wwsenergypolicy spreadsheet

7/25/2019 WWSEnergyPolicy Spreadsheet

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---- BASE CASE PROJECTIONS FROM EIA ---

Sector/Fuel WORLD -- TW U. S. -- TW

200 20!0 200 20!0

Re"#$e%t#&l

Liquids 0.34 0.37 0.04 0.04 0.95 0.82 1.43 1.00

Natural Gas 0.69 0.84 0.16 0.18 0.95 0.82 1.43 1.00

Coal 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.82 1.43 1.00

Electricity 0.61 0.92 0.16 0.20 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Ree!a"les 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.50 0.82 1.43 1.00

Tot&l .'' 2.2( 0.!) 0.*!

Co++erc#&l

Liquids 0.16 0.18 0.02 0.02 0.90 0.82 1.43 1.00

Natural Gas 0.25 0.32 0.10 0.13 0.90 0.82 1.43 1.00

Coal 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.82 1.43 1.00

Electricity 0.49 0.78 0.16 0.22 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Ree!a"les 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.82 1.43 1.00

Tot&l 0.,* .!2 0.2) 0.!)

I%$u"tr#&l

Liquids 1.96 2.41 0.32 0.31 0.60 0.82 1.43 0.72

Natural Gas 1.72 2.35 0.28 0.28 0.60 0.82 1.43 0.82

Coal 1.54 2.15 0.06 0.08 0.60 0.82 1.43 0.73

Electricity 1.09 1.75 0.12 0.12 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.93

Ree!a"les 0.08 0.15 0.08 0.14 0.90 0.82 1.43 1.00

Tot&l (.*0 ).)0 0.)( 0.,2

Tr&%"ort&t#o%

Liquids 3.29 4.44 0.95 1.07 0.73 0.19 0.64 1.00

Natural Gas 0.04 0.05 0.02 0.03 0.90 0.82 1.43 1.00 Coal 0.01 # 0.00 0.00 0.90 0.82 1.43 1.00

Electricity 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00

Tot&l !.!( *.! 0.,' .0

Tot&l &ll e%$ u"e "ector" 2.*' (.,2 2.0 2.)!

All E%$-U"e Sector" 200 20!0 200 20!0

Liquids 5.75 7.40 1.34 1.45

Natural Gas 2.70 3.57 0.57 0.61 u"er #%ut"

Coal 1.68 2.29 0.07 0.08 e1 re"ult" Electricity 2.22 3.48 0.44 0.54 E$C% & electricity ad 'ydro(e

Ree!a"les 0.11 0.18 0.09 0.16 +,strea* -actor & ratio o- eer(Del#ere$ E%er31 2.*' (.,2 2.0 2.)!

Electricity#Related Losses 4.68 6.32 0.95 1.11

Tot&l '.* 2!.2* !.* !.,*

Electr#c Po4er /5

Liquids 0.31 0.27 0.02 0.02

Natural Gas 1.32 1.95 0.23 0.17

Coal 3.00 4.47 0.70 0.92

electr#6#e

$17 6uelr&t#o

e-8276uel r&t#o

+6&ctor"-e


2/82

Nuclear 0.96 1.32 0.28 0.32

Ree!a"les 1.29 1.79 0.15 0.21

Tot&l (.), ,.)0 .!, .(* Eer(y s'are ,erceta(es ## orld

Tot&l E%er31 Co%"u+t#o% 200 20!0

Liquids 6.06 7.67 1.36 1.47 35 33

Natural Gas 4.02 5.51 0.80 0.78 23 24

Coal 4.69 6.77 0.77 1.00 27 29 Nuclear 0.96 1.32 0.28 0.32 6 6

Ree!a"les 1.40 1.97 0.25 0.37 8 8

Tot&l '.* 2!.2* !.* !.,* 009 009

a Electricity losses icurred i t'e tras*issio ad distri"utio o- electric ,o!er. %ay iclude so*e 'eat ,rodu

" uel i,uts used i t'e ,roductio o- electricity ad 'eat at cetral#statio (eerators.

/ources 2005 eri)ed -ro* Eer(y -or*atio d*iistratio E teratioal Eer(y ual 2005 :ue#

!!!.eia.doe.(o)iea. 2008 ;EE#03832008 as'i(to C :

Natioal Eer(y %odeli( /yste* ru E;2008.031608 !e" site !!!.eia.doe.(o)oia-aeo? ad orld E


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TW 1e&r 20!0

Worl$ U.S.

1.00 0.90 0.29 0.03

1.00 0.85 0.61 0.13

1.00 0.90 0.08 #

1.00 0.90 0.83 0.18

1.00 0.90 0.02 0.01

.)! 0.!

1.00 0.95 0.15 0.02

1.00 0.90 0.26 0.10

1.00 0.95 0.03 0.00

1.00 1.00 0.78 0.22

1.00 0.95 0.01 0.00

.22 0.!

0.72 0.95 1.76 0.22

0.82 0.95 1.95 0.23

0.73 0.95 1.59 0.06

0.93 1.00 1.62 0.11

1.00 0.95 0.13 0.12

'.0 0.'*

1.18 0.85 1.30 0.31

1.00 0.85 0.04 0.021.00 0.85 # #

1.00 0.95 0.03 #

.!' 0.!!

.*' .')

coser)atio *easures

use i / !orld to ratio o- eer(y use i "ase#case -ossil#-uel !orld

6&ctor"-

82

&6ter

E8CM


4/82

ctio.

cto"er 2007 !e" site

ue 2008 E;2008

er(y


5/82

0.80

0.97

0.80

0.70

1.12

1.32

1.10

0.15

5.30

2.70

0.28

0.18

0.27

0.07

20!0


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E%$ u"e 6&ctor

E--iciecy o- -ossil#-uel 'eati( @A+s#!or>@A+s#i,ut#eer(y

E--iciecy o- electric resistace 'eati( @A+s#!or>@A+s#i,ut#eer(y

E--iciecy o- 'ydro(e 'eati( @A+s#!or>@A+s#i,ut#eer(y

E--iciecy o- electrolytic 'ydro(e ,roductio o site @A+s#$2@A+s#electricity

Ratio o- *i@A+#electric outlet -or EBs to *i@A+#(asolie CEBs

Ratio o- *i@A+ -or $CBs to *i@A+ CEBs


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Source

LEM documentation (Delucchi, 2003)

LEM documentation (Delucchi, 2003)

Assume hydrogen same as fossil fuel

AVEM, LEM Documentation (Delucchi, 2003,200!)

