world statistics

O.I.V. 05International Organisation of Vine and WineInternational Organisation of Vine and Wine

International Organisationof Vine and Wine

1



O.I.V. REPORT ON THESTATE OF THE VITIVINICULTURE

WORLD MARKET • Surface area of world vineyards •Grapes

•Global production •International trade

•Fresh grapes•Global production •Global consumption

•Raisins •Global production•Global consumption •International trade

•Wine•Global wine production • Global wine consumption• Degree of market equilibrium in the world of wine• International trade2


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Surface area of vineyards worldwide

Surface area of vineyards worldwide

3



70007200740076007800800082008400860088009000

100

0 h

aSurface area of vineyards worldwide

Areas planted in vines

4



12,1%2,4%

58,9%

4,9%

21,7%

EuropeAsiaAmericaAfricaOceania

Areas planted in vines by continent

Forecast 2005


5



-1000 -500 0 500

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

World

91-95 / 86-90

96-00 / 91-95

01-forecast 05 / 96-00

Evolution of world vineyards

Surface area of vineyards worldwide 10

00 h

a

5 years evolution

6


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Surface area of vineyards worldwide

1180

890

847

570 487

399

296 250 218 217 191 167

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1000 ha Areas planted in vines of the 12 leading countries

Forecat 2005

7



y = 537,46Ln(x) + 6191,6

7000

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

10000

10500

19

79

19

81

19

83

19

85

19

87

19

89

19

91

19

93

19

95

19

97

19

99

20

01

20

03

Pré

v2

00

5

SOURCE : OIV + conjoncture Mars 2006 (PA) Pro

jec

t.20

10

8000 mha


Total surface area of vineyards worldwide

8


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Global grape production

Global grape production

9



500 000

550 000

600 000

650 000

700 000

Total grape production1000 000 qx

10



24,0%

20,6%

5,7%

46,5%

3,3%Europe

Asia

America

Africa

Oceania

Forecast 2005

Total grape production by continent

11



86

68

63 5956

3728 28

23 20 17

13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1000

000

qx

Total grape production of the 12 leading countries


Forecast 2005

12



0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90


Qx / ha

Yield of global grape production

13


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Fresh grapes

International tradefresh grapes

14



05

101520253035404550

World importsof fresh grapes

Fresh grapes

1000 000 qx

15



59,7%26,6%

13,1%

0,3%

0,4% Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

World imports of fresh grapes by continent

Forecast 2005

Fresh grapes

16



0500

1 0001 5002 0002 5003 0003 5004 0004 5005 000

USA

Germ

any

Russi

an F

ed

Unite

d Kin

gdom

Canad

a

Nether

lands

France

Belgiu

m

Hong-K

ong

Polan

d

Mex

ico

Austri

a

World imports of fresh grapes of the 12 leading countries

Fresh grapes

1000 qx

Forecast 2005

17



05

101520253035404550

World exportsof fresh grapes

Fresh grapes

1000 000 qx

18



36,6%

42,3%

12,2%

7,5%1,5% Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

World exports of fresh grapes by continent

Forecast 2005

Fresh grapes

19



0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

World exports of fresh grapes of the 12 leading countries

Fresh grapes

100

0 q

x

Forecast 2005

20



Global production of grapes for fresh usage

21



100

0 0

00

qx

Total production of fresh grapes

80

100

120

140

160

180

Fresh grapes

22



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

100

0 0

00

qx

Total production of fresh grapes of the 12 leading countries

Reminder 2003

Fresh grapes

23



Global consumption of fresh grapes

24



100

0 0

00

qx

Total consumption of fresh grapes

100

120

140

160

180

Fresh grapes

25



55,8%22,9%

11,1%

10,0% 0,3% Asia

Europe

America

Africa

Oceania

Total consumption of fresh grapes by continent

Forecast 2005

Fresh grapes

26



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 0

00

00

0 q

xTotal consumption of fresh grapes

of the 12 leading countries

Forecast 2005

Fresh grapes

27


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Raisins

Global raisin production

28



Total raisin production1000 qx

29

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000



34,1%

8,5%

3,4% 2,5%

51,6%

Asia

America

Europe

Africa

Oceania

Raisins

Total raisin production by continent

Forecast 200530



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1000

qx

Total raisin production of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

Forecast 2005

31



Global raisin consumption

32



8 000

9 000

10 000

11 000

12 000

13 000

14 000

15 000

Raisins

Total raisin consumption 1

000

qx

33



26,4%

27,2%

2,3%

40,6%

3,5%Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

Raisins

Total raisin consumption by continent

Forecast 200534



0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

100

0 q

x Total raisin consumption of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

Forecast 2005

35



International tradeRaisins

36



0

2

4

6

8

10

World importsof raisins

Raisins1

000

00

0 q

x

37



64,4%13,2%

16,2%

2,3%4,0%

Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

World imports ofraisins

Forecast 2005

Raisins

38



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

World imports of raisin of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

1000 qx

Forecast 2005

39



0

2

4

6

8

10

World exportsof raisins

Raisins

1000 000 qx

40



10,9%

28,4%55,8%

4,0%0,9% Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

World exports of raisins

Forecast 2005

Raisins

41



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Turkey Ira

nUSA

Chile

South

Afri

ca

Greec

e

Argen

tina

Afg

hanis

tan

Uzb

ekis

tan

China

Unite

d Ara

b Em

irate

s

Belgiu

m

World exports of raisins of the 12 leading countries

Raisins

1000 qx

Forecast. 2005

42


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Global wine production

Global wine production

43



220

230240

250

260270

280

290300

310

1000 000 hl

World production of wine


44



19,0%

5,0% 5,4% 3,6%

67,1%

EuropeAmericaAsiaOceaniaAfrica

World production of wine by continent

Forecast 2005


45



0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

World production of wine of the 12 leading countries

Global wine production 1

000

00

0 h

l

Forecast 2005

46



y = 1,936x + 227,97

y = 0,326x2 - 12,503x + 385,08

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

390

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003 20

10es

t.

