www.managingclimate.gov.au 1 managing climate variability managing climate variability – what is...
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www.managingclimate.gov.au1
Managing Climate VariabilityManaging Climate Variability – what is it?
Adaptation – all about continuous improvement in practices
Forecasting – breaking down the barriers of weather & climate and fostering climate risk management
Horticulture – opportunities and synergies
Broader Agendas – positioning Australian Agriculture
Australia’s Rangelands - Rainfall variability
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Australia – most variable climate, other than Antarctica; averages and analogue years are not useful concepts!
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Central thesis for adaptation – agriculture will respond to climate change through adaptation to our already & increasingly variable climate – within and by season or at most to 10 year investment timeframes
2070 climate change projections - the impetus to participate in mitigation
www.managingclimate.gov.au4
Managing Climate Variability
Four themes -
1. Forecasting
2. Soil, climate & water attributes
3. Tools for Agriculture
4. Knowledge, adoption & communication
Partnership across LWA, GRDC, MLA, DA, RIRDC, SRDC &
Govt with a 4.7: 1 benefit cost ratio over the last 15
years
www.managingclimate.gov.au5
Climate Drivers & Synoptic FeaturesExample for Qld - Drivers of ENSO, Monsoon & Madden-Julian Oscillation
Synoptic features of:
Trade winds
Cyclones & Depressions
Monsoon conditions
Inland troughs
East Coast / Cut Off Lows
Cloud Bands
Frontal Changes
www.managingclimate.gov.au6
Our Key Forecasting Investments
Improving Global Circulation Model [POAMA] accuracy
- eg Indian and Pacific Ocean initialisation,
Teleconnections between Climate Drivers
Proving up multi-week forecasting [weather 4 days,
climate month to seasonal]
Prediction and Re-Analysis of Extreme Events
$6.7M + investment next 3 years & hoping to partner
with others – eg Tropical Australia
www.managingclimate.gov.au7
Forecasting, Agriculture & Risk Management
– Farmers and others are all swimming in the stormy seas of risk, with and without formal climate forecasts (Anderson,2005).
– Beneficial risk management using seasonal forecasts together with a partial hedge with weather derivatives requires forecasts only marginally better than climatology. (Stern & Dawson, 2004)
– “risk assessment is an accepted aspect of all economic activity these days, and so the uncertainty associated with a seasonal climate forecast is an additional risk to be included in the overall decision-making process for a user sector…..Optimal value is derived when there is good communication between the climate and user communities, so that the nature and uncertainties of seasonal forecasts are understood and taken into account in a particular application”. (Manton et al, 2006)
www.managingclimate.gov.au8
Horticulture, Forecasting & MCVTropical Australia and Eastern Australia – not yet
enough $eg – Madden Julian Oscillation in POAMA will vastly
improve Monsoon phase predictions
Multi-Week Forecasting – especially the transition from model output to routine National Climate Centre products
eg - delivery of Horticulture needed attributes [such as frost, heat stress, heat waves, out of season rainfall] & spatially and temporally relevant to specific commodities [say $300K ]
www.managingclimate.gov.au9
Our Soil – Climate - Water Investments
Web Delivery of Monthly Soil Moisture Predictions with links to
Decision Support Tools
Improved and POAMA derived prediction of Soil Moisture, Murray
Darling and thence runoff and water storage predictions as input to
water allocation decisions
Tipping Points – HAL and Woolworths funded to understand key issues
for commodities in a changing climate [see Peter]
Climate change projections
P
Q
P
QP = median P = median
Qt – QQt – Q
Pt – PPt – P
RAINFALL
RUNOFF
ET
ET
Estimation of impact on runoff
< 22 – 2.52.5 – 3> 3
< 22 – 2.52.5 – 3> 3
Hydrologic sensitivity to climate
Runoff projections
Catchment Hydrology - Runoff Projections
www.managingclimate.gov.au11
Horticulture, Attributes & MCV???
perhaps expanding soil moisture and runoff predictions to outside Murray Darling Basin
…..or perhaps best to await results of current research investment + with tipping points a feedback into forecast needs from BOM
www.managingclimate.gov.au12
Our Applications and Tools
Heat Stress – grains
Frost – grains and grapes
Extreme Events and Sustainability – sugar
Tools Audit – all partner commodities
Yield Prophet enhancement – grains
Pasture Prediction – dairy & meat
www.managingclimate.gov.au13
Example - Yield Prophet®
Wheat, canola, sorghum & barley - dryland & irrigated
Real-time information during crop growth Inputs: paddock-specific soil, crop & climate
information Outputs: impact of management decisions [crop
type & variety, sowing time, fertilisers, irrigation] on yield & quality
Online, subscriber-only service
www.managingclimate.gov.au14
Crystal Brook rainfall
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fallow-rain 170mmin-season rain 234mm
Rainfall for Crystal Brook, SA 1889 - 2005
www.yieldprophet.com.au
Seasonal climate forecasting
In-season (canopy) management
Soil water in October
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Soil water124 mm
Tools for monitoring system status
www.managingclimate.gov.au15
Decision Season OutcomeN Water
Poor Balanced budget ..phew !
