world tendencies in the agricultural machinery industry
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World Tendencies in the Agricultural Machinery Industry First Agricultural Machinery Russian Dealer‘s Day in Russia 4th March 2010, Moscow Bernd Scherer Managing Director VDMA Agricultural Machinery. Forecast 2010. Development of sales in global engineering branch. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 1 • 2010-03-04
World Tendencies in the Agricultural Machinery Industry
First Agricultural Machinery Russian Dealer‘s Day in Russia
4th March 2010, Moscow
Bernd Scherer
Managing Director
VDMA Agricultural Machinery
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 2 • 2010-03-04
Development of sales in global engineering branch
real variation compared to previous year in %
Source: National Associations, VDMA
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Italy
Sweden
Switzerland Germany
Austria
Norway
Western Europe
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium Great Britain
US
Denmark
France
Finland
Japan China
Forecast 2010
Estimation 2009
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 3 • 2010-03-04
German machinery exports20 high-range sales markets
Jan -Nov 2009; nominal variation compared to previous year in %
Source: Federal Statistical Office, VDMA
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
Russia Spain
SwedenCzech Republic
ItalyPoland
USDenmark
France
Turkey Great Britain
Japan Brazil
IndiaNetherlands
Belgium Austria
Switzerland
Republic of KoreaChina
In total: -24,4 %
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 4 • 2010-03-04
Incoming orders
Global economic climate andincoming orders in engineering industry
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
*) Rate of change compared to the previous month of seasonally adjusted and smoothed indexes of incoming orders
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
125
Index
Global economic climate
%
Source: ifo-Institut, VDMA
Incoming orders*
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30Global economic climate
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 5 • 2010-03-04
Impact of crisis on agriculture
Weak and shifting food demand
Pressure on global trade Difficult credit and capital market
Price volatility: - Exchange rates - Commodity prices
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 6 • 2010-03-04
Agrarian Markets (1): Cereals and Oilseeds
Rapeseed
Wheat
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 7 • 2010-03-04
Declining Income in the Past Two Years (1)
Agricultural Income Development (real index per worker with 2005=100)
Fläche für Grafik
Source: Eurostat
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
European Union
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 8 • 2010-03-04
Agricultural Income Development (real index per worker with 2005=100)
Fläche für Grafik
Source: Eurostat
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
European Union
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Poland
Romania
Declining Income in the Past Two Years (2)
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 9 • 2010-03-04
Source: Freedonia, VDMA, Expert Interviews, Oliver Wyman Analysis
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 10 • 2010-03-04
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 11 • 2010-03-04
Development of the Main European Agricultural Machinery Markets 2007-2009
nominal % change of European Agricultural Machinery Markets
Source: national statistic agencies, VDMA (incl. estimation for 2009)
26
16
7
16
7
29
20
-5
13
6
21
23
14
25
16
-22
-40
-20
-5
-40
-25
-25
-40
-10
8
-15
-12
-16
-30
-18
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Sweden
Czech Republic
Finland
Austria
Denmark
Poland
Netherlands
Spain
United Kingdom
Italy
France
Germany
EU 15
EU 12
EU 27
2009e
2008
2007
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 12 • 2010-03-04
Development of the Export Business - Main Markets for the German Industry Outside the EU
Exports from Germany to … Values Jan-Nov.
Fläche für Grafik Fläche für Grafik
Source: Federal Statistics Agency, VDMA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
United States Russia Switzerland Belarus Australia Ukraine
in M
ill. E
uro
2007 2008 2009
-33%
+1%+6%+2%
-62%
-67%
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 13 • 2010-03-04
German Agricultural Machinery Industry
Turnover in Bn. Euro %-change
Fläche für Grafik Fläche für Grafik
Source: VDMA Agricultural Machinery Association
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010e
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 14 • 2010-03-04
Economic Climate in Agriculture:Recent Recovery
12,0
39,0 38,1
17,5
25,120,0
30,7
44,9
-20
0
20
40
60
Dec. Mrc. June Sept. Dec. Mrc. June Sept. Dec. Mrc. June Sept. Dec.
Agricultural business barometer- Russia compared to Germany -
Coverage by sample: 10% of farms, 81% of arable area
Index computed out of: Questions 3, 4: How would you rate the current economic situation of your farm? How would you rate the economic situation of your enterprise in the next 2 to 3 years compared to the current situation?
Mean2000 - 2006
2006 2007 2008 2009
Russia(n = 550)
Germany(n = 854)
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 15 • 2010-03-04
Question: We expect our overall turnover within the next 6 months to....
Source: CEMA Business Barometer February 2010
21% 23%
27%
15%
52%
70%
51%
33%23%
50%
63%
33%
15% 15%
33% 38%
33%
54%
17%
33%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Total Industry Arableequipment
Harvestingequipment and
tractors
Lawn, gardenand Municipal
equipment
Livestockequipment
Transportation Components
decrease
remainunchanged
grow
CEMA Business Barometer: Different Turnover Expectations within the Branch
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 16 • 2010-03-04
in % of interviewees
Source: CEMA Business Barometer February 2010
Question: When do you expect an overall increase of the order intake again for your entire company?
13
20
23
21
11
5
14 14
24
29
1413
6
25
28
19
911
1. quarter 2010 2. quarter 2010 3. quarter 2010 4. quarter 2010 1. quarter 2011 later
Total (including others)
Arable equipment
Tractors and harvesting machines
CEMA Business Barometer:When does the upswing come?
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 17 • 2010-03-04
Source: OECD, 2009
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 18 • 2010-03-04
Source: Rabobank based on FAO/Freedonia
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Agricultural Machinery
Bernd Scherer Page 19 • 2010-03-04
Thank you
very much
for your attention
Bernd SchererVDMA Agricultural MachineryPhone +49 (0) 69 6603 1305
E-Mail [email protected]