world supply and demand of tilapia helga josupeit rome infofish tilapia conference, kuala lumpur,...
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World supply and World supply and demand of tilapiademand of tilapia
Helga Josupeit
Rome
INFOFISH Tilapia Conference,
Kuala Lumpur, October 2010
OutlineOutline
• world productionworld production
• world exports, world exports, – with special emphasis on Chinawith special emphasis on China
• world importsworld imports– with special emphasis on the US marketwith special emphasis on the US market
• Forecast for 2015Forecast for 2015
• SummarySummary
World tilapia production
0.00.51.0
1.52.02.53.0
3.54.0
1953 1958 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
millio
n ton
nes capture
aquaculture
Source FISHSTAT+
Tilapia production by major Tilapia production by major countriescountries
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
millions of tonnes
Others
Thailand
Uganda
Philippines
Indonesia
Egypt
China
World tilapia production by species
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Mil
lon
de
ton
elad
as
Others
Tilapias nei
Nile tilapia
Tilapia of Mozambique
755000
340000
170000
70000
22000
8000
Aquaculture production
1200000
900000130000
150000
430000
9000
2008
Tilapia Aquaculture Tilapia Aquaculture production production
(2008, by region, in tonnes)(2008, by region, in tonnes)
755000
340000
170000
70000
22000
8000
Aquaculture production
1200000
900000
130000
150000
430000
9000
2008
2000
Aquaculture production Aquaculture production (2000 versus 2008, (2000 versus 2008, by region, in tonnes)by region, in tonnes)
Trade flow, China 2009 Trade flow, China 2009 (in tonnes)(in tonnes)
134000134000
1880018800
3600036000
2200022000
Total Chinese tilapia exports: 259 000 tonnes
2000020000
66006600
Chinese tilapia exportsChinese tilapia exports
.......................Jan-Dec....................... ..........Jan-Jun..........
2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010
(1000 tonnes)
USA 122.0 118.6 134.4 50.8 55.6 66.5
Mexico 39.3 36.5 36.2 17.9 17.5 21.4
Russia 19.3 17.1 21.9 9.4 10.3 9.9
Israel 4.1 4.2 6.6 1.3 1.8 2.8
Germany 1.2 1.7 2.0 0.8 0.8 1.3
Hong Kong 1.5 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.6
Belgium 1.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 0.7 1.1
Puerto Rico 1.3 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.6 0.7
Dominican Rep. 1.4 0.5 1.0 0.1 0.6 0.6
Canada 0.7 0.6 2.4 0.3 0.8 1.1
Others 23.0 40.9 49.7 14.1 14.2 31.3
Total 215.2 224.4 258.1 96.3 103.2 137.3
Trade flow estimates, Trade flow estimates, excluding China 2009 excluding China 2009
(in tonnes)(in tonnes)
93009300
1270012700
1550015500
1000010000
20002000
Total tilapia exports excluding China : 40 000 tonnes
Trade flow estimates Trade flow estimates 2006-2009 comparison (in tonnes)2006-2009 comparison (in tonnes)
104000104000
1200012000
1240012400 215002150010001000
50005000
80008000
500500
10001000
170000 USA, Canada 170000 USA, Canada and Mexicoand Mexico
2006200620092009
40000 (Russia + EU)40000 (Russia + EU)
202020002000
1000010000
111550015500
93009300
1270012700
Trade flow estimates Trade flow estimates 2009 (in tonnes)2009 (in tonnes)
increase by 70%increase by 70%
2006200620092009
huge increasehuge increase
double double
moderate increasemoderate increase
disappeareddisappeared
sharp sharp declinedecline
sharp declinesharp decline
stablestabledisappeareddisappeared
Import estimates 2009 Import estimates 2009 (in tonnes, product (in tonnes, product
weight)weight)
70007000
2200022000
2100021000
4000040000
183000183000
10001000
2000020000
US tilapia importsUS tilapia imports
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Jan-Ju
ne 2
009
Jan-Ju
ne 2
010
Whole frozenFrozen filletsFresh fillets
1000
tonn
es
US tilapia importsUS tilapia imports
.......................Jan-Dec....................... ..........Jan-Jun..........
