world peace index: canada, mexico and the usa

8/14/2019 World Peace Index: Canada, Mexico and the USA

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Draft Version: June 9, 2009 page 1 of 6

Global Peace Index: A trilateral comparison

James Creechan

June 9, 2009

The Vision of Humanity website (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/index.php) publishes

an annual Global Peace Index (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/home.php) based on

23 indicators of the presence or absence of peace. The 2009 version compared

140 countries.

The methodology and data sources are described at

http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/aboutgpi/methodology.php , and indicators are coded

as 5 point ordinal scales (banded) for qualitative measures, and collapsed into

tenpoint categories for most quantitative measures. In the case of ordinal data, a

lower number indicates a more peaceful state, and quantitative measures commonly

use the higher score (maximum of 10) to indicate a more peaceful state. The peace

indicators are constructed from both internaland externalmeasures. The reader can

consult the methodology link for complete conceptual explanations of all indicators

and specifics about the comparative coding.

The Vision of Humanity site offers several options for viewing the indicators and

patterns. For instance, there is a page of international rankings of the overall

cumulative measures that indicates New Zealand is the most peaceful society (index

score of 1.2) and Iraq the least peaceful (index score of 3.341). Among NAFTA

partners, Canada ranks as 8th most peaceful society (cumulative index of 1.311), the

United States as 83rd (cumulative index of 2.015) and Mexico occupies 108th place

(index of 2.209). The complete rankings for all 140 countries are available at the

linkhttp://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/results/rankings.php.

The Vision of Humanity web site also allows a user to construct specificcomparisons (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi/results/comparison.php), and this

feature was used to create a comparative description of Canada, Mexico and the

United States. The indicators are presented in the table(s) below. Mexico appears to

differ significantly(although no ttest was computed) on several measures, and the

those areas of difference are highlighted by use of an italicized red font to describe

the categories and a bold red font for Mexican values on that index. The United

States differs significantly from both Mexico and Canada on a few indicators the

percentage of population in jails/prisons and the export of weapons.

The focus of this brief analysis is Mexico for which indicators and to what degree

does it differ from its Canadian and United States North American neighbours.

Comparison: Canada(CA) Mexico(MX) United States of

America(USA)CA MEX USA

Overall Peace Index Rank 8 108 83


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Score 1.311 2.209 2.015

Indicator information

# external & internal conflictsfought: 2002-2007

1.5 1 1.5

Estimated # deaths fromorganised conflict (external)

2 1 3

# of deaths from organisedconflict (internal)

1 1 1

Level of organised conflict(internal)

1 2 1

Relations with neighbourcountries

1 2 2

Perceptions of criminality in

society

2 3.5 2

# displaced people as % ofpopulation

1 1 1

Political instability 1 2.75 1.25

Respect for human rights 1.5 3 3

Potential for terriorist acts 2 3 3

# homicides per 100,000 1 4 2

Level of violent crime 1 5 2

Likelihood of violent

demonstrations

1 3.5 2

# jailed population per 100000 1.5 2 5

# internal security officers &police 100000

1 2 2

Military expenditure as % of GDP1 1 2

#f armed services personnel per100000

1 1 1

Volume of transfers of major

conventional weapons as

supplier (exports) per 100000

1.5 1 2.5


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Volume of transfers of majorconventional weapons as

recipient (Imports) per 100000

1 1 1

Funding for UN peacekeepingmissions (% assessed

contribution)

1 1 1

Aggregate number of heavyweapons per 100000

1 1 1

Ease of access to weapons of

minor destruction

2 4 3

Military capability/sophistication 3 3 5

The first section of the table (above) indicates significant differences that are obvious toany seasoned observer of North America but these indicators describe these

differences in a concrete way that quantifyies and symbolically focuses on specificthemes. The level of violence in Mexicois significantly higher, its citizens perceiveviolence to be high, and there is a greater potential for violent protest. Its not beenuncommon for Mexican politicians, including Mexican attorney general Eduardo MedinaMora Icaza, to argue that Mexico experiences no more violence than typically seen inUS large cities, but the international rankings indicate that this is a specious claim.Felipe Caldern Hinojosas government has argued that Mexico is really no more violentthan the USA because approximately 75% of allhomicidios dolosos (homicide withdeliberate intent) in 2008 occurred in only 3 of the 32 Mexican States. The dataindicates that the overall numbers are significantly higher, and easy access toweapons of minor destruction are a significant reason for the difference.

