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WSC
82nd Annual Proceedings 2014
58640_WSC Cover_nk.indd 1 11/19/2014 10:53:04 AM
PROCEEDINGS
OF THE
WESTERN SNOW CONFERENCE
STRATER HOTEL DURANGO, COLORADO
APRIL 14-17, 2014
EIGHTY-SECOND ANNUAL MEETING
Peter Palmer (General Chair) Jon Lea (Secretary/Treasurer) U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Ret. U.S.D.A. N.R.C.S, Ret.
Randy Julander – Conference Chair
Mark Williams - South Continental Area Chair Bruce McGurk – Technical Tour Chair
Al Rango – Vendor Chair Bruce McGurk - Editor
Printed By
Omnipress
1-800-828-0305 - www.omnipress.com
For sale by the Western Snow Conference Order from:
Jon Lea PO Box 485
Brush Prairie, WA. 98606 [email protected]
Cover Photos:
Front: Dusty Snow near Molas Pass, CO By Bruce McGurk
Back Top: Mesa Verde, CO By Kate Didricksen
Back Bottom: Durango & Silverton Narrow Gauge Railroad By Bruce McGurk
IN MEMORIAM
Harold "Hal" E. Klieforth
Harold "Hal" E. Klieforth, resident of Bishop, CA, and Reno, NV, died 12 July 2014 at the age of 87. Hal was born in San Francisco in 1927. He grew up in San Anselmo in Marin County, CA. At a young age, Hal developed a remarkable curiosity and sense for the outdoors and natural history. He went on to achieve a B.S. and M.S. in meteorology from Univ. of California, Los Angeles, that positioned him as a project scientist on the Sierra Wave Project 1951-1954 (Owens Valley, CA) and the Mountain Wave-Jetstream Project in 1955 where he flew on multiple sailplane missions as a scientific observer. Hal also received a Fulbright fellowship to Imperial College, London from 1956 to 1957. He served as chief meteorologist with U.S. Air Force, Geophysics Research Directorate at Edwards AFB, CA from 1958 to 1964. In 1965, Hal joined the Desert Research Institute in Reno as meteorologist and forecaster for the cloud seeding program where he maintained a precipitation observation network that transected portions of the Sierra Nevada and encompassed much of the Lake Tahoe watershed from 1965 to 1996. Hal remained a professor emeritus at DRI until his death helping on projects, assisting students, and sharing his intimate knowledge of the Sierra Nevada. Hal was a fierce observationalist, particularly of mountain clouds, and documented historical trends with photography and hand-written logs. He never said no to a hike and was known for his extraordinary physical stamina until weeks before his death. Hal possessed a modest and genuine manner and relished assisting others. An incomparable void remains with his loss. Hal is survived by his younger sister, Diane Klieforth, and his two sons, Robert and David Klieforth.