2007 2008 2009 2008 2009 2010
(1000 tonnes)
China 120.0 119.3 130.4 52.5 56.8 68.8
Indonesia 8.6 9.8 8.8 4.9 4.0 4.6
Taiwan PC 16.1 18.6 15.7 9.9 8.5 8.6
Ecuador 12.5 9.2 10.2 4.9 5.3 4.5
Thailand 0.2 3.7 1.6 1.9 0.8 1.5
Honduras 7.9 8.3 6.5 4.5 3.2 3.5
Costa Rica 4.8 5.6 5.7 2.9 2.9 3.2
Others 3.6 4.9 4.5 2.7 2.4 2.4
Total 173.7 179.4 183.4 84.2 83.9 97.0
Source: GLOBEFISH
Frozen tilapia fillets in the Frozen tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market US wholesale market
(US$/lb)(US$/lb)
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 j-07 j-08 j-09 j-10
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
4.2
J-97 J-98 J-99 J-00 J-01 J-02 J-03 J-04 J-05 J-06 j-07 j-08 j-09 j-10
Fresh tilapia fillets in the Fresh tilapia fillets in the US wholesale market US wholesale market
(US$/lb)(US$/lb)
Supply estimates 2009 Supply estimates 2009 (in tonnes, liveweight (in tonnes, liveweight
equivalent)equivalent)
2100021000
6600066000
5600056000
190000190000
480000480000
130000130000
500000500000
9450009450001200012000
70007000
950000950000
Past Supply trendsPast Supply trends
imports imports growinggrowing
supply supply growinggrowing
supply supply limitedlimited
domestic production stagnant, one domestic production stagnant, one third of supply from importsthird of supply from imports
imports growing, all imports growing, all supply from importssupply from imports
supply mainly from domestic supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, production, which is growing, exports decliningexports declining
more than half of more than half of production goes to exports, production goes to exports, production stabilizesproduction stabilizes
production production growing, almost growing, almost
no exports, no exports, limited importslimited imports
imports stable, all imports stable, all supply from importssupply from imports
some some small small importsimports
production growing production growing strongly, mainly for strongly, mainly for
domestic marketdomestic market
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0millions of tonnes
Others
Thailand
Uganda
Philippines
Indonesia
Egypt
China
Tilapia forecast – scenario 1:Tilapia forecast – scenario 1:no further growth in Chinano further growth in China
forecast2015: 4.6 million tonnes2015: 4.6 million tonnes
Tilapia forecast – scenario 2:Tilapia forecast – scenario 2:growth in Chinagrowth in China
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
millions of tonnes
Others
Thailand
Uganda
Philippines
Indonesia
Egypt
China
forecast2015: 5 million tonnes2015: 5 million tonnes
Supply trends – 2015Supply trends – 2015
imports imports stablestable
supply supply stablestable
supply supply limitedlimited
domestic production stagnant, half domestic production stagnant, half of supply from importsof supply from imports
imports stable, all supply imports stable, all supply from importsfrom imports
supply mainly from domestic supply mainly from domestic production, which is growing, production, which is growing, exports almost nilexports almost nil
more than half of more than half of production goes to exports, production goes to exports, production stabilizesproduction stabilizes
production production growing, almost growing, almost
no exports, no exports, limited importslimited imports
imports declining, all imports declining, all supply from importssupply from imports
some some small small importsimports
production growing production growing strongly, mainly for strongly, mainly for
domestic marketdomestic market
Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize,Overall: supply in developed countries will stabilize,increased production all for Asian and Latin American marketincreased production all for Asian and Latin American market
World tilapia exportsWorld tilapia exports• Trade relatively unimportant, but Trade relatively unimportant, but
expandingexpanding• Total world trade can be estimated at Total world trade can be estimated at
300 000 MT (product weight), which is 300 000 MT (product weight), which is double the figure of only three years agodouble the figure of only three years ago
• China by far main exporter. accounting China by far main exporter. accounting for almost 90% of total exportsfor almost 90% of total exports
• Share of China in total trade growingShare of China in total trade growing
Outlook for tilapia supplyOutlook for tilapia supply
• Supply continues to expand, especially in South Supply continues to expand, especially in South East AsiaEast Asia
• Some increases in Latin AmericaSome increases in Latin America• China will increase presence on market, China will increase presence on market,
especially targeting Europeespecially targeting Europe• However, the production in China likely to However, the production in China likely to
stabilizestabilize• More value addition in developing countriesMore value addition in developing countries• Investment by foreign companies in tilapia farmsInvestment by foreign companies in tilapia farms
Outlook for tilapia demandOutlook for tilapia demand
• Demand is strong and growing in the USADemand is strong and growing in the USA
• Very good market in Latin AmericaVery good market in Latin America
• Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market Demand in Europe still slow, and as the market is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, is well supplied with pangasius and Nile perch, unlikely that there will be a strong growthunlikely that there will be a strong growth
• Demand in South East strong, and supplied by Demand in South East strong, and supplied by domestic and regional tradedomestic and regional trade
Thank you for your kind attentionThank you for your kind attention