worldwide market for leds - strategies-u.com file©strategies unlimited 2012 worldwide market for...

©Strategies Unlimited 2012

Worldwide Market for LEDs

Market Review and Forecast 2012

Thirteenth Edition

July 2012

Strategies Unlimited 201 San Antonio Circle, Suite 225 Mountain View, California 94040

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Introduction and Summary 1

1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Executive Overview 2

Suppliers Summary 6 Market Forecast 9 Material Summary 13

2. Display Backlights for TVs and Monitors 18

2.1 Disiplay Backlights for TV and Monitor 18 2.2 Display Backlight for Led TV 20

Market by Geography 23 Technology 23 Market Factors 27 Summary for TV 30

2.3 LED Monitor Display Backlight 33 Market Overview 33 Technology 34 Summary for Monitor & AIO PC 34

2.4 Video Wall / Commercial display 37 2.5 Material Summary 38

3. Automotive Lighting 40

3.1 Introduction 40 2011 Review 40

3.2 Market Trends 44 Headlamps Take Off in 2013 44 China Market 44 Green Movement 44 Styling 45 Electronic Design 45 (New) Functionalities 45 LEDs as Options 45 Adoption Rates 46

3.3 Automotive Exterior Lighting 47 Market Structure 47 Regulations 47 CHMSLs 48 Rear Lighting 50 Front Turn Signal 54 Side-Mirror Mounted Turn Signal Lamp 54 Back Up Lamps 56 License Plate Lamps 56 Front Position Lamps 57

Headlamps 57 DRL (Daytime Running Lights) 62 Truck, Bus, and Emergency Vehicle 65 Two-Wheel Vehicles 67 Others 69 Aftermarket 69 Summary 69

3.4 Automotive Interior Lighting 74


TABLE OF CONTENTS

(Continued)

Ambient Lighting, Reading and Dome Lights 74 Instrumenet Panel 76

3.5 Inside Displays 78 Others 79 Summary 79

4. Mobile Appliances 83

4.1 Mobile Phones 84 Market Overview 84 Camera Flash in Phones 86 Display 88 Keypad 92 Others 93 Summary 93

4.2 Mobile Computing 97 Portable Computers 97

4.3 Other Mobile Appliances 104 Summary Mobile Appliances 104

5. Signs 108

5.1 Full/Multi/Single Color Signs 109 Market Overview 109 Full-Color Signs 113 Single/Multi Color Signs 113 Summary for Full/Single/Multi Color Signs 115

5.2 Channel Letters and Contours 117 Market Factors 118

5.3 Others 120 Sign Box 120 Tunnel Advertising System 121

5.4 Summary 123

6. Lighting 125

6.1 Market Review 125 Solid State Lighting Market 125

6.2 Market Factors 136 Banning of the Bulb 136 Technological developments outside the immediate LED package will lower the total

system cost and speed adooption 138 Customer Education and Quality 138 Standards 138 Difficulties in Integrating the LED Industry and Lighting Industry 139 Changing the Lighting Paradigm 139

6.3 Advantages of Solid State Lighting 140 Saturated Colors and Color-Changing 140 Long Life and Improved Maintenance 140 High Efficiency and Low Life Cycle Cost 140 Flexible and Compact Design 140 DC Operation 140


TABLE OF CONTENTS

(Continued)

Special and Rugged Environments: Portable Lighting, Low Temperature, Low Heat, No UV 141

6.4 Luminaires 142 Luminaire’s Many Segments 142 Market Summary 143

6.5 Replacement Lamps 150 A-Lamps 150 R and PAR Lamps 151 MR16 Lamps 151 Candelabras and Other Decorative Lamps 151 Linear Fluorescent Tube Replacements 152

