© 2004 discussit.org notice this presentation may be copied and distributed without cost. it may...

© 2004 discussit.org

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e-GuidewaysBruce A. McHenry

[email protected]

Bruce A. McHenrywww.discussIT.org

April 2nd, 2004Revision 2.01PRJ

http://www.discussit.org/


AcknowledgementsPresentation created by:

Bruce A. McHenry e-Guideway Association ([email protected])Modified by Palle R Jensen

Particular thanks to:RUF International (Palle Jensen)MegaRail Transportation Systems (Kirston Henderson)

Special thanks to Professor Jerry SchneiderUniversity of Washington for hisInnovative Transportation Technologies web site

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.ruf.dk/

http://www.megarail.com/

http://faculty.washington.edu/~jbs/itrans/


Transportation is Vital to US• Consumes 19% of average household expenditures ($7,759)• 4,000,000,000,000 passenger-miles in four-wheel vehicles• 200,000,000 four-wheel vehicles• Consumes 14 million barrels/day out of 20 million total• Air carriers only 500,000,000,000 passenger miles (1/8 of car miles)

Bureau of Transportation Statistics


Current Political Sense

“Freedom Car”

High Speed Trains

Maglev Trains

Light Rail


“Freedom Car”

• On-board storage is highly problematic (-420ºF liquid; 90,000psi gas; at best 100 kilos / gallon equivalent using metal hydride)


“Freedom Car”


• Losses incurred during catalytic cracking of hydrocarbons are not offset by efficiency of H2 fuel cells


“Freedom Car”



• Electrolysis, distribution, storage and conversion of H2 incurs substantial energy losses


“Freedom Car”



• Electrolysis, distribution, storage and conversion of H2 incurs substantial energy losses

• Solves none of the “presenting complaints” about congestion, safety, etc.


High Speed Trains

• < 300 miles: slower than 100MPH guideways door-to-door and far more costly on passenger-mile basis

• > 300 miles: slower and more expensive than planes

Maglev trains have similar characteristics, only much, much more expensive.


Light Rail

• Typically serves only 1% of commuters where used

• Average subsidy per passenger equivalent to purchasing a car

• Relatively slow

• Requires large amount of public space


“Freedom Car”

High Speed Trains

Maglev Trains

Light Rail


Winning Platforms

e-Cars Hybrid Electric Cars

e-Guideways


Remember…


3000 killed100 billion damage


3000 killed every month100 billion damage every year

42,000 deaths/yr.10x injuries

100 billion/year property damage

Photo: Philip Greenspun


October November December

January February March

April May June

July August Sept.

October November December

January February March

April May June

July August Sept.

October November December20022003

January

What would politicians do if a 9/11 happened every month?


What is a Dualmode Vehicle?

A dualmode vehicle travels under manual control on the street network for some portion of its trip, and operates under automatic control on an exclusive guideway for some other portion.

Images courtesy of RUF International


What is an e-Guideway?

Animation depicting cars assembling into car-trains on the guideway.

Ruftrain.exeAnimation courtesy of RUF International

http://www.ruf.dk/ruftrain.exe


WHY?


1. Safety

Images courtesy of RUF International & AVT Train.com

Guideways support high speeds with great safety…


… because they are separated from crossing vehicles and animals.


Footnote: Braking on the guideway would be swift and certain.



2. MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT

50-75% average aerodynamic drag reductionbecause only the first and last cars experience large drag forces

Image courtesy of RUF International



>>2x reduction in rolling resistance because:

1) if the steel guideway

is very smooth…

2) then the wheels can be hard with low rolling resistance

e.g. multiple polyethylene wheels that will roll smoothly over expansion joints



In RUF design, rail wheels are

smooth wheels.

Traction friction can be

adjusted by changing

pressure against top rail




Another 3x reduction in rolling resistance possible due to:

3) appropriatesize, low average weight (1000 lbs.)

> 6x less rolling resistance

Photos courtesy of Global Electric Motorcars, LLC


Maglev?

Magnetic levitation can offer much more reduction in rolling resistance.

However, aerodynamic drag would still dominate running efficiency.

Image courtesy of AVT-Train.com


Maglev?