Driver information

democracy and transparency CA MX USA

Electoral process 9.17 7.92 8.75

Functioning of government 9.64 7.14 7.86

Political participation 7.78 5 7.22

Political culture 8.75 5 8.75

Civil liberties 10 8.82 8.53

Corruption perceptions (CPI

score: 10 = highly clean 0 =

highly corrupt)

8.7 3.6 7.3


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Women in parliament (% total # ofrepresentatives in lower house)

22.1 23.2 17

Political Democracy Index 9.07 6.78 8.22

Gender Inequality 0.72 0.64 0.7

Midterm elections will take place in early July, and there has been a great deal ofconcern that voter participation will be historically low because of indifference, mistrust,and widespread perceptions of corruption. The moral authority of both Federal andState Electoral Institutes has been severely damaged by the 2006 Presidential Votecontroversy, by the inability of Congress and Senate to reign in Televisa and otherbroadcasters, and by many revelations of corruption and self-serving actions bypoliticians. There is also increasing evidence and awareness of direct links betweennarcotraffic and politics, especially at the State and municipal level. President FelipeCalderons suprising move to arrest mayors and government officials in his native Stateof Michoacan may actually have an unintended consequence of suppressing voter

participation in the July elections. There is a growing movement calling for blankballots and boycotting of the elections related of the widely held cynical perceptionthat nothing will change. The data in the above indicators seems to suggest that thosewho are concerned about the current health of Mexican democracy may be correct.

international openness CA MX US

Freedom of the press 3.3 46.1 8

Last weeks execution of Elisio Barrn Hernndez(http://www.internationalpen.org.uk/go/news/mexico-second-journalist-murdered-in-durango-state ) is only one further example contributing to Mexicos reputation as one of themost dangerous places in the world to be a working journalist. PEN international saidthe following:

Mexico is one of the most dangerous countries in the world to work as a journalist.From 2004 to 2009, 22 writers - 21 print journalists and one author - have been

murdered, while four more print journalists have disappeared. Few if any of these crimes

have been properly investigated or punished. International PEN believes that it is likely

that these journalists were targeted in retaliation for their critical reporting, particularly

on drug trafficking. While organised crime groups are responsible for many attacks,

state agents, especially government officials and the police, are reportedly the main

perpetrators of violence against journalists, and complicit in its continuance.

International openness CA MX US

Exports+Imports % of GDP 58.2 55.2 23.9

Foreign Direct Investment (flow)% GDP

3.10% 1.70% 1.90%

Number of visitors as % of 56% 19.90% 17.10%


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domestic pop

Net Migration (% of total

population)

3.20% -3.7 2.20%

The downturn in the American economy may see these numbers change next year, butthere will also be other implications for Mexico if they do. Remittances from the UnitedStates to relatives Mexico provide the third largest source of legal revenue for theMexican economy in 2008.

demographics CA MX US

15-34 yr old males as % of total

pop

13.80% 16.2 14.40%

Gender ratio of pop: women/men 0.98 0.95 0.97

This number may not appear to be a significant difference but it is enormous indemographic terms. Furthermore, the upper age range (34) may be a misleading cut-offpoint. The number of males under 30 is the most significant contributor to thisdifference. The age group under 30 is most likely to be unemployed, undereducatedand targeted for recruited into narcotrafficking and other criminal misadventures.

In the following section, the most significant difference is in the retention data fromelementary school to secondary school. The comments about age also apply.

Regional & int'l

framework/conditions

CA MX US

Extent of regional integration 2 2 2

education CA MX US

Current education spending (%GDP)

4.90% 5.50% 5.30%

Primary school enrolment ratio(% Net)

99% 97.70% 91.60%

Secondary school enrolmentratio (% Net)

97.60% 68.60% 88.40%

Higher education enrolment (%Gross)62.40% 25.30% 82.20%

Mean yrs schooling 16.9 13.4 15.7

Adult literacy rate (% of pop over15)

99% 92.40% 99%


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culture CA MX US

Hostility to foreigners/privateproperty

0 1 1

Importance of religion in national

life

2 3 3

Willingness to fight 1 2 2

Material well-being CA MX US

Nominal GDP (US$PPP bn) 1284.415 1547.647 14264.6

Nominal GDP (US$bn) 1501.7914 1088.1279 14264.6

GDP per capita 45220 9900 46950

Gini-coefficient 32.6 46.1 40.8

Unemployment % 6.20% 4% 5.80%

Life expectancy 80.4 74.5 77.8

Infant mortality per 1000 livebirths

4.9 29.1 6.5

Source: Global Peace Index, Visions of Humanity (http://www.visionofhumanity.org/index.php)

world peace index: canada, mexico and the usa

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