Avg N limit. Minor missed opportunity
Fertilise for poor season Good N limit. Major missed opportunity
4 units
Poor Water limit. Minor over supply of N
Fertilise for avg season Avg Balanced budget ..good outcome
53 units
Good N limit. Minor missed opportunity
Fertilise for good season88 units
Poor Water limit. Major over supply of N
Avg Water limit. Minor over supply of N
Good Balanced budget great result
What N rate to use ?
www.managingclimate.gov.au16
Example - AussieGRASS Grazing and pasture application, providing regional-
level output Simulation model based - accounts for interactions
between climate, soils, fires, grazing management Outputs:
forecasts potential grass growth & cover; projected grazing pressure; risk of degradation; impact of management decisions
Internet-based, password protected; broadly “field calibrated” across all mainland states
A modelling framework - AussieGRASS
Data
Pasture growth, water balance
model
Products
Applications
Validation of pasture simulations
ground observations remote sensing
www.managingclimate.gov.au19
Horticulture, Tools & MCVClimate forecast products are generally not yet of the right
time frame or attribute for tools to support horticulture practice decisions
Madden Julian Oscillation investment would lead to opportunities – eg mangoes
Suggested Strategy for ToolsInvestment in our multi-week forecasting initiative [and
possibly MJO] and then assess application opportunities
www.managingclimate.gov.au20
Our Knowledge, Adoption & Communication Investments
www.Climate Kelpie – rounding up and presenting climate information,
a one-start shop
Water and the Land – eg rainfall plumes and now Data Drill, to spatially
spread records, variability, analysis of trends and forecasts from
BOM’s 200+ stations across the Australian Agriculture landscape
Climate Champions – fostering farmer leadership in applying climate
risk management, trialling and sharing innovations
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Water and the Land – BOM interface for Seasonal Forecasting
Pages present an integrated suite of information for people involved in primary production, natural resource management, industry, trade and commerce.
www.bom.gov.au/watl
www.managingclimate.gov.au22
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Horticulture, Knowledge & MCV
www.Climate Kelpie – keen to add Horticulture to the commodities, will require strong partnership with HAL’s communication team
WATL & Data Drill – enhancements to deliver climate attributes specially pertaining to Horticulture
Climate Champions – partnership with Horticulture will profile & help position Horticulture in adaptation activities & climate risk management innovation
www.managingclimate.gov.au27
Win – Win - Wins Need a strong Evidence Base [upon which to develop policy, position
Australian Agriculture, respond to community concerns and assess Govt
proposals]
Farming Systems Practice Audit - Production and Profitability [eg cropping practices, nutrient status, inputs, markets]
Sustainability [soil health, water balance & catchment impacts]
Extreme Events [resilience, adaptation & flexibility of practices]
Emissions - soil carbon, reduced fuel use, sequestration etc – the “carbon footprint”
Central Question - are existing best practices also our best opportunities? If yes -
are incentives needed to foster more rapid uptake?
If no - what are the R&D activities to deliver the “better” practices?
www.managingclimate.gov.au28
Fertiliser & Chemicals – smarter practices? Fertiliser and Chemical prices WILL increase
More precision applications to meet crop needs – a “no brainer”
Opportunities are multiple
Practice changes – eg row spacings / reduced till / pH management / variety and
crop selection, application systems and rates
Precision agric – to match crop needs within paddock
Changed fertiliser types and applications [eg coatings and liquid one shot]
Likewise chemical use – targeted, within paddock variation, GM etc
Bottom Line – do it anyway to reduce input costs
Reef Rescue provides an example of the opportunities to improve industry
profitability
www.managingclimate.gov.au29
Price Taker or Policy Maker?
When should Agriculture enter an Emissions Reduction Regime?
- what are the relative benefits of “now” and “later”
Leadership will position agriculture – with Australian community
and possibly some export markets
Horticulture well placed – and might play a catalyst role for the more
emissions sensitive industries
Positioning Agriculture – a collective “whole of Australian
agriculture” proactive policy is essential
www.managingclimate.gov.au30
Summarising 5 Key Horticulture – MCV Opportunities
Multi-week Forecasting – building in more attributes and ensuring
their delivery via National Climate Centre
Tropical Australia – incorporating Madden Julian Oscillation in
POAMA
Data Drill – ensuring products are presented to also meet
Horticultures needs
www.Climate Kelpie – adding Horticulture functionality
Climate Champions – fostering innovation & shared knowledge on
farm
www.managingclimate.gov.au31
Discussion
Source: Australian Government – Bureau of Meteorology
Discussion