6.5 Summary of Materials & Package Types 153 7. Other Applications 160

7.1 Overview 160 7.2 Signals 161

Market Overview 161 7.3 Projectors 163

Market Segments 163 Markets 164

7.4 Gaming 166 7.5 Horticulture/Fishing/Agriculture 167

Agricultural 167 Fruit Preservation 168 Fishing 168 Livestock Breeding 170

7.6 Miscellaneous 171 7.7 Summary of “Others” Category 174

8. Supplier Analysis 176

8.1 Japan 180 8.2 Korea 183 8.3 US/Europe 186 8.4 Taiwan and Southeast Asia 189 8.5 China 191

APPENDIX A – Product Definitions A1 APPENDIX B – Exchange Rates B1 APPENDIX C – Method of Analysis C1


LIST OF FIGURES

1.1 LED Market Growth by Application 2010-2011 2 1.2 Sample ASP Declilne, 2010–2011 3 1.3 2011 LED Revenue from Solid State Lighting (US $M) 3 1.4 LED TVs by Backlight Technology 4 1.5 Mobile Appliance evenue US $ (M) 2011 4 1.6 2011 Automotive Exterior Revenue US $ (M) 5 1.7 2011 LED Market by Application 6 1.8 2011 Revenue by Geography 7 1.9 2010–2011 Revenue Growth Rate US $-Based vs. Original Currency-Based Calculation 7 1.10A LED Market by Revenue 2010–2016 9 1.10B LED Market by Revenue (Line) 2010–2016 10 1.11 LED Units by Application 2010–2016 11 1.12 Units by Application (Except Signs & Others) 2010–2016 11 1.13 LED Market Unit and Revenue CAGR by Application 2011-2016 12 1.14 2011 Revenue by Material 13 1.15 2011 Units by Material 13 1.16 Worldwide LED InGaAIP and RGB Units (M) 2010–2016 14 1.17 Worldwide LED InGaN Units (M) 2010–2016 14 1.18 Worldwide LED Market by Revenue (US $ M) 2010–2016 15 1.19 LED Market Unit and Revenue CAGR by Material 2011–2016 16 2.1 Large Display Revenue US $ (M) 2010–2016 18 2.2 LED Penetration Rate of LCD TVs by Size 2011 20 2.3 LED TVs by Size (M) 2011 21 2.4 CCFL and LED Backlights Color Gamut 22 2.5 Power Consumption of Plasma TVs, LCD TVs with CCF Backlighlts, and LCD TVs with LED Backlights 22 2.6 Direct Backlit with Local Dimming 24 2.7 Edge-Lit without Local Dimming 24 2.8 Edge-Lit with Local Dimming 24 2.9 Example of Direct Backlit vs. Low Cost Direct Backlit 25 2.10 Use of Secondary Lens in Low Cost Direct Technologyo 26 2.11 Samsung UA32EH4500M 32” Series, 4 LED TV Using Low Cost Direct Backlit Technology

26 2.12 Passive 3D Glasses 27 2.13 LED TVs by Backlight Technology 28 2.14 Samsung UN40C7000 29 2.15 LG LM8600 with 5MM Bezels 29 2.16 TV Units (M) vs. LED Revenue US $ (M) by Technology 2010–2016 31 2.17 TV Revenue by LED Package US $ (M) 2010-16 31 2.18 LED Monitor & AIO PC Units (M) 2010-16 33 2.19 Apple iMac 34 2.20 Samsung SA 950 34 2.21 Monitor Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 35 2.22 Monitor Revenue Growth US $(M) by Category (2010-2016) 36 2.23 Sharp 90” LCD Display 37 2.24 Ultra High Brightness Video Screen for Video Wall Applications 37 2.25 Video WAll 37 2.26 Summary Display by Material and Package Type 2010–2016 38 2.27 Summary Display Revenue by Material and Package Type (US $M) 2010–2016 38 3.1 Automotive Revenue US $( M) 2010-2016 40 3.2 Worldwide Passenger Car Productin (M) 2010–2016 41 3.3 2011 Automotive Exterior Lighting Revenue US $ (M) 42 3.4 2011 Automotive Interior Lighting Revenue 43