(Reno Gazette, Aug. 24, 2014) Hal was a devoted member of the WSC, and was recently the banquet speaker at the 2011 WSC meeting in Stateline, NV. Hal presented at the Annual Meetings and published in the WSC Proceedings. His knowledge of the Sierra and its climatology and natural history was exhaustive. His work at DRI was a giant contribution to weather data and weather network installation and operation. In his later years he centralized his massive collection of photographs, books, field notes, and other material on the Sierra in a small office in Bishop. Hal hiked to the Lyell Glacier at the head of the Tuolumne River basin on an annual basis to "keep track of how it is doing." The WSC has lost a dear friend, and the Sierra Nevada lost a keen observer and compulsive record keeper. We will miss you, Hal.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2014 WESTERN SNOW CONFERENCE
TABLE OF CONTENTS
PAPERS Payette River Basin, Idaho: High-Resolution Modeling and Gauging
by Mel Kunkel, Derek Blestrud, Pat Holbrook, Shaun Parkinson, Brandal Glenn, Matt Fletcher, Sean Elliot, and Al Pittman .......................................................................... 1
Dust-On-Snow Effects on Colorado Hydrographs
by Chris Landry and Kim Buck ................................................................................................... 13 Projected Changes in Snowfall Extremes and Interannual Snowfall Variability in the Western United States
by Abby C. Lute and John T. Abatzoglou ..................................................................................... 21 Understanding Trends in Snow Accumulation and Streamflow Using Snow Telemetry and Streamgage Observations in the Missouri River Headwaters
by Thomas Matthews and Jordy Hendrikx .................................................................................... 33 Are Temperature-Index Models Appropriate for Assessing Climate Change Impacts On Snowmelt
by Mark S. Raleigh and Martyn P. Clark ....................................................................................... 45 Predicting Streamflow Hydrograph Recession from Soil Moisture Loss at Utah SNOTEL Sites
by Jordan Clayton .......................................................................................................................... 53 Soil Moisture Dynamics During Snowmelt
by Kent Sutcliffe ........................................................................................................................... 69 Use of Snow Data From Remote Sensing in Operational Streamflow Prediction
by Stacie Bender, Paul Miller, Brent Bernard, and John Lhotak ................................................... 79
Percent Bias Assessment of Water-Supply Outlooks in the Colorado River Basin
by Brent Harrison and Roger Bales ................................................................................................. 91 Modeling of Interannual Snow Storage for Long-Term Simulation
by Noriaka Ohara, Ryan Johnson, and Jacob Heward ................................................................. 101 Niveograph Interpolation To Estimate Peak Accumulation of Snow Water Equivalent in Rocky Mountain National Park
by Glenn G. Patterson and Steven R. Fassnacht .......................................................................... 109 Snow Water Equivalent Estimates in the Hindu Kush and the Sierra Nevada Using Passive Microwave and Reconstruction
by Edward H. Bair, Jeff Dozier, Carrie Voyuvich, and Robert E. Davis .................................... 117 Optimizing Hydrologic Models Using Multi-Temporal LiDAR
by Andrew Hedrick, Hans-Peter Marshall, Adam Winstral, and Kelly Elder ............................. 129
Doing Hydrology Backward: Estimating Mountain Precipitation Patterns from Streamflow
by Brian Henn, Martyn P. Clark, Dmitri Kavetski, and Jessica D. Lundquist............................. 141 POSTERS Using Hydrochemistry Data to Constrain the Role of Snow and Ice Meltwater in the Langtang Valley, Nepal
by Alāna M. Wilson, Mark W. Williams, and Rijan B. Kayastha ............................................... 155 Impact of Future Climate On Water Availability of Snowmelt-Dominated Watersheds of the Upper Rio Grande Basin
by Emile Elias, A. Rango, C. Steele, and John F. Mejia.............................................................. 159 The 2014 California Drought - Dealing with Extreme Dryness From A Hydroelectric Planning Perspective
by Gary J. Freeman ...................................................................................................................... 163 Above-Canopy Snow Transport Rate in the Central Colorado Subalpine Zone
by Charles F. Leaf ........................................................................................................................ 169 Airborne Snow Observatory: Hetch Hetchy Basin Snow Water Equivalent Time Series, 2013
by Bruce J. McGurk and Thomas H. Painter ............................................................................... 173 Opportunities and Limitations For Assessing Ski Area Vulnerability and Potential Low-Snow Adaptation Strategies in the Changing Climate
by Lisa S. Nichols and Tim G. Frazier ........................................................................................ 177 Climate Change Risks To Our Snowmelt Water Supply and Possible Adaptation Responses in the Southwest U.S.
by Albert Rango, Emile Elias, and Caiti Steele ........................................................................... 181 Will the 2014 Drought in California Set A Record?
