you ain’t seen nothing yet by daniel petre ao welcome to the presentation of
TRANSCRIPT
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YOU AIN’T SEEN NOTHING YET
by
Daniel Petre AO
Welcome to the presentation of
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Disruption
Everything is changing.Change is accelerating.
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“We ain’t seen nothing yet”
• Mobile Expansion• Increased line speed• Social Network Power• Internet of Things• Machine Learning• Advanced Robotics• 3D Manufacturing• Big Data• Network Effect• Global Platforms
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How things have Already Changed
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Re-Imagination of Computing Devices
THEN(Desktops / Notebooks)
NOW(Tablets / Smartphones)
6Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Connectivity
THEN NOW
7Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of News + Information Flow
THEN
Delayed / Dedicated Reporters + Cameramen / Regional or National Reach
NOW(Twitter)
Real-Time / Citizen Reporting via Mobile Devices / Global Reach
8Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Magazines
THEN
Piles of Print Copies
NOW(Flipboard)
More Content / Always Up-To-Date / Personalized / Access Everywhere / Interactive (Video + Audio) / Share
9Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Books
THEN NOW(Amazon Kindle / Apple iBooks)
10Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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THEN
Buy Albums + CDs in Stores / Playback via Dedicated Players
NOW(Spotify)
Discovery of Music Through Friends + Experts / Instant On-Demand Streaming on
Internet- Enabled Devices
Re-Imagination of Music
11Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Video
THEN
Physical Retail / Rental Stores
NOW(YouTube / Netflix)
On-Demand / Instant Streaming / Accessible Everywhere
12Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Yellow Pages
THEN
Big Heavy Printed Business Listings / No Reviews / No Easy Search Feature
NOW(Yelp)
User Reviews / Pictures / Recommendations / Location-Aware / Easily
Searchable
13Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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THEN
Linear Programming / Pre-Set Channels / Little Control Over Content
NOW(YouTube Channels / Bleacher Team
Stream)On Demand Personalized Content on Big Screen
Re-Imagination of TV
14Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Navigation + Live Traffic Info
THEN
Physical Copies of Map in Car / TV, Radio Reporting of Traffic Info
NOW(Waze)
User-Generated Digital Map / Live Crowd-Sourced Traffic Data
15Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Calling a Cab
THEN
Long Lines During Rush Hours / Rain / Some Areas May Not Have
Taxis Roaming on Streets
NOW(Uber)
One-Tap Taxi Call / Location-Aware / Electronic Payment
16Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Coupons + Local Services
THEN
Non-Personalized / Smaller Discounts / Easily Lost or Forgotten
NOW(Groupon )
Personalized / Location-Aware / Instant Deals / Group-buying Discount
60Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Cash Registers THEN
Big + Odd Looking Machines / Receipt Printers Cash Drawers
NOW(Square)
Simple + Elegant Tablet + Square Reader / Email Receipts / Touch Signing
18Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Marketplaces
THEN
Tent + Pickup Truck @ Street Fairs
NOW(Etsy)
Integrated Platform For Listings / Advertising / Payment / Inventory
Management
19Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Idea Building / Funding
THEN
Flyers / Loudspeakers / Dinners / Checks
NOW(KickStarter)
Online / Social Distribution / Real-Time Progress
20Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Personal Borrowing / Lending
THEN
Borrowers – Paper Application / Lengthy Approval Process / High Interest Rates
Investors – Little Access For Retail Investors / No Customization Based on Risk
Tolerance
NOW(Lending Club)
Borrowers – Online Application / Funded in Days / Lower Interest Rates
Investors – Easy Customization / Diversification / Better Returns
21Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Healthcare Access
THEN
Call to Make Appointments / Days or Weeks to See Doctors
NOW(ZocDoc / Teladoc)
On-Demand Access to Doctors in Minutes or Same Day / In Person or Via Phone Video Call
22Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Government Subsidies
THEN
Gather in Town / Wait in Line to Receive Subsidies
NOW
200MM+ Farmers in India Receive Government Subsidies Via Mobile Devices*
79Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Re-Imagination of Learning
From learning by listening to learning by doing Education and learning will become as much fun as videogames. And we call it ‘full body learning’.
