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1 www.mdf.org Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maine’s Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25, 2005 Senator Inn, Augusta Laurie Lachance President, MDF

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Page 1: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

1www.mdf.org

Demographic Challenges /Economic Opportunities for

Maine’s Higher Education System

Presentation to:

Maine Higher Education Council

May 25, 2005Senator Inn, Augusta

Laurie Lachance President, MDF

Page 2: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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VISION

Our Vision is a High Quality of Life for All

Maine Citizens

Page 3: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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National Rank on Per Capita Income 1980-2003

35

30

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Nat

ion

al R

ank

27

25th

Benchmark

Benchmark: Maine's national rank among the 50 states on per capita income will improve from 35th in 1994 to 25th by 2005.

Page 4: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Percent of People in Poverty, Maine and U.S., 2000 - 2003

12.7%

10.5%

12.2% 12.1% 12.4%

10.1%10.6% 11.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Per

cen

t

United States

Maine

Benchmark:Maine’s poverty rate will decline and continually remain below the U.S. through 2005.

Page 5: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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8.4%

5.3%4.5%

2.9%

Less than a HighSchool Diploma

H.S. Diploma, noCollege

Some College, orAssociate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree orHigher

$388

$538$631

$943

Less than a HighSchool Diploma

H.S. Diploma, noCollege

Some College, orAssociate's Degree

Bachelor's Degree orHigher

With Additional Education (2002 data)

Unemployment Declines…

… and Earnings Rise

Page 6: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

6www.mdf.org

Population Growth - New England1990 - 2004

4% 4%

6%

11%

4%

8%

5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

ME CT MA NH RI VT NE

Per

cen

t C

han

ge

Page 7: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

7www.mdf.org

Population Growth - US Regions 1990 - 2004

5%6%

7%

9%

19%

12%

18%

33%

15%

13%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

NE Mid Atl E N Cent W N Cent S Atl E S Cent W S Cent Mtn Pac US

Per

cen

t G

row

th

Page 8: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Maine Live Births, 1900-2000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Page 9: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

9www.mdf.org

Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 1960 and 1990 Decennial Censuses and Projection Issued October 1996

Age and Sex Composition of the Maine Population1960, 1990 and 2025

Age15

Age25

5

Age45

5

Age65

5

1960 1990 2025Males Males Males FemalesFemalesFemales

Born beforeGreat Depression

Born duringGreat Depression & WWII

Born duringPost-WWII Baby Boom

Born afterPost-WWII Baby Boom

Page 10: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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New England HS Graduates

110000

115000

120000

125000

130000

135000

140000

145000

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Page 11: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Page 12: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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-1% -3%-11%

28%

97%

55%

28%14%

0-17 18-29 30-44 45-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Total

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Percent Population Change by Age CohortMaine 1999 to 2025

Page 13: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

13www.mdf.org

0-1926%

20-4435%

45-6425%

65+14%

Age Composition in 2000

0-1922%

20-4431%

45-6426%

65+21%

Age Composition in 2025

Age Composition of the Maine Population in 2000 and Projected for 2025

Page 14: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Resident Pupil Counts1970 to 2003 Actual, 2004 to 2017 Projected

175,000

185,000

195,000

205,000

215,000

225,000

235,000

245,000

255,000

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

Gra

de

Co

un

t

* Does not include unorganized territoriesTrendline

Actual

Projected

Page 15: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Residual Population Differences between 1980 and 2000in Selected Maine Birth Cohorts

4,6401,013

-15,171 -17,098

-1,326

4,4358,2397,061

-9,677-8,608

3,9705,662

-25,000

-15,000

-5,000

5,000

15,000

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39

Age of Birth Cohort at End of Decade

Resid

ual D

iffere

nces

The 1980s

The1990s

Page 16: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Maine Net US Migration

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Page 17: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Median Age of the Population

38.5

37.638

42.6

41.4

39.3

40.7

37.2

38.7

37.2

40.2

38.2

38.9

42.1

40.740.5

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

43

44

Yk Cu Sa Li Kn Wal Ha An Ke Pe Ox Fr So Pi Ar Was

Coastal Central Rim

Me. = 38.6%

AgeMedian_Cntys.xls

Page 18: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

18www.mdf.org

Population Distribution of Maine Regions

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Coastal Central Rim

Page 19: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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96.5%

3.5%

Majority (White,Non-Latino)

Minorities

69%

31%

Majority (White,Non-Latino)

Minorities

Persons of Color: Maine and US in 2000

ME

US

Page 20: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Index of Maine & US Manufacturing Employment (1960=100)

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

US Maine

Me. 118,000 in 1968 63,800 in 2003

Page 21: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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61%65%

68% 72%

75%76%

76%77%

18% 17% 16% 14% 13% 13% 13% 13%

22% 18% 16% 14% 12% 11% 10% 10%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

thou

sand

s of M

aine

jobs

Non-MFG Gov't MFG

Changing Composition of Maine's Employment(Maine History & Forecast: 1980 - 2015)