by Maury Roos 185 Simulating Streamflow Under a Warming Climate: Implications for Acequia Communities in the Upper Rio Grande
by Caitriana Steele, Emile Elias, Albert Rango, John Mejia, and A. Fernald ............................. 189 Winter in New France: A Constant Battle (1535 - 1763)
by Jerrry Toupin ........................................................................................................................... 193 Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent and Subsequent Snowmelt Runoff Patterns of Paired Basins in Southwest Montana
by Jason Welz, Jordy Hendrikx, Stuart Challender, and Paul Stoy ............................................. 197 SNOW NOTES Minutes of the Western Snow Conference Executive Committee Meeting ............................................. 207 Minutes of the Western Snow Conference Business Meeting .................................................................. 211 82nd Annual Meeting of the Western Snow Conference – Attendees ...................................................... 213
Western Snow Conference Executive Committee Meeting Durango, Colorado USA April 14, 2014
In attendance: Abramovich, Ron Bellingham, Keith Freeman, Gary Julander, Randy Kunkel, Mel Lea, Jolyne
Lea, Jon McGurk, Bruce Moore, Brandon Osterhuber , Randall Palmer, Peter Pattee, Scott
Rango, Al Richards, Kevin Zukiewicz, Lucas Williams, Mark
General Chair Peter Palmer called the meeting to order at 1510.
Minutes of the 2014 Executive Committee Meeting Welcome and Introductions Those in attendance introduced themselves. Steven Fassnacht participated by conference call from his
office for part of the session. Missing members were recognized. Ted Fathauer from Fairbanks, Alaska, a long term member who has for many years purchased copies of the Proceedings, passed away during the year.
WSC 2013 Executive Committee Meeting Minutes Jon Lea read the Minutes from the 2013 Executive Committee Meeting from Jackson, Wyoming. The
minutes were printed in the 2013 Proceedings. No changes were made to the Minutes; they will stand as printed in the 2013 WSC Proceedings.
Secretary/Treasurer’s Report Jon Lea reported: The transfer of the Secretary/Treasurer duties from Osterhuber to Lea has been completed. The Soda
Springs, California bank account has been closed and all funds are now in the Battleground, Washington Bank
The USFS once again paid for the shipping of the 2013 Proceedings. Several book resellers have downsized their standing request for the Proceedings from last year to just meet
their client’s needs. These copies of the 2013 Proceedings were mailed in December. At the same time all of the “out of country” mailings were also completed. The total expense for this mailing was $169.90.
73 people have registered for this year’s conference including seven vendors. All but 4 registered through the on-line registration.
Current bank balance is $15,117.58. The WSC has made deposits of $8122.76 toward this year’s conference; we are anticipating approximately
$6,000 in hotel/banquet charges for the 2014 conference, and about $1500 for the bus rental for the field trip.
So far we have paid $667 in registration fees for our on-line registration. Copy of the latest balance sheet and a copy of the WSC’s 2013 Form 990 Federal Tax Return were
circulated around to the participants. All financial records are stored in LaCenter, Washington and open to inspection.
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Discussion of student registration cost was discussed, as there were 23 student registrations. The Executive council was reminded of the conference rule of thumb from the 2006 Exec meeting, that student registrations (as well as lifetime registration), would be 30% of the Conference pre- registration fee, rounded up to the nearest $5
WSC 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016
2013: Ron Abramovich reported, in retrospect, fees for 2013 conference at Jackson, Wyoming, were too
low, thus income didn’t cover expenses. Still in reviewing end of conference comments, reviews were positive.
2014: Randy Julander reported that the Strater Hotel has been great to work with. WSC basically filled the Hotel. There is a wedding party to work around on Wednesday. Conference will be held in the attached Historic Henry Strater Theater, with posters clipped to curtains and in the bar area. Vendors will be in the Oak room, which is also where the breaks will also be. Vendors have contributed prizes for banquet. 2 vans have been secured for the field trip. Overflow, mostly conference members will utilize the McGurk vehicle. Many of the students will be providing their own transportation.
