yatırım süreçleri ve değerleme - ali h. karabey
TRANSCRIPT
ITU CEKIRDEK DECEMBER 8, 2016
@akarabey
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ALI H. KARABEY @akarabey
• Partner @ 212
• Financial Management
• Fund Raising
• Business Development
• Life before 212
• Arthur Andersen, New York, TMT Corporate Finance M&A
• Morgan Stanley, New York / London, Financial Operations / Internal M&A
• Deutsche Bank, London, Principal Investments
• University of Michigan
212
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TURKEY: GROWING MARKET WITH STRONG DEMOGRAPHICS
96%
43%
47%
43%
72%
57%
28%
… fuelled by young and tech savvy population
Urban Rural
Mobile penetration
Facebook penetration
Internet penetration
Under the age of 24
72 M Mobile Subscribers
32 M Facebook Users
35 M Internet Users
75 M Total Population
32 M Young Population
Sources: US Census Bureau, Internet WorldStats, Facebook, ITU World Bank Database 2013 Population Data, February 2015 ICTA Market Report Q3-2014
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GDP per capita (current US$)
Success stories are emerging…
Economic growth has been impressive…
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OPPORTUNITY FOR TECHNICAL TEAMS TO DISTRUPT THE STATUS QUO
46% 52%
60% 61%
44% 49%
82% 80%
22% 17%
17% 17%
14%
19%
6% 8% 32% 31% 23% 22%
42%
31%
12% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Czech R. Poland Brazil Mexico South Africa World Avg Turkey 2014 Turkey2019E
Hardware Software Service
Source : TURKSTAT, IDC, IMF, Unlu&C0, 212 Estimates
Decomposition of IT Spending in Comparable Economies
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TURKISH NEXUS (EXODUS?) – TOP 10 RAISED +USD400M VC FUNDING
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ACCESS TO EARLY STAGE INVESTMENT HAS A MATERIAL IMPACT
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
In the last 10 years start-ups with access to early stage financing scaled significantly faster than earlier
entrants, reaching comparable valuations in less time
Year Founded
Cu
rre
nt
Va
lua
tio
n*
US
D m
Received investment within 3-years following year of founding
* 212 Estimates
Note: Sahibinden and Hepsiburada excluded as they are captive start-ups
≈ 600
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VC FUNDING – SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING
1 14 16
186
423
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Turkey China Europe US Israel
Relative VC Funding Per Capita
Source : Startups.Watch, Zirra Wisdom
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EUROPE
European Countries Ranked
by Their Most Well-Funded Startup since 20141
1- Source : CB Insights 2014-2016 (7/2016)
EUROPE?
Company HQ
Spotify Sweden
Delivery Hero Germany
BlaBlaCar France
FarFetch United Kingdom
Ozon.ru Russian Federation
Adyen Netherlands
Future Finance Ireland
Cabify Spain
Trustpilot Denmark
Avast Software Czech Republic
NEXThink Switzerland
Vinted Lithuania
TTTech Austria
CCP Games Iceland
M-Files Finland
poLight Norway
Carmudi Luxembourg
DocPlanner Poland
UniPlaces Portugal
Itineris Belgium
ShopFully Group Italy
invest.com Cyprus
Lingvist Estonia
Iyzico Turkey
ADASWorks Hungary
CloudPayments Latvia
Busfor Ukraine
Pollfish Greece
Gjirafa Albania
NETOPIA Systems Romania
Oddsium Malta
Content Insights Serbia
SaferPass Slovakia
USD2.3bn
USD100m
USD266m
USD9m
USD1m
USD31m
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212 FUND I
CREATING LEADERS • Leading Turkish early and growth stage investment team
• Founded in 2012
• Fund I
• AUM $30 million
• 12investments out of +1,500 Companies reviewed
• Limited Partners include family offices and entrepreneurs
Founded
2012
Fund I Size
$30M
Diverse
investment
team of
3
Invested
In 12 out of +1500
FOCUSED INVESTMENT STRATEGY
• Proprietary deal flow
• Sector – Digital media, e-commerce, fintech, market places, mobile, platform,
software, tech in media, healthcare and education
• Geography – Turkey focused
• Leading investments from early stage to growth capital
• Active role
• High-quality syndicate partners and angels
VALUE CREATION THROUGH ACTIVE INVOLVEMENT • Active involvement helping portfolio companies become disruptive players
through sector expertise
• Leverage relevant network: successful entrepreneurs and emerging leaders
in Turkey, Europe and US
• Top-tier co-investors in the region
Focus on
Internet &
Tech
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212 – BUILDING A VC
Number of Blog Posts Website Activity Advised & Assisted
People Interviewed International Media Events
+50 Blog Posts
+200 Interviews conducted for portfolio
company recruitment