LIST OF FIGURES

(Continued) 3.5 Signature Styling 45 3.6 CHMSL Revenue US $(M) 2010-15 48 3.7 CHMSL with 40 LED 49 3.8 Third-Party Replacement CHMSL with 12 LED 49 3.9 LED Rear Lamps on a 2011 BMW 730d 50 3.10 LED Rear Lamps on 2010 VW Gulf 50 3.11 2013 Ford Taurus Rear Turn Signal (PC Amber) 50 3.12 2011 Dodge Charger 50 3.13 Braking Distance with LED Rear Lamps 51 3.14 Brake Force Display 51 3.15 Use of Light Lens to Create Smooth vs. Pixilated Look in RCL 52 3.16 Rear Lamp Revenue US $(M) 2010–2016 53 3.17 Rear Combination Lamps with LED Turning Signals for Range Rover 53 3.18 LED Front Turn Signal (PC Amber) on a Mercedes M-Class 54 3.19 Two Types of Side-Mirror-Mounted Turn Signal Repeaters 54 3.20 Mirror Mounted Side Turn Signal Revenue US $ (M) 2010–201615 55 3.21 LED License Plate Lights on a Honda Civic 56 3.22 FAW WeiZhi FPL 57 3.23 Eye Shape Headlamp 57 3.24 The History of LED Headlamp Development 58 3.25 OSRAM OSTAR Headlamp (Used n the Audi A8) 58 3.26 Effect of AFS 59 3.27 Nissan Leaf with 2 LED per Headlamp 59 3.28 Luxeon Altilon are used in Headlamps 59 3.29 Headlamps Revenue US $(M) 2010–2016 60 3.30 Case Study: Mercedes CLS Front Lights 61 3.31 The Many Faces of DRL 62 3.32 Opel DRL with Light String 62 3.33 2012 Audi A1 DRL 63 3.34 DRL Revenue US $ (M) 2010–2016 63 3.35 Truck Lights 65 3.36 Electric Bus 65 3.37 Emergency Vehicle Light Bars 66 3.38 British Police Car 66 3.39 Trucks, Buses and and Warning Signals Revenue US $(M)New and After Market 2010-16 67 3.40 Electric Recumbent Bike 67 3.41 Electric Pocket (mini) Bike 67 3.42 2011 Kawasaki ZX-10R 68 3.43 2 Wheelers Revenue US $ (M) 2010–2016 68 3.44 Light Car Sharing Concept Car 69 3.45 Automotive Exerior Revenue by Category 2010–2016 70 3.46 Automotive Exterior Revenue by Category 2010–2016 70 3.47 Automotive Exterior Lighting Units (M) by Material 2010–2016 71 3.48 Automotive Exterior Lighting Revenue by Material US $(M) 2010–2016 72 3.49 Ford Edge; Choosing an Ambient Color 74 3.50 Ambient Light: Citroen C4 Picasso (Door Trim with Light guide) 74 3.51 Honda Box Concept Car 74 3.52 Interior Reading Lamp with Incidential Light (Porsche Panamera) 74 3.53 Ambient, Dome, and Reading Light Revenue US $ (M) 2010-2016 75 3.54 Backlit Curved Instrument Panel 76 3.55 Instrument Panel Revenue US $ (M) 2010–2016 76 3.56 2011 Subaru Outback Mirror Back-Up Camera 78 3.57 Smart ForVisiono Concept 79


