zero dollar car - part 2: rewriting the narrative in favor of the automotive industry
TRANSCRIPT
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I’m not a car guy; I’m a software guy and I work with cars.
Auto Captives Summit 2016November 9, 2016
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 2 of 40
Open
Who am I?
I’m a developer.
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 3 of 40
Some Background
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 4 of 40
What are you worth (just your internet traffic)?
Data Source: PrivacyFix, E&A 2013
Note – single desktop, does not include work issued laptop, home laptop, mobile phones, iPad_1, iPad_2 etc.
~$5,500
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 5 of 40
It is therefore no wonder Apple & Google are doing what they are doing in the car.But what are they doing?
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Chevy MyLink
Cadillac CUE
Kia UVO
Mercedes mBrace2
Toyota Entune
Audi Connect
GM OnStar
25+Connected Solutions
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 7 of 40
One solution, all vehicles
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 8 of 40
Chevy MyLink
Cadillac CUE
Kia UVO
Mercedes mBrace2
Toyota Entune
Audi Connect
GM OnStar
Toyota
Chevy
Kia
CadillacAudi
Mercedes
GM
X
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 9 of 40
Who’s next is any one with a digital life mobile ecosystem, including …
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Headlight
Rain
Wiper
Barometer
Traction Control
Microphone
Representative. Locations and specific sensors are meant to be descriptive.
Clock
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 11 of 40
38,300
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 12 of 40
Headlight
Rain
Wiper
Barometer
Traction Control
Clock
Microphone
Representative. Locations and specific sensors are meant to be descriptive.
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 13 of 40
Package 1 $ 6,000 Package 2 $ 4,000 Package 3 $ 7,000 Package 4 $ 4,000
Package N Total: $ 60,000
Scenario One – Sensors @ Dealers
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 14 of 40
Package 1 $ 6,000 Package 2 $ 4,000 Package 3 $ 7,000 Package 4 $ 4,000
Package N Total: $ 60,000
Scenario One – Sensors @ Dealers
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Base Price $ 40,000 Package 1 $ 3,000 Sub-total $ 37,000
Package 2 $ 2,000 Sub-total $ 35,000
Total $ -
Scenario One – Sensors @ Dealers
Packages $ 60,000 Data Sales $ 40,000 Difference $ 20,000
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 16 of 40
Scenario Two – Ecosystem Subsidy
Base Price $ 27,500 Subsidy - Year 1 $ 5,500 Subsidy - Year 2 $ 5,500 Subsidy - Year 3 $ 5,500 Subsidy - Year 4 $ 5,500 Subsidy - Year 5 $ 5,500
Total $ -
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 17 of 40
First Connected Car: 1922 Chevrolet with Radio
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 18 of 40
First V2V Installation?
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“A final prediction: The end of an era… As a result of this changing competitive landscape, we fully believe that in 10 years, many of the major automakers will no longer bearound, at least not as independent companies… The companies that thrive in the future will likely be those that are nimble, future oriented—and prepared to invest in new technologies, new talent, and new strategic alliances.“
KPMG SPECIAL REPORT Nov. 2015“The Clockspeed Dilemma: What Does it Mean for Automotive Innovation?”
INSIGHTSLOOKING AHEAD TOWARD 2025
73% of all interviewed executives rated collaboration with other industries as the best opportunity for industry growth as we progress toward 2025
75% of all executives we spoke with expect non-traditional industry participants to have a key role in the automotive ecosystem by 2025
PREPARDNESS FOR 2025
Only 19 percent of interviewed auto executives describe their organizations as prepared for challenges on the way to 2025; 71 percent as somewhat prepared; and 10 percent as not prepared.
Exacerbating this limited readiness, just 33 percent said their organizations are adaptable to face challenges, 59 percent are somewhat adaptable and 8 percent are not adaptable.
IBM INSTITUTE FOR BUSINESS VALUE Jan. 2015“Automotive 2025: Industry Without Borders”
“The key question is: Do you sell cars or do you sell mobility?” said Tim Ryan, New York-based vice chairman ofmarkets and strategy for consultant PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. “If you ignore these megatrends, you run the risk of becoming irrelevant.”
BLOOMBERG Feb. 2014“Woes of Megacity Driving Signal Dawn of ‘Peak Car’ Era”
…in 10 years many of the major automakers will no
longer be around…
…19% prepared for challenges…71% somewhat prepared…10%
not prepared
…33% adaptable to face challenges…59% somewhat
adaptable…8% not adaptable
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 20 of 40
Only the paranoid survive.
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 21 of 40
Vehicle data is the holy grailand the way the automotive industry can position itself to win against mobile ecosystems.So how to accomplish this?
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OS Agnostic QNX / Microsoft / VxWorks Android / Linux / Integrity
iOS / AndroidWindows / other
SmartDeviceLink (“SDL”)
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OEM Participation in SDLOEM Participation in SDL
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Growing SDL Ecosystem Ever Expanding SDL Ecosystem
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Vehicle Data External Data Feeds Cool Features
MyKey(Ford specific)
GPS
Speed
RPM
Acceleration
Braking
Oil Life
Tire Pressure
Courtesy – Scott Burnell, Ford Developer Program, BD
Current Weather Data
Live Traffic Data
IFTT-Ford Channel(Connects Apps)
IF THENKids DriveWithin 1 Mile of Home/School/Work
Send Me SMS That They Have Arrived
MyKey Reports More Than 5 Speed or Belt Alerts In 30 Days
Create a Reminderin Gmail to Speakto Child
Fuel Econ Above/Below X
Post Smile/Frown on Driver Social Graph
Oil Life Below XSend Appointment Request toSaved Dealer
Temp Outside is Above/Below X@ 6AM
Precondition Vehicle
Traffic Congestionon Route Home Between 4:45 - 5 PM
Send SMS Reminder to Take Alternate Route
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 26 of 40
SDL Advantages
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SDL Advantages
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SDL Advantages
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 29 of 40
Developer Opportunities with SDL
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So what to do exactly?
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 31 of 40© 2011 Martin Eriksson http://sumo.ly/hx1y via @mindtheproduct
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1. Quickly expand the SDL vehicle data APIs DIDResult
DTCGetDTCsGetVehicleDataHeadLampStatusPRNDL ReadDIDVehicleDataEventStatusVehicleDataNotificationStatusVehicleDataResultVehicleDataStatusVehicleTypeWiperStatus
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2. Outreach & Educate dongle companies
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3. Outreach & Educate Organizations
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 35 of 40
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This vehicle is known to the State of California to
contain recording devices. Entering this vehicle means
you accept you have no privacy within this vehicle.
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 38 of 40
Software is eating everything. -- Marc Andreessen
Every company is now a software company. -- David Kirkpatrick
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 39 of 40
We can evade reality, but we cannot evade the consequences of evading reality. -- Ayn Rand
May you live in interesting times.
-- Purported Chinese Curse
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All rights reserved. @2016. Ellis & Associates. Slide 40 of 40
Thank You.