AVEM (Delucchi, 200!)




L"2 in #ehicles is more efficient than gasoline$ assume minorim%ro#ement in &et engines

Slightly greater than &et fuel shsare in ' S in 200 (see*+rans%ortation Energy* ta)


8/82

Worl$ tr&%"ort 6uel u"e< 20!0

M+-E . share

Road 2174 73

)iatio 352 12

%arie 216 7

;t'er 236 8

2978

Source/ EA (2001) E- data % , !01

Tr&%"ort 6uel u"e #% U. S.< 200(

+rillion 4+' . share

%otor (as 17216 61

)iatio (as 33 0

:et -uel 3379 12

iesel 6414 23L

; road (asolie L


9/82

ir ,laes 12 0

/'i,s 4 0

Lu"ricats 1 0

Tot&l 009 '!9

Source/ alculated from tales 7ith other EA AE5 data


10/82

%ut"


11/82


12/82

=e&r

A#r

N&tur&l Elec- Fuel>&"

1978 4.26 0.4 2.05 0.23 0.32

1979 N N N N N

1980 3.41 0.27 1.3 0.23 0.36

1981 3.69 0.26 1.06 0.21 0.34

1982 3.14 0.25 1.04 0.19 0.31

1984 3.51 0.25 1.11 0.21 0.32

1987 3.38 0.28 1.05 0.22 0.44

1990 3.37 0.3 0.93 0.19 0.48

1993 3.67 0.41 0.95 0.3 0.46

1997 3.61 0.4 0.91 0.26 0.42

2001 3.32 0.39 0.62 0.28 0.62

Electri-ia"le ed use 0.95 1.00 0.95 0.95 1.00

N> Fuel o#l

Electri-ia"le "y -uel 0.95 0.96

1978 11.49 3.53 8.06 1.05 4.12

1979 N N N N N

1980 13.22 3.78 10.48 1.78 5.84

1981 16.62 3.93 9.44 1.78 6.23

1982 17.74 4.21 8.8 1.69 6.23

1984 20.66 4.62 8.51 2 7.06

1987 18.05 5.53 6.25 1.85 9.77

1990 18.59 6.16 7.42 2.01 11.23

1993 21.95 8.66 6.24 2.81 11.31

1997 24.11 8.56 6.57 2.79 10.2

2001 31.84 8.98 5.66 4.04 15.94

T&5le 2. 8ou"e?ol$ E%er31 Co%"u+t#o% &%$ E@e%$#ture" 51 E%$ U"e &%$

/ource E Annual Energy 5e#ie7 2008 2008.

S&ce 8e&t#%3 1 Co%$#t#o%#%3 2

LP> 7 Electr#c#t1 5tr#c#t1 5 O#l 6

1ood used -or s,ace 'eati( is icluded i DAotal ood.D2 s*all a*out o- atural (as used -or air coditioi( is icluded i DAotal Natural Gas.D3cludes re-ri(erators.4 s*all a*out o- distillate -uel oil ad >erosee used -or a,,liaces is icluded i Duel ;ilD ude


13/82

DAotal.D

e1 u"er #%ut"

e1 re"ult"

5Retail electricity. ;e >ilo!att'our&3412 @tu.6istillate -uel oil ad >erosee.

7Lique-ied ,etroleu* (ases.


14/82

N&tur&l Elec- Fuel N&tur&l Elec->&" >&"

1.04 0.29 0.14 0.06 0.28 1.45 0.03

N N N N N N N

1.15 0.3 0.22 0.07 0.36 1.54 0.05

1.13 0.3 0.22 0.06 0.43 1.52 0.05

1.15 0.28 0.15 0.06 0.43 1.5 0.05

1.1 0.32 0.15 0.06 0.35 1.59 0.04

1.1 0.31 0.17 0.06 0.34 1.72 0.04

1.16 0.34 0.11 0.06 0.33 1.91 0.03

1.31 0.34 0.12 0.05 0.29 2.08 0.03

1.29 0.39 0.16 0.08 0.37 2.33 0.02

1.15 0.36 0.13 0.05 0.37 2.52 0.05

1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.80 1.00 0.80

2.88 3.14 0.56 0.36 0.93 19.1 0.25

N N N N N N N

4.51 4.45 1.76 0.57 1.91 26.74 0.44

5.13 4.94 1.94 0.51 2.17 29.7 0.52

6.51 5 1.28 0.54 2.58 31.29 0.52

6.63 6.44 1.09 0.58 2.31 36.36 0.54

6.02 6.45 0.94 0.5 2.02 39.83 0.46

6.59 7.21 0.83 0.65 2.03 46.95 0.48

8.08 7.58 0.74 0.58 1.98 53.52 0.42

8.84 8.99 1.04 0.89 2.86 60.57 0.36

11.31 8.47 1.15 0.69 3.83 66.94 0.86

E%er31 Source< Selecte$ =e&r"< ,')-200

W&ter 8e&t#%3 Al#&%ce" 34

LP> 7 LP> 7tr#c#t1 5 O#l 6 tr#c#t1 5

Co%"u+t#o% quadrillio @tu

E@e%$#ture" "illio o*ial dollars 9

8ood used -or "ot' s,ace 'eati( ad a*"iece.9/ee DNo*ial ollarsD i Glossary.

N&Not a)aila"le.

