www.vsnlinternational.com a new telecom world unfolding - the ipv6 factor yves poppe director – ip...

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A new Telecom World unfolding - The IPv6 factor

Yves PoppeDirector – IP Strategy

First Thailand IPv6 SummitMay 2-4, 2006 - Bangkok


Agenda

Why the acceleration?

Some perceived drivers

VSNL - Teleglobe and IPv6



A View from the Top

“ With the internet and the proliferation of semiconductors, you’ll end up with trillions of things connected – not just individuals but cars, roads, homes, appliances, health-care data, and pacemakers. All of these things are available today that weren’t available in the past. In a way, everybody needs a challenge or the threat to get them going. The threat is that all these competitors are coming on-line that have global capabilities. They’re all enabled by these technologies… »

Samuel J. Palmisano, Chairman IBM, interviewed by Business Week - April 3th 2006 North-American issue, pp 52-53



Why the Acceleration?

A telecom Industry desperate for stability and renewed revenue growth: Coming out of a major recession; relentless technological change; changing

regulatory environments; consolidation; globalization.

Consensus : the next multibillion revenue opportunities imply IP based network convergence, multi-functional end-devices, always on, always p2p reachable, mobile and endowed with end to end security.

Intense pressure on existing carrier business models with the advent of VoIP and new broadband wireless technologies

Visions of ubiquitous communications between billions of devices ranging from home networks to global sensor and RFID networks.



Convergence and disintermediation

Multiplicity of convergences Network: IP convergence Access: Fixed and wireless convergence End device: multimedia convergence Service provision: convergence (triple, quad play)

Disintermediation Applications, from voice to MP3 download to home security to TV distribution,

independent of telecomm infrastructure provider Results in current debate on “network neutrality”



Blurring distribution models

The old order: discrete and distinct Telecom: voice, fixed and mobile, data, internet Broadcasters : radio, TV Music industry Movie industry Print and publishing Advertising Gaming, gambling Home entertainment Production control, goods tracking Services: banking, travel, auctions, sales of goods



Some pitfalls of IP convergence

The internet currently suffers from: Uneven distribution & looming shortage of IP addresses Inadequacy for mobile networking Unability for plug an play reconfiguration Elusive quality: QoS not on par with TDM & ATM Major network and user security issues:

Bad guy tricks: phishing, pharming, bots, typosquatting… Internet fraud complaints in the US: from 48,252 in 2002 to 207,449 in 2004(*) After Spam : Spim (Instant messaging Spam) and Spit (Internet Telephony spam)

(*): Internet Crime Complaint Center, as reported by BW May 30 2005 issue



IP convergence: the IPv6 factor

Solves address shortage Restores p2p Mobility

Better spectrum utilization Better battery life!

Security Ipsec mandatory

Multicast Better QoS (flow labels)


Neighbour discovery Ad-Hoc networking Home networks Plug and play Auto configuration

Permanent addresses Identity (CLID) Traceability (RFID) Sensors and monitoring

ADSL, cable, 3G, Wi-Fi, Wi-Max provide the always-on


IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence

To make a commercial reality of the IP convergence vision is impossible without moving to a new IP version The current one (IPv4) deployed on 01 /01/1983 is totally inadequate to meet

current network needs. IPv6 is the only way out of current IP address shortage for major developing

economies such as China and India. Essential for mobility, improved security and QoS Essential for plug and play home networking, mobile ad-hoc networks

(MANET’s) and networks in motion (NEMO’s) Critical component for session and event based billing in the 3G and B3G

(Beyond 3G) world based on IMS and SIP. One of the building stones toward ITU-T defined NGN



Some New Telecom World drivers

Application domains: Mobile IP Voice, radio, TV over IP Grid Massive multiplayer games RFID, control and sensor networks Microsoft

Critical mass of: digital communicating end-user devices high speed always on access

National policies: Research and Education networks National Defense National/regional policies and economic weight


Disruptive on most existing carrier business models


17 billion Networkable Devices!

Sun Microsystems estimates that including sensor and RFID networks the world could have a trillion communicating devices in a decade!