Magnetic levitation might someday offer much more reduction in rolling resistance.

However, aerodynamic drag would still dominate running efficiency.

Image courtesy of AVT-Train.com


2. MUCH MORE ENERGY EFFICIENT

2-4x aerodynamic & 6x rolling friction reductions

=> Running efficiency improves 2-4X



Cd = 0.15 Cd = 0.07 w/o wheels

Image courtesy of Roane Inventions


Running Efficiency Gain

1:3


Allows cars to be lighter and much less expensive to run.

3. MOSTLY ELECTRIC PROPULSION

Electrified guideway



3. MOSTLY ELECTRIC PROPULSION

Solves range problem of all-electric cars. Makes e-cars practical…within urban areasor between them.



What is the Propulsion Efficiency?

New natural gas power plants (50%)

Transmission efficiency (85%)

Electric motor efficiency (90%)

Overall: 38%

Compare with 15% for typical internal combustion engine (ICE) or 25% for hybrid-electric


Propulsion Efficiency Gain

2:3


Overall Efficiency Gain

1:4.5


Conventionally Sized Van: 25 MPG at 65 MPH

At 100 MPH it would get 11 MPG.(25 / (100/65)2)

Efficiency decreases approximately as square of speed when aerodynamic drag predominates

New CAFÉ?


Conventionally Sized e-Van: 11 * 4.5 = 50 MPG at 100 MPH

Prius (mid-size) Car:30 MPG at 100 MPH30 * 4.5 = 135 MPG at 100 MPH

New CAFÉ?


$1.70MEDIAN SIZE CAR:

15HP at 55MPH

ON e-GUIDEWAY:→ 100MPH with 3x better running efficiency…

Generation & transmission cost of 1 kWh: $0.10

What is the electricity cost to travel 100 miles in an hour? Running efficiency gain = 3Efficiency of electric motor = 90%Loss due to higher speed = (100/55)3 = 6.0Power needed at 100MPH: 15*6/3*0.9 = 33 HP or 25 kW

Cost to Power a Mid-Size Car?


$2.50MEDIAN SIZE CAR:

15HP at 55MPH

ON e-GUIDEWAY:→ 100MPH with 3x better running efficiency…

Generation & transmission cost of 1 kWh: $0.10

What is the electricity cost to travel 100 miles in an hour? Running efficiency gain = 3Efficiency of electric motor = 90%Loss due to higher speed = (100/55)3 = 6.0Power needed at 100MPH: 15*6/3*0.9 = 33 HP or 25 kW

Cost to Power a Mid-Size Car?


$1.50 on e-Guideway at 100 MPH

2.5 cents per mile

vs.

50 MPG at 70 MPH

2 gallons at $1.50 = $3.00

3.0 cents per mile

100 Miles in Mid-Size Car?


4. LAND USE

Guideways carry about 10x as many passengers/hr as a normal lane. (2200/hr vs. 22,000/hr)



4. MUCH LOWER LAND USE

Because about 1/10th footprint of an ordinary lane

Image courtesy of MegaRail Transportation Systems



1:100


less than

1:100


5. USER COMFORT & CONVENIENCE


Any time, door-to-door




Congestion free




Can work, sleep or play



• Any time, door-to-door

• Congestion free

• Can work, sleep or play• Faster than air travel up to 500 miles. > Door-to-door DC to NYC areas: <3 hours > Sleep across the nation over the weekend At 3 cents per mile, $100 one-way single- occupancy


6. DRAMATICALLY REDUCED CAR MAINTENANCE

• Vastly simpler electric motor– No ignition system– No valves– No piston rings– No motor vibration

• Regenerative braking

• No muffler

• No clutch

• No high speed salt spray


7. INEXPENSIVE SHORT-TERM CAR RENTAL

Because of low maintenance, virtually zero accidents, and reduced pick-up and point-of-return constraints. Will order cars according to need, e.g.:

• One person commuter car • Family outing SUV• Cargo van• Sleeper cars• etc.


8. AUTOMATED FREIGHT

• Less need for trans-shipment terminals.

• Faster

• Greater predictability and shorter lead times facilitate “just-in-time” delivery systems


9. NATIONAL SECURITY

End dependence on Middle East oil

=> Freedom from risk of supply disruption

=> May end funding repressive régimes


BUT• Does it make economic sense?