Notes _ ata are esti*ates. _ or years ot s'o


15/82

equal su* o- co*,oets due to ide,edet roudi(.

e"


16/82


17/82

oe.(o)e*eurecs.

istratio E or* E#84 DResidetial Eer

#457 DResidetial Eer Cosu* tio /ur)e .D


18/82

! 2&%$N>L 3

%illio >'s %illio ""l

I%$#rect E%$ U"e @oiler uel

Co)etioal @oiler +se

C$< 6ador Co(eeratio


19/82

3 0 0 0

,( 0 2 (

2


20/82


21/82

10 0 13 1.00

(2 ( 2,, 1.00

', ) 0


22/82


23/82


24/82

Reort7 A% U$&te$ A%%u&l E%er31 Outloo 200, Re6ere%ce C&"e Re6lect#%3 Pro#"#o%

/R;2009#03

/ceario sti*ulus d041409a

T&5le (. I%$u"tr#&l Sector e1 I%$#c&tor" &%$ Co%"u+t#o%

Refning Consumption 6/ 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Lique-ied


25/82

%iscellaeous e 4 0.66 0.62 0.64 0.46 0.52

;t'er dustrial Coal 1.25 1.21 1.19 1.00 1.00

Coal#to#Liquids $eat ad ad as,'alt a

Re,ort 2006 ;EE#02142006 as'i(to C ;cto"er 2008. 2006 ad 2007 coal ,rices are "ased o

;EE#012120074 as'i(to C %arc' 2008 ad E E;2009 Natioal Eer(y %odeli( /yste*

ual Eer(y Re)ie! 2007 ;EE#03842007 as'i(to C :ue 2008. 2006 ad 2007 atural (as

/ur)ey 1994 ad idustrial ad !ell'ead ,rices -ro* t'e Natural Gas ual 2006 ;EE#01312006 as

;EE#0130200804 as'i(to C ,ril 2008. 2006 re-ii( cosu*,tio )alues "ased o


26/82

" o6 t?e A+er#c&% Recoer1 &%$ Re#%e"t+e%t Act &%$ Rece%t C?&%3e" #% t?e Eco%o

2011 2012 201 201! 201" 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.05 0.06 0.05

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.55 0.54 0.54 0.53 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48

1.79 1.71 1.66 1.66 1.64 1.64 1.61 1.60 1.62 1.61 1.61

0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

2.43 2.34 2.29 2.29 2.25 2.24 2.20 2.19 2.19 2.18 2.16

1.13 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.31

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.13 1.21 1.26 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.28 1.310.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.00 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26

0.06 0.08 0.12 0.21 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.27 0.29 0.31 0.32

0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.89 0.93 0.99 1.07 1.23 1.37

0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.21

4.66 4.66 4.71 4.77 4.79 4.84 4.86 4.93 5.02 5.20 5.37

0.41 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44

5.07 5.08 5.12 5.18 5.22 5.27 5.29 5.37 5.46 5.64 5.81

71 68 66 65 64 64 63 63 63 63 62100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

28 27 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 26

15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17

4 5 7 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 17

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6

20 20 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 22

0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.20 0.21 0.20

1.65 1.69 1.73 1.69 1.63 1.58 1.56 1.53 1.50 1.51 1.50

0.35 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34 0.34

1.20 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.19 1.20 1.19

0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

1.06 1.09 1.13 1.11 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05

0.77 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.77

1.01 1.10 1.16 1.17 1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.15 1.14 1.12

1.79 1.71 1.66 1.66 1.64 1.64 1.61 1.60 1.62 1.61 1.61


27/82

0.32 0.30 0.28 0.27 0.25 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.24

8.53 8.64 8.74 8.64 8.47 8.39 8.30 8.24 8.23 8.24 8.17

5.95 6.15 6.27 6.20 6.14 6.10 6.10 6.09 6.06 6.07 6.10

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.47 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46

1.26 1.24 1.23 1.21 1.20 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.23 1.247.69 7.87 7.98 7.90 7.82 7.78 7.77 7.77 7.75 7.77 7.80

0.54 0.55 0.56 0.55 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.51 0.51 0.50 0.50

1.03 1.06 1.09 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10

0.00 0.02 0.06 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.26

1.57 1.64 1.71 1.81 1.80 1.80 1.82 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86

0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.89 0.93 0.99 1.07 1.23 1.37

1.57 1.57 1.57 1.55 1.56 1.59 1.61 1.63 1.65 1.68 1.70

3.25 3.35 3.42 3.42 3.41 3.41 3.43 3.46 3.47 3.48 3.48

23.47 23.90 24.26 24.16 23.92 23.86 23.86 23.93 24.00 24.24 24.39

7.10 7.32 7.46 7.43 7.37 7.37 7.42 7.46 7.46 7.48 7.45

30.57 31.22 31.72 31.58 31.29 31.23 31.28 31.39 31.46 31.72 31.84

icity or electricity ad 'eat to t'e ,u"lic.

ery.

ot'er "io*ass sources.

cludes 'ydro(e ,roductio at re-iers !'ic' is icluded i

odel results ad *ay di--er sli('tly -ro* o--icial E data re,orts. *iistratio E eti( ual 2007

d road oil ,rices are "ased o E /tate Eer(y ata

E uarterly Coal Re,ort ;cto"er#ece*"er 2007

ru osti*ls.d041409a. 2006 ad 2007 electricity ,rices

,rices are "ased o E %au-acturi( Eer(y Cosu*,tio

'i(to C ;cto"er 2007 ad t'e Natural Gas %ot'ly

/u,,ly ual 2006 ;EE#034020061 as'i(to

0071 as'i(to C :uly 2008. ;t'er 2006 ad 2007

ue 2008. 2006 ad 2007 s'i,*ets $/ Glo"al si('t

041409a.


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#c Outloo

2022 202 202! 202" 2026 2027 2028 2029 200

0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.04

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.44

1.56 1.57 1.55 1.58 1.58 1.56 1.57 1.65 1.66

0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

2.10 2.11 2.10 2.13 2.13 2.10 2.11 2.19 2.16

1.35 1.36 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.43 1.43 1.33 1.41

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.35 1.36 1.38 1.36 1.36 1.43 1.43 1.33 1.410.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.28 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.46

0.34 0.36 0.38 0.40 0.43 0.45 0.47 0.49 0.52

1.56 1.64 1.61 1.63 1.66 1.75 1.79 1.89 1.94

0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.22

5.57 5.67 5.70 5.73 5.79 5.95 6.03 6.13 6.25

0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.46

6.01 6.11 6.14 6.17 6.23 6.41 6.48 6.59 6.72

62 61 61 61 61 61 61 60 60100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

