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Zapp Case Study
Romanian Market Outlook
Romania: 22 mln pop / 240k km2
pg1
Romania: Outlook
pg1
50
100
150
200
250
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 20040
50
100
150
Avg. monthly salary (USD)Salary earnings index (previous year=100)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
e
0
10
20
30
40
50
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0
5
10
15
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
December only Average/ year
% from total active population
GDP
Inflation Rate
Monthly avg. income/ capita
Unemployment rate
Romania: Personal Budget (USD/month)
pg1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e
Food, beverages & tobacco
Housing
Clothing & footwear
Health
Transport & communications
Culture, entertainment, education
Other
Source: UN Statistical Office; World Bank; Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO); Euromonitor; World Health Organisation (WHO);national statistical offices; Pyramid Research; Economist Intelligence Unit estimates and forecasts.
Romania: Telecom Penetration
pg1
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e 2009e 2010e 2011e 2012e 2013e
fix mobile
e=estimated
Market deregulation
Romania/CEE: Fixed Penetration
pg1
0
20
40
60
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
HungaryPolandCzech R.RussiaSlovakiaBulgariaGreciaRomania
Romania/CEE: Mobile Penetration
pg1
95.2
83.2
50
41
65
37
93
46.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
Year oflaunching
2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year 6th year 7th year 8th year 9th year 10th year 11th year 12th year
Hungary ('94)
Poland ('96)
Czech Rep. ('96)
Russia ('98)
Slovakia ('97)
Bulgaria ('97)
Grecia ('93)
Romania ('97)
Romania: Overall Mobile Market
pg1
2,1
81
2,3
37
2,4
63
2,6
35
2,6
73
2,7
46
2,9
12
3,4
57
3672
4090
43151
,719
1,8
57
2,0
20
2,2
11
2,3
77
2,5
90
2,8
78 3,3
00
3611 3960
4284
2,0
04
4930
1,6
37
4970
44
50
6380
8484
9591
113107
9993
32
182
153128
3721
182
69101
205
229
250
278
46.4%
41.4%
38.7%
35.0%32.8%
29.0%25.7%
24.1%23.0%
20.7%19.3%
18.1%17.4%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Q4 '01 Q1 '02 Q2 '02 Q3 '02 Q4 '02 Q1 '03 Q2 '03 Q3 '03 Q4 '03 Q1 '04 Q2 '04 Q3 '04 Q4 '04
Subs (x1000)
TelemobilCosmoromOrangeConnex
Romania: Postpaid Mobile Market
pg1
801
846
894
949
988
989
1,0
66
1,2
79
1,3
59
1,4
31
1,5
10
763
803
845
893
929
1,0
12
1,1
88
1,2
05
1,2
99
1,4
15
1,5
31
761
1,8
01725
1,8
46
1012
3231
32
37
618610290
4541
9
181
153
128
3721182
69101
205229
250
278
17.8%
15.4%
14.3%13.4%
12.6%
11.3%
10.0%9.5%
9.0%8.2%
7.9%7.6%7.1%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Q4 '01 Q1 '02 Q2 '02 Q3 '02 Q4 '02 Q1 '03 Q2 '03 Q3 '03 Q4 '03 Q1 '04 Q2 '04 Q3 '04 Q4 '04
Subs (x1000)
TelemobilCosmoromOrangeConnex
Romania: Internet Penetration
pg1
0
5
10
15
20
2003 2004 2005e 2006e 2007e 2008e0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Internet penetration
Personal computers penetration
Internet service providers (no.)
Source: Romanian Authority for Communications
Zapp Case Study
Technology Choice
* The use of unlicensed spectrum creates interference issues
Affordable coverage is key in wireless telecommunications>> Lower frequencies are best positioned
29GHz11GHz5GHz2GHz1GHz
CDMA450
Licensed*Unlicensed
GSM1.8
CDMA1.9
WCDMA2.1
GSM900
CDMA800
cdma2000®
450, 800, 1.7, 1.9, 2.1
CDMA1.7
802.15.1Bluetooth
2.4802.11 b, g
Wi-Fi2.4
TD-SCDMA2.1
802.11 a, eWi-Fi5.0
802.16a, eWiMAX
2-11
802.16a, eWiMAX
5.8
802.15.3aUWB
3.1-10.6 802.16LMDS28-29
Licensed &*Unlicensed
Spectrum Allocations Criteria
Based on the Free Space Loss calculations, 450 spectrum offers larger coverage footprints comparing to upper bands when using the same technology – enabling less cell sites count in open and rural areas.
CDMA2000 RF capacity per MHz is higher than other technologies capacity – enabling less cell sites count in urban areas.
CDMA link budget is driven by usage when using the same band – enabling flexible data margins
CDMA packet based encapsulation for Voice & Data provides better system efficiency -enabling cost effective transport and services (IP based).
