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WorldFuture 2010: Sustainable Futures, Strategies, and
TTechnologieswfs conference highlights, boston, July 2010
Dr Nick SchofieldDr Nick SchofieldSKM Lead Futurist; Professional Member World Future
SocietyPresentation to the Academy of Science, Malaysia 28 October 2010Presentation to the Academy of Science, Malaysia 28 October 2010
Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation
• What is the World Future Conference?
• The futurists who’s who• Science & Technology Science & Technology
frontiers and rates of change change
• Technology forecasts• Gl b l i • Global crises • Future global scenarios
Mega Science for National Sustainable Development – Brief
PPurpose:• To prepare and produce a Mega Science Framework document for
National Sustainable Development (2011-2050) to be submitted to the G t th t b d b i t f l t i t Government that can be used as a basis to formulate appropriate policies and strategies towards achieving national sustainable development.
T k 1Task 1:• Assessing and analyzing the global drivers of sustainable
development and the critical role of innovation in national d l t Gl b l d i i l d th ld id development. Global drivers include the worldwide concern over climate change and its impact on sustainability, the shift towards knowledge-based economy when the intangibles dominate, growing power of innovation to sustain competitiveness concern over power of innovation to sustain competitiveness, concern over poverty and the fate of the environment and the millennium development goals
What is the World Future Conference?
Presented annually by the World Future Society2010 theme: Sustainable Futures, Strategies and TechnologiesAn opportunity for individuals and groups in many different fields to An opportunity for individuals and groups in many different fields to examine significant issues and address common problems that will affect our futuresTopics included: technology and science,, resources and the environment,, business and careers, social and cultural trends, governance and communities, learning and education, values and spirituality, health and wellness, futures methodologies75 speakers came from many disciplines and professions, many holding top positions at Fortune 500 companies NASA FBI US Army and the United positions at Fortune 500 companies, NASA, FBI, US Army and the United NationsAttendees from more than 35 countries
Conference good and not so good points
St th W kStrengthsAccess cutting edge of technology
WeaknessesNo formal written papers from the presentations technology
Meet leading scientists, technologists and futurists
from the presentations (only a collection of essays)Few slides made available
What’s on the minds of world leading thinkers
(audios are provided)Parallel sessions restrict opportunity to see all Wide range of futures
Build contacts, networks
opportunity to see all presentations of interestUS bias because most US bias because most futurists in the US and it’s the origin of the WFS
Prominent futuristsProminent futurists
Bill H l l P f E it f S i T h l • Bill Halal Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology, and Innovation at George Washington University. President of TechCast.
• Ray Kurzweil is a 21st century polymath. He is a scientist, inventor, entrepreneur, author, visionary and futurist. Author of The singularity is near and founder of the Singularity University
• Dennis Bushnell is the chief scientist at the NASA Langley Research Center and received numerous honours including the NASA Exceptional Scientific g pAchievement and Outstanding Leadership Medals and Distinguished Research Scientist Awards
1. Rate of Change of Technology
Life Eucaryotic cells, multicellular organisms
Cambrian Explosion (body plans) Reptiles
Class Mammalia
PrimatesSuperfamily Hominoidea
Family Hominidae
Human ancestors walk uprightGenus Homo, Homo Erectus, specialized
stone toolsSpoken languageve
nt (y
ears)
Spoken languageHomo sapiens
Homo sapiens sapiens
Art, early cities
AgricultureWriting, wheel
Ci me to N
ext E
v
City statesPrinting, experimental method
Industrial RevolutionTelephone, electricity, radio
ComputerPersonal Computer
Tim
Time before present (years)Time before present (years)
Source: KurzweilAI
Exponential growth in informationtechnology and paradigms
Exponential Growth of Computing for 110 Years M ' L th fifth t th fi tMoore's Law was the fifth, not the first,
paradigm to bring exponential growth in computingr
Logarithmic Plot
econ
d pe
ron
s pe
r Se
$100
0C
alcu
latio
Year
Source: KurzweilAI