26 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 28

17 17 17 17 17 18 18 17 18

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 26 27

6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7

23 23 23 23 23 24 24 25 25

0.20 0.20 0.22 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.18

1.49 1.48 1.46 1.45 1.41 1.37 1.34 1.30 1.26

0.34 0.34 0.34 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35

1.19 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.21 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.23

0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

1.04 1.03 1.02 1.01 0.99 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.88

0.76 0.76 0.75 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.74 0.72 0.72

1.10 1.09 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.12 1.11 1.12

1.56 1.57 1.55 1.58 1.58 1.56 1.57 1.65 1.66


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0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.21 0.21

8.07 8.04 8.01 8.03 8.00 7.90 7.84 7.84 7.76

6.15 6.19 6.24 6.23 6.23 6.27 6.23 6.09 6.12

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.41 0.40

1.28 1.34 1.36 1.39 1.40 1.42 1.42 1.42 1.447.88 7.98 8.05 8.07 8.07 8.12 8.08 7.93 7.96

0.49 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.42 0.40 0.39

1.10 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.09

0.28 0.30 0.32 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.43 0.46

1.87 1.89 1.91 1.92 1.92 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93

1.56 1.64 1.61 1.63 1.66 1.75 1.79 1.89 1.94

1.73 1.76 1.79 1.82 1.85 1.88 1.90 1.92 1.94

3.47 3.49 3.50 3.50 3.48 3.46 3.43 3.40 3.37

24.59 24.79 24.88 24.97 24.98 25.03 24.97 24.91 24.89

7.40 7.38 7.37 7.33 7.26 7.20 7.12 7.05 6.96

31.98 32.17 32.24 32.30 32.24 32.23 32.09 31.96 31.86


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teratioal Eer(y ;utloo> 2008

Re,ort J ;EE#04842008

Release ate :ue 2008

NeHt Release ate :ue 2009

-ull re,ort a)aila"le :uly 2008

T&5le F. Tot&l Worl$ Del#ere$ E%er31 Co%"u+t#o% 51 E%$-U"e Sector &%$ Fuel< 200-20!0u&$r#ll#o% Btu

Sector/Fuel Proect#o%"

200 200 20 2020 202 20!0

Re"#$e%t#&l

Liquids 10.4 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.1

Natural Gas 19.1 20.5 22.1 23.2 24.1 25.2

Coal 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3

Electricity 15.1 18.1 20.7 23.1 25.2 27.4

Ree!a"les 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

Tot&l *). 2.) '. (.! (*.* ('.(Co++erc#&l

Liquids 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.3

Natural Gas 7.3 7.6 8.2 8.7 9.2 9.6

Coal 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

Electricity 12.3 14.6 17.1 19.2 21.3 23.4

Ree!a"les 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Tot&l 2.( 2).2 !. !*.2 !(., !,.

I%$u"tr#&l

Liquids 55.4 58.6 61.8 65.3 68.3 72.0

Natural Gas 45.2 51.4 57.6 62.6 66.5 70.2

Coal 41.2 46.0 51.0 55.3 59.9 64.2

Electricity 26.2 32.7 38.4 43.2 47.9 52.2 Ree!a"les 2.0 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.4 4.5

Tot&l '0.0 ,.2 2.) 2!0.0 2*'.0 2(!.

Tr&%"ort&t#o%

Liquids 88.2 98.2 108.1 116.2 123.9 132.8

Natural Gas 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6

Coal 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0

Electricity 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1

Tot&l ,0.2 00.* 0. ).' 2(. !.*

All E%$-U"e Sector"

Liquids 159.0 172.0 185.5 197.5 208.5 221.2

Natural Gas 72.6 80.7 89.1 95.9 101.3 106.5

Coal 45.3 50.4 55.7 60.0 64.4 68.5 Electricity 54.4 66.3 77.1 86.4 95.4 104.1

Ree!a"les 2.9 3.4 3.8 4.3 5.2 5.3

Del#ere$ E%er31 !!*.! !'2.( *.2 ***.2 *'*.) 0.'

Electricity#Related Losses a 128.0 139.8 151.8 164.2 177.0 189.0

Tot&l *(2.2 2. (!.0 (0).* (.) (,*.'

Electr#c Po4er /5

Liquids 10.4 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.1


31/82

Natural Gas 34.7 39.6 45.2 51.0 54.5 58.2

Coal 77.2 89.8 102.0 111.7 122.3 133.7

Nuclear 27.5 28.8 31.4 34.5 37.7 39.4

Ree!a"les 32.4 38.5 41.1 44.8 49.4 53.6

Tot&l )2.* 20(. 22).) 20.( 2'2.* 2,!.

Tot&l E%er31 Co%"u+t#o%

Liquids 169.4 181.1 194.4 206.1 216.9 229.3 Natural Gas 107.4 120.3 134.4 146.9 155.8 164.7

Coal 122.5 140.2 157.8 171.7 186.7 202.2

Nuclear 27.5 28.8 31.4 34.5 37.7 39.4

Ree!a"les 35.5 42.0 45.0 49.3 54.7 59.0

Tot&l *(2.2 2. (!.0 (0).* (.) (,*.'

a Electricity losses icurred i t'e tras*issio ad distri"utio o- electric ,o!er. %ay iclude so*e 'eat ,ro


/ources 2005 eri)ed -ro* Eer(y -or*atio d*iistratio E teratioal Eer(y ual 2005 :u

!!!.eia.doe.(o)iea. 2008 ;EE#03832008 as'i(to C

Natioal Eer(y %odeli( /yste* ru E;2008.031608 !e" site !!!.eia.doe.(o)oia-aeo? ad orld


32/82

0.3

1.1

0.2

2.4

#0.4

.!

0.2

1.1

0.9

2.6

0.0

.'

1.1

1.8

1.8

2.83.2

.)

1.6

1.9

#100.0

1.2

.(

1.3

1.5

1.72.6

2.4

.'

1.6

.(

#1.0

Aer&3e A%%u&l Perce%tC?&%3e< 200-20!0


33/82

2.1

2.2

1.5

2.0

.,

1.21.7

2.0

1.5

2.1

.(

uctio.