Bing Gordon Partner, KPCB
THEN NOW
24Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Summary Snapshot –Current Drivers of Change
• Continued Device innovation
– Wearable computers, Internet of things
• Shift to mobile as the dominant device for all
consumer services (Tablet and Phone)
• Nearly ubiquitous high-speed wireless access
• Impact of massive data and better algorithms
• Machine Learning and Robotics
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Internet of Things
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Internet of Things – Home/ Consumer
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Internet of Things – Smart PaverPavegen
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Internet of Things – Smart Inhaler
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Internet of Things – Smart Dispenser Adheretech
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Internet of Things – Smart city
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Internet of Things – Smart AgricultureSilent Herdsman
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Summary Snapshot – Current Drivers of Change
• Consumers want all content/information everywhere
and at any time
• Social Graph becomes the platform for
curation/recommendation/sourcing
• Social emerging as starting distribution point for
content
• Global Service/Content Providers able to reach
millions of new users in record (& accelerating) time
• Truly Global markets
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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State of Play
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Nearly 3 billion people online
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About half left to go!
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(But most of the money is already online)
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Wearables are beginning to take off…
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Eyeballs are moving to digital, especially mobile
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Newspaper ad revenue has collapsed
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“Over-the-top” video is real and growing fast.
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TV may be next
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Value (and power) are still very concentrated
$1081 Market Value
**Market cap the week of October 14
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“New media” dwarfs “old media” in market value
**Market cap the week of October 14
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11 billion WhatsApp messages sent each day
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758 million pictures shared each day
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350 million Snapchat pictures sent a day
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SOCIAL
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1/7th of the world’s population use Facebook
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MOBILE
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PCs are now small share of connected devices…
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And will soon dwarf them
We are here
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E-COMMERCE
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E-Commerce continues to take share…
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-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
Sal
es g
row
th (
%)
Australian Retail Sales 1983 - 2013
Australian Retail Performance
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Ecommerce –Where is Australia ?
• Slow to react
– Challenges the status quo
– Disruption(Myers, DJs, Retail, Real Estate play)
• International presence
– Price, range, CRM, logistics
– Ebay, Amazon, ASOS, long tail
• Opportunities
– Nordstrom example
– Logistics, Infrastructure
Source: KPCB Internet Trends Mary Meeker 12/3/2012
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Education
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• Two threats
• The US has woken up• Aggressive pursuit of Chinese Students• Local campus affiliations
• Our share will naturally decline to more normalised levels
• MOOCS & Adaptive Learning Platforms• See the best lecturer• Personalised Learning Tools• Accreditation control (Universities) is under
threat
McKinsey & Co
Education
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The Economist
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• Mobile Internet • Automation of knowledge work • The Internet of Things • Cloud technology • Advanced robotics • Autonomous and near-autonomous vehicles • Next-generation genomics • Energy storage • 3D printing • Advanced materials • Advanced oil and gas exploration and recovery • Renewable energy
McKinsey & Co
What are the coming disruptive Technologies
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So what?
It is all aboutJobs
&
Investment
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Destruction/Disruption
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Skills and Jobs
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Investment
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Text
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• The world is one global market• Scale matters• Change driven by Technology is accelerating
• Technology is the underlying catalyst• Business is becoming more complex
• Requiring higher levels of IQ• Requiring an understanding of Tech platforms
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• We are generally not a scale or global player• Multi-nationals not paying their way
• We are not priming the engine of the future• We do not have a viable VC industry• We do not fund enough Research• We need more STEM students• We need our companies to do REAL R&D
• The future can’t be just about Mining and Agriculture
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Appendix
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Ten markers
• % of Australian Households on the Net• Hours of Internet use per day• Balance of Trade on Australia’s Information Account• Number of Australian Online sistes with > 500K users• Number of students graduating from Online
Media/Computing Programmes• Number of Boards with Online specialists• Electronic Commerce in Australia’s largest Companies• Government commitment to online services• Use of computers in Australian Schools
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Questions
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On behalf of
The Hon. Mal Brough MP and
The Sunshine Coast Business Community
THANK YOU DANIEL