LIST OF FIGURES

(Continued) 3.58 Automotive Interior Lighting Revenue by Category 2010–2019 80 3.59 Automotive Interior Lighting by Material (Units) 2010–2016 81 3.60 Automotive Interior Lighting by Material (Revenue) 2010–2016 82 4.1 2011 Mobile Appliance Revenue US $(M) 83 4.2 Worldwide Mobile Phones Units (M) 2010–2016 84 4.3 Mobile Phone Revenue (US $M) 2011 85 4.4 iPhone4 Clone 86 4.5 Total Flash Revenue & Units 2010–2016 87 4.6 Smart Phone LED Display Revenue and Smart Phone Units 2010–2016 89 4.7 Smart Phone Units by Display Type 2010–2016 90 4.8 Feature Phone Display LED Revenue and Feature Pone Units 2010–2016 91 4.9 Total Keypad Revenue (US $M) 2010–2016 92 4.10 Mobile Phone Revenue US $(M) 2010–2016 93 4.11 Summary Mobile Phone Revenue Growth by Category 2010–2016 94 4.12 Mobile Phone Units by Material and Package Type 2010–2016 95 4.13 Mobile Phone Revenue by Matgerial and Package Type 2010–2016 95 4.14 Samsung Notebook 9 97 4.15 Portable Computers Revenue 2010–2016 98 4.16 Tablet LED Revenue and Tablet Units 2010–2016 99 4.17 Mobile Computing Revenue 2010-2016 101 4.18 Mobile Computing Units by Material and Package Type 2010–2016 102 4.19 Mobile Computing Revenue by Material and Package Type 2010–2016 102 4.20 Mobile Revenue by Category 2010–2016 104 4.21 MobileAppliances Revenue 2010–2016 105 4.22 Mobile Appliance Revenue by Material and Package Type 106 4.23 Mobile Appliance Units by Material and Package Type 106 5.1 Sign Revenue US $(M) 2010–2016 108 5.2 Largest Sign in the World at Shanghai Expo 109 5.3 Behind-the-scenes construction of the sign 109 5.4 Sign Market by Production Base (US $M) 2010–2016 109 5.5 Made in China Signs by Application (US $M) 2011 110 5.6 Chinese-Made Signs 111 5.7 LED Revenue by Sign Type (US $M) 2010-2016 111 5.8 Major LED Suppliers to the Chinese Sign Industry 112 5.9 A completed sign is going through its “image burn-in” for color and brightness 113 5.10 P10 Outdoor City Poster 113 5.11 LED Billboard 113 5.12 2012 CCTV New Year’s Event Irregular Matrix LED Display Stage 114 5.13 Tri-color Sign 114 5.14 Single-color sighn commonly seen on the streets of China 114 5.15 Chinese made LED ASP Analysis (US $) 2010–2016 114 5.16 Highway Sign 115 5.17 Full/Multi/Single Color SignRevenue (US $M) & Units (M) by Material 2010–2016 116 5.18 Channel Letter 117 5.19 Reverse Lit LED Channel Letter 117 5.20 Front Lit LED Channel Letter 117 5.21 LED Light Modules for Channel Letters 117 5.22 TeraContour, a flexible LED light engine and a rigid light guide 118 5.23 Color-Changing Channel Letters 118 5.24 Channel Letters Units and Revenues 2010–2016 119 5.25 LED Modules for Side-lit Sign Box 120 5.26 LED Modules for Direct-lit Sign Box 120


