write a one sentence overview on what we will learn today based on this picture
TRANSCRIPT
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Write a one sentence overview on what we will learn today based on this picture.
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Climate Change:Fitting the pieces together
Atmosphere
Ocean
Polar Ice
Human/natural influence
Ecosystem
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Present day observations
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Change in Temp
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Past Data: How do we know?Data Collection!
Tree ring data Ice Core
Fossil Evidence Patterns and chemical comp in coral skeletons
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Hadley Centre, 2003
Surface, balloon, & satellite temperatures agree
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Temperature increases are nonuniform: higher mid-continent, highest of all in far North. (These are observations, not modeling results.)
J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006)
2001-2005 mean ∆Tavg above 1951-80 base, °C
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Evaporation & precipitation are increasing
NCDC, 2000
Effect is not uniform; most places getting wetter, some getting drier.
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GLACIERS ARE MELTING
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Muir Glacier, Alaska, 1941-2004
NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center.
August 1941 August 2004
Coastal glaciers are retreating
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The most startling evidence yet…
The melting of the Arctic
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MELTING OF THE ARCTIC.
New predictions
Satellite observationsMean IPCC predictionMost likely change
(melt)IPCC range
Actual observed melting
it has melted nearly 80 YEARS ahead of when
scientists predicted
YEAR
% c
han
ge in
ice
cover
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WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE EXTREME
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MAJOR FLOODS PER DECADE
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Australia fires spark calls for CLIMATE
ACTION“ ”- Washington Post, March 1, 2006
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The trend has been upward everywhere.
Wildfires by continent & decade from 1950
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Westerling et al., SCIENCE, 18 August 2006
Correlation of wildfire increases with temperature is clear
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Running, Science, 18 August 2006
This works in part through soil moisture
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Australia suffers worst drought in
1,000 years “ ”
- Guardian UK, Nov 7, 2008
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SEA LEVELS ARE RISING
Three Year Average
Satellite Altimetry
Year
Sea L
evel C
han
ge (c
m)
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1993-2003 ≈ 35 mm = 3.5 mm/yr; compare 1910-1990 = 1.5±0.5 mm/yr.
Sea-level is risingmm
ACIA, 2004
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Further evidence of changing climateObservations Show…
Evaporation & rainfall are increasing;
Coastal glaciers are retreating;
Mountain glaciers are disappearing;
Permafrost is thawing;
Sea ice is shrinking;
Greenland is melting;
Sea level is rising;
Species are moving.
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Why should we care?
Temp expected to increase by 2-13o F by 2100
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Oceans absorb more CO2
Some expected changes… Warmer temps mean mosquitoes, ticks and rodents expand their range
Less snow—people who depend on snow-fed reservoirs for water
5-20% inc. in crop yield, but more prone to failure with increase temp and decrease in precipitation
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OCEANS ARE ACIDIFYING
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FORESTS ARE THREATENED
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Coral reefs are bleaching
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threatens the survival of
SMALL ISLANDS
Already, the president of the Maldives has created an investment fund from tourism earnings so the nation can buy a new homeland in Sri Lanka and India, for its citizens in case of massive flooding.
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Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet
•2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles•3 ft: Would inundate Miami•Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies•Half of the world’s population lives along coasts
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What changes climate?
Changes in:Sun’s outputEarth’s orbitDrifting continentsVolcanic eruptionsGreenhouse gases
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Earth’s Atmosphere
CO2 is found in troposphere.
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THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
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“Greenhouse effect” Increasing greenhouse gases trap more heat
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Greenhouse gases
Nitrous oxide
Water
Carbon dioxideMethane
Sulfur hexafluoride
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Atmospheric CO2 Levels
http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators
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CO2 CONCENTRATIONS ARE OFF THE CHARTS
CO2 in PPM
TEMPERATURE
Years
Part
s p
er
Million
C
O2
TODAY: 387ppm
550ppm? More?
EARLY 1900S
LAST ICE AGE
Where we’ll be mid-century if we keep this up
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390ppm CO2
today:
Raising by 2ppm/year
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The Industrial Revolution changed our energy consumption
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Combustion Reactions produce CO2
Combustion Reaction:CH4 + O2 CO2 + H2O
(Fossil fuel)
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CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE
WE’RE HERE: 387
WE NEED TO BE HERE: 350
PA
RTS
PER
MIL
LIO
N C
O2
YEAR
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?HOW DO WE GET TO
Can we fix it? Yes we
can!!
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AND IMPLEMENTING AND IMPLEMENTING
A A THOUSAND THOUSAND
DIFFERENT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONSSOLUTIONS
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IT MEANS PLANTING TREESINSTEAD OF CLEAR-CUTTING
RAINFORESTS
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IT MEANS PUTTING UP WIND TURBINESINSTEAD OF COAL PLANTS
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PA
RTS
PER
MIL
LIO
N C
O2
YEAR
Phase-out of coal by 2030
Improved forestry and soil
Reduced oil/gas use
GETTING TO 350
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Spread the word…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