2015: Gary Freeman and Bruce McGurk reported, although the Mammoth Lakes area of California would be an outstanding location for the next meeting, expenses would be high and area is hard to access. Meeting will be held at the Gold Miners Inn, A Holiday Inn Property, in Grass Valley, California, about 45 minutes from Sacramento. Rates will meet the Federal Per Diem. The field trip will be visits to historic gold mining activities in the area. The meeting will be April 19-23 2015.
2016: Jolyne Lea reported, meeting location for the 2016 Conference will most likely either Spokane or Seattle, with Seattle being the most likely choice. At this time Steven Fassnacht joined the meeting via telephone from CSU. He is also a member of the Eastern Snow Conference, and brought up that the ESC/WSC are past due for another join meeting. ESC is scheduled to meet in Colorado in 2016, and in New Hampshire in 2018, which will be their 75the anniversary. Was agreed to look into possibility of having a joint meeting 2016. North Pacific will discuss with Fassnacht and ESC. Still may be Seattle, as ESC is already traveling to Colorado in 2016. Fassnacht will bring up the discussion at this year’s ESC meeting. Meeting might have to be moved to May to accommodate a joint meeting.
Documents It was agreed that going all digital for the Proceedings will be inevitable, but with current costs and demand
for the Proceedings from the book resellers, we will continue to print the Proceedings. So far this year; there has been $650 in pre-sales of the Proceedings to book resellers. Cost to print and mail proceedings is about $19 per copy as long as USFS continues to help with mailing. McGurk reported the ongoing success of getting historic Proceedings on-line and searchable.
Wilderness Access Committee No Wilderness Committee Report for this year.
Awards Jolyne Lea reported she will be working with the membership to develop a listing of Life Time Members,
She and Randy Julander will review the various WSC awards and incorporate into the by-laws to reflect the most current awards granted by the WSC.
New Business
. There was discussion about the next General Chair and the General Chair Elect. Gary Freeman had been
nominated to be the next General Chair. He was unanimously approved . North Pacific is to nominate the
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next General Chair Elect. Jolyne Lea nominated Scott Pattee to be the next General Chair Elect. His nomination was also unanimously approved by the Executive Membership. Each of the Division Chairs are to review their executive members. New members need to be distributed to the General Chair and Secretary, so a new letterhead can be developed.
Randy Julander has incorporated recommendations by the WSC Executive Committee on revisions to the WSC by-laws to reflect the modern operations of the WSC. Most notably, he suggests changes to how the WSC handles quorums and elections, officer terms, and awards. Julander will send to the Executive Committee the current revised By-laws. Vote to approve will be next year.
Valerie LaPlante, who works for the ARS but is located on the campus NMSU in Las Cruces, New Mexico has been handling the web updates for the WSC Web Page. Support has been outstanding. It was moved and seconded to provide Valerie with a WSC Snowflake pin and thank you card in appreciation of her continued web support.
Brandon Moore reported that the on-line abstract submission for WSC 2014 worked well. There were a few minor tune ups needed, but overall the process worked well from both the WSC side and the Authors. Moore also reported on the WEB participant survey from 2013. Only 32 percent of those attending completed the survey, but input from those who took the survey were mostly positive. Following the example from the 2013 Conference, the oral presentations will again be recorded for eventual posting to You Tube style forum. Moore and McGurk will work on the recording.
Peter Palmer has volunteered to continue to maintain the compiled WSC email mailing list into the near future. He will coordinate activities with the General Chair and the Secretary/Treasurer. The master WSC email list has about 500 addresses including 30 plus vendors.
Scott Pattee reported that response to the WSC’s social media (Facebook, Twitter, etc) outreach continues to be minor. There are about 20 Facebook and Twitter followers and about 60 on LinkedIn.
It was moved and seconded that those taking the field trip this year and who were not traveling in the chartered vans, would sign a liability wavier.
There was a discussion on the viability of the spouse’s tour. Shall it stay as a function of the meeting, or should it be discontinued? The membership agreed to keep the spouse tour as a part of the annual meeting. It is still relatively in-expensive to maintain.