LIST OF FIGURES

(Continued) 5.27 Inside and Outside a Sign Box at SloanLED Booth ISA Las Vegas 2011 120 5.28 Subway Tunnel Advertising System using Light Box 121 5.29 Subway Tunnel Advertising System using Light Bars 122 5.30 Total Sign Revenue by Material 2010–2016 123 5.31 Total Sign Units by Material 2010–2016 124 6.1 Solid-State Lighting 2011 125 6.2 Solid-State Lighting Market Revenue 126 6.3 Solid-State Lighting Market 2010–2016 127 6.4 Luminaire vs. Replacement Lamp 2010–2016 129 6.5 Replacement Lamps by Revenue 2011 130 6.6 Replacement Lamps by Region 2011 131 6.7 2011 LED Revenue from Solid-State Lighting 132 6.8 LED Revenue by Application 2010–2016 133 6.9 ASP Decline 2010–2011 134 6.10 White LED Technology and Cost, Cost per Kilolulmen 134 6.11 Evolution of White Led Luminous Efficacy 135 6.12 Timetable for Phasing Out Standard Incandescent Bulbs 136 6.13 U.S. Lighting Lumen Output by Sector and Type of Light Source 137 6.14 U.S. Lighting Energy Use by Sector and Type of Light Source 137 6.15 RGB Linear Luminaire 143 6.16 Harbor Bridge Lighting Project in Corpus Christi, Texas 144 6.17 Sony HVL LBP 144 6.18 Components of Recessed Downlights 146 6.19 Refrigerated Freezer Case 146 6.20 LED Display Case Lighting Fixture 147 6.21 EcoSmart LED Downlight 147 6.22 Streetlight 148 6.23 d.light S250, Solar Light and Mobile Charger 148 6.24 Tactical Flashlight 149 6.25 Ceiling/suspense Mount Escape Route Sign Europe 149 6.26A Different Implementations of A-Lamp (210-600 lm) 150 6.26B Different Implementations of A-Lamp (210-600 lm) 150 6.27 LED MR16 151 6.28 LED Candelabra 151 6.29 NextLamp LED-Based T-12 Replacement 152 6.30 SSL InGaAIP and RGB Units 2011 154 6.31 Solid-state Lighting InGaAIP and RGB Multichip Units 2010–2016 154 6.32 SSL InGaAIP and RGB Revenue 2011 155 6.33 Solid-State Lighting InGaAIP and RGB Multichip Revenue 2010–2016 156 6.34 SSL InGaN Units 2011 157 6.35 Solid-State Lighting InGaN Units 2010–2016 157 6.36 SSL InGaN Revenue 2011 158 6.37 Solid-State Lighting InGaN Revenue 2010–2016 159 7.1 Constructiono of an LED Traffice Signal with 1 LED 161 7.2 Alustar Traffic Signals 161 7.3 Example of an Hybrid Projector Design 163 7.4 A Typical Pico Projector Design 164 7.5 Smart Phone with Built-in Projector (Samsung Galaxy Beam) 164 7.6 Low cost phone with built-in projector (Popcorn M9000) 165 7.7 Camcorder with Built-in Projector 165 7.8 Camera with Built-in Projector 165 7.9 Pachinko Machine 166


LIST OF FIGURES

(Continued) 7.10 Las Vegas Slot Machines 166 7.11 Opto Taiwan 2012 Agriculture Showcase 167 7.12 Light Wavelength vs. Plant Growth 167 7.13 Effect of Different Wavelengths on Growth Rate of Butterfly Orchid Seeds 168 7.14 “Wash Your Fruit with (Blue) Light” 168 7.15 LED Fishing Lamps 169 7.16 Salmon Growth Chart 169 7.17 LED-Based Teeth Whitening Units (Professional and Portable) 171 7.18 LED Cube Box Display & Decoration 171 7.19 LED Table 171 7.20 Glow in the Dark Outdoor Furniture 172 7.21 LED Embedded Yarn Technology and Sample Jacket 172 7.22 LED Dental Light 173 7.23 LED Beauty Wands 173 7.24 Others Category Units 2010–2016 174 7.25 Total Revenue for Others Category 2010–2016 175 8.1 2011 Revenue by Geography 178 8.2 2010–2011 Revenue Growth Rate us $-Based vs. Original Currency-Based Calculation 179 8.3 Japanese Revenue by Application 2011 180 8.4 Korean Revenue by Application 2011 184 8.5 Investment Relationship among Taiwanese Chip Makers and Packaging Houses 189


