ypla strategic analysis: south west summary

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s Learning

Strategic AnalysisSouth West Summary

[email protected] Analysis Manager

YPLA Western Territory


This presentation

1. Context2. Participation2. The Learning Landscape4. Attainment & Progression

YPLA SW Strategic Analysis TeamChampioning Young People’s LearningChampioning Young People’s Learning

South West 16-18 Population Projections 000s

175.0

180.0

185.0

190.0

195.0

200.0

205.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

2008-2017SW 11% decline 16-18s

Eng 13% decline 16-18s

Plymouth 19% decline

N.Soms 1% decline

over 6,700 fewer2011-2015


Major industries in the South West

50% of all jobs

0100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000

Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10


% of 16-18s in jobs without training

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Mar-07

Aug-07

Jan-0

8Jun-08

Nov-08

Apr-09

Sep-09

Feb-10

Jul-10

Dec-10

May

-11

Eng

SW

Devon

Soms


Resident 16-19s leaving JSA to go into learning

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350Au

g-99

Feb-

00

Aug-

00

Feb-

01

Aug-

01

Feb-

02

Aug-

02

Feb-

03

Aug-

03

Feb-

04

Aug-

04

Feb-

05

Aug-

05

Feb-

06

Aug-

06

Feb-

07

Aug-

07

Feb-

08

Aug-

08

Feb-

09

Aug-

09

Feb-

10

Aug-

10

Feb-

11

Aug-

11

HSBC USsub-primewarning

LehmanBros.

bankrupt

UKeconomy

inrecession


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% of SW 16-18s NEET

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Sep-

07

Dec

-07

Mar

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Dec

-08

Mar

-09

Jun-

09

Sep-

09

Dec

-09

Mar

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Dec

-10

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

England

SouthWestB&NES

Bristol

UK economyin recession


Participation by SW 16-17s

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009


Increasing presence of Academies –SW 16-18s

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

2007/08S04

2008/09S04

2009/10S04

2010/11S02

2011/12allocated

Maintained

Academies


16-18 participation and population trends andprojections

105,000

110,000

115,000

120,000

125,000

130,000

135,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Measured Projected

Participation

Population


Annual 16-18 participation change required tohit 2013 RPA target

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

population

participation


SW learners by level

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

EntryLevel

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 OtherLevel

EntryLevel

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 OtherLevel

FE School Sixth Forms

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

nearly half ofFE learnersare @ L3

78% of SSFlearners @ L3- static

10%reduction


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16-18 travel to learn – major flows

38%500Bournemouth &Poole

Poole

38%500Bournemouth &Poole

DorsetGreaterBournemouth

51%500CirencesterSwindon

no trend300Swindon College

-8%300New CollegeWiltshireSwindon

13%900South DevonDevonGreater Devon

23%400BrockenhurstDorset

no trend500BrockenhurstBournemouth

21%200Totton

19%400SparsholtWiltsinto Hants

154%*500St. Brendan's

no trend700City of Bristol[Bristol]

South Gloucs

-13%800Filton

no trend300City of Bristol[S.Gloucs]

BristolGreater Bristol

3 year trendNumberLearnsLives


Number of 16-25s at ISPs, 2005/06 = 100%

88 @£46keach

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2005/2

006

2006/

2007

2007

/2008

2008

/200

9

2009

/201

0

2010/

2011

Cornwall

Dorset

South West

England

c.400 @£44k each

c.600 @£54k each


SW 16-18 SSF / Acad learning aims

35% ‘STEM’ -steady

Science &Maths =nearly 30% ofall SW SSFAims


SW 16-18 FE learning aims by subject

16% ‘STEM’– risingslightly


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Level 2 at 19

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10

Pe

rcen

tag

eA

ttai

nm

ent

Bristol B&NES SOUTH WEST ENGLAND


Level 3 at 19

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

19 in 2004/05 19 in 2005/06 19 in 2006/07 19 in 2007/08 19 in 2008/09 19 in 2009/10

Per

cen

tage

Att

ainm

ent

B&NES Swindon SOUTH WEST ENGLAND


FSM gap at 19, levels 2 & 3

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

Corn

wal

l

Glou

cest

ersh

ire

Sout

hW

est

Engl

and

Corn

wal

l

Glou

cest

ersh

ire

Sout

hW

est

Engl

and

Level 2 Level 3

19 in 2004/05

19 in 2005/06

19 in 2006/07

19 in 2007/08

19 in 2008/09

19 in 2009/10


Attainment by 19 of learners attending SWschools at 15

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Englishand/ormaths

NeitherEnglish

nor maths

Englishand maths

English ormaths orneither

No level 2 at 16 Level 2 at 16

No level 3 attained

Level 3 attained

ypla strategic analysis: south west summary

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