Mobile communications: What a market!

As reported by 3G Americas www.3gamericas.org 2 billion devices was reached sometime mid 2005!



IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence

After the European bidding excesses and initial equipment delays 3G finally take off

Number of 3G/UMTS users reached 35 million by mid 2005; 50 million units were forecasted by end 2005 !

Saturation in mobile voice stimulates interest in « rich media » high speed applications, seamless wireless mobility, location based services information. The MNO dilemma is the risk of becoming a bit pipe implied by the move to data.

IMS (Internet Multimedia subsystem) is key to the billing of these new services services and IPv6 essential for a scaleable IMS approach.



Mobile: Japan shows the way

Graph by CIAJ (Communication & Information Association of Japan)



IPv6: prerequisite for IP convergence Disruptive effect of the Skype phenomenon : 150 million downloads, 8

billion plus minutes, 1.5 million users on-line after two years. In North-America: 400+ providers Japan’s Yahoo BB is the biggest VoIP provider

Market will really explode with dual wi-fi/cellphone end-devices

What role for Google, Microsoft, E-Bay, Apple iPhone?

Enterprise VoIP: Q1 05 PBX shipments: 15% pure IP (rev. +36%) , 57% hybrid, 28% TDM ; 2008 forecast: 28% IP, 67%

hybrid, 8% TDM (Infonetics) IP centrex market starts to take off: perfect match for IPv6



Digital radio, mobile TV and IPTV

Other neologisms : podcast(ing) and mobisodes. Radio delivered by web, satellite and cellphones. HD-Radio : CD quality sound; digital plus data

alongside existing AM or FM channels. Barriers to entry to a 21 billion $ industry (in the US) go down; XM,

Sirius, Yahoo, MSN new names in broadcasting. Mobile TV: Qualcomm MediaFlo vs. Modeo Consortium Mobile broadcast : Potentially 270 million subs worldwide by 2009 (Visiongain) Forecasts of 200 million digital TV’s worldwide by 2007 and 20 million IPTV

subscribers by 2008 (IPTV News)



Grids

Going mainstream IBM : 11 datacenters around the world as computing grid Sun Microsystems; grid on demand service Globus Consortium with IBM, Sun, Intel etc promote de facto standard numerous trials in the R&E world


ESG


Multiplayer games

On-line gaming More than 5 million subscribers for most popular titles Average 20 hours/week on-line! Monthly fee 10 to 15US$ Sales of virtual goods reached US$200 million! Japan on-line gaming to reach 93.8 billion yen end 2005! Multiplayer cellphone gaming takes of exponentially

On-line gambling Virtual poker tables, tournaments etc. Partygaming IPO : US$ 9 billion valuation June 2005



RFID’s

January 2005: The bandwagon started rolling Wal-Mart Stores and DoD mandatory

RFID support programs started.

Generalized RFID implies terabytes of traffic daily. RFID for authentication and for traceability: drugs, passports, banknotes,

secure papers, concert entry ticket, casino chips, luggage tags …. 3.1 billion tags for pallets&cases in 2006; by 2008 a US$7.26B market

with 15.3 billion tags for pallets &cases and 6.8 for non retail item level (luggage etc) 48% Asia, 32 % North America by 2010 (source: IDTechEx analysis).



Sensor networks Self organizing sensor networks

Darpa sensit, Smart Dust, motes and follow-up projects Pervasive computing, context-aware computing etc. Habitat, water&pollution levels, structural integrity, biomedical

Intel’s vision Intel Deep Networking projects: “Locally networking billions of embedded nodes, driving computing

deeper into the infrastructure that surrounds us.” Intel Mote: “Motes are tiny, self-contained, battery-powered computers with radio links, which enable

them to communicate and exchange data with one another, and to self-organize into ad hoc networks. Motes form the building blocks of wireless sensor networks”



Microsoft Motivation: expand application domains and revenue sources

Multiplayer games (Xbox on-line) Peer 2 peer ( end of NAT issues) Mobility (session continuity , mobile VPN, VoIP) End to end security: temporary addresses and Ipsec Secure neighbor discovery Plug and play (instant network)