#;cto"er 2007 !e" site

:ue 2008 E;2008

er(y


34/82


Re,ort J ;EE#04842008




T&5le F2. Tot&l OECD Del#ere$ E%er31 Co%"u+t#o% 51 E%$-U"e Sector &%$ Fuel< 200-20!0u&$r#ll#o% Btu


200 200 20 2020 202 20!0

Re"#$e%t#&l

Liquids 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1

Natural Gas 12.2 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.0 13.1

Coal 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Electricity 10.0 11.0 11.5 12.2 12.8 13.5

Ree!a"les 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Tot&l 2).( 2,.! !0.2 !.0 !.) !2.(Co++erc#&l

Liquids 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

Natural Gas 6.3 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.2 7.4

Coal 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

Electricity 9.1 10.3 11.4 12.3 13.3 14.2

Ree!a"les 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Tot&l ,.2 20.2 2.' 2!.0 2*.2 2.!

I%$u"tr#&l

Liquids 28.5 28.0 28.5 28.4 28.6 29.1

Natural Gas 17.9 19.3 20.2 20.8 21.5 22.0

Coal 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.5


Tot&l ().) '.0 '!.( '.2 ''.! ',.

Tr&%"ort&t#o%

Liquids 57.5 59.4 62.6 64.4 65.8 67.6

Natural Gas 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9

Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Electricity 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Tot&l ). (0. (!.) (.( ('.0 ().)

All E%$-U"e Sector"

Liquids 94.7 95.7 99.5 101.3 102.8 105.1

Natural Gas 37.1 38.8 40.3 41.5 42.6 43.4


Ree!a"les 2.7 3.1 3.5 4.1 5.0 5.1

Del#ere$ E%er31 '.2 ).0 ),.! ,*., 200.! 20.)


Tot&l 2*0., 2*,.' 2(0. 2(,.0 2''.( 2).,

Electr#c Po4er /5

Liquids 3.9 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0


35/82

Natural Gas 16.4 18.5 20.9 22.6 23.6 24.9

Coal 37.5 38.8 39.9 41.3 43.0 44.9

Nuclear 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 26.0 26.8

Ree!a"les 15.4 18.1 19.3 21.0 22.4 23.5

Tot&l ,(.( 02.2 0'.2 2.2 '.! 22.!



Coal 47.3 48.7 49.9 51.2 52.9 55.0

Nuclear 23.2 23.8 24.3 24.8 26.0 26.8

Ree!a"les 18.2 21.3 22.9 25.2 27.5 28.7

Tot&l 2*0., 2*,.' 2(0. 2(,.0 2''.( 2).,







36/82

#0.2

0.3

#1.3

1.2

#0.5

0.

#0.1

0.7

#0.6

1.8

0.0

.

0.1

0.8

0.1

0.93.3

0.(

0.7

1.1

#100.0

0.3

0.'

0.4

0.6

0.11.3

2.6

0.(

0.8

0.'

#2.6



37/82

1.7

0.7

0.6

1.7

0.,

0.31.0

0.6

0.6

1.8

0.'

uctio.


:ue 2008 E;2008

er(y


38/82


Re,ort J ;EE#04842008




T&5le F!. Del#ere$ E%er31 Co%"u+t#o% #% t?e U%#te$ St&te" 51 E%$-U"e Sector &%$ Fuel< 200-20!0u&$r#ll#o% Btu


200 200 20 2020 202 20!0

Re"#$e%t#&l

Liquids 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

Natural Gas 5.0 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3

Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Electricity 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.9

Ree!a"les 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Tot&l . .' ., 2.! 2.( 2.,Co++erc#&l

Liquids 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Natural Gas 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.8

Coal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Electricity 4.4 4.7 5.2 5.7 6.1 6.6

Ree!a"les 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Tot&l ).* ).( ,.* 0.0 0.' .!

I%$u"tr#&l

Liquids 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.2

Natural Gas 7.9 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3

Coal 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.3


Tot&l 2.0 2.) 2(.! 2(.' 2'. 2'.'

Tr&%"ort&t#o%

Liquids 27.3 28.3 29.6 30.4 31.0 32.1

Natural Gas 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8

Coal 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Electricity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Tot&l 2'., 2,.0 !0.* !.2 !., !!.0

All E%$-U"e Sector"

Liquids 39.2 39.9 41.2 41.7 42.2 43.4

Natural Gas 16.6 17.0 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.3


Ree!a"les 2.5 2.9 3.3 3.9 4.7 4.8

Del#ere$ E%er31 '2.) '. ').0 )0.2 )2.( )*.,


Tot&l 00. 0!.! 0'.! 0.) *. ).0

Electr#c Po4er /5

Liquids 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6


39/82

Natural Gas 6.0 6.9 6.7 6.1 5.4 5.1

Coal 20.7 21.0 22.2 23.7 25.5 27.5

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.6

Ree!a"les 3.4 4.6 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.2

Tot&l !,.' *. *!. *.2 *'.2 *,.2



Coal 22.8 23.0 24.2 25.9 27.7 29.9

Nuclear 8.2 8.3 8.4 9.1 9.5 9.6

Ree!a"les 6.0 7.6 8.5 9.7 10.9 11.2

Tot&l 00. 0!.! 0'.! 0.) *. ).0







40/82

#0.5

0.3

#0.7

1.0

#0.7

0.*

#0.2

0.8

#0.1

1.7

0.0

.2

#0.2

0.2

0.6

0.13.4

0.*

0.7

1.1

K

1.3

0.'

0.4

0.4

0.61.0

2.7

0.(

0.8

0.'

#2.7



41/82

#0.6

1.1

0.6

2.4

0.,

0.30.1

1.1

0.6

2.5

0.'

uctio.


