world’s most promising cotton yield technologies & their potential to raise production
TRANSCRIPT
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World’s Most Promising Cotton Yield Technologies & their Potential to Raise
Production CO
TT
ON
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• agronomy• farmer production education• investment capital• precision application• no-till (with herbicide tolerance)
• genetic improvement• edaphic stress• metabolic efficiency• seed resource reallocation• plant architecture• hybridization
World’s most promising yield technologies
Yield Technologies
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In addition to basic farming expertise, any technology advancement requires adjustments to entire production system.
e.g. Introduction of high priced Bt-cotton seed to eastern China: -lower seeding rates-disease susceptible foreign
variety -yield boost caused K
deficiencies-2° pests no longer controlled
Farmer Production Education
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Investment Capital
Supplemental irrigation raises Water Use Efficiency in rainfed cotton but requires investment in water delivery systems
1 2 3
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500Drip IrrigatedTennessee Rainfed
Fib
er
Yie
ld (
lbs/
acr
e)
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Optimum agronomic management:1970’s farm scale recipe1990’s field scale2000’s soil type scale2010’s 10 m2 scale
Precision Application
0-25 26-50
51-75
76-100
101-125
126-150
151-175
176-200
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
c
bc bc
aab
bc
cd
d
total nitrogen
fiber
yie
ld
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apply inputs as needed
minimize stress and evaporation
preserve rainfall
& soil
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• agronomy• farmer education• investment capital• precision application• no-till (with herbicide tolerance)
• genetic improvement• edaphic stress• metabolic efficiency• seed resource reallocation• plant architecture• hybridization
World’s most promising yield technologies
Yield Technologies
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Highly diverse Gossypium diploids wild plants
Genetic Diversity Lost
4 plants crossed making 2 Gossypium tetraplids
Man domesticated the long fiber mutants
Breeding further narrowed germplasm
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Plants are immobile so evolved to tolerate stress.
DNA tools allow breeding with wild cotton for soil borne stresses:- nematodes- diseases- drought
Genetic Diversity Regained
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Plants are immobile so evolved to tolerate stress.
DNA tools allow breeding with wild cotton for soil borne stress:nematodes,diseases,drought
Sequenced Cotton Genome
In addition to the multiple breeding tools, we could reach back in time to the rapid evolution of the fiber and make it better the 2nd time around.
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We have the tools to breed seed with MORE fiber & oil, LESS protein
Seed Resource Allocation
Fiber Oil Protein0
0.51
1.52
2.53
3.5 FertilizerSugar
lbs
of in
put/
lb o
f pro
duct
FM 958 a.k.a.Sicot 41
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Biotech adopters benefit from all the ancillary benefits of a robust, professional local seed industry PLUS the trait.
Professional Seed Industry
1975
1985
1995
2005
0
500
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China Linear (China)
India Linear (India)
USA Linear (USA)
Brazil Linear (Brazil)
Australia Linear (Australia)
Argentina Linear (Argentina)
Mexico Linear (Mexico)
Colombia Linear (Colombia)
South Africa Linear (South Africa)
1975
1985
1995
2005
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Pakistan Linear (Pakistan)
Uzbekistan Linear (Uzbekistan)
Turkey Linear (Turkey)
Turkminstan Linear (Turkminstan)
Greece Linear (Greece)
Syria Linear (Syria)
Burkina Linear (Burkina)
Tanzania Linear (Tanzania)
Tajikistan Linear (Tajikistan)
Adapted from David Zilberman, U.C. Berkeley
Fib
er Y
ield
(kg
/he
ctar
e)F
iber
Yie
ld (
kg/h
ect
are)
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Adopters
Linear (Adopters)
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• China• India• USA• Africa
& their potential to raise production
Raise Production
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Climate Disruption creates uncertainty as to how well India benefits from yield technology.
Seed has had a huge impact: - Bt-cotton insect control- locally adapted hybrids
Anticipate future seed benefits:- no-till facilitated by glyphosate herbicide tolerance.- higher stand density facilitated by lower cost hybrid seed production and apomixis hybrids
India
1950 1980 20100
1
2
3
ΔCO2 /year
CO
2
PP
M
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Water supply limitations are not solved with drought tolerance. Western China adopting USA production system. Eastern China likely not, maybe no-till with Herbicide Tolerance
China
Nature (2010) 467:43-51
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As the first adopter of USA-centric innovations we will benefit greatly, IF their development is funded.
Supplemental irrigation in the rainbelt is expanding rapidly but West Texas water supply is uncertain.
USA
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Africa
The modal fertilizer rate in Africa is Zero!
Slight improvement in input resources, infrastructure and education would have a dramatic impact on African cotton yields.
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Optimistic that cotton yield gains can satisfy some of the expanding global demand for textile fiber.