© 2006 the neville freeman agency open book scenarios workshop 1 melbourne 18-19 august 2006

© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency

Open Book Scenarios

Workshop 1 Melbourne

18-19 August 2006


If we had known then what we do know now, what would we have done

differently in retrospect?

If we could know now what we will know then, what should we do differently

in prospect?


DAY ONE


8.45 Welcome, group formation & process review

Oliver/Richard

9.15 1: Burning Issues Howard

10.40 MORNING TEA

11.00 2: Burning Issues & Framing Questions

Oliver

12.20 3: Conceptual Map Richard B

12.30 LUNCH

1.30 4: Futurequake! Richard N

2.30 5: Introducing INSPECT Oliver

3.30 AFTERNOON TEA

3.45 6: Timeline Melanie

5.00 7: The ‘I’ in INSPECT Richard B

5.30 CLOSE


WELCOME, GROUP FORMATION &

PROCESS REVIEW

Oliver


Where are we at?


Experiential Learning

Concrete Experience

Reflective Observation

Active Experimentation

DivergenceAssimilation

Convergence Accommodation

Abstract Conceptualization

© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Learning to be Strategic

EPISODE 3

Plausible

Strategic

Strategic

Challenges Scenarios

Designs Testing

Strategy

Scenario

Narratives

EPISODE 2 Learning to Generate

Scenarios

INSPECT

Influences

Environmental

Critical

Logics

Uncertainties

Scenario

Scenario Planning as an integrated ‘Structured Episode’ Experiential Learning Process

Identification

EPISODE 1

Learning to Identify and Focus Issues

Question

Design

Analysis

Framing

Key Factor Issues

Question


The Logic of Scenario Planning

Here is the

Teaching Professio

n 2006

Reflexive Participation



Here is the

Teaching Professio

n 2006

Here is the environment in which it is

having to operate



Here is the

Teaching Professio

n 2006

Here is the environment in which it is

having to operate

Here are the strategists – planning for the future of

the profession



Here are the

issues currently

facing the

Teaching Professio

n

Here are the influences in the

current environment

Here are the strategists – exploring both the current

issues and influences



Here are issues that those in the

Teaching Profession may well

have to face in the future

Here are influences which

might be important in

future environments Here are the

strategists – imagining

and exploring future issues

and influences of

potential relevance to the Teaching Profession


GROUP NUMBER

•Please acknowledge your team number (from G1-G8).

•You will use this number which MUST be used to prefix all Zing postings throughout the two days


SESSION 1:BURNING ISSUES

Howard


• “YOLK”……“the essential part or inner core” (separated from the external by a

membrane – ‘system’)

• “ALBUMEN”…..”the nutritive matter about the yolk”


BURNING ISSUES - SOURCES

• the thought starters report• the pre-reading reports• the interviews report• the ‘day in the life’ report• the ten questions report• the focus groups report• the literature review• the student forums


BURNING ISSUES -ACTIVITIES

• 3-5 issues for your group• ZING YOUR RESPONSES • Share your issues with everyone• Report from Neville Freeman


SESSION 2:BURNING ISSUES & THE FRAMING QUESTIONS

Oliver


WHAT WILL THE WHAT WILL THE

AUSTRALIAN AUSTRALIAN TEACHING TEACHING

PROFESSION HAVE TO PROFESSION HAVE TO DO TO BE SUCCESSFUL DO TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN THE ENVIRONMENTS IN THE ENVIRONMENTS

IN WHICH IT WILL IN WHICH IT WILL HAVE TO OPERATE IN HAVE TO OPERATE IN

2030?2030?


WHAT ARE THE WHAT ARE THE

IMPLICATIONS OF THESE IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CHALLENGES FOR SCHOOL CHALLENGES FOR SCHOOL

LEADERSHIP?LEADERSHIP?


The Burning Issues – Activities

• Impact on …… the

profession… success… leadership

• Zing• Share


SESSION 3: A CONCEPTUAL MAP OF WHERE WE ARE

Richard


The Future

Confidently Extrapolate

Speculate

Passively Await

Reflexively Participate

Actively Anticipate

Ambitiously Co-

generate

The ‘Getting it Right’ School of

Strategy

The ‘Not Getting it Wrong’ School of

Strategy

Normatively

Designate


SESSION 4: FUTUREQUAKE!

Richard Neville


SESSION 5: INTRODUCING INSPECT

• Australia in the World• We live in a world in which …

Oliver


The Environment as a Map of Influences

[I]NSPECT[I]NSPECT NATURAL

ECONOMIC

SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL

CULTURAL

NT S

P E

C

I POLITICAL


INSPECT - Activities

• Identify the influences which have made Australia what it is today, using the INSPECT analysis tool

• ZING• Share


SESSION 6: TIMELINE

Melanie


TIMELINE - Activities

• Select ONE influence you identified in the last session and create a timeline of how it has evolved since its inception

• ZING as follows:(INSPECT Letter) (Date) (Topic) (Event)

E.g. T 1982 IT The first PC is marketed in Australia

• Share


SESSION 7:THE ‘I’ IN INSPECT

Richard


The ‘Eye’ in the Middle


The Environment as a Map of Influences

[I]NSPECT[I]NSPECT NATURAL

ECONOMIC

SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL

CULTURAL

N

T S

P E

C

POLITICAL

I


The Environment, The System and ‘I’.