Microsoft and IPv6 support Windows XP SP1, PocketPC, CE.NET have an IPv6 stack Messenger, Windows Media Player, Direct Play, Threedegrees Windows Vista will have IPv6 as default protocol. Revised release date Q1 2007



The battle for the communicating living-room

Consumer Electronic Show Vegas January 2004 and January 2005 First serious salvos in a titanic battle between the computer industry (Intel, Microsoft) and the

electronics industry (Sony, Philips, Toshiba, Panasonic..) The essence of the battle is a kind of a home « mediacenter » with all devices connected in a plug and

play mode, preferably wireless.

Consumer Electronic Show january 2006 CEA press-release jan 8th: “Convergence was a big trend on the show floor in 2006 as traditional product categories merged

together to create unique, multi-functional digital devices.”

Huge stakes: $135 billion consumer electronics market in the US alone for 2006 (Consumer Electronics Association)



Prevalence of fast digital access 150.6 million subscribers end 2004

up 26.5 million lines in 6 months (source: Point Topic) 200+ million were estimated end 2005 DSL dominates except in North America

Growth continues unabated: FT: end Q2 2005: 6.4’ subscribers +80% in 1 year Telefonica: end Q2 2005: 4’ subs +56% in 1 year UK: high speed internet connections overtake dial-up (June 05)

It took mobile phones 5.5 years to go from 10 to 100 million subscribers worldwide; Broadband achieved this in 3.5 years.

It took mobile 5.5 years to grow from 10 to 100m worldwide; Broadband achieved same growth in 3.5 years



BB: Again, Japan shows the way



Powerline Communication

Utilities are showing a growing interest Associations in North-America, Europe and Asia Standardization process accelerates Products are coming on the market after

around 100 trials in 40 countries Opens the way to networking for the myriad

home appliances all the way to the individual lightbulbs



Software Defined Radio

SDR promises seamless interoperability across virtually any wireless standard

Makes software control of operating frequencies and output power possible.. Allows for multimode, multiband, multifunctional devices to be adapted,

updated or enhanced by software Mandated by the US DoD under JTRS (Joint Tactical Radio System) program European Union formed a very active SDR group: E2R (End 2 End

Reconfigurability) Seen as essential for B3G (Beyond 3G) Standard disputes underway



Wi-Fi, Wi-Max, ZigBee, Mobile-Fi, Ultrawideband….

Disruptive even if a fraction of these market projections are achieved

Constant re-evaluation of current business models both for access and service revenues is essential.


Business Week, April 26th 2004


Wi-Fi and Wi-Max Wi-FI

120 million Wi-Fi chipsets shipped in 2005 100,000 public hotspots reached, 37K in the USA (Jiwire study,

reported in Computerworld January 23, 2006)

Wi-Max Potentially disruptive; rival for fixed BB and 3G? Intel Wi-Max ready chipset started shipping

“We want to enable the next billion broadband users” (Ron Peck, Intel director marketing WiMax, quoted in C|net apr 18th)

$250+ per access down to $50 by 2008 – price level needed for generalized inclusion in laptops, cellphones etc.

Deployments announced and starting: Clearwire, Speakeasy, AT&T, Qwest, Korea’s Wibro Jan 2006: first WiMax Forum certified products



R&E networking

R&E networks broke the IPv6 chicken and egg dilemma All major R&E networks are dual stack

Next frontier: ultra high bandwidth communication with projects such as GLIF



National Defense

US DoD decision to mandate IPv6 support was major catalyst in the US Resulted in Moonv6 test network

Australian, Canadian, German,Japanese, UK and other defense ministries plan for IPv6

NATO Interoperable Networks for Secure Communication (INSC) project has IPv6 focus

Defense mobile networking needs: adhoc networks (MANET), networks in motion (NEMO) and end system mobility are just not achievable without IPv6



IPv6 deployment: The China factor With the support from the Chinese government, China’s five major Carriers started to build the

CNGI: China Next Generation Internet Objective stated in 2004: " It will become one of the largest IPv6 networks in the world by the year

of 2005, speeding up the IPv6 R&D in China and providing tremendous business opportunities for industry global wide. "

CERnet2, China’s new R&E network is IPv6 only and connect 20 cities at speeds of 2.5 and 10 gigabit per second. Became operational in Dec-04.