320 Miohl

290 Miohl

"Surface area est. * Apparent est. yield" = between 8000mha * 37,5 hl/ha = 300 Miohl

ordre of magnitude for 2010 300 Miohl

SOURCE : OIV + conjoncture Mars 2006 (PA) 2005

fo

reca

st


Evolution of wine production

47

1000 hl


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Global wine consumption

Global wine consumption

48



210

215

220

225

230

235

240

245

1000 000 hl

World consumption of wine


49



20,5%

7,1% 2,6% 2,3%

67,6%

Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

World consumption of wine by continent

Forecast.2005


50



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Global wine consumption in the 12 leading countries1

000

00

0 h

lGlobal wine consumption

Forecast 2005

51



210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2010

es

tim

ate

239 Miohl

Given the difficulty of taking into account:- the possible development of new markets,

- the competitive nature between alcoholic beverages by geographic zone, 239 to 255 Miohl est. is withheld

SOURCE : OIV + conjoncture Mars 2006 (PA)

255 Miohl

200

5 fo

reca

st

Evolution of wine consumption


52



Per capita wine consumption

Liters


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Luxem

bourg

Franc

eIta

ly

Portu

gal

Slove

nia

Croat

ia

Switzer

land

Hungar

y

Spain

Denm

ark

Austri

a

Argen

tina

Eval.2005

53 Calculation taken from FAO 2003 demographics data base


International Organisationof Vine and Wine Degree of market equilibrium in the world of wine

Degree of market equilibrium in the world of wine

54



Trend of difference between wine production and consumption


0,0

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

SOURCE : OIV + conjoncture Mars 2005 (PA)

NB: this spread can not be considered as a surplus because 35 million hl are used to supply the market for industrial purposes:

brandies, carburation, vinegars, and vermouth.

Given the projections for 2008 for production and consumption, the spread between production and

consumption should be between 38 and 65 million hl

and most probably around 50 million hl

55



-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

100

0 h

lDegree of market equilibrium in the world of wine

Difference between wine production and consumption for the main producer countries

Average: 2001/Forecast 2005

56


International Organisationof Vine and Wine International trade

International trade

57



01020304050607080

World wine imports

International trade

1000 000 hl

58



76,6%

15,4%3,9%

3,1%

0,9% Europe

America

Asia

Africa

Oceania

World wine imports by continent

Forecast 2005

International trade

59



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

World wine imports of the 12 leading countries

International trade

1000 hl

Forecast 2005

60



0

10

20

30

4050

60

70

80

90

World wine Exports

International trade

1000 000 hl

61



73,1%

12,6%

9,6% 4,4% 0,3%EuropeAmericaOceaniaAfricaAsia

World wine exports by continent

Forecast 2005

International trade

62



-2000 2000 6000 10000

Africa

America

Asia

Europe

Oceania

World

91-95 / 86-90

96-00 / 91-95

Forecast 01-05 / 96-00

1000 hl

International trade

Evolution of wine exports

5 years evolution

63



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

World wine exports of the 12 leading countries

International trade

1000 hl

Forecast 2005

64



0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

avg.

86-9

0

avg.

91-9

5

avg.

96-0

0

avg.

fore

cast0

1-05

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

prov

. 200

4

fore

cast

2005

in 1

000

hl

Source OIV + note de conjoncture mondiale OIV 2005 (PA)

+ 2,2 Miohl /year


Evolution of world wine market

65



0100020003000400050006000700080009000

10000110001200013000140001500016000170001800019000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

prov.

200

4

fore

cast

200

5

in 1

000

hl


SP:+ 689 mhl /year

IT: - 21 mhl / year

FR :- 319 mhl / year since change in trend 1998

AUS: + 810 mhl /year since acceleration 1999

CHI: + 317 mhl / year

USA : + 219 mhl / year

Wine exports for the 6 leading countries (more than 3 miohl exported in 2005)

International trade

66



0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

prov.

200

4

fore

cast

200

5

in 1

000

hl


NZ: + 38 mhl / year ( + 150 mhl / year since 2003)

SA: + 216 mhl /year

Mol: + 305 mhl /yearsince 1999 comeback

Arg: + 255 mhl / year since 2000 break

Wine exports of countries with recent rapid growth (under 3Miohl exported in 2005)

International trade

67



Wine exports for other traditionally exporter countries

International trade

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

prov.

200

4

fore

cast

200

5

in 1

000

hl


Maghreb: Alg + Mor+ Tun PECOS: Bul + Hun + Rom

GER: + 57 mhl / year

Port: + 100 mhl / year

68

Pecos

Maghreb



World market share

International trade

62%

26%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

avg. 8

6-90

avg.9

1-95

avg.9

6-00

avg. f

oreca

st01

-05

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

prov.

200

4

fore

cast

200

5

5 leadingexporters UE

Southernhemisphere +USA

Other countries

69



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