N

T S

P

E

C

I



Reflective Observation

Active Experimentation

SensingThinking

Planning Acting

Concrete Experience Abstract

Conceptualization



Worldview

Competencies


WORLDVIEW• Beliefs about the nature

of nature

• Beliefs about the nature of knowledge

• Beliefs about the nature of human nature


WORLDVIEW• Beliefs about the nature

of nature

• Beliefs about the nature of knowledge

• Beliefs about the nature of human nature

(Epistemology)

(Ontology)

(Axiology)


SensingThinking

Planning Acting

Cognition

Meta-cognition


SensingThinking

Planning Acting

Cognition

Meta-cognition

Epistemic-cognition


DAY TWO


8.45 8: Critical Reflection Howard

9.10 9: Welcome Back - to the future! Howard

9.30 10: Panel - World Views in Collision Richard B

11.10 MORNING TEA

11.30 11: INSPECTING the Now of 2030 Melanie

1.00 LUNCH

2.00 11: INSPECTING the Now of 2030 (ctd) Melanie

3.00 AFTERNOON TEA

3.30 12: Mapping the IMPAXES Oliver

4.30 15: Further Exploration Needs Richard B

5.00 CLOSE


SESSION 8:CRITICAL REFLECTION

Howard

© 2006 The Neville Freeman Agency Learning to be Strategic

EPISODE 3

Plausible

Strategic

Strategic

Challenges Scenarios

Designs Testing

Strategy

Scenario

Narratives

EPISODE 2 Learning to Generate

Scenarios

INSPECT

Influences

Environmental

Critical

Logics

Uncertainties

Scenario

Scenario Planning as an integrated ‘Structured Episode’ Experiential Learning Process

Identification

EPISODE 1


Question

Design

Analysis

Framing

Key Factor Issues

Question



Learning to be Strategic

Learning to Generate Scenarios

Meta-cognition

Cognition

Epistemic-cognition

Transformational Learning


Red odd tables/Yellow even tables Discuss your experiences so far in the project and identify what has been of special importance or significance to members of the group. Agree on one or two items.Of the experiences you have had since the last SBT meeting, what was unexpected? How do you feel about the experience?How have your experiences changed your thinking about teaching? What are you going to do about it? Which, if any, of your values has changed and why? What will you do now?

Reflection


SESSION 9:WELCOME BACK –TO THE FUTURE!

Howard


Why ‘future’?• ‘Business planning’, ‘strategic planning’, ‘forecasting’ all suffer

from similar malaises……..– often merely trend based

– assumes a “steady state” continuum with the planner in the picture

– progresses in a linear manner from where we are standing

– will explore lateral opportunities or solutions, seldom future and unseen ideas

– ignores (or does not see) the discontinuities


• We cannot see tradition from the beginning, because….

“traditions are retrospective, not prospective”

(F.R. Leavis)


Let’s look back

• A good handy never has a bad ring• My dear Watson!• Television never lies• The inter WHAT?• Who would ever have believed?


Through their participation in the Scenario Building Team, teachers and school leaders will have the opportunity to

gain an understanding of, and be involved in a potentially transformative experience of:

• Learning about possible future environments in which schooling

may well have to operate in the future and about the implications of this for the teaching profession;

• Learning about the experiential, social, reflexive, transformative and systemic nature of learning from the

future; and

• Learning about the nature of worldviews and of the impacts

that these epistemic states have on the learning, and the learning to learn aspects of the scenario process.


SESSION 10: PANEL SESSION

Richard B in the chairPANEL

Russell Blackford Sophie Curzon-Siggers, Di Fleming Andrew Metcalfe, Richard Neville,


SESSION 11:INSPECTING THE

NOW OF 2030

Melanie


2030 [I]NSPECT activities• From your understanding of the reports, what are

the major influences which you feel will change the external environment within which teachers will have to operate in the year 2030?– Discuss and use your workbooks to make notes– Summarise what you as a group believe to be

the most important influences into ZING– Share


SESSION 12:MAPPING

THE IMPAXES

Oliver


Which of the Key Influences become Impaxes?

Most

Least

HighLow

This quadrant is where we hope to

find the IMPAXES which will differentiate the scenario worlds

Importance

Uncertainty


SESSION 13:FURTHER EXPLORATION

NEEDS

Richard


The Scenario Planning Network

NFA TA

Pupils

Teachers

Principals

Employers

Parents

Politicians

Bureaucrats

Associations

Unions

Teacher Educators

Analysts

Futurists

Cognitive Eccentrics

Home Remote

Independent

Special Needs

Primary

Secondary

Pre-School

Directors

Directors General

StateFederal

Catholic

Scenario Building

Team


• “YOLK”……“the essential part or inner core”

(separated from the external by a membrane – aka ‘system’)

• “ALBUMEN”…..”the nutritive matter about the yolk”


Reflection

Red odd tables/Blue even tables Discuss your experiences so far in the project and identify what has been of special importance or significance to members of the group. Select and report on one or two items.Of the experiences you have had since the last SBT meeting which have surprised you? How do you feel about that?Have any of your experiences changed your thinking about teaching? What difference has that made to your practice? Which, if any, of your values has been challenged and how? What impact has that had on you?


Why ‘future’?

• ‘Business planning’, ‘strategic planning’, ‘forecasting’ all suffer from similar malaises……..– often merely trend based

– assumes a “steady state” continuum with the planner in the picture

– progresses in a linear manner from where we are standing

– will explore lateral opportunities or solutions, seldom future and unseen ideas

– ignores (or does not see) the discontinuities


• We cannot see tradition from the beginning, because….

“traditions are retrospective, not prospective”

(F.R.Leavis)


Let’s look back

• A good handy never has a bad ring

• My dear Watson!

• Television never lies

• The interWHAT?

• Who would ever have believed?

© 2006 the neville freeman agency open book scenarios workshop 1 melbourne 18-19 august 2006

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