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GODAE OceanView Observing system Evaluation Task Team Report

Peter OkePeter Oke11 and Gilles Larnicol and Gilles Larnicol22

1CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research; 2CLSNovember 2011

“The most exciting phrase to hear in science, the one that heralds the most discoveries, is not ‘Eureka!’, but ‘That’s funny…’ ”, Isaac Asimov (1920-1992)

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GOV OSEVal-TT organisation

Co-Chairs: Peter Oke (CSIRO)Gilles Larnicol (CLS)

Core Members: Magdalena Balmaseda (ECMWF)Laurent Bertino (NERSC)Gary Brassington (BoM)Jim Cummings (NRL)Yosuke Fujii (JMA/MRI)Pat Hogan (NRL)Villy Kourafalou (Univ. Miami)Daniel Lea (UKMet)Matthew Martin (UKMet)Avichal Mehra (NOAA)Pavel Sakov (NERSC)Anthony Weaver (CERFACS)

Associate members:Mike Bell (UKMet)Eric Dombrowsky (Mercator)Fabrice Hernandez (Mercator)Eric Lindstrom (NASA)Andreas Schiller (CSIRO)

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Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)

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Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

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Framework for Ocean Observing:where GODAE OceanView fits

4Contributed by E. Lindstrom, OOPC Chair, NASA

GOV OSEva

l-TT

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Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)

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Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

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Capability building:GODAE and GOV OSEval Workshops

• 1st GODAE OSE/OSSE workshop (November 2007, UNESCO, Paris)

OSEval-TT established• 2nd GOV OSEVal-TT workshop (June 2009, CLS, Toulouse)

Initiation of Routine Monitoring activitiesOSEval-TT work plan (draft)

• GOVST meeting (November, 2010, JMA, Tokyo) Initiation of NRT OSEs (2 groups committed; 1 group delivered)OSEval-TT work plan (final; www.godae-oceanview.org)

• GODAE OceanView and CLIVAR GSOP workshop on Observing System Evaluation and Inter-comparisons (June 2011, Santa Cruz, CA, USA)

Extension and expansion of NRT OSEs (4 groups committed; 4 may participate)

Concept of “Observation Impact Statement” introduced

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Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)

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Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

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Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments

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Altimeter

SST

XBT

Moorings

ForecastForecast

or or

BGFBGF

AnalysisAnalysis

oror

ForecastForecastAltimeter

SST

T/S

XBT

Moorings

Evaluation / Validation

Assimilated observations

Assimilated and with-held observations

T/S

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Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments

• Observing System Experiments (OSEs)

– Assimilate real observations– Systematically with-hold

observation types9

Altimeter

SST

XBT

Moorings

ForecastForecast

or or

BGFBGF

AnalysisAnalysis

oror

ForecastForecastAltimeter

SST

T/S

XBT

Moorings

Evaluation / Validation

Assimilated observations

Assimilated and with-held observations

T/S

www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/

Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments

• Observing System Experiments (OSEs)

– Assimilate real observations– Systematically with-hold

observation types

ForecastForecast

or or

BGFBGF

AnalysisAnalysis

oror

ForecastForecast

Evaluation / Validation

Assimilated “observations”

Simulated

observations

Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs)

Assimilate pretend “observations” … from a model

Systematically include different observation types … including future observation types

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Delayed-mode OSEs and design experiments

Many examples of research in this area at the GODAE OceanView – CLIVAR GSOP workshop

… refer to GOV-CLIVAR WS report

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Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)

12

Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

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Responses to “observing system events”

Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)

UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages

13Contributed by G. Brassington, BoM

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Responses to “observing system events”

Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)

UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages.

Extension of life of Jason-1 CLS provided results to OSTST

14Contributed by G. Larnicol and G. Dibardoure, CLS

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Responses to “observing system events”

Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)

UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages.

Extension of life of Jason-1 CLS provided results to OSTST

Availability of Cryosat-2 data GODAE OceanView Chairs and Patrons applied pressure to

space agencies

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www.cmar.csiro.au/staff/oke/

Responses to “observing system events”

Continuation of Jason-1 data processing in inter-leaved orbit (June 2009)

UKMet and BoM provided a demonstration of the impact of Jason-1 data in inter-leaved orbit during recent outages.

Extension of life of Jason-1 CLS provided results to OSTST

Availability of Cryosat-2 data GODAE OceanView Chairs and Patrons applied pressure to

space agencies

Too ad hoc – we need to be more organised

2010 GOVST proposition of NRT OSEs

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NRT OSEs Routinely run parallel forecast at operational centers and

with-hold a different data each month:

Quantify the impact of each data type on forecasts Multi-system approach Rotating data types each month UKMet have participated Australia and France have indicated that they will participate China and Canada have indicated that they may participate

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Jan 2011Feb 2011Mar 2011Apr 2011May 2011Jun 2011

ArgoXBTTAOJason-02All altimsSST

Jul 2011Aug 2011Sep 2011Oct 2011Nov 2011Dec 2011

-Microwave SSTArgoXBTTAOJason-2

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Observing System Evaluation Task Team (OSEval-TT)

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Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Routine Monitoring

of the GOOS

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Delayed-mode OSEs and OSSEs

for short-range and seasonal forecast

systems

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Design and evaluation of new

and future observation system

components

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

Provision and management of

Observation Impact Statements (OIS)

based on OSEval evidence

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Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)

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Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)

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Provision of Observation Impact Statements (OISs)

Actions:Agree on NRT OSE scheduleAgree on metricsAgree on content of OISsAgree on method of dissemination

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Summary

GODAE OceanView OSEval-TT are committed to supporting observation agencies/teams in demonstrating the impact of observations on forecast and analysis products

Many groups are undertaking research activities to:quantify the impact of past observations; andcontribute to the design of future observing systems

Recent initiatives have motivated operational centers to develop capabilities for quantifying the impact of current observations in NRT

DFS, analysis sensitivity, forecast sensitivity The OSEval-TT has developed the idea of “Observation

Impact Statements” We need agreement on the detailsSeek resources?

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