Page 22: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

(GSP

per

job

in th

ousa

nds

of 1

992$

)

MFG Jobs

Non-MFG Jobs

Value of each MFG & Non-MFG job to Maine's Economy(direct economic contribution per job in thousands of dollars of real GSP per year)

Page 23: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Manufacturing Value Added per Manufacturing Worker, Maine and U.S., 1989 - 2002

$0.00

$10,000.00

$20,000.00

$30,000.00

$40,000.00

$50,000.00

$60,000.00

$70,000.00

$80,000.00

$90,000.00

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

do

llars

United States

Maine

Benchmark: The value added per manufacturing w orker in Maine w ill increase to w ithin 10% of the value produced by manufacturing w orkers in the U.S. by 2005

Gap: 33%

Page 24: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Cost of Doing Business, Maine, 1989-2002

108.7

106.3

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

111

113

115

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

inde

x po

ints

United States (100 index points)

Benchmark: The cost of doing

business in Maine will decrease to less

than 103 index points by 2005

103

110.1

Page 25: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

25www.mdf.org

Tax Burden of State and Local Taxes as a Percent of Income: Maine, New England, and United States, 1989 - 2004

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003* 2004*

per

cen

t

Maine

New EnglandUnited States

Benchmark: Maine's tax burden will decline, and move toward the New England average, each year through 2010.

* Estimate

Page 26: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

26www.mdf.org

Maine Rank in S&L Taxes as % of Personal Income

96 6 5 5

7

1214

11 12

6 7 7 68 7

5 53 4

6 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Page 27: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Maine State Expenditures(2002 General Fund)

Education, 36%

Human Services, 22%

Higher Educ., 9%

Admin. , 7%

Mental Health, 9%

Corrections, 4%

Other, 13%

Source data: Me. Bur. Of the Budget

Page 28: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

28www.mdf.org

Real K-12 Expenditures vs K-12 EnrollmentIndexed to 1978-79 =100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1978-79 1983-84 1988-89 1993-94 1998-99 2002-03

Expenditures

Enrollment

Page 29: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

29www.mdf.org

Maine Medicaid Expenditures(Millions of $)

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

FY90 FY91 FY92 FY93 FY94 FY95 FY96 FY97 FY98 FY99 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04

Hospitals Nursing Homes Other

Page 30: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT AND PER CAPITA INCOME 2000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

% OF POP with BA or MORE

PER

CAPI

TA IN

COM

E

WV

DC

MEVT

NH

CTMA

RI

Page 31: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Total R&D Spending as a Percent of Gross State Product - 1987-2000

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

To

tal R

&D

as

a %

of

GS

P

New England

United States

EPSCoR States

Maine

Benchmark: Total R%D spending as a percent of GSP in Maine will exceed the EPSCoR states by 2010.

Page 32: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Major Research Collaborations•Institute for Molecular BiophysicsUMaine, Jackson, MMCRI

•Maine Institute for Human Genetics & HealthEMHS, Jackson, MMCRI

•COBRE: Centers of Biomedical Research ExcellenceFBR, UNE, UMaine, MDIBL, Jackson, MMCRI

•Math-Science PartnershipFBR, USM

University of Southern Maine

University of Maine

Eastern Maine Healthcare Systems

MAINE BIOMEDICALRESEARCH COALITIONMAINE BIOMEDICAL

RESEARCH COALITION

Page 33: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Gulf of Maine Research Institute

Page 34: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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New Business Starts, Maine & New England (indexed from 1984), 1990-2003

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

ind

ex

po

ints

Maine

NE

Page 35: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

35www.mdf.org

Higher Degree Attainment Among Residents Aged 25 and Over, Maine and New England, 2000 - 2003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Per

cen

t

Benchmark:The percentage of Maine residents aged 25 and over with a higher degree will increase to at least the New England average by 2013.

New England 40.95%

Maine 34%

Page 36: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Persons 25 and Over With Bachelors Degree or More

22.9%

34.2%

25.0%26.6%26.2%

22.3%

27.1%

14.4%

20.7%20.3%

15.7%

20.9%

11.8%13.3%

14.6%14.7%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

Yk Cu Sa Li Kn Wal Ha An Ke Pe Ox Fr So Pi Ar Was

Coastal Central Rim

Me. = 22.9%

EducLessThan9th_Cntys.xls

Page 37: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

37www.mdf.org

Pre-K per Child Spending (2002-2003)

$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

ME CT MA NH RI VT

Fed. Head Start State & Local

Page 38: Www.mdf.org 1 Demographic Challenges / Economic Opportunities for Maines Higher Education System Presentation to: Maine Higher Education Council May 25,

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Per Capita Personal Income Gap 2003(Pct. Points Me. PCPI Lags Natl. Avg.)

-20%

-18%

-16%

-14%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03