THE PARADIGM SHIFT RATE THE PARADIGM SHIFT RATE
IS NOW DOUBLING ABOUT IS NOW DOUBLING ABOUT
EVERY DECADEEVERY DECADE
Source: Kurzweil AI
Exponential vs Linear GrowthExponential vs Linear Growth
Th i l An ongoing exponential
f The same exponential sequence of S‐curves on a logarithmic plot
sequence made up of a cascade of S‐curves on a linear plotLinear vs Exponential Growth
Exponential growth is soft…gradual, incremental, smooth, ...but ultimately, profoundly transformative
Source: KurzweilAI
Growth in Supercomputer PowerL ith i Pl t
Transistors Per Chip (Intel processors)L ith i Pl t
First ExaflopSupercomputer
(forecast)1.E+171.E+181.E+191.E+201.E+211.E+22
ns per Sec
ond)
Logarithmic Plot
Pentium IIIPentium 4
Itanium 2 Itanium 2 (2003)
Itanium 2 (2004) Xeon MPDual‐Core Itanium 2
Itanium 'Tukwila'
Logarithmic Plot
Num Wind TunNum. Wind Tun. SR2201/1024CP‐PACS/2048
ASCI RedASCI RedASCI WhiteASCI White
Earth SimulatorSX‐8
Blue Gene /L
Blue Gene /L
Blue Gene /LBlue Gene /L
Roadrunner
Pleiades,Blue Waters, or RIKEN (announced)
(forecast)
1.E+111.E+121.E+131.E+141.E+151.E+161.E+17
Flop
s‐point O
peration
8 8
8086
286386
486 DXPentium
Pentium II
tors per chip
VP2600/10SX‐3/44
CM‐5/1024Num. Wind Tun.
1.E+091.E+101.E 11
(Floating
Year
4004 80088080
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Tran
sis
Year
Pentium 4 (3066)Pentium D 830
Core 2 Extreme QX6700
C2E QX9770
Processor Performance (MIPS)
er sec
Dynamic RAM Memory Bits per DollarLogarithmic Plot Logarithmic Plot
8 8286
386486
PentiumPentium II
Pentium IIIPentium 4 (1700)
Pentium 4 (3066)
`
on in
structions p
Bits/Dollar
40048008
8080 8086
MIPS millio
DRAM
Year Year
Source: KurzweilAI
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS)
DOUBLE THEIR POWER DOUBLE THEIR POWER DOUBLE THEIR POWER DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT ABOUT
(PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH)
EVERY YEAREVERY YEAR
Source: KurzweilAI
The exponential growth of computing is a marvelous quantitative example of the exponentially growing returns from an evolutionary process. We can express the exponential growth of computing in terms of 0
its accelerating pace: it took 90 years to achieve the first MIPS per 1000 dollars; now we add 1.2 MIPS per 1000 dollars every hour.
d pe
r $10
00
Logarithmic Plot
per S
econ
dcu
latio
ns p
Cal
Year
Source: KurzweilAI
IT costs fall exponentially too!IT costs fall exponentially too!
Source: KurzweilAI
Doubling (or Halving times)Dynamic RAM Memory “Half Pitch” Feature Size 5.4 years
Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar) 1.5 yearsy y p y
Average Transistor Price 1.6 years
Mi C t T i t C l 1 1 Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle 1.1 years
Total Bits Shipped 1.1 years
Processor Performance in MIPS 1.8 years
Transistors in Intel Microprocessors 2.0 yearsTransistors in Intel Microprocessors 2.0 years
Microprocessor Clock Speed 2.7 years
Source: KurzweilAI
2. Technological forecasting -tomorrow’s technologies
Longitudinal Summary of Forecasts - www.TechCast.org
80 2010: The World Online 2020: High-Tech Arrives 2030: Global Consciousness
Power storag
Body Monitoring
Virtual RealitySmart Phones
Entertainment
Video C f i
Recycling
Intelligent cars
70
75
MarketSize
Artificial Intelligence
Alternative Energy
Electric Cars
Artificial Organs
Telewor
Virtual Reality
Digital Convergence
Broadband
Web 2.0
Conferencing
Hybrid Cars
Space Tourism Climate Control
Biometrics
Green Business
E‐tailing
Wireless
65
rts' C
onfid
ence
Life Extension
Hypersonic
Automated Highways
Cancer Cure
Artificial Intelligence
Desalination
Organic Farming
Smart Robots
Nanotech
Modular Homes
Intelligent Interface
Green Business
Pervasive Networks
E Government
Online Publishing
Intelligent Fuel Cell Cars
AquacultureGlobal Access
Virtual
Optical Compute
Cloud Computing
Smart Grids
60Exp
er
Humans on
HypersonicPlanes
High Speed TrainsChild TraitsGrown Organs
Gene Therapy
Thought Power
BiocomputingEco‐Bikes
Genetic Food
Personal Medicine
Precision Farming
E‐Government
Mass customi ation
Designed Materials
Grid Computing
Compute
Smart Sensor
Telemedicine
Micro‐Machines
50
55
© TechCast, LLC. All Rights ReservedGraph by Elizabeth West
Hydrogen Economy
Moon BaseQuantum Computing
customization
Nuclear Fusion
Small AircraftSynthetic Life
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Most Likely Year to Enter Mainstream
Energy & Environment Information Technology E-Commerce Manufacturing & Robotics Medicine and Biogenetics Transportation Space
Nuclear
Contact
Deep SpaceSummary of Forecast Resultswww TechCast org
2035
off scale
2030
Fusion Introd.