Resulting network CAPEX and OPEX figures are the lowest in the industry – enabling a competitive positioning for trading the service usage for buying desired market-share.
450 MHz
900 MHz
Technical Considerations
Strategic considerations
CDMA2000 can (inter) operate across multiple bandsCDMA needs only 1.8 MHz of spectrum for the first carrier (1.25 MHz plus the guard bands) while 450 MHZ spectrum can host up to four CDMA carriersBased on its cost efficiency, CDMA2000/450 can cover and serve all the NICHE markets left underserved by other technologies due to their capacity and/or coverage limitations (on both mobile & fixed / voice & data markets).Due to the poor fixed infrastructure available in Romania, CDMA2000/450 can provide the most cost effective solution for the “Universal Service” initiative.Broadband data capability allows CDMA2000/450 to substitute equivalent fixed data solutions (ISDN, CATV, xDSL etc) where these are unavailable.Reliable always-on data capability provides an excellent platform forthe next generation applications
Technology Choices
802.20
Source: International Telecommunications Union and WiMAX Forum
Fixed(Stationary)
Pedestrian(Nomadic)
Mobile(Vehicular)
2G/2.5GCellular
0.1 1.0 10 100
Peak Data Rate per User (Mbits/second)
Mob
ility
802.16e
CommercialProposed
802.16a(WiMAX)
79 x 1 MHz
Bluetooth
> 100UWB
20802.16
5HSDPA
1.251xEV-DO 1xEVDV802.20
1.252G/2.5G
Bandwidth(MHz)
Bandwidth Assumptions
WWAN(IMT-2000)
cdma2000® 1xEV-DO,cdma2000® 1xEV-DV
3.1
WCDMA HSDPA
802.15.1(Bluetooth)
802.11(WLAN)
802.15.3a(UWB)
Wireless Data Standards
Zapp Case Study
Segmentation & Positioning
Zapp: Overview
pg11
o Coverageo Nationwide coverage of Romaniao 90% pop, 78% geo
o Market Shareo 310,000 Subscriberso 250k voice / 50k data 1x / 10k data DOo 10% Postpaid Market Shareo Price & HSPD as major differentiators
o Networko CDMA2000 – Band Class5/Ao IS-41 (ANSI-41)o cdma2000 1x & EV-DO, Brew, PTTo SMS M/O, M/To Wireless Internet @153.6kbps &
2.4Mbpso Total 580 BTS and 5 MSCo Outbound roaming to GSM based on
plastic roaming with call-forward/call-back for the best price/convenience
Zapp: Segmentation / Opportunities
pg11
Fixed Broadband Data - postpaid(Huge growth potential for Voice & Data prepaid services)
Prepaid offers11.000.000Residential
720.000Home offices < 6 employees
52.400Small size companies6-50 employees
Voice & Data - postpaid(&prepaid)
CUG offersCheaper prices than Residential
7.700
Medium size companies 50-200 employees
Mobile Data - postpaid(Competition on Voice services being obstructed by the interconnect fees)
Extremely Cheap offers
3.100Corporate>200 employees
Niches for new operatorsExpectCountMarket Segments
Zapp: Voice Business Strategy
pg11
• Main focus on SME/SOHO segment with “no frills” strategy
• Product based on generous on-net traffic bundles to ease
CUG communications and “snow-ball” growing strategy
driven by the low cost per capacity and coverage
• Distribution and advertising strategy tailored for addressed
segment
Profitability significantly higher than for residential (over $30 ARPU)
Zapp: Data Business Strategy
pg11
• Romania is characterized by virtually nonexistent mobile
data market and very poor fixed internet access infrastructure
• Zapp shifted focus from mobile to fixed/portable data market
and moving from data volumes charging towards connection
time charging
• Positioning WLAN as “data repeater” technology for CDMA
Voice + Dial-up and Data Broadband products revenues over $40 ARPU/GM
Zapp: Evolution Enablers
pg11
Consumers
63%63%
ZAPPZAPP
10%10%
Zapp mainly focus on business users.
Evolution in core and adjacent segments depends on the following ingredients/timelines:
• Nation-wide coverage / 2005
• Handsets price decrease / 2006
• Critical mass achievement / 2005
• Differentiating services / permanent
• Interconnect fees decrease / 2006
• Prepaid / 2006
• Roaming / 2007
27%27%Corporate
SME, SOHO
Zapp Case Study
Evolution Milestones
Zapp: Milestones
• world’s first cdma2000 operator in 450 MHz band (December 2001) under Zapp Mobile brand name.
• first European operator to launch BREW-based services (April 2004) under Zapp Me brand name.
• among early adopters of the cdma2000 1x EV-DO technology (October 2004) under Zapp Internet Express brand name.
