www.pinnacle-advisory.com. historic perspective september 11, 2001 fear of travel economic recession
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P innacleAdvis oryG roup
www.pinnacle-advisory.com
Historic Perspective
September 11, 2001
Fear of Travel
Economic Recession
MOTT Survey
Suburban Boston
Occupancy –7 Points
Avg Rate – 5%
Boston/Cambridge
Occupancy –6 Points
Avg Rate –5%
2001 Operator Forecasted Declines as a direct result of 9-11
Suburban Boston 2001
Source: Smith Travel Research
81% 84%
56%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Monthly OccupancySeptember 1999 - 2001
Source: Smith Travel Research
71%
75%
65%
58%
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston OccupancyYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
Source: Smith Travel Research
$114.83
$120.45
$108.40
$50$60$70$80$90$100$110$120$130
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Monthly Average Daily RateSeptember 1999 - 2001
Source: Smith Travel Research
$101.63
$109.39 $110.67
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Average Daily RateYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
Source: Smith Travel Research
$92.91
$101.11
$61.07
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston Monthly RevPARSeptember 1999 - 2001
Source: Smith Travel Research
$71.95
$81.71
$71.49
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Suburban Boston RevPARYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
Occupancy: 62% (Down 11 Points)
Average Rate: $109 (Down 2 Percent)
RevPAR: $68 (Down 17 Percent)
Suburban Boston 2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston RevPAR by Quarter 1999-2001 (Forecasted)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
Rev
PAR
1999
2000
2001
Boston / Cambridge 2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
83% 88%
60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Monthly OccupancySeptember 1999-2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
76%
80%
73%
68%
70%
72%
74%
76%
78%
80%
Occupancy
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge OccupancyYear-To-Date Through September 1999-2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$228.02 $220.76
$182.84
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Monthly Average Daily RateSeptember 1999 - 2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$188.36
$195.07
$186.51
$150
$160
$170
$180
$190
$200
Average Daily Rate
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Average Daily RateYear-To-Date Through September 1999 - 2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$188.57 $193.17
$109.52
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge Monthly RevPARSeptember 1999 - 2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
$142.21
$155.47
$135.22
$125
$130
$135
$140
$145
$150
$155$160
RevPAR
1999 2000 2001
Year
Boston / Cambridge RevPARYear-To-Date Through July 1999 - 2001
Occupancy: 69% (Down 9.5 Points)
Average Rate: $186.49 (Down 7 Percent)
RevPAR: $128.57 (Down 18 Percent)
Boston / Cambridge 2001
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge RevPAR by Quarter 1999-2001 (Projected)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
AD
R
1999
2000
2001
Suburban Boston 2002
Factors Affecting The Suburban Boston Lodging Market In 2002
New SupplyStill Significant (6% vs 8%)
Citywide ConventionsWorse (15 vs. 17)
The Economy Worse Than Expected
Occupancy: Up Two Points to 64 Percent
Average Rate: Down 2 Percent to $107.30
RevPAR: Down 1 Percent to $68.73
Suburban Boston 2002
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston Occupancy by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
Occu
panc
y 2000
2001
2002
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston ADR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$85.00
$90.00
$95.00
$100.00
$105.00
$110.00
$115.00
$120.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
AD
R
2000
2001
2002
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Suburban Boston RevPAR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
RevP
AR
2000
2001
2002
Boston / Cambridge 2002
Factors Affecting The Boston/Cambridge Market In 2002
Supply Changes
Citywide Conventions
Non-Citywide Group Demand
Corporate Demand
Leisure Travelers
Supply Changes
No Change In Short-Term2.4 Percent Increase in 20014.0 Percent increase in 2002
Projects:Hampton Inn
Commonwealth HotelNine-Zero
Embassy SuitesRenovation of Ritz Carlton
Citywide Conventions
15 Citywides (Down From 17)
Loss Of Seybold will impact April
Now 2Q Looks Weak (In addition to 1Q)
Non-Citywide Group Demand
In-House Group Pace is now off
Pace Improves in 2H 02 (with economy?)
Cambridge pace is not expected to improve
Corporate Demand
Slow Recovery
Lack of compression from groupswill limit ability to drive rate
No Forecasted Economic Growth Until 2H ‘02
Leisure Demand
“All About Rate”
Increased Supply in Suburbs
Decline In International Travel
Occupancy: Up 1 Point to 70 Percent
Average Rate: Up 1 Percent to $189
RevPAR: Up 3 Percent to $131
Boston / Cambridge 2002
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge Occupancy by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
Occu
panc
y 2000
2001
2002
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge ADR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$-
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
AD
R
2000
2001
2002
Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group
Boston/Cambridge RevPAR by Quarter 2000-2002 (Projected)
$-
$20.00
$40.00
$60.00
$80.00
$100.00
$120.00
$140.00
$160.00
$180.00
$200.00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarter
ADR
2000
2001
2002
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www.pinnacle-advisory.com