:ue 2008 E;2008

er(y


42/82

0.103 Annual interest rate for capital (EIA uses 0.103)

20 Lifetime (years) (EIA uses 20, but 30-40 probably is realistic)

1 calin! factor for capital costs for "# an$ %in$ for 2030 (use 1.0 for EIA

YEAR 2008 INPUT PARAMETERS

*e% coal scrubbe$ 20+ &4 20 0.004' 2&.+3 1.3

I/ coal 23& &4 20 0.002 3.'& 1.3I/ coal % 34' &4 20 0.0044 4'.12 1.3

*/ steamturbine &+0 42 20 0.0020 11.& .&

*/ a$ance$ 4 42 20 0.0020 11.& .&

*/ a$. % 10 42 20 0.002 1. .&

/eotermal 1&11 0 20 0.0000 1'4.'4 0.00

onentional y$ro 2242 '+ 20 0.0024 13.'3 0.00

in$ onsore 123 3 20 0.0000 30.3 0.00

in$ offsore 3+1 40 20 0.0000 .4 0.00

olar termal +021 31 20 0.0000 +'.& 0.00

olar "# '03 21 20 0.0000 11.' 0.00

YEAR 2030 INPUT PARAMETERS

*e% coal scrubbe$ 1'+4 & 20 0.004' 2&.+3 2.04

I/ coal 104 & 20 0.002 3.'& 2.04

I/ coal % 2+33 & 20 0.0044 4'.12 2.04

*/ steamturbine &00 4' 20 0.0020 11.& .34

*/ a$ance$ &1& 4' 20 0.0020 11.& .34

*/ a$. % 1340 4' 20 0.002 1. .34

EIAAnnual Energy Outlook 2009estimation of the cost of el

$a%ital cost

&'()*+

$a%acit

factor

,ifetime

&ears+

-ariale

/M

&'()*h+

ie /M

&'()*(r

+

#el cost

&'(MM4T

U+

$a%ital cost

&'()*+

$a%acit

factor

,ifetime

&ears+

-ariale

/M

&'()*h+

ie /M

&'()*(r

+

#el cost

&'(MM4T

U+


43/82

/eotermal 342 0 20 0.0000 1'4.'4 0.00

onentional y$ro 120 ++ 20 0.0024 13.'3 0.00

in$ onsore 1'1+ 4' 20 0.0000 30.3 0.00

in$ offsore 2+ 40 20 0.0000 .4 0.00

olar termal 302 31 20 0.0000 +'.& 0.00

olar "# 323 21 20 0.0000 11.' 0.00

I/ 5 inte!rate$ !asification combine$ cycle6 5 carbon capture an$ se7uestration6 5

*ote8 in all cases, $ata for */ steamturbine are my assumptions.

$alc#lations of 5ei!hte a"era!e cost of ca%ital &*A$$+

apital costs in 200 an$ 2030 are from 9able .13 of te EIA:sAssumptions to the Annual E

total oerni!t costs, an$ inclu$e pro;ect contin!ency, tecnolo!ical optimism factors, an$ l

te !ien year. In year-200& $ollars. 9e scalin! factor is use$ to conert te reference cas

(200b) 9able .13, tis ratio is 0.&0&' for %in$ an$ s

apacity factors for rene%ables are from 9able 13.2 of te EIA:sAssumptions to the Annual E

for te year 2012 (%ic %e use for 200) an$ te year 2030. apacity factor for coal an$ n

aera!e capacity factors for coal an$ */ in 200&, as reporte$ in 9able A' of te EIA:s Electri

coal an$ natural !as for 2030 assume$ to be + (coal) or 10 (*/) i!er tan in 200&, bec

factor is increasin! oer time.

Lifetime base$ on tis statement in EIA:s *E< an$ fi?e$ =>< are from 9able .2 of te EIA:sAssumptions to the Annual Energy

of alues6 %e assume tese are te same in 2030 an$ 200. I

uel costs for coal an$ natural !as use$ in te electricity sector are from 9able 3 of EIA:sAnnu

ombustion efficiency is calculate$ from eat rates so%n in 9able .2 of te EIA:sAssumption

9able so%s te rate in 200 an$ te rate for te nt-of-a-@in$ plant, %ic %e assume appl

EIA states tat eat rates for fossil-fuele$ tecnolo!ies are assume$ to $ecline linearly tr

C9Ds are base$ on i!er eatin! alues, %ic is te EIA:s

iscount rate estimate is base$ on te EIA:s estimate of te %ei!te$ aera!e cost of capital

electricity mo$ule of te *ational Ene!y


44/82

EIA (2009c) Fthenakis et al (2009)

0.30 0.30 orporate ta? rate (0.3 in EIA,

0.4+0 0.4+0 ebt fraction

0.1+ 0.100 E7uity interest rate

0.0+ 0.0'+ ebt interest rate

10.3 &.3 alculate$ A

$om%arison of o#r 5ei!hte a"era!e cost 5ith EIA NEMS in AE/

A"era!e cost &cents( 6eneration share AEO 200! generation "at

200! 20#0 200! 20#0 200! 20#0

oal '.2 '.0 4 4' 2000 2311

*atural !as steam 11.+ 11.0 + 31 2+4

*atural !as .3 .0 13 14 +20 &22=il 12.0 1+.1 1 1 4' +0

*uclear +.0 +.+ 20 1 & 0

Fy$ro +.0 +.3 10 1' 34 &

ei!te$ aera!e '.& '.' $07! %02%

EIA AE= 2008 '.+ '.


45/82

reference case, 0.&0&' for EIA allin! costs case)

$A,$U,ATE7 RESU,TS

3& G0.03 G0.02& G0.0'+

3 G0.044 G0.02' G0.0&032 G0.0'+ G0.032 G0.0&

34 G0.024 G0.04 G0.11

+1 G0.031 G0.0'+ G0.0'

40 G0.0'2 G0.0+ G0.14'

100 G0.02' G0.021 G0.04&

100 G0.04& G0.00+ G0.0+2

100 G0.0' G0.00 G0.0&

100 G0.132 G0.02' G0.1+&

100 G0.222 G0.021 G0.243

100 G0.33 G0.00' G0.400

$A,$U,ATE7 RESU,TS

3 G0.02 G0.02' G0.0+'

4' G0.032 G0.024 G0.0+'

