www.pewcenteronthestates.org results first using cost-benefit analysis to analyze state policy...
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www.pewcenteronthestates.org
Results FirstUsing Cost-Benefit Analysis to
Analyze State Policy
August 6, 2012
www.pewcenteronthestates.org
Criminal Justice Cost-Benefit Analysis:Big Picture
• Estimate the cost of crime in your state
o Police, Jails, Courts, Probation, Prison, Post-release supervision, Victimization
• Examine programs/policies that reduce crime
• Apply the costs of crime to the programs/ policies that reduce crime to estimate their monetary benefits
www.pewcenteronthestates.org
Results First Approach
• Aggregate best national research to identify evidence-based programs that are effective
• Estimate these programs’ impact if implemented, based on a state’s unique population characteristics
• Use the state’s fiscal data to estimate total costs and benefits for each program
• Built upon the Washington State Institute for Public Policy (WSIPP)’s benefit-cost model
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Approach can be used in many ways
• Consumer Reports – compare multiple programs
• Prison Economics – examine the trade off between prisons and programs
• Cost of Recidivism – identify the benefits of avoiding one recidivist
• Same approach can be used in other policy areas
www.pewcenteronthestates.org
Probability of Resource Use
Offense
Unreported Offenses
Reported Offenses
No Arrest
Arrest
No Conviction
Conviction
Local Jail
Probation
Department of Corrections
Post-Prison Supervision
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Estimated Convictions Avoided for FFT Participants
Recidivism rates reduced by 22 percent
Without FFT
With FFT
Without FFT, an offender has a 72% chance of being reconvicted for a new felony or
misdemeanor after 15 years;
Reci
divi
sm
Rate
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Reci
divi
sm
Rate
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Follow-up Years
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Example: Functional Family Therapy(Washington State - 2010 Dollars)
Benefits Per Family Reduced crime
Increased high school graduation Reduced health care costs
$31,745$5,686
$307
$37,739Total Benefits Per Family
Cost Per Family $3,190
Net Present Value $34,549
Benefits Per Dollar of Cost $11.86
Main Source of Benefits
Lower state & victim costs
Increased earnings
Lower public costs
Addendum (distribution of benefits)$3,599 = Benefits to participant$8,336 = Benefits to taxpayers$21,636 = Benefits to others (crime victims)
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Sample “Consumer Reports” List
$11.86
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Results First Technical Assistance
• Provide model to state
• Train staff in the approach
• Provide technical assistance
• Help interpret results
• Compile and share lessons learned with other participating states
• Periodically expand and update model
www.pewcenteronthestates.org
Interest and Participation in Results First
VT
HI
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
MEWA
MT ND
SD
MNOR
ID
WY
COUT
NV
CA
AZ NM
NE
KS
OK
TX
AK
LA
AR
MO
IA
WI
MI
IL INOH
PA
NY
WV
KY
TN
MS AL GA
SC
NC
FL
VA
Results First state
AK
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Results First State Examples
• Iowao Public Safety Advisory Board and Department of
Corrections
o Iowa Results First: Return on Investment for Corrections Programs – 2012 (May 2012)
• New Mexicoo Legislative Finance Committee, Department of
Corrections, and NM Sentencing Commission staff
o Reducing Recidivism, Cutting Costs and Improving Public Safety in the Incarceration and Supervision of Adult Offenders (June 2012)
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Informing Policy
• Iowao DOC budget request
o Modeling mandatory minimum sentencing changes for drug offenses
• New Mexicoo Identifying gaps in reporting for community-based
programs
o Identifying programs that should receive priority funding
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Big picture take-aways
• Research shows that programs can reduce crime and victimization while reducing future spending
• CBA can provide a framework to compare across policy choices and improve public safety
• Results First can assist your state with developing CBA expertise
www.pewcenteronthestates.org
For more information
Mike WilsonTechnical Consultant, Results [email protected]
Ashleigh HolandSenior Associate, Results First(202) [email protected]
ConnecticutFloridaIdahoIllinoisIowaKansasMassachusettsNew MexicoNew YorkOregonTexasVermont
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www.pewstates.org/ResultsFirst