Child Traits
Life Span =100
Men On Mars
HypersonicPlanes
Hi Speed
www.TechCast.orgHydrogen Economy
off scale
2025
Q tSmartR b t
Small Aircraft
Grown Organs
Mars
GeneticTherapy
Hi-SpeedTrains
eam Moon Base
AutomatedSmartG id
Desalinization
Cancer CureAI
2020Alternative
Energy
GMO
Quantum Computing
OrganicFarming Biocomputing
PersonalMedicine
Robots
NanoTech
Artificial Organs
Hybrid Cars
r M
ains
tre
ptio
n le
vel) Micro
Machines
HighwaysGrid
OpticalVirtual
ThoughtPower
Eco-Bikes
Body
TeleWork PowerStorage Electric
Cars
2015
VirtualEducation
Recycling
Precision Farming
Farming Biocomputing
Global Access
Grid
Biometrics
Intelligent On-LinePublishing
Designed Materials
Fuel Cell Cars Introd.
r to
Ent
eras
30%
ado
p
Climate IntelligentCarsTeleMedicine
OpticalComputers
VirtualReality
PervasiveNetworks
Modular Homes
Body Monitoring
Web 3.0
Synthetic Life
Cars
2010
Computing Interface
Cloud Computing
Broadband 50%
Publishing MassCustomization
Space Tourism
kely
Yea
rua
lly d
efin
ed Control CarsTeleMedicine
E-Gov’t.Aquaculture 50%
Entertainment
E-TailingGreen Business
ConvergenceSmart
SensorsWeb 2.0VideoConferencing
2005
Smart Phone
Broadband 50%
Mos
t Lik
(Usu Wireless
Copyright W. Halal 2008 171
2005Energy, & Environment
Information Technology
Manufacturing & Robotics
E-Commerce Medicine &Biogenetics
Transportation Space
Strategic TechnologiesStrategic technologies have wide scientific interest,
big commercial markets, and profound social impacts and benefits.
Intelligent Web Robotics AI Changes the man machine interface inIntelligent Web, Robotics, AI Changes the man-machine interface in profound ways. And soon.
Cancer Cure Could be a watershed in medicine. Bold forecast that is credible, d i th bi t h b kth hand promises other biotech breakthroughs.
Climate Control Crucial technology with global impact. Offers hope.
Alternative Energy The “post-carbon era” likely to start about 2020.gy p y
Quantum Computing The heart of 2nd generation machines.
Power Storage Missing link to electric cars, renewable energy, portable devicesdevices.
Intelligent Interface Speech recognition, virtual assistants, avatars, wall monitors, etc. replace the keyboard and mouse
Synthetic Life Socially problematic but enormous potential for energy, environment, medicine, etc.
Source: TechCast
Strategic breakthroughsStrategic breakthroughs
Source: TechCast
Information technologyInformation technology
Source: TechCast
2010-2015
D i S t h $100 PC W b
The World Goes OnlineDevices: Smart phones, $100 PCs, Web 2.0/3.0, wall monitors/TVs, digital convergence
Infrastructure: Faster BroadBand and wireless, utility/cloud computing, intelligent networks GPS language translation speech networks, GPS, language translation, speech recognition, etc.