41 G0.04+ G0.02 G0.0&3

3' G0.021 G0.04 G0.10+

+4 G0.021 G0.0+ G0.0&

4' G0.040 G0.0&0 G0.110

ctricit !eneration for "ario#s technolo!ies

$om#stio

n

efficienc

Amortie

initial cost

&'()*h+

Perioic

costs

&'()*h+

Total cost

&'()*h+

$om#stio

n

efficienc

Amortie

initial cost

&'()*h+

Perioic

costs

&'()*h+

Total cost

&'()*h+


46/82

100 G0.0'0 G0.021 G0.01

100 G0.04 G0.00+ G0.0+3

100 G0.04 G0.00 G0.0+'

100 G0.0 G0.02' G0.123

100 G0.13' G0.021 G0.1+&

100 G0.24 G0.00' G0.2++

combine$ cycle6 "# 5 potooltaic.

ergy Outlook 2009 (200b). 9e capital costs are

earnin! factors. osts pertain to pro;ects online in

to te fallin! costs case6 accor$in! to te EIA

lar in 2030.

ergy Outlook 2009 (200b). 9e EIA so%s alues

atural !as for 200 assume$ to be e7ual to actual

Power Annual 2007(200$). apacity factors for

use te EIA (200$) $ata in$icate tat te capacity

on te basis of total capital an$ operatin! costs

. +).

Outlook 2009 (200b). 9e EIA so%s only one set

n year-200& $olars.

l Energy Outlook(200a).

s to the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (200b). 9at

ies to te year 2030. (Else%ere in tat report, te

u! 202+ EIA, 200b, p. B.) e assume tat

usual conention.

(A). In i!ure of te $ocumentation for te

%n to be about 10.4 in 200 an$ 10.2 in 2030


47/82

a &atural gas "ata

200! 20#0

3 &' 9otal *atural !as !eneration (AE= 200, 9able )

0.'2 0.&4 (base$ on capacity reporte$ in AE= 200 9able )


48/82

$alc#lation of transmission costs

'ow cost i" cost igh cost

200 20 340 G


49/82

G420 G'0 G4'+ G+10 9otal station cost (million G)

1,20& 2,414 1,20& 1,20& 9ransmission $istance (@m)

13 134 14 103 Losses at full loa$ (


50/82

+.2 2.+ 1,'3 G21+ 1334+ @# A EH=9-9=-1A

+.2 3.& 1,31 G24& 34+ @# A EH=9-9=-1C

11.' 4.3 2,3&' G111 34+ @# A EH=9-9=-2

1.0 '.3 3,03' G&3 34+ @# A an$ F# EH=9-9=-3

1&.+ +.&+ 2,4 G2 34+ @# A an$ F# EH=9-9=-4

4.+ 1.13 '2+ G2+0 34+ @# A ""-2

3.0 0.32 230 G2 34+ @# A EH=9-3

3. 0.' '2 G12 34+ @# A EH=9-3

3. 0.' '+0 G21' 34+ @# A EH=9- of ann#al 5infarm %ro#ction+

%00 4 500 4

100 @m 1.& 1.&&

200 @m 2.11 2.04

$on"erter fraction of total loss

%00 4 500 4

100 @m & 0

200 @m && &+

$on"erter loss= &> of ann#al 5infarm %ro#ction+

%00 4 500 4

100 @m 1.'3 1.42

200 @m 1.'2 1.+3


51/82

m)

ers, po%er con$itioners, conerters, etc.), at reference po%er (G


52/82

lion G)

-@m)

otal

capacity)


53/82


54/82

T?IS ANA,YSIS IS

INPUTS

10 iscar!e capacity of te battery to 100 o (@)

400


55/82

omponents of te cost of #2/ cyclin!, per @ $i

0.23 Annualie$ cost of present alue of can!e in batter

0.004 Annualie$ cost of e?tra electronic an$ infrastructure

0.021 ost of replacin! electricity lost in car!e$iscar!e

0.293 9otal cost per @ $ierte$ to #2/ cyclin!

T?ESE ARE INPUTS AN7 RESU,TS /R T?E $/NSUMER PERSPE$TI-E= USIN6 T?E ,

Inputs

0.40 Lo%er boun$ on ratio of te actual alue of te battery at en$ of

0.0 E?ponent on ener!y remainin! fraction, in ratio $escribe$ aboe

1+0 erice cost of remoin! battery an$ re-usin! it in oter eicles

14 Life of eicle (years)

Unused calculations (for consumer perspective, over the life of the vehicle

&o


56/82

0.300 0.'2

0.400 0.'

0.+00 0.&4+

0.'00 0.&

0.&00 0.+1

0.00 0.02

0.00 0.+1

0.+0 0.&'

0.0 0.0

1.000 1.000


57/82

4ASE7 /N AN ESTIMATE / T?E T/TA, 4ATTERY $Y$,E ,IE

%ic #2/ cyclin! is normalie$ ()

-of-life capacity $e!ra$ation criteria as is use$ in re!ar$s to cycle life, for automo

$ $eployin! it in non-automotie applications (G)

eful life as a motor-eicle battery (percent of ori!inal total retail cost, e?clu$in!

o, per $ay (stan$ar$ cycles$ay)

$ infrastructure (year)

ery terminal)

an$ $iscar!in! losses insi$e battery)

!ri$ connection)

losses from !ri$ connection at #2/ ouse to final en$ user)

ctricity lost by #2/ cyclin! (G@)

life or cyclin! to 0 o) (years)

y cost %it installation, remoal of ol$ battery, alue of ol$ battery in non-autom

ry life (perio$)

to battery car!er, per year (base$ on cyclin! normalie$ to 0 o) (@-se

e #2/ system, per eicle (G)


58/82

rte$ to #2/ cyclin! (G@-sent-to-battery-car!er)

-replacement an$ $isposal fre7uency, $ue to #2/ cyclin!

yclin!

