38930
38930
38930
38923
38923
38923
38916
38916
38916
38909
38909
38909
38902
38902
38902
38895
38895
38895
38888
38888
38888
38881
38881
38881
38874
38874
38874
38867
38867
38867
38860
38860
38860
38853
38853
38853
38846
38846
38846
38839
38839
38839
38832
38832
38832
38825
38825
38825
38818
38818
38818
38811
38811
38811
38804
38804
38804
38797
38797
38797
38790
38790
38790
38782
38782
38782
38776
38776
38776
38769
38769
38769
38762
38762
38762
38755
38755
38755
38748
38748
38748
38741
38741
38741
38734
38734
38734
38727
38727
38727
38720
38720
38720
38713
38713
38713
38706
38706
38706
38699
38699
38699
38693
38693
38693
38685
38685
38685
38678
38678
38678
38671
38671
38671
38664
38664
38664
38657
38657
38657
38650
38650
38650
38643
38643
38643
38636
38636
38636
38629
38629
38629
38622
38622
38622
38615
38615
38615
38608
38608
38608
38601
38601
38601
38594
38594
38594
38587
38587
38587
38580
38580
38580
38573
38573
38573
38566
38566
38566
38559
38559
38559
38552
38552
38552
38545
38545
38545
38538
38538
38538
38531
38531
38531
38524
38524
38524
38517
38517
38517
38510
38510
38510
38503
38503
38503
38496
38496
38496
38489
38489
38489
38482
38482
38482
38475
38475
38475
38468
38468
38468
38461
38461
38461
38454
38454
38454
38447
38447
38447
38440
38440
38440
38433
38433
38433
38426
38426
38426
38419
38419
38419
38412
38412
38412
38405
38405
38405
38398
38398
38398
38391
38391
38391
38384
38384
38384
38377
38377
38377
38370
38370
38370
38363
38363
38363
38356
38356
38356
38349
38349
38349
38342
38342
38342
38335
38335
38335
38328
38328
38328
38321
38321
38321
38314
38314
38314
38307
38307
38307
38300
38300
38300
38293
38293
38293
38286
38286
38286
38279
38279
38279
38272
38272
38272
38265
38265
38265
38258
38258
38258
38251
38251
38251
38244
38244
38244
38237
38237
38237
38230
38230
38230
38223
38223
38223
38216
38216
38216
38209
38209
38209
38202
38202
38202
38195
38195
38195
38188
38188
38188
38181
38181
38181
38174
38174
38174
38167
38167
38167
38160
38160
38160
38153
38153
38153
38146
38146
38146
38139
38139
38139
38132
38132
38132
38125
38125
38125
38118
38118
38118
38111
38111
38111
38104
38104
38104
38097
38097
38097
38090
38090
38090
38083
38083
38083
38076
38076
38076
38069
38069
38069
38062
38062
38062
38055
38055
38055
38048
38048
38048
38041
38041
38041
38034
38034
38034
38027
38027
38027
38020
38020
38020
38013
38013
38013
38006
38006
38006
37999
37999
37999
37992
37992
37992
37985
37985
37985
37978
37978
37978
37971
37971
37971
37964
37964
37964
37957
37957
37957
37950
37950
37950
37943
37943
37943
37936
37936
37936
37929
37929
37929
37922
37922
37922
37915
37915
37915
37908
37908
37908
37901
37901
37901
37894
37894
37894
37887
37887
37887
37880
37880
37880
37873
37873
37873
37866
37866
37866
37859
37859
37859
37852
37852
37852
37845
37845
37845
37838
37838
37838
37831
37831
37831
37824
37824
37824
37817
37817
37817
37810
37810
37810
37803
37803
37803
37796
37796
37796
37789
37789
37789
37782
37782
37782
37775
37775
37775
37768
37768
37768
37761
37761
37761
37754
37754
37754
37747
37747
37747
37740
37740
37740
37733
37733
37733
37726
37726
37726
37719
37719
37719
37712
37712
37712
37705
37705
37705
37698
37698
37698
37691
37691
37691
37684
37684
37684
37677
37677
37677
37670
37670
37670
37663
37663
37663
37656
37656
37656
37649
37649
37649
37642
37642
37642
37635
37635
37635
37628
37628
37628
37621
37621
37621
37614
37614
37614
37607
37607
37607
37600
37600
37600
37593
37593
37593
37586
37586
37586
37579
37579
37579
37572
37572
37572
Semichemical
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
35,169
35,962
36,564
38,100
37,692
38,398
38,054
38,056
38,536
39,026
38,701
38,643
35,159
35,866
36,686
38,208
37,641
38,106
38,054
38,056
38,536
39,026
38,701
38,643
89.50%
91.60%
92.70%
95.30%
92.80%
95.90%
93.30%
91.60%
93.00%
93.90%
92.80%
92.60%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
46,321
48,263
49,089
51,960
52,700
54,905
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
46,193
48,135
49,381
51,587
52,464
54,819
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
91.20%
92.60%
92.30%
94.80%
93.40%
95.10%
92.90%
91.10%
90.90%
92.30%
92.10%
91.20%
5(NORSCAN)
19 countries: Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina,
Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa, Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand
New Zealand, Japan, South Korea.