E-Commerce E-businesses reaches 30% take-E Commerce E businesses reaches 30% takeoff adoption levels
Global Brain: Half the world joins the jInternet
Next 35 yr Upcycle: About 2015 -2050
Source: TechCast
Artificial Intelligence
$1 B in ’93 $12 B in ’02 $21 B in ’07$1 B in 93, $12 B in 02, $21 B in 07
Models: Cyc, Kizmet, Jabberwocky, Asimo, etc
Speech recognition robots computer games GPS navSpeech recognition, robots, computer games, GPS nav.
IBM’s autonomic computing program
DARPA DOE smart computer researchDARPA, DOE smart computer research
5 robotic vehicles completed DARPA urban competition
IBM simulating the human brain (8 000 neurons)IBM simulating the human brain (8,000 neurons)
Kurzweil: $1000 PC with power of the brain about 2020
TechCast: AI replaces routine mental work (“weak AI”) about 2021TechCast: AI replaces routine mental work ( weak AI ) about 2021
Source: TechCast
Robotics
State-of-the-Art (Sony, Honda, Toyota)
60K vocabulary, speech recognition30 motor joints, walks, runs, stairsLearn faces, surroundingsS it d ti i t id Security guards, receptionists, aides, serving tea, other simple tasks
Coming
Emotional interactions – Kizmet (MIT)( )Improved AI, speech, consciousness?Care givers, servants, warriors, etc.Rodney Brooks (MIT): “Like PCs in ’75”T hC t 30% f h b 2020TechCast – 30% of homes by 2020
Source: TechCast
Intelligent Cars
Annual costs of U.S. congestion - $50 B lost productivity, 40K d th /$150Bdeaths/$150B
Traffic to double by 2020y
Self-driving, GPS navigation, OnStar, cruise control, collision-avoidance electronic tolls connected to driver’s “info cloud ” etcavoidance, electronic tolls, connected to driver s info-cloud, etc.
Infrastructure required
Taiwan: Next $ trillion industry
TechCast - 30% of cars by 2014
Source: TechCast
Creativity machines & imagitronsCreativity machines & imagitrons
Creativity Machines Creativity Machines represent a new kind of neural network paradigm that is capable of generating rather than just
i ti associating pCreates human to trans-human level intelligence in human level intelligence in machinesThis new AI paradigm is This new AI paradigm is vastly more powerful than genetic algorithms
Stephen ThalerSource: Imagination Engines, Inc
Energy and environmentEnergy and environment
Source: Techcast
Alternative Energy
• Geothermal, wind, biomass competitive now
• Clean coal technologies/sequester CO2 in mines
• C t t d l / h t lt i i 2012 14 • Concentrated solar/photovoltaic in 2012-14
• Biggest source is conservation (Lovins)
• Nuclear favored - 440 plants to 500-600 by 2010
• Deregulation/distributed energy sourcesDeregulation/distributed energy sources
• Growth rates of 30-50%/year similar to Moore’s Law• TechCast: From 16 to 30% of energy use by 2020TechCast From 16 to 30% of energy use by 2020
(hydro - 6%, bio - 3 to 6%, nuclear - 6 to 9%, wind - .5 to 3%, solar - .5 to 6%, plus conservation, clean coal, etc.)
Copyright W. Halal 2008
THE BIOTECHNOLOGY THE BIOTECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION:REVOLUTION:REVOLUTION:REVOLUTION:
Mastery of LifeMastery of Life
The Intersection of Biology with Information Technology
10 000 00000
DNA Seqencing CostLogarithmic Plot
1.0000010.00000
100.00000
1,000.0000010,000.00000
ollars
0.00010
0.001000.01000
0.10000
Cost in Do
0.000000.00001
Year Growth in Genbank DNA Sequence DataLogarithmic Plot
1.E+08
1.E+09
1.E+10
1.E+11
Base Pairs
Sequences
Base Pairs
Logarithmic Plot
1.E+04
1.E+05
1.E+06
1.E+07
s and Sequen
1.E+02
1.E+03
1.E 04
Year
nces
Source: KurzweilAI
Mastery of lifeMastery of lifeThe Venture team has inserted a different operating system into a living cell system into a living cell.
They copied the DNA sequence from one type of cell and inserted it into a different type of cell which is now inserted it into a different type of cell, which is now reproducing.