E / T?E -E?I$,E AS T?E TIME ?/RI@/N.

eicle life to %at te alue %oul$ be if it %ere proportional to ener!y remainin!

r non-automotie applications, at en$ of eicle life (G)

le life

ry at en$ of eicle life to %at te automotie-use alue %oul$ be if it %ere pro

of battery at en$ of eicle life, plus present alue of battery use in non-automoti

or unused calculation, for consumer perspective


59/82


60/82

ie use) (years)

serice cost)

tie mar@ets

t-to-battery-car!eryear)


61/82

in te battery (e?clu$in! cost of remoal an$ re-use in oter eicles or non-au

ortional to ener!y remainin! in te battery (e?clu$in! cost of remoal an$ re-u

e applications at en$ of battery automotie-use life, net of sericin!re$eploy


62/82


63/82


64/82

tomotie applications)

e in oter eicles)

ent costs (ne!atie alue is cost, positie alue is benefit)


65/82


66/82

T?IS ANA,YSIS IS 4ASE7

INPUTS

10 iscar!e capacity of te battery to 100 o (@)

400


67/82

30.0 1+.4 Lifetime of battery in eicle use -- years until $iscar!e

&,'0 &,'0 *et cost of battery replacement, inclu$in! ne% battery c

143 + iscount rate for te perio$ of time e7ual to te battery

- 2,&+0 Electricity $ierte$ to #2/ cyclin!, measure$ at input to

omponents of te cost of #2/ cyclin!, per @ $ierte

0.0 Annualie$ cost of present alue of can!e in battery-re

0.004 Annualie$ cost of e?tra electronic an$ infrastructure

0.021 ost of replacin! electricity lost in car!e$iscar!e cycli

0.113 9otal cost per @ $ierte$ to #2/ cyclin!

T?ESE ARE INPUTS AN7 RESU,TS /R T?E $/NSUMER PERSPE$TI-E= USIN6 T?E ,IE

Inputs

0.40 Lo%er boun$ on ratio of te actual alue of te battery at en$ of e

0.0 E?ponent on ener!y remainin! fraction, in ratio $escribe$ aboe

1+0 erice cost of remoin! battery an$ re-usin! it in oter eicles or

14 Life of eicle (years)

Unused calculations (for consumer perspective, over the life of the vehicle

&o


68/82


69/82

/N ESTIMATES / T?E ,/SS / 4ATTERY $APA$ITY PER *

$ra%n, $riin!

$ra%n, #2/ cyclin!

life

ic #2/ cyclin! is normalie$ ()

-life capacity $e!ra$ation criteria as is use$ in re!ar$s to cycle life, for automot$eployin! it in non-automotie applications (G)

ul life as a motor-eicle battery (percent of ori!inal total retail cost, e?clu$in!

o, per $ay (stan$ar$ cycles$ay)

nfrastructure (year)

terminal)

n$ $iscar!in! losses insi$e battery)

i$ connection)

ses from !ri$ connection at #2/ ouse to final en$ user)

ricity lost by #2/ cyclin! (G@)

#2/ system, per eicle (G)


70/82

capacity is $e!ra$e$ by 20

st %it installation, remoal of ol$ battery, alue of ol$ battery in non-automoti

life (perio$)

battery car!er, per year (base$ on cyclin! normalie$ to 0 o) (@-sent

to #2/ cyclin! (G@-sent-to-battery-car!er)

lacement an$ $isposal fre7uency, $ue to #2/ cyclin!

n!

/ T?E -E?I$,E AS T?E TIME ?/RI@/N.

icle life to %at te alue %oul$ be if it %ere proportional to ener!y remainin! i

non-automotie applications, at en$ of eicle life (G)

fe

t en$ of eicle life to %at te automotie-use alue %oul$ be if it %ere propo

attery at en$ of eicle life, plus present alue of battery use in non-automoti

nused calculation, for consumer perspective


71/82


72/82

? *IT?7RA*N

ie use) (years)

erice cost)


73/82

e mar@ets

to-battery-car!eryear)

n te battery (e?clu$in! cost of remoal an$ re-use in oter eicles or non-au

rtional to ener!y remainin! in te battery (e?clu$in! cost of remoal an$ re-use

applications at en$ of battery automotie-use life, net of sericin!re$eployme


74/82


75/82


76/82

omotie applications)

in oter eicles)

nt costs (ne!atie alue is cost, positie alue is benefit)


77/82


78/82

,ithi#m %ercenta!e of atteries= an cost of lithi#m %er )!

4atter t%e ;;B N$A;6 N$A;6 N$A;6 N$A;6 ,P;6

#eicle Han!e(mi) at 300 mile 4 20 40 100 4

9otal Li in battery pac@ (@!) 0.3& 1.+ 3 &.4 0.24

Cattery mass (@!) 31 &' 140 3+0 3+

'ithium percent o, >attery 52+ 20+ 25+ 25+ 07+

'()! '()!;,i

Litium carbonate (Li2 =3) '.+ 34

Litium y$ro?i$e (Li=F) 10.0 3'

ource8 /aines, L., an$ ". *elson, NLitium-Ion Catteries8 "ossible


79/82

,P;6 ,P;6 ,P;6 ,M/;6 ,M/;6 ,M/;6 ,M/;6,M/;Ti/,M/;Ti/,M/;Ti/

20 40 100 4 20 40 100 4 20 40

0.3 1. 4.& 0.1& 0.'& 1.4 3.4 0.'4 2.+ +.1

2 1+0 3&' 2' '3 11+ 2 3' 10' 20

55+ 5#+ 5#+ 07+ 55+ 52+ 52+ 5!+ 2$+ 2$+

resente$ at 9e 13t International Cattery


80/82

,M/;Ti/

100

12.&

+23

2$+

ty


81/82

$o#ntr Reser"es Reser"

EO &"O EO &"O EO

Dnite$ tates 0 0.000 13 2.0 14

Australia 0 0.000 +.2 0. +.

ina 0.12 0.022 2& 4.

I n.a. 0.000 1 3.4 21

In$ia 0.003 0.001 1.1 0.2 1.3

=ters 0.001 0.000 22 4.0 23

4orl" total 052$ 0022 !! 5%# 5%0

HE= 5 total rare eart o?i$e

*$ = 5 neo$ymium o?i$e

alculation of impact on supply of $eman$ for *$ by %in

0.2 *$ per


82/82

e 4ase Reso#rces

&"O EO &"O

2.1 n.r. 0.0 1+

1.0 n.r. 0.0 1

1'.0 n.r. 0.0 1

3. n.r. 0.0 1

0.2 n.r. 0.0 1

4.1 n.r. 0.0 1

27# 00

$ turbines

n reso#rces 5orl5ie &million metric tones of rare earth

N > oftotal RE/

=erylar e@

wwsenergypolicy spreadsheet

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