Palmer expressed his thanks to the Executive Committee for their efforts and assistance to the General Chair for the past 2 years. Gary Freeman will become the General Chair during the banquet on Wednesday evening.
The 2014 Executive Meeting adjourned at 1715. Respectfully Submitted, Jon Lea Secretary/Treasurer, Western Snow Conference April 14, 2014
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82nd Annual Western Snow Conference Business Meeting Durango, Colorado, USA April 16, 2014
Approximately 40 Western Snow Conference members and conference attendees were in attendance. General Chair Peter Palmer called the meeting to order at 1615. Minutes of the 2014 Business Meeting General Chair Report
Peter Palmer welcomed the members to the Business Meeting. The vendors were recognized and thanked for their contributions to the 2014 Conference. The students, who attended the 82 annual meeting of the Western Snow Conference, were also recognized by Peter. A brief summary presentation of the 2013 meeting in Jackson, Wyoming was made by Ron Abramovich. Randy Julander presented a summary of the events which had happed for the 2014 meeting in Durango, and thanked the authors for the outstanding oral presentations. An announcement was made for anyone still wanting to attend the banquet buffet, to see the treasurer, spaces are still available. Bruce McGurk announced that the 2015 meeting will be at the Gold Miners Hotel in Grass Valley, California. All members are encouraged to attend. Jolyne Lea announced that the 2016 meeting may be held in Washington, most likely in Seattle. The Eastern Snow Conference has proposed a joint meeting in 2016, possibly in Colorado, although Seattle would not be out of the questions. This proposal is under consideration and negations with the Eastern Snow Conference are under way to develop this proposal.
Treasurer’s Report
The transfer of the Secretary/Treasurer’s duties has been completed from Randall Osterhuber to Jon Lea. All funds have been transferred to the new account in Brush Prairie, Washington and a new credit card has been issued. After paying all expenses from the 2013 meeting, including the printing and mailing of the Proceedings, the treasury has a positive balance. The 2014 Non-Profit and 2013 Tax forms have been filed. Initial indications are that the 2014 Durango meeting will add to the treasury funds.
Old Business/New Business
Bruce McGurk discussed and demonstrated the ongoing project to get all historic WSC Proceedings on-line and searchable by date, author, title, subject, etc. The project is still on-going. Valerie LaPlante of the ARS, which is located at New Mexico State University, was recognized for her continued support to the Western Snow Conference as the conference webmaster.
The location (Grass Valley, California) of the 2015 WSC meeting was again announced and all are urged to attend, especially the large student contention present.
Scott Pattee mentioned our presence on social media (Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin), and encouraged the membership to follow and submit items.
Brandon Moore discussed and demonstrated the post-conference survey and counseled all to participate. Bruce McGurk presented instructions for tomorrow’s field trip to Silverton. The New General Chair and the General Chair Elect will be announced at tonight’s Banquet. The Awards committee will meet immediately following the business meeting
Meeting adjourned at 1640. Respectfully Submitted, Jon Lea Secretary/Treasurer, Western Snow Conference April 26, 2014
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Attendees of the 82nd Annual Meeting of the Western Snow Conference
Durango, Colorado April 14-17, 2014
NAME AFFILIATION EMAIL
1 Abramovich Ron USDA - NRCS [email protected] 2 Alserda Larry Salt Lake City Corp. [email protected] 3 Bair Ned CRREL/UCSB [email protected] 4 Baker Emily University of Colorado / INSTAAR [email protected] 5 Barnhart Theodore University of Colorado / INSTAAR [email protected] 6 Barry Roger NSIDC [email protected] 7 Bean Alycia University of Idaho [email protected]