In effect, they recoded the cell., y
This can not be called creating “synthetic life” since it was not created “from scratch,” but it is a giant step g pforward.
In principle, it demonstrates that the DNA coding of cells can be changed, opening the possibility of designing an endless stream of clever micro-organisms that could manufacture anything from drugs and energy to biological weaponsweapons.
Source: KurzweilAI
Life expectancy –immortality?
MINATURIZATIONMINATURIZATION --MINATURIZATIONMINATURIZATIONnanotechnologynanotechnology
Another Exponential Trend
U.S. Nano‐Related PatentsL ith i Pl t
1,000`
Logarithmic Plot
100
Pate
nts
10
Year
100,000
Nanotech Science Citations ‐ 1990‐2002
Logarithmic Plot
1,000
10,000
Citation
s
100
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002Year
Source: KurzweilAI
Nanobots provide…
Neural implants that are:Noninvasive, surgery-freeDistributed to millions or billions of points in the brainbillions of points in the brain
Full-immersion virtual reality incorporating all of the senses
You can be someone else“Experience Beamers”
Expansion of human intelligenceExpansion of human intelligenceMultiply our 100 trillion connections many foldIntimate connection to diverse forms of nonbiologicalforms of nonbiologicalintelligence
Source: KurzweilAI
COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGY COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGY COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGY COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGY
BUILDING THE HUMAN BRAINBUILDING THE HUMAN BRAIN
Resolution of Noninvasive Brain ScanningL ith i Pl t
0.1mm)
Logarithmic Plot
1
Res
olution (m
10
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Brain scanning/imaging Reconstruction time (seconds)
h l97 975 9 9 5 99 995Year
10
100
1000Logarithmic Plot
0.1
1
10
Seco
nds
0.001
0.01
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
YYear
Source: KurzweilAI
The CerebellumThe CerebellumThe basic wiring method of the cerebellum is repeated billions of times. It is clear that the genome does not provide specific information about each repetition of this cerebellarstructure
but rather specifies certain constraints as to how this structure is repeated
j t th d t if just as the genome does not specify the exact location of cells in other organs, such the location of each pancreatic Islet cell in the pancreas
Source: KurzweilAI
3. Global MegaCrisisThe Perfect storm hypothesis
Source: “The Perfect Storm” movie
Global TransformationsGlobal TransformationsCategory Incremental Transformations Wild cards – potential abrupt changes
Social Global population increase Killer pandemic (50% 30 yrs, 4/10 destruction)Social Global population increaseDemographics – growth in developing worldLife expectancy increasing ‐ Ageing in developed worldHealth – improving with new medicinesWhere to live, urbanisation
Killer pandemic (50% 30 yrs, 4/10 destruction)
Nature of work – and leisureChanging education and learning
Economic Economic growth and jobsResource depletion ‐oil, gas, metals, water ‐ shift to renewablesEnergy and food security
Food crisisCollapse of US economy
Energy and food securityFinancial stabilityChange in manufacturing
Environmental Loss of biodiversity – mass extinctionLoss of ecosystem services
Solar superstorm (5% in 15 yrs, 2/10 destruction)Runaway global warming (50% in 200 yrs, 3/10 destruction)
Declining environmental qualityClimate changeLoss of fish stocks and agricultural land
Supervolcano (1% next 1000 yrs, 5/10 destruction)Large asteroid impact (1 in a million 100yrs, 9/10 destruction)Cosmic gamma ray burst (6% 100m yrs, 7/10 destruction)
Political New world order – BRICK economic powerhousesRise of China
Nuclear war (3% next 10 yrs, 6/10 destruction)Terrorist nuclear bombRise of China
Changing role of global governanceWar and terrorism (increasing asymmetric ‐ individualised)Rich‐poor divide
Terrorist nuclear bombCollapse of the United Nations/global governance
Science & Frontier technologies (infotech, biotech, nanotech, cognitech) Man‐made black holeTechnology Mastery of life
TranshumanismVirtualisationSpace colonisation
Time travelMachines become more intelligent than humansContact with aliens
Impacts to theEnvironment WaterEnvironment
THETHEPERFECT
Population STORM…
Gl b lE & GlobalFood
Energy &Building
Supplyg
Materials
populationpopulation
To meet the needs of population growth and urbanisation, 40 new cities of 2 million people are needed each year for the next 40 years (there is no known way to do this)
Where will we live?Where will we live?
