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You Are A RISK ManagerThe Least

A Manager Should Know

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Effect ofUncertainty on

ObjectivesISO 31000

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Safety

Defence

Medical

Engineering

Operation

Project

Risk is the potential

that a chosen action oractivity (including the

choice of inaction) will

lead to a loss (anundesirable outcome)

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RiskIssue

Problem

May Be FutureCertain Future

Now

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Money, Health, HappinessSales, Collection, Profit

Cost, Quality, Schedule

PersonalOperation

Project

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Apple

Palm

Blackberry

Nokia

Ericson

Sony

WhyHow

What

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What? How? Why?

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WHY

Effect

UncertaintyObjectives

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Go

als

Ob

jectives

Purpo

se

Passion

Vision

Mission

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1. Best performance

2. Least cost

3. On time

4. Least surprises

Objective

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1. Lender

2. Insurer

3. Contract

4. Governance

Uncertainty

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Effects

Property Damage.

Liability to 3rd Party.Injury.

Dispute.

Negligence.

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Code of Hammurabi; 1772 BC

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1. The disproportionate

role of high-impact,hard-to-predict, rare

events

2. The non-

computability of theprobability of the

consequential rare

events

3. The psychological

biases that make people

blind to uncertainty

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Pop Quiz

2007196911121972

20 07 1969 11 12 1972What did Eugene "Geno" Cernan did

on 11 December 1972Last man on the Moon on Apollo 17

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HOW

Context

AnalyzeEvaluate

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Understand

1. Things You Know,

You Know2. You Know, You

Dont Know

3. You Dont Know,You Dont Know

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Analyze

Impact

Likelihood

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Evaluate

Opportunity

Threat

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Prioritize

IncreaseGood

ReduceBad

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Decide

Accept

Share

Avoid

Mitigate

Reduce likelihoodReduce Impact

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Control

Preventive

Detective

Directive

Corrective

Process

Inspect

Instruct

Recover

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WHAT

Risk Plan

RiskRegisterRiskReport

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3 Parts 5 Steps

Context

Identify

Analyze

Evaluate

Review

Risk Assessment

Report

Risk Register

Risk ManagementPlan

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Risk Assessment

1. To CRO, Senior Management or Board

2. Status of operation or project

3. Assumptions that remains right or otherwise.4. List of High Risks.

5. List of Critical Risks or risks which have turn

into Problem.6. Status of Control and Responses to risks.

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Risk Register

1. How much are the financial exposure?

2. What are the High and Critical Risks?

3. How much control do we have?4. How should we respond to the risks?

5. What can we do to improve control?

6. What are most urgent and important actionthat we need to take right now?

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Risk Management Plan

1. What is the project about and objectives?

2. What are the assumptions ?

3. Who are the project team members?4. What macro uncertainties do we have?

5. When and how are we going to identify

micro uncertainties?6. What do we do when Risks turn into

Problem?

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1. Risk Management Plan

What do we have?What to do?

When to review?

Whatever.Just do it.

Why review?

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2. Risk Register Concept

1. Context

2. Identify3. Analyze

4. Evaluate

5. Review

When, Where

List, Cause, SourceLikelihood x Impact

Weak / Maybe / Good

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Risk Register Template

Risk Description Likelihood Impact Contol Effect Priority

Late for office due

to bad traffic

causing discipline

problem at work

Likely Moderate Set alarm

clock at

5.30am

Loss of

income

NU / NI

Store caught firedue to inadequate

fire safety

measaure causing

loss of stock.

Unlikely High Install firealarm, smoke

sensor and

fire

extinguisher

RM10k U / NI

Factory floodedcausing lack of raw

materials and

completed

products not able

to be exported.

Rare Extreme BusinessInteruption

Insurance

RM10m NU / I

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3. Reporting Risk Concept

1. High Risks2. Critical Risks

3. Problems

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1. Challenge

what ispossible.

2. Improve, to

help others

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Learning from Apple

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Next

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Greenland, Ilulissat, Underwater image of icebergs floating near face of Jakobshavn Isfjord

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Anwar Ahmad Abidin

twitter.com/xanwara

+6 019-6649328