www.mdf.org 1 demographic challenges / economic opportunities for maines higher education system...
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1www.mdf.org
Demographic Challenges /Economic Opportunities for
Maine’s Higher Education System
Presentation to:
Maine Higher Education Council
May 25, 2005Senator Inn, Augusta
Laurie Lachance President, MDF
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VISION
Our Vision is a High Quality of Life for All
Maine Citizens
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National Rank on Per Capita Income 1980-2003
35
30
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Nat
ion
al R
ank
27
25th
Benchmark
Benchmark: Maine's national rank among the 50 states on per capita income will improve from 35th in 1994 to 25th by 2005.
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Percent of People in Poverty, Maine and U.S., 2000 - 2003
12.7%
10.5%
12.2% 12.1% 12.4%
10.1%10.6% 11.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Per
cen
t
United States
Maine
Benchmark:Maine’s poverty rate will decline and continually remain below the U.S. through 2005.
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8.4%
5.3%4.5%
2.9%
Less than a HighSchool Diploma
H.S. Diploma, noCollege
Some College, orAssociate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree orHigher
$388
$538$631
$943
Less than a HighSchool Diploma
H.S. Diploma, noCollege
Some College, orAssociate's Degree
Bachelor's Degree orHigher
With Additional Education (2002 data)
Unemployment Declines…
… and Earnings Rise
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Population Growth - New England1990 - 2004
4% 4%
6%
11%
4%
8%
5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
ME CT MA NH RI VT NE
Per
cen
t C
han
ge
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Population Growth - US Regions 1990 - 2004
5%6%
7%
9%
19%
12%
18%
33%
15%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
NE Mid Atl E N Cent W N Cent S Atl E S Cent W S Cent Mtn Pac US
Per
cen
t G
row
th
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Maine Live Births, 1900-2000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
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Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1960 and 1990 Decennial Censuses and Projection Issued October 1996
Age and Sex Composition of the Maine Population1960, 1990 and 2025
Age15
Age25
5
Age45
5
Age65
5
1960 1990 2025Males Males Males FemalesFemalesFemales
Born beforeGreat Depression
Born duringGreat Depression & WWII
Born duringPost-WWII Baby Boom
Born afterPost-WWII Baby Boom
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New England HS Graduates
110000
115000
120000
125000
130000
135000
140000
145000
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
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-1% -3%-11%
28%
97%
55%
28%14%
0-17 18-29 30-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Total
-25%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Percent Population Change by Age CohortMaine 1999 to 2025
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0-1926%
20-4435%
45-6425%
65+14%
Age Composition in 2000
0-1922%
20-4431%
45-6426%
65+21%
Age Composition in 2025
Age Composition of the Maine Population in 2000 and Projected for 2025
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Resident Pupil Counts1970 to 2003 Actual, 2004 to 2017 Projected
175,000
185,000
195,000
205,000
215,000
225,000
235,000
245,000
255,000
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Gra
de
Co
un
t
* Does not include unorganized territoriesTrendline
Actual
Projected
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Residual Population Differences between 1980 and 2000in Selected Maine Birth Cohorts
4,6401,013
-15,171 -17,098
-1,326
4,4358,2397,061
-9,677-8,608
3,9705,662
-25,000
-15,000
-5,000
5,000
15,000
10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39
Age of Birth Cohort at End of Decade
Resid
ual D
iffere
nces
The 1980s
The1990s
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Maine Net US Migration
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
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Median Age of the Population
38.5
37.638
42.6
41.4
39.3
40.7
37.2
38.7
37.2
40.2
38.2
38.9
42.1
40.740.5
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
Yk Cu Sa Li Kn Wal Ha An Ke Pe Ox Fr So Pi Ar Was
Coastal Central Rim
Me. = 38.6%
AgeMedian_Cntys.xls
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Population Distribution of Maine Regions
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Coastal Central Rim
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96.5%
3.5%
Majority (White,Non-Latino)
Minorities
69%
31%
Majority (White,Non-Latino)
Minorities
Persons of Color: Maine and US in 2000
ME
US
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Index of Maine & US Manufacturing Employment (1960=100)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
US Maine
Me. 118,000 in 1968 63,800 in 2003
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61%65%
68% 72%
75%76%
76%77%
18% 17% 16% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13%