Presently there are over a billion people living in ‘shadow cities’ around the world, and another billion will be living in shadow cities in 10-15 years.
Mumbai, IndiaSource: Dr. Jorge Vanegas
Outgrowing our planetOutgrowing our planet
Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2010
Resource Depletion: Fossil FuelsResource Depletion: Fossil Fuels
90% of the world’s coal to have been extracted by 2072Oil predicted to reach US$500 a barrel by 2020 at the World Economic Summit, 2008China will be the world’s largest China will be the world s largest oil consumer by 2020Coal now 40% of fossil fuel Coal now 40% of fossil fuel emissions Global rate of oil
production and cumulative production using a production, using a multicyclic Hubbert model (source: Nashawi 2010)
Resource depletion: waterResource depletion: water
water qualitywater quality
An estimated 40,000 people around the world die each day of diseases directly caused byeach day of diseases directly caused by contaminated water (80% of all health problems)
Source: Dr. Jorge Vanegas
Global warming and Climate Change
Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Greenhouse Gas Emissionsprojected and actual
Source: IPCC 2007 Source: GCP 2008
Ipcc 2007 forecast global warmingIpcc 2007 forecast global warming
Change in global mean sea level 1870-2009
Hydrological changes this century (A1B scenario)
Source: IPCC 2007
Drivers of ecosystem impactsDrivers of ecosystem impacts
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Mass Extinction biodiversity lossMass Extinction – biodiversity loss
Source: United Nations Environment Programme GEO4
Global food securityGlobal food securityIn 2009, the number of ,people facing chronic undernourishment jumped to I billion
The World Bank forecasts the average US household will spend g p25% of annual income on food within ten years (10% now).
During the 2010-2050 age of scarcity we will see peak energy scarcity, we will see peak energy, food, water, materials & population., , p p
Everyone will have to cope with constricted resources. Our current lifestyles are likely to become more lifestyles are likely to become more unsustainable during this period.
Futurist, Jan.-Feb. 2010
state of the future indexwill things get better or worse on aggregate?
Source: The Millennium Project
Where are we winning?Where are we winning?
Source: The Millennium Project
Where are we losing?Where are we losing?
Source: The Millennium Project
Four global scenarios
scenario1. DECLINE TO DISASTER
Th ld f il t t ith di t I d i i The world fails to react with disastrous consequences. Indecision reigns due to too many choices, too many entrenched interest groups, and too few resources to make needed changes. Huge government deficits persist leading to diminished public services government deficits persist, leading to diminished public services and an inability to make crucial transition investments. Governments are also unable to reform financial systems, curb global warming, or solve the energy problem while corporations remain focused on solve the energy problem, while corporations remain focused on profit. Technological advances are shelved or fail to help. Global warming becomes severe, with extreme weather events and sea level rise leading to massive migrations and crop losses. The world g g psinks into economic depression, crippling energy shortages, collapse of large ecological systems, much destruction of life, rampant war, crime, and corruption. Worldwide pandemics, nuclear attacks, bioterrorism, cyber attacks, and/or crashes of the Worldwide Web may add to the decline. Many parts of the world suffer the loss of functioning civilization
Source: World Future Review
Scenario 2MUDDLING DOWN
H lf i d t ti i ili ti t t Half-way, inadequate actions cause civilization to enter a high-tech dark age. Political stalemates, lack of resources, and ignorance about the complexity of the problem result in
l d t h i fi i l t only modest changes in financial systems, governance, energy, and education. The promise of new technologies is only partly met, while pollution and population pressures
ti Gl b l i d t th i continue. Global warming and extreme weather increase. Recovery from the Great Recession is slow and uneven, and the number of failed states rises. Regional wars and terrorist attacks increase. Despite claims of progress by political and corporate leaders, the quality of life declines for most people. These strains on the capacity of the planet to support global industrialization lead to more people living in poverty and despair, and often reacting violently.