LIST OF TABLES

1.1 Ranking of Worldwide LED companies by LED Revenue 8 1.2 Worldwide LED Revenue by Application 10 1.3 LED Markets by Units 2010–2016 12 1.4 Worldwide LED Markets by Material Units 201–2016 15 1.5 Worldwide Material (US $M) 16 2.1 Display Backlight Revenue by Type 19 2.2 Number of TVs by Technology 28 2.3 Change in LED Packages Used in LED TVs 2011–2012 30 2.4 TV Revenue by Backlight Technology 30 2.5 LED by Package Type for TVs 32 2.6 Monitors and AIO PCs Units 33 2.7 Summary Revenue of Monitors and AIO PCs 35 2.8 Summary Revenue of Monitors and AIO PCs by Package Type 36 2.9 Total Material Units for Disiplay 38 2.10 Total Material Revenue for Display 39 3.1 Automotive LED Revenue 41 3.2 Worldwide Car Production Numbers (CSM) 42 3.3 2011 Automotive Penetration Rates 46 3.4 CHMSLs 49 3.5 Rear Lamps (Stop/Tail) 52 3.6 Rear Lamps (Turn) 52 3.7 Mirror Mounted Side Turn Signal 55 3.8 Back-Up Lamps 56 3.9 Headlamps 60 3.10 DRLs 64 3.11 e-2Wheelers 69 3.12 Automotive Exterior Lighting Revenue Summary 71 3.13 Automotive Exterior Lighting Units by Material 72 3.14 Automotive Exterior Lighting Revenue by Materials 73 3.15 Ambient, Dome, and Reading Lights 75 3.16 Instrument Panel 77 3.17 In-Dash Console 78 3.18 Automotive Interior Lighting Revenue Summary 80 3.19 Automotive Interior Lighting Units by Material 81 3.20 Automotive Interior Lighting Revenue by Material 82 4.1 Worldwide Mobile Phone Units (M) 85 4.2 Flash 88 4.3 Smart Phones Backlights 89 4.4 Feature Phone Display 91 4.5 Keypads 92 4.6 Mobile Phones Revenue Summary 94 4.7 Summary Mobile Phones by Material and Package 96 4.8 Portable Computers 98 4.9 Tablets 100 4.10 Summary—Mobile Computing 101 4.11 Summary—Mobile Computing by Matearial and Package 103 4.12 Summary—Mobile Appliances 105 4.13 Summary—Mobile Appliances by Material and Package 107


LIST OF TABLES

(Continued) 5.1 Total Sign Market 110 5.2 LED Revenue by Sign Type 111 5.3 Total Sign Revenue 123 5.4 Total Sign Units 124 6.1 Solid-State Lighting Market Revenue 127 6.2 Luminaire Market Segments 128 6.3 LED Revenue in Solid-State Lighting 2010–2016 129 6.4 Replacement Lamp Market by Type 130 6.5 Replacemente Lamp Market by Geographic Region 131 6.6 LED Revenue by Application 133 6.7 Price $/kilollumen for 1W High-Power LEDs with CRI: >75 135 6.8 Luminaire Market Segments 142 6.9 Lighting InGaAIP and RGB Material Analysis Units 155 6.10 Lighting InGaAIP and RGB Material Analysis Revenue 156 6.11 Lighting InGaN Material Analysis Units 158 6.12 Lighting InGaN Material Analysis Revenue 159 7.1 Suggested Lighting Guide for Poultry Production 170 7.2 Total Units for “Others” Category 174 7.3 Total Revenue for “Others” Category 175 8.1 Rankings of Worldwide LED Companies by HB-LED Revenue 176 8.2 Revenue Change by Geography in U.S. and Original Currency 178 8.3 Exchange Rates 179 8.4 Top Japanese Producers 180 8.5 Top Korean Producers 183 8.6 Top U.S. and European Producers 186 8.7 Top Taiwanese Producers 189 8.8 Top Chinee Producers 191 A.1 HB LED Product Segmentation A2 A.2 HB LED Materials and Characteristics A5

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