• Will it fit downtown?

• What about the visual impact?

• How long will it take?


COST?


Cost Components1.Power generation

2.Guideway construction


New Power Demand


New Power Demand

Current national use 3.7 billion Mwh (2003)

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html


New Power Demand

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh15 * 0.75 * (100/55)3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway


New Power Demand

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh15 * 0.75 * (100/55)3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway 1,000 miles/yr or 67hrs/yr at 15 mph and 2kW = 134 kWh/vehicle/yr30,000 miles/yr or 300 hrs/yr at 100 mph and 25 kW = 6,900 Kwh/vehicle/yr


New Power Demand

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh15 * 0.75 * (100/55)3 / 3 * 1.11 = 25 Kw on guideway 1,000 miles/yr or 67hrs/yr at 15 mph and 2kW = 134 kWh/vehicle/yr30,000 miles/yr or 300 hrs/yr at 100 mph and 25 kW = 6,900 Kwh/vehicle/yr150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand


New Power Demand

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand1,400 billion ton-miles of truck freight partially converted to1,000 billion ton-miles of e-van freightAverage van load: 800 lbs2000/800 * 1000 = 2,500 billion miles of e-van freighte-van uses 40 Kwh on guideway per 100 miles.4 * 2500 = 1000 billion Kwh = 1.0 billion Mwh e-freight


New Power Demand

Current national use of 3.7 billion Mwh150 million e-cars * 7 Mwh = 1.5 billion Mwh avg. demand.4 * 2500 = 1000 billion Kwh = 1.0 billion Mwh e-freight

Projected demand increase due to e-guideways is2.5 billion Mwh

Probable doubling of electricity supply


We can generate another 4 billion Mwh.

If fuel costs increase sharply, we will know that we MUST generate another 4 billion Mwh.


So while DEMAND CAN BE MET WITH OIL OR GAS FIRED POWER PLANTS, we might use

New Power Systems


So while DEMAND CAN BE MET WITH OIL OR GAS FIRED POWER PLANTS, we might use

Wind Farms

Image courtesy of Energy Electronics Institute, National AIST, Japan

Solar Cell Farms


&


We might also use meltdown-proof nuclear reactors based on transportableuranium pebbles

Image courtesy of Eskom, South Africa


“Pebble Bed” Nuclear Power

Ima

ge c

ourt

esy

of

Esk

om,

Sou

th A

fric

a


GuidewayConstruction

Cost?


How Many Miles of Guideway?

How many miles needed for metropolitan areas?


How Many Miles of Guideway?

WDC is a metro area with 6 million residents30x30 mile grid with 2 mile separation

=> 30 * (15+15) = 900 miles150 miles per million residents-or-100 subway miles * 4 = 400100 beltway miles = 100Total miles = 600100 miles per million residents


How Many Miles Total?

• 100 miles per million metro area residents

• 200 million metro area residents nationwide

=> 20,000 miles of metro guideway

40,000 miles along interstates


Cost of E-Guideway

EXPENSIVE!.. and we can only take an educated guess:

• 20,000 metropolitan miles @ $40 million per mile = $800 billion

• 40,000 miles of interstate @ $5 million per mile = $200 billion

• System cost about the same as initial construction of the interstate highway system ($1 trillion)


e-Guideways will be Expensive

so…Can they be justified? Would they pay off?


#1: Value of Saved Drive-Time

Frees up about 30 minutes from 55* min avg. daily drive time: .5 * 365 = 183 hrs/yr.

Eliminates >80% of long distance driving (4000* miles/yr): 3200 / 60 = 53 hours/yr.

120 million drivers (est.) (183 + 53) * 120M = 28,320 million hr/yr

$5/hr * 28M = $140B

* Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

http://www.bts.gov/


#2: Value of Time Not Stuck in Traffic

80% reduction of time stuck in traffic at cost of $517/person* (2001) and estimated cost of $1300 per capita by 2015 (8% growth*)0.8 * 1300 * 120M (est.) = $125B

* Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

http://www.bts.gov/


#3: Savings from Eliminated Accidents

Approximately $100 billion/yr saved on insurance premiums and cost on non-covered accidents.

