zhengfei guan gulf coast research & education center...
TRANSCRIPT
Zhengfei Guan
Gulf Coast Research & Education Center University of Florida/IFAS
Overview of the world tomato production
US Tomato Production and Value
Mexico Tomato Industry and Government Support
U.S.-Mexico Trade
Florida Tomato Industry and Market Share
Threats and Opportunities
Concluding remarks
Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Million T
onnes
USA Turkey Italy Egypt Mexico India China
In cwt, 1998-2012
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Vegetables Summary
Million c
wt
32.91
37.41 38.89
37.70 39.59
35.36
37.95 38.03 36.27
33.63 31.14
33.24
27.96 28.23 27.59
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source:U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Vegetables Summary
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million D
ollars
15.8 14.9
14.0 14.2
15.1 15.5
13.5 13.3
10.5
12.3
8.6 9.1
9.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million cw
t
California
Florida
North Carolina
Fresh Tomato Production in the Top 3 States
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
10
00
acre
s h
arv
este
d
California
Florida
North Carolina
Harvested Acreage of Fresh Tomatoes in the Top 3 States
Per Acre Yield in cwt, 2000-2012
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
CW
T
California Florida
Production cost is much lower
Leading country for tomato exports; has significant impact on U.S. Market
Open field yields have risen from 20,000 lbs per acre in 1990 to 25,000 lbs/acre in 2000 and to 37,000 lbs/acre in 2010.
Yield increased 50% in 10 years
Per Acre Yield in cwt, 2000-2012
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
cw
t/acre
California Florida Mexico
Source: United Nations, Food and Agriculture Organization
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Million p
ounds
Source: USDA/FAS
5,625
4,762
4,960
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
5200
5400
5600
5800
2011 2012 2013
Million P
ound
s
Source: USDA/FAS
131,470
126,021
129,728
123000
124000
125000
126000
127000
128000
129000
130000
131000
132000
2011 2012 2013
acre
s
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million P
ound
s
Export Import Net Trade
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million P
ounds
Exports to United States
Total Exports
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million P
ounds
Import Export Net Trade
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
From Mexico, Canada and Other Countries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2,010 2,011 2,012
Million p
ounds
Others Canada Mexico
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million P
unds
imports of greenhouse
tomato from Mexico
Imports of greenhouse
tomato
total imports
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million P
ounds
Canada - Mexico Others
To Mexico, Canada and Other Countries
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Million P
uound
s
Mexico Canada
Source: USDA/ERS
North American fresh-market field and protected-culture
technology tomato shipping seasons by region
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce
U.S. Retail Advertised Prices for Tomatoes($/lbs)
Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Fruit and Vegetable Retail Report
U.S. Retail Advertised Prices for Tomatoes($/lbs)
Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Fruit and Vegetable Retail Report
The largest supplier of fresh tomatoes, accounting for nearly 50% of the total crop value
Winter production predominantly in FL
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
1576 1490.8
1397.5 1419
1512 1554
1347.5 1332.1
1045.8
1229.8
855.5 912
957
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million P
ounds
Source: U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistics Service.
410
493 483 528
551
500
805
551
425
622
520
620
435
268
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million D
ollars
Tomato farm gate Prices at Florida ($/lbs)
Source: USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service, National Fruit and Vegetable Retail Report
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$/lb
s
2010 2011 2012
Mexico competition
U.S. tomato production decreased from 3324 million lbs in 2009 to 2759 million lbs in 2012
Tomatoes imported increased significantly from 2623 million lbs to 3379 million lbs over the same period; increased by 750 million lbs;
Farm gate value of Florida tomato industry and the national
values slumped sharply, from $620 to $268 million;
Market share of Florida tomatoes shrank due to the dumping of Mexican tomato to U.S. domestic tomato industry.
Mexico Protected Agriculture Policy
The Mexican greenhouse horticulture received substantial amounts of governmental subsidies.
In 2009,SAGARPA announced a strategic project for protected agriculture.
For greenhouses: $1.2 million Peso/ha, up to $3 million peso per
project ($246,000).
Furthermore, specialized training and technical assistance eligible for subsidy of 50% of total cost, up to $100,000 peso (roughly $10,000).
The same subsidy applies for insurance for greenhouses, market studies; certification of GAP and GMP; promotion of products originating from protected agriculture, etc.
Benefits of Protected Agriculture ◦ Higher Yield
◦ The benefits in production, quality, pest control, and reduced risk exposure to climate change
◦ Higher market price
Mexico Protected Tomato production
Year hectares acres
2010 4000 9884
2011 13000 32124
2012 14700 36324
Increasing government regulation Methyl bromide ban caused technological shocks, impacted
yields, risks, and costs
Increase in production costs
high labor rates, high transportation costs;
Cost disadvantage compared to Mexico (plenty of cheap labor force).
“Americans don’t want to do labor work”
“90 percent of labor force is ILLEGAL”
E-Verify policy is threatening the supply
Guest Worker Program (H-2A) expensive and
cumbersome
Solution: “Ag Card”?
New variety development for mechanical harvesting
New Suspension Agreements
New varieties
Protected production
Labor solution
The industry is operating under increased costs,
competition and regulation
Inefficient growers forced to exit, industry getting
more consolidated
The industry has been trending down, but the new
Suspension Agreement may slow/change this trend
Need to INNOVATE and CHANGE
Need new varieties and labor solutions
& Promote “buy local” ,“Made in U.S.A.”; “Fresh
from Florida”!