22% 18% 16% 14% 12% 11% 10% 10%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
thou
sand
s of M
aine
jobs
Non-MFG Gov't MFG
Changing Composition of Maine's Employment(Maine History & Forecast: 1980 - 2015)
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
(GSP
per
job
in th
ousa
nds
of 1
992$
)
MFG Jobs
Non-MFG Jobs
Value of each MFG & Non-MFG job to Maine's Economy(direct economic contribution per job in thousands of dollars of real GSP per year)
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Manufacturing Value Added per Manufacturing Worker, Maine and U.S., 1989 - 2002
$0.00
$10,000.00
$20,000.00
$30,000.00
$40,000.00
$50,000.00
$60,000.00
$70,000.00
$80,000.00
$90,000.00
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
do
llars
United States
Maine
Benchmark: The value added per manufacturing w orker in Maine w ill increase to w ithin 10% of the value produced by manufacturing w orkers in the U.S. by 2005
Gap: 33%
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Cost of Doing Business, Maine, 1989-2002
108.7
106.3
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
111
113
115
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
inde
x po
ints
United States (100 index points)
Benchmark: The cost of doing
business in Maine will decrease to less
than 103 index points by 2005
103
110.1
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Tax Burden of State and Local Taxes as a Percent of Income: Maine, New England, and United States, 1989 - 2004
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* 2004*
per
cen
t
Maine
New EnglandUnited States
Benchmark: Maine's tax burden will decline, and move toward the New England average, each year through 2010.
* Estimate
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Maine Rank in S&L Taxes as % of Personal Income
96 6 5 5
7
1214
11 12
6 7 7 68 7
5 53 4
6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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Maine State Expenditures(2002 General Fund)
Education, 36%
Human Services, 22%
Higher Educ., 9%
Admin. , 7%
Mental Health, 9%
Corrections, 4%
Other, 13%
Source data: Me. Bur. Of the Budget
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Real K-12 Expenditures vs K-12 EnrollmentIndexed to 1978-79 =100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1978-79 1983-84 1988-89 1993-94 1998-99 2002-03
Expenditures
Enrollment
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Maine Medicaid Expenditures(Millions of $)
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04
Hospitals Nursing Homes Other
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EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PER CAPITA INCOME 2000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
10 15 20 25 30 35 40
% OF POP with BA or MORE
PER
CAPI
TA IN
COM
E
WV
DC
MEVT
NH
CTMA
RI
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Total R&D Spending as a Percent of Gross State Product - 1987-2000
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
To
tal R
&D
as
a %
of
GS
P
New England
United States
EPSCoR States
Maine
Benchmark: Total R%D spending as a percent of GSP in Maine will exceed the EPSCoR states by 2010.
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Major Research Collaborations•Institute for Molecular BiophysicsUMaine, Jackson, MMCRI
•Maine Institute for Human Genetics & HealthEMHS, Jackson, MMCRI
•COBRE: Centers of Biomedical Research ExcellenceFBR, UNE, UMaine, MDIBL, Jackson, MMCRI
•Math-Science PartnershipFBR, USM
University of Southern Maine
University of Maine
Eastern Maine Healthcare Systems
MAINE BIOMEDICALRESEARCH COALITIONMAINE BIOMEDICAL
RESEARCH COALITION
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Gulf of Maine Research Institute
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New Business Starts, Maine & New England (indexed from 1984), 1990-2003
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
ind
ex
po
ints
Maine
NE
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Higher Degree Attainment Among Residents Aged 25 and Over, Maine and New England, 2000 - 2003
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Per
cen
t
Benchmark:The percentage of Maine residents aged 25 and over with a higher degree will increase to at least the New England average by 2013.
New England 40.95%
Maine 34%
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Persons 25 and Over With Bachelors Degree or More
22.9%
34.2%
25.0%26.6%26.2%
22.3%
27.1%
14.4%
20.7%20.3%
15.7%
20.9%
11.8%13.3%
14.6%14.7%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Yk Cu Sa Li Kn Wal Ha An Ke Pe Ox Fr So Pi Ar Was
Coastal Central Rim
Me. = 22.9%
EducLessThan9th_Cntys.xls
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Pre-K per Child Spending (2002-2003)
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
ME CT MA NH RI VT
Fed. Head Start State & Local
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Per Capita Personal Income Gap 2003(Pct. Points Me. PCPI Lags Natl. Avg.)
-20%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
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