Additional savings in personal medical expenses. $100B?

Value of lives saved: $40B?Injuries not suffered: $40B?


#4: National Security

At least $100 billion/yr. for reduced cost of military preparedness and stabilization operation in Middle East.(e.g. Additional cost of Operation Iraqi Freedom is approximately $100 billion/yr in FY 2004, 2005)

Ought to be funded by $1 per gallon tax on 100 billions gallons consumed annually?


#5: Reduced Cost of Car Maintenance & Repair

Savings of at least $50 billion/yr.


#6: Reduced Cost of New Cars

Doubling the longevity of cars: $150 billion

1/3rd reduction in the price of 50% of new cars owing to the simplicity and lighter weight of all-electric drive: $50 billion offset by the increased complexity of hybrid dualmode vehicles -$50 billion.


#7: Savings Due to Car Sharing

Sharing of cars much more conveniently and affordably because of greatly reduced point-of-return requirements and liability. No first car, second or third one reduces $300 billion capital investment in new cars by perhaps 10%-20% = $15-30 billion (out of $150 billion) Also, car sharing and smaller cars able to self park in dense configurations will also pare parking expenses (and make it possible to reduce or eliminate street parking). If 5% of 200m cars could pay $10 instead of $50/month to park: 10m * 40 * 12 = $5 billion.


#8: Less Truck Driving

50% reduction in the cost of drivers for combination trucks: $20 billion


#9: Reduced Highway Maintenance

$29 billion → $20 billion

→ much less


#10: End of Subsidies for Other Transit

Light rail, bus, AMTRAK, airlines subsidies vary by year but range from $10 to $20 billion at Federal level alone.


Total Value > $0.5T/yr. Suggests that the e-guideway construction costs could be paid back to society only two years after operation commences…


Total Value > $0.5T/yr. Suggests that the e-guideway construction costs could be paid back to society only two years after operation commences… if vehicles are dualmode capable at that time.


Another Economic Justification

e-guideway construction and associated redevelopment will employ at least 600,000 Americans ($100B / $150,000)


And Many Quality of Life Benefits

• Improved mobility & safety i.e. access to friends, family & recreation

• Dramatic lowering of traffic impact on high density areas

• Potential to remodel public spaces

• Dramatic improvement in ripeness of fruits and vegetables

• Major facilitator of Internet commerce


RUF International is #1


Maxi-ruf: Attractive Public Transport


MegaRail is #2

MegaRail Transportation Systems propose a micro-rail for urban areas and a separate higher capacity system for interstate use.


Several More Serious Entrepreneurs

?Image Credits: German Autoshuttle, Tritrack, Blade Runner


Needs of e-Guideways

About 10 years and about $100 billion R&D investment (10%) is desirable to optimize designs and manufacturing processes for eventual construction throughout the continent.

Progress could be greatly with a series of high value prizes for engineering “bake-offs”

Investment to date only about $4 million.


What is to be Done?

Ramp R&D funding levels up towards $10 billion/yr to support series of highly rewarded engineering “bake-offs”.

Contrast with national Amtrak subsidy (>$1 billion), the “Freedom Car” ($1.5 billion), Maglev ($2.0 billion), and NASA ($10 billion).


What is to be Done?

Ramp R&D funding levels up towards $10 billion/yr to support series of highly rewarded engineering “bake-offs”.

Contrast with national Amtrak subsidy (>$1 billion), the “Freedom Car” ($1.5 billion), Maglev ($2.0 billion), and NASA ($10 billion).

Presidential commitment comparable to Kennedy’s goal of a “Man on the Moon” to design and build the first system on Oahu.


- OR -

• New private company with mission to develop guideway and vehicle designs

• Returns on investment expected in 5 – 15 years

• ROI to be negotiated with eventual clients, many of which could also be investors


Timetable

• About 10 years for series of design competitions and prototyping including first major build in Hawaii.

• About 10 years to construct functional coast-to-coast network

• Nice target date? 2025: The bicentennial of George Stephenson’s first passenger train (1825).

© 2004 discussit.org notice this presentation may be copied and distributed without cost. it may...

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metal hydride losses

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