Chinese officials restated that they want the Chinese internet to be completely IPv6 in time for the 2008 Olympics

China 2005 IPv6 Summit Theme was: “IPv6 & CNGI---Innovation in Action, Connecting Everything”China 2006 IPv6 Summit Theme is: “IPv6: The New Internet-The Future is Here”

2008 will be showcase for the IP converged Olympics with full deployment completed in time for the Shanghai 2010 Worldfair



China’s Next Gen Internet

CNGI fund of 1.4 billion Yuan (US$169 million) provided by the NDRC (National Development Reform Commission) to support six next generation networks



Korea’s u-IT839 U-IT839

Announced feb 8th 2006 Successor to IT839

Emphasis on ubiquity and on convergence: Mobile communications and telematics RFID and USN (ubiquitous sensor network) T-DMB(Digital Multimedia broadcasting) and DTV BCN (Broadband Converged Network) includes IPv6 Some of the 2006 objectives;

Commercialization of HSDPA and Wibro Nation wide DMB and DTV services BB internet and WLAN controlled household robot

Motivation: grow IT from 13.3% of GDP in 2006 to 21.8% in 2010



Malaysia’s MyICMS 886 blueprint Launched December 19, 2005

8 Services Broadband, 3G, Mobile TV, digital multimedia broadcasting, digital

home, RFID, VoIP, universal service provisioning

8 Infrastructures Three hard: Multi service convergence network, 3G telegram network, satellite 5 soft: IPv6, Information and network security, PC and internet adoption, computer

development and product design and manufacturing

6 Growth areas Content development, ICT education, set talk boxes, digital radio receivers, VoIP phones and

overseas investment consultancy

Motivation: grow C&M from 9.7% of GDP



India’s 10 point agenda Declared by the Honourable Minister Maran

1. Convergence of technologies

2. E-Governance

3. Broadband connectivity

4. Next Mobile Wireless

5. National Internet exchange & Indian Domain Name

6. IPv6

7. Security & digital signature

8. Media Lab Asia: seamless communication to rural areas

9. Language computing: given India’s multilingual nature

10.Outsourcing skilled manpower and R&D thrust

Will help grow IT share from current 4.8% of GDP



A high stakes game : Internet Governance! The internet juggernaut of the last decade took governments, regulators and carriers by surprise The looming IP convergence and an era of ubiquitous communications raises growing concerns

about national interests, security, privacy and control IPv6 is a once in a generation opportunity to influence governance and control of

telecommunications For the first time since IPv4 was introduced in jan1983, the internet is moving to a new protocol version

and address scheme

At stake: a more regulated structured growth versus a liberal highly creative, competitive more chaotic growth.

July 14th 2005: impasse between the U.N. and the USA. The U.N. panel presents 4 options including status-quo.

November 2005 WSIS conference in Tunis: compromise reached



VSNL & IPv6


Home Carrieror ISP

Global Carrieror ISP

Foreign Carrieror ISP

IP Convergence requires seamless connectivity


Wholesale Data | Global Footprint



Wholesale Data | IP Backbone



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Warangal

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Jaipur

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patna

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VSNL India:

114 POP’s IPv6 ready


Some concluding thoughts What will the new telecom world we are creating bring?

Homes on-line: triple or quad play; home gateways for work, entertainment, security and monitoring.

Goods on-line: tagging of practically everything Revenues on-line: whole industries attracted by the vortex Nations on-line: prerequisite to compete and generate wealth in a

increasingly global economy. Humans on-line: we will be networks in motion moving around carrying some terabytes

of information and communicating with the rest of the world at gigabit speeds Our brains on-line?

IPv6 will be a small but essential cog in this big wheel.



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Thank You!


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