Source: World Future Review
Scenario 3MUDDLING UP
G t d ti t l l b t i i Governments and corporations act slowly, but increasing knowledge and mounting threats spur continued efforts. Far more sophisticated IT and AI provide more powerful technical capabilities, a wider understanding of the problems, and an appreciation of the fundamental need to promote sustainability. The sense of urgency builds as p y g yproblems increase, so public attitudes shift enough to favour needed changes, and reasonably good leadership is able to provide guidance. There are minor disasters along able to provide guidance. There are minor disasters along the way but little that is catastrophic. A rudimentary but functioning global order emerges to manage this advanced society in time to avert widespread disaster albeit with an society in time to avert widespread disaster, albeit with an increasing level of the normal problems in any large social system.
Source: World Future Review
Scenario 4RISE TO MATURITY
Th t iti t l b l d i d thl d The transition to a new global order is made smoothly and quickly. There is a rapidly growing realization that the Earth is a precious living system requiring human care. Governments and corporations react wisely and with determination, and they are supported by the majority of people, so the world surpasses the UN Millennium p p , pDevelopment Goals of halving poverty by 2015, and the Earth approaches sustainability. Energy shortages, climate change and global conflict are largely avoided. The media change, and global conflict are largely avoided. The media, schools, and colleges offer useful knowledge and intelligent guidance, and widespread, in-depth debates illuminate and resolve crucial issues The world enters global maturity resolve crucial issues. The world enters global maturity rather easily and unscathed.
Source: World Future Review
Global scenarios survey(Results as of June 10, 2010 Sample = 55)
Decline to Disaster - 25% probability World fails to t Gl b l i l l i h t ireact. Global warming, sea level rise, energy shortages, economic
depression, nuclear exchange, etc. Loss of civilization in major nations.
Muddling Down 35% probability W kMuddling Down - 35% probability Weak response. High-tech dark age, ecological damage, increased poverty and conflict.
Muddling Up 28% probability W ld t t fMuddling Up - 28% probability World reacts out of need and the help of IT/AI. Disaster avoided but some increased disorder
Rise to Maturity 12% probabilityRise to Maturity - 12% probability Ideal transition to a responsible global order.
Source: TechCast 63
What can we expect by 205010 global megatrends
Megatrend Implications Impact (/10)Population 9b, 90% developing world 6
Humans conditions
Urbanised shadow cities, big have/have-nots divide, rising standard of living for growing middle class
7conditionsResources Peak oil, gas, water, P, periodic food security issues, renewables 8
Climate Hotter, floods, droughts, sea-level rise, dangerous climate 7*g gchange
Ecosystems Continuing decline in biodiversity and ecosystem goods & services
6
Work Virtual world, S&T-dominated, e-everything, leisure, make-work 7*
Global power China/Asia dominant, western world still strong, transnationals still powerful, global governance weak
6*
AI/robotics Ubiquitous, higher intelligence, ‘robot best friends’ 5*
Mastery of life Live to 150, new synthetic life forms, man and machine merge 6*
Nanotechnology Replace most traditional production, ubiquitous 8*
War terrorism Individualised power (nuclear, bio), security conscious 6*
Quotable quotesQuotable quotes“Humans are now responsible for the “In the future there will be no need for evolution of nearly everything, including themselves” “We can now see our bodies and
humans to work – we can go on a perpetual vacation or do ‘make work’ “It’s not an issue of us vs machines –
brains as information technology” “Evolution works through indirection –it creates a capability and then uses
It s not an issue of us vs machines we are rapidly merging” “By 2018 we will be able to genetically design new humans”y
that capability to evolve the next stage” “Biology is very sub-optimal compared with what we can design”
design new humans Those born in the 1990s can expect to live to 110-120 – the longevity revolution”g
“We are already collaborating with our machines…they will become the more intelligent part of the process”
revolution “There is a way out of global crises through technology” “Urbanisation occ rred 6000 rs agog p p
“Patients prefer robots to humans” “Creativity Machine ‘dreams’ ideas faster than humans”
“Urbanisation occurred 6000 yrs ago and took 1000 yrs. Virtualisation will be as big but will take 10-20 years”
faster than humans
summarysummary
Technology is increasing at exponential ratesIT is permeating other fields and speeding up progressMastery of life, AI and robotics will transform us yand our lives in the near futureA global megacrisis is arising from population A global megacrisis is arising from population pressures, resource depletion and climate changeUse of new technologies seems to be the only Use of new technologies seems to be the only way out