These countries represent 81% of world market pulp supply in 2006
2002-2012
Unit:000 tons
Semichemical
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
46,321
48,263
49,089
51,960
52,700
54,905
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
46,193
48,135
49,381
51,587
52,464
54,819
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
91.20%
92.60%
92.30%
94.80%
93.40%
95.10%
92.90%
91.10%
90.90%
92.30%
92.10%
91.20%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
46,321
48,263
49,089
51,960
52,700
54,905
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
46,193
48,135
49,381
51,587
52,464
54,819
56,138
58,713
61,510
64,563
66,042
66,931
91.20%
92.60%
92.30%
94.80%
93.40%
95.10%
92.90%
91.10%
90.90%
92.30%
92.10%
91.20%
5(NORSCAN)
19 countries: Canada, United States, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Brazil, Chile, Argentina,
Germany, Spain, France, Belgium, Austria, South Africa, Swaziland, Morocco, New Zealand
New Zealand, Japan, South Korea.
These countries represent 81% of world market pulp supply in 2006
2002-2012
Unit:000 tons
50%
——
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
reserved-33447000x18
295,721,782
0.11
30
0
1988
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50679240x18
383,514,122
29.69%
0.13
38
0
29.69%
1989
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-57466094x18
448,423,427
16.92%
0.13
45
0
16.92%
1990
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-50249052x18
423,219,948
-5.62%
0.12
42
0
-5.62%
1991
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-79097742x18
619,016,402
46.26%
0.13
62
0
46.26%
1992
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-105250848x18
789,980,749
27.62%
0.13
79
0
27.62%
1993
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-74756027x18
604,071,216
-23.53%
0.12
60
0
-23.53%
1994
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-93558551x18
711,337,439
17.76%
0.13
71
0
17.76%
1995
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-172412245x18
906,207,931
27.39%
0.19
91
0
27.39%
1996
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-192880639x18
1,371,835,756
51.38%
0.14
137
0
51.38%
1997
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-175919978x18
1,619,842,653
18.08%
0.11
162
0
18.08%
1998
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-170837440x18
1,915,007,887
18.22%
0.09
192
0
18.22%
1999
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-245143090x18
2,515,992,015
31.38%
0.10
252
0
31.38%
2000
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-556938365x18
3,713,596,754
47.60%
0.15
371
0
47.60%
1,140
32.58%
2001
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-658611599x18
6,419,108,680
72.85%
0.10
642
0
72.85%
1,310
49.00%
2002
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-732239731x18
6,872,608,971
7.06%
0.11
687
0
7.06%
1,620
42.42%
2003
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1231243197x18
9,381,793,992
36.51%
0.13
938
0
36.51%
1,920
48.86%
2004
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-1726998604x18
12,306,850,887
31.18%
0.14
1,231
0
31.18%
2,305
53.39%
2005
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2457178461x18
17,036,169,977
38.43%
0.14
1,704
0
38.43%
2,810
60.63%
2006
Import
China
World
2511
reserved-2748045275x18
19,623,352,926
15.19%
0.14
1,962
0
15.19%
3,380
58.06%
2007
reserved-4042802178x18
22,561,722,408
14.97%
0.18
2,256
0
14.97%
4,017
56.17%
&A
3800-8000
5000515
201020051038020051.381.1COD2005160140
2010200
——2008
35702006132249%8%
——
——
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
000488
0.5811
0.7433
0.8603
000815
0.3102
0.6639
1.0575
000820
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
002012
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
002067
0.2463
0.5472
0.8902
002078
1.0025
1.4404
1.8732
600069
0.4958
0.8117
1.0788
600103
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600163
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600235
0.0359
0.0697
0.1195
600308
1.0666
1.2862
1.5532
600356
0.0000
0.3344
0.4207
600419
ST
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600433
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600462
*ST
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600567
0.2878
0.0000
0.4370
600793
*ST
0.0000
0.0000
0.0000
600963
0.4294
0.8884
1.7787
600966
0.5975
1.0443
1.2007
——
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
——
2010600
3
1
300,000
170500
12,000
-
2#
250-450
300
80,000
50,000
-
1#
250-400
100,000
2004
12,000
DC
1#
230-600
10,000
25
13
1,414,000
1,000,000
230,000
20
2008
35
2008
75%
3.56H21%2010
0809EPS0.780.94EPS0.640.78
——
08/091.11.260.690.79
——
085040
Northern
Bl.Softwood Kraft
086013080%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
04-0104-0504-0905-0105-0505-0906-0106-0506-0907-0107-0507-0908-0108-05
811
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20002001200220032004200520062007
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900