Attended +280
Presented +190
Countries 30
Views +100K
Countries +30
Others
University Lectures
Standard Seed/Angel
investment agreement
initiative
212 Talks
212 Coffee Meetings
Kauffman Fellowship
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212’s DEAL FLOW WITH NUMBERS
26%
E-COMMERCE
26%
OTHER
16%
SOFTWARE
8%
MOBILE WIRELESS
3%
ENTERPRISE
21%
CONSUMER WEB
DEAL FLOW BY INDUSTRY
DEAL SOURCES
40
+1500
12
DEAL FUNNEL
INTRODUCTIONS
CONFERENCE
INVESTORS
WEBSITE
OTHERS
44%
11% 11%
27%
7%
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PORTFOLIO CO-INVESTORS
USD22M from 212
+USD55M in total
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TOP PERFORMERS
•
• Payment Services Provider powering merchants with a platform with various value added services such as recurring billing, credit
card storage, mobile SDK, international payments
• +500% transaction growth YoY, +2.5K merchants, entering Iran
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• SaaS-based management and digital marketing platform for hotels and suppliers of short-term lodging
• +24,000 properties, +125 OTAs, and +100 marketplace partners in 127 countries
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• SaaS provider of advanced supply chain optimization solutions
• Home Depot, Vestel, A101
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• B2B marketplace for the promotion and sales of automotive parts directly to car services
• +15m parts from 30brands, reaching +11K services across Turkey
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• Software enables websites and mobile applications to create highly personalized experience with automated behavioral targeting
• 5 International offices
• Singapore Airlines, Uniqlo, Virgin
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YATIRIM SÜREÇLERİ
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YATIRIM
• Ne amaçla
• Ne zaman
• Kimden
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TOPLANTI ÖNCESİ
#1 Yatırımcıyı gözünüzde büyütmeyin…
#2 Yatırımcı ile kurdugunuz ilk iletişim…
#3 Toplantıya zamanında gelin…
#80 Yatırımcılarla kontağa geçmeden önce ev ödevinizi yapın…
#19 VC daha önce kimlere yatırım yapmış öğrenin, bunlarla konuşmayı talep
edin, potansiyel ortaklarınızın güçlü ve zayıf yönlerini bilin
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TOPLANTI & SONRASI
#61 Yaptığınız her sunum, paylaştığınız her doküman, email işinizin ve
ekibinizin vitrini
#23 Mümkün olduğu kadar fazla yatırımcı ile konuşun
#97 Yatırımcılara en son ne zaman bir güncelleme attınız?
#36 Yatırım almayan girişim başarısız olacak diye bir şey asla yok. Enseyi
karartmayın.
#37 Yatırım alanların başarılı olmasının hala düşük bir ihtimal olduğunu da
atlamayın
#38 Bu VC denen adamların her dedikleri doğru çıksa şu an aynı masada
oturmuyordunuz
DEĞERLEME
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VC’den çok temiz kullanılmış iPhone 6 64GB
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‘DOĞRU’ DEĞERLEME?
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‘DOĞRU’ DEĞERLEME?
• S&P 500
• In order to be added to the index, a company must satisfy liquidity-based size
requirements
• Market capitalization >= USD5.3 billion
• Annual dollar value traded to float-adjusted market capitalization >1.0
• Minimum monthly trading volume of 250,000 shares
• 2013 - USD264 billion
• 2014 - USD179 billion
• 2015 - USD5.79 trillion
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BLIND MEN AND AN ELEPHANT
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DEĞERLEME
• Ne amaçla
• Ne zaman
• Kim tarafından
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DEĞERLEME
• Discounted cash flow (DCF)
• Comparable transactions method
• Multiples method
• …
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DEĞERLEME
#55 Doğru değer diye bir şey yok
#14 şirketinizin 2-3 yıllık bir mazisi yoksa DCF modeli vs kullanarak şirketinize
değer biçmek gibi bir faaliyete girişmeyin
#13 Değerleme, alacağınız yatırım, vereceğiniz % hakkında gerçekçi olun.
#72 Her yatırımcının şirketinizi değerleme şekli farklı olacaktır.
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ÖNEMLİ OLAN
1. Yatırım - Şirket doğru miktarı aldı mı
2. İki taraf da masadan mutlu kalkıyor mu
3. Yapılan ortaklık, anlaşılan şartlar bundan sonraki adımları kolaylaştırıyor mu
BEN NEYE BAKIYORUM?
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MASA DA KİM OTURUYOR?
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HANGİ YATIRIMCILAR ÇOKTAN MASADA?
• Girişimci(ler)
• Çalışanlar
• Müşteriler
• Mentörler
• Yatırımcılar
• …
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