• first cdma450 operator to launch VoIP/PTT services (2005)
pg11
Zapp: Network Evolution
pg11 2004/20052002/20032001/2002
PHASE I
•Pop Coverage: 40%•Geo Coverage: 27%•60% Urban Pop(34 cities)•2000 km roads
PHASE II
•Pop Coverage: 60%•Geo Coverage: 55%•80% Urban Pop(135 cities)•4000 km roads
PHASE III & IV(including EV-DO)•Pop Coverage: 90%•Geo Coverage: 78%•98% Urban Pop (250 cities)•6300 km roads
Zapp: Terminals Evolution
pg11
Low-end
Medium - end
High - end
Special Handsets
Zapp: Subscribers
pg11
Subscribers
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Apr-05
Zapp Case Study
Usage & Performance Statistics
Voice: 1x Time Usage (MoU/sub)
pg11
Total Minutes Of Usage per Subscriber (IN+OUT)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Nov-02
Dec-02
Jan-03
Feb-03
Mar-03
Apr-03
May-03
Jun-03
Jul-03
Aug-03
Sep-03
Oct-03
Nov-03
Dec-03
Jan-04
Feb-04
Mar-04
Apr-04
May-04
Jun-04
Jul-04
Aug-04
Sep-04
Oct-04
Nov-04
Dec-04
Jan-05
Feb-05
Mar-05
Mobile to Mobile (org+trm) PSTN (inc+out) MOBIFON (inc+out)MOBILROM (inc+out) COSMOROM (inc+out) INTERNATIONAL (inc+out)Voice Mail (inc+out) NMT (inc+out) Termination (from Ext)Total (inco+out)
- CSR > 98.5% (MO & MT)- HOSR > 99% (SHO & HHO)- DCR < 0.6% (voice)- RFER < 0.8% (voice)
HDR: ZIE Time Usage (hours/sub)
pg11
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
Hou
rs
Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05
Average Usage (Duration)
ZIE 100
ZIE 15
- ZIE 15 costs $19 and bundles 15 hours of HDR and 1xRTT data service usage- ZIE 100 costs $39 and bundles 100 hours of HDR and 1xRTT data service usage
HDR: ZIE Volume Usage (MB/sub)
pg11
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
MB
Nov-04 Dec-04 Jan-05 Feb-05 Mar-05
Average Usage (MB)
ZIE 100ZIE 15
- More than 99% of FL packets served @ 300 kbps or higher- Throughput per active user is 80 kbps as of 5 min average aggregate
3232
March 2005 BREW Revenues: $21,930 ($ 4.5 ARPU )A total of 9,740 downloads performed by 3,355 Z710i, 641 Z510i and 939 Z720i distinct users in March 2005
Zapp Me (#downloads)
Browser de Zapp8.9%
RingTone JukeBox3.9%
M eteo by DigitAIR17.6%
Logizmo10.6%
Wallpaper de Wiz3.6%
Jail Trail 2.8%
Other2.2%
Email by Zapp3.3%
Hook-up Nurses3.2%
Pocket FHM6.5%
Air Raid5.4%
Lines Tournament4.3%
Xringer Z710i3.0%
*) Source: Data Mining and Billing Departments**) Includes Z510i FREE Access Nov promotion
BREW Revenues
$20,897
$19,445
$21,930
$19,331
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Revenues Distinct Users Downloads
BREW: Zapp Me Download Usage
Zapp Case Study
Next Product Solutions
BrewChat: VoIP PTT
VoIP: EV-DO Connectivity
MSC
Number:YCalled
GSM Sponsor system
Zapp site
Romania
HLR
GSM Sponsor Roaming Center
GSM SponsorMSC
GSMSponsorHLR
STP SS7 ISUP orSDN PRI
VMS
SMSC
VLR
Visited country
Zapp Roamer
Income call A-Z
CFU X’
X
CFU X’’
4
3
1
2
5
7
8
Z6A
6B
Voice connection
GSM Signaling
SMSC Signaling
Y = Zapp CDMA sub
X = GSM roaming MSISDN
X' = Zapp Number.
X" = Linku Number.
Z = GSM Dynamic Mapping
Roaming: Call-Forward/Call-BackRoaming: Call-Forward/Call-BackZapp – GSM Sponsor connectionZapp Zapp –– GSM Sponsor connectionGSM Sponsor connection
InternetCdma Mobile Link
Internet802.11b/g
Internet802.11b/g
Data Repeater & RouterData Repeater & Router
Low Cost in-building data coverage solution ($60/unit)High interoperability based on USB, Ethernet & Wi-Fi interfaces (no drivers required)Large number of applications based on Linux open source
Voice & Data Repeater (0.1 & 1W)Voice & Data Repeater (0.1 & 1W)
Low Cost in-building coverage solution