www.floodrisk.org.uk epsrc grant: ep/fp202511/1 probabilistic forecasting for local flooding david...
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www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1
Probabilistic Forecasting for Local Flooding
David Leedal, Paul Smith, Keith Beven and Peter Young
Lancaster Environment Centre
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Local Flood Forecasting
• Level sensors are cheap and easily networked
GPRS/IP logger
Depth sensor
fittings
£500 £50 500900950Total: ££400
Data…
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Local Flood Forecasting• Level sensors are
quick to installation• Work with rainfall or
level input• Provide a forecast
where it’s needed
tree
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Local Flood ForecastingData Based Mechanistic (DBM) Modelling Approach
• Simple nonlinearity + transfer function model within stochastic data assimilation framework
• Identification of State Dependent Nonlinearity directly from data added in FRMRC1
• Further development of data assimilation from local sensors in FRMRC2
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River Eden Sensor NetworkFunded by FRMRC2 to (a) Test HD model predictions and (b) Test local flood forecasting
Stead McAlpin
Local flood forecasting test site:
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Local Forecasting at Stead McAlpin (river Caldew nr. Carlisle)
• Stead McAlpin Factory – flooded in Jan 2005 (almost in 2009 & 2010)
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2 hour forecast 4 hour forecast 5 hour forecast
Mean forecast
Standard error
Hourly observations
Forecasting ResultsCalibration: Nov 2009 event Testing: Nov 2010 event
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Summary• Local flood forecasts might be useful to local
stakeholders, even with short to medium forecast lead times
• FRMRC2 has produced a simple way of providing local flood forecasts with estimates of forecast uncertainty using local level sensors and on-line data assimilation
• Further work on self-calibrating models is on-going – install-and-leave
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www.floodrisk.org.uk EPSRC Grant: EP/FP202511/1
AcknowledgementThe research reported in this presentation was conducted as part of the Flood Risk Management Research Consortium with support from the:
• Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council • Department of Environment, Food and Rural
Affairs/Environment Agency Joint Research Programme • United Kingdom Water Industry Research• Office of Public Works Dublin• Northern Ireland Rivers Agency
Data were provided by the EA and the Ordnance Survey.