8 Bellingham Keith Stevens Water Monitoring [email protected]
9 Bender Stacie National Weather Service [email protected] 10 Biduk Steve Geo Scientific Ltd. [email protected] 11 Brandes Henry University of Colorado [email protected]
12 Brewer Tim Idaho Power Company [email protected] 13 Brylawski James GEONOR, Inc. [email protected] 14 Campbell Scott Government of Alberta [email protected] 15 Carter Roger Universiy of Colorado [email protected]
16 Clayton Jordan USDA - NRCS [email protected]
17 Combe Steve Electronic Data Solutions elecdata.elecdata.com 18 Cushing Melissa University of Colorado [email protected]
20 Deems Jeffery University of Colorado [email protected]
21 Didricksen Kate US Bureau of Reclamation (Ret) [email protected] 22 Elias Emile USDA-ARS-Jornada [email protected]
23 Fassnacht Steven Colorado State University [email protected] 24 Freeman Gary Pacific Gas & Electric Company [email protected] 25 Hall-McKim Eileen University of Colorado [email protected]
26 Harper Al CEO Silverton Durango NG Railroad [email protected]
27 Harrison Brent UC Merced [email protected] 28 Hedrick Andrew Boise State / USDA-ARS [email protected] 29 Heggli Anne Hydrological Services America [email protected] 30 Henn Brian University of Washington [email protected]
31 Hill Alice INSTAAR, CU-Boulder [email protected] 32 Julander Randy NRCS Snow Survey [email protected] 33 Kaufmann Matthias Hydrological Services America [email protected]
34 Kayastha Rijan Kathmandu University [email protected] 35 Khan Alia INSTAAR [email protected] 36 Kunkel Mel Idaho Power Co [email protected] 37 Landry Chris CSAS [email protected]
38 Lea Jolyne USDA NRCS NWCC [email protected] 39 Lea Jon WSC [email protected] 40 Leaf Charles Platt River Hydrologic [email protected]
41 Leavesley George Colorado State University [email protected]
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42 Lute Abby University of Idaho [email protected] 43 Matthews Tom Montana State University [email protected]
44 McGurk Bruce McGurk Hydrologic [email protected] 45 Meyer Bill USDA NASS Mountain Region [email protected] 46 Molotch Noah University of Colorado [email protected]
47 Moore Brandon University of Idaho [email protected] 48 Neff Doug Campbell Scientific [email protected]
49 Nichols Lisa University of Idaho [email protected] 50 O'Donnell Sean University of Colorado [email protected]
51 Ohara Noriaki University of Wyoming [email protected] 52 Organ Jeffery Ecographic Analysis LLC [email protected]
53 Osterhuber Randall UCB Snow Laboratory [email protected] 54 Painter Tom CalTech Jet Propulsion Lab [email protected]
55 Palmer Peter General Chair [email protected] 56 Pattee Scott USDA-NRCS [email protected] 57 Patterson Glenn Colorado State University [email protected] 58 Paulk Eric In-Situ Inc [email protected]
59 Raleigh Mark NCAR [email protected] 60 Rango Albert USDA-ARS-Jornada [email protected] 61 Richards Kevin PG&E [email protected] 62 Roos Maurice CA Dept. of Water Resources mroos.water.ca.gov 63 Schneider Dominik U Colorado at Boulder/INSTAAR [email protected] 64 Shuster Jessica University of Colorado [email protected]
65 Simonson Sara Colorado State University [email protected]
66 Stamper Brooke University of Colorado [email protected]
67 Steele Caiti NMSU [email protected]
68 Sutcliffe Kent NRCS Snow Survey [email protected] 69 Traynham Lee Bureau of Reclamation [email protected] 70 Von Glinski Gerd
71 Walter James Salt River Project [email protected] 72 Welz Jason Montana State University [email protected]
73 White Dick Mayor of Durango [email protected]
74 Williams Mark University of Colorado [email protected] 75 Wilson Alāna University of Colorado Boulder [email protected] 76 Yilmaz Bunyamin University of Colorado [email protected]
77 Winegar Weston Sutron Corporation [email protected] 78 Zukiewicz Lucas USDA-NRCS-Snow Surveys [email protected]
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