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World Cup 2010 South Africa

Booklet – World Championship Analysis of participating teams Overview of the stadiums Model calculations Who is going to be World Champion?

© Saphira by Clipdealer

June 2010

2 June 2010

Content


Introduction 3

Stadiums 4

Qualification 6

Participants

Group A: South Africa, Mexico, Uruguay, France 8

Group B: Argentina, Nigeria, South Korea, Greece 10

Group C: England, USA, Algeria, Slovenia 12

Group D: Germany, Australia, Serbia, Ghana 14

Group E: Netherlands, Denmark, Japan, Cameroon 16

Group F: Italy, Paraguay, New Zealand, Slowakia 18

Group G: Brazil, North Korea, Ivory Coast, Portugal 20

Group H: Spain, Switzerland, Honduras, Chile 22

Overview of participants 24

Quotes 25

Match schedule 26

World Cup Quiz 28

Model calculation 30

Model results 32

Our Team 36

3June 2010

xx

The object of desire

Source: Udo Nowak/PIXELIO

At last! The time has come! While some of us are eagerly awaiting the big event, gluing stickers into our panini collection albums with shaking hands, pl-anning our holidays in line with the game schedules and ensuring a sufficient beer supply, others are se-riously questioning what all the fuss is about - grown men chasing a pigs bladder around a field. With this publication we hope to communicate our childlike ex-citement to appease those unfortunate few and to in-crease the level of anticipation for the true believers.

This time the show has moved to Africa for the first time ever. To be more precise it has moved to South Africa, which geographically lies in the south of Af-rica. Variability in altitude between the playing are-nas and the fact that the tournament will be held in the winter in the southern hemisphere are just a few details that have to be borne in mind. We want to give an overview of the stadiums with all the required valuable information that could make a difference. Next we analyze the teams, their paths during qua-lification and add some subjective comments of how we judge their strengths and weaknesses. Stunningly intelligent football quotes and a quiz for expert en-thusiasts rounds off the publication. As the absolute highlight we present a highly scientific analytical model of the tournament to identify who could end up with the grand prize and, more importantly, to calculate the optimal return flight dates for individual teams. As readers of our last European Champion-ship 2008 project may recall, we had some partial success with Spain reaching the finals exactly as pro-jected. Spurred by this result we have adjusted and improved our model and aim to surpass the previous result. But more on that inside...

On this note we hope that our readers will enjoy this document and, of course, the World Championship 2010. May the best team win.

Your Raiffeisen RESEARCH Team


The player's device

Source: Kunstzirkus, Stephanie Hofschlaeger/PIXELIO

Destination: Johannesburg

Source: Bernard Shane Diay

Introduction

4 June 2010

Stadiums

Polokwane,Peter-Mokaba-stadiumcapacity: 45,000sea level: 1230min June: max. temp.: 20°Cmin. temp.: 5°Cø rainy days: 1

Nelspruit,Mbombela stadiumcapacity: 43,500sea level: 671min June: max. temp.: 23°Cmin. temp.: 6°Cø rainy days: 2

Durban,Moses-Mabhida-stadiumcapacity: 70,000sea level: 15min June: max. temp.: 23°Cmin. temp.: 11°Cø rainy days: 5

N A M I B I A

Johannes-burg

Rustenburg

Polokwane

Nelspruit

Pretoria

Port Elizabeth

BloemfonteinDurban

250 km

Cape Town

B O T S WA N A

S I M B A B W E

MO

SA

MB

IK

S WA S I -L A N D

L E S O T H O

Cape Town, Green-Point-stadiumcapacity: 69,000sea level: 42min June: max. temp.: 18°Cmin. temp.: 7°Cø rainy days: 13

Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth,Nelson-Mandela-Bay-stadiumcapacity: 46,000sea level: 50min June: max. Temp.: 20°Cmin. Temp.: 9°Cø rainy days: 8

Mangaung/Bloemfontein,Free-State-stadiumcapacity: 45,000sea level: 1351min June: max. Temp.: 17°Cmin. Temp.: -2°Cø rainy days: 3

RustenburgRoyal-Bafokeng-stadiumcapacity: 44,500sea level: 1153min June: max. Temp.: 19°Cmin. Temp.: 2°Cø rainy days: 1

Johannesburg, Soccer Citycapacity: 94,700sea level: 1704mEllis-Park-stadiumCapacity: 62.500sea level:1753min June: max. Temp.: 17°Cmin. Temp.: 4°Cø rainy days: 1

Tshwane/PretoriaLoftus Versfeld Stadiumcapacity: 51,700sea level: 1351min June: max. Temp.: 20°Cmin. temp.: 5°Cø rainy days: 1

5June 2010

Winner last 16 1 - winner last 16 2Final: 11 July 2010, 20:30: Winner semi-final 1 - Winner semi-final 2

Johannesburg, Ellis-Park-stadiumGroup plays:Group B - 12 June 2010, 16:00: Argentina - NigeriaGroup G - 15 June 2010, 20:30: Brazil - North KoreaGroup C - 18 June 2010, 16:00: Slovenia - USAGroup H - 21 June 2010, 20:30: Spain - HondurasGroup F - 24 June 2010, 16:00: Slovakia - ItalyLast 16: 28 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group G - 2nd group HQuarter final: 3 July 2010, 20:30: Winner last 16 7- winner last 16 8

Tshwane/Pretoria, Loftus-Versfeld-stadiumGroup plays:Group D - 13 June 2010, 16:00: Serbia - Ghana Group A - 16 June 2010, 20:30: South Africa - UruguayGroup E - 19 June 2010, 20:30: Cameroon - DenmarkGroup C - 23 June 2010, 16:00: USA - AlgeriaGroup H - 25 June 2010, 20:30: Chile - SpainLast 16: 29 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group F – 2nd group E

Polokwane, Peter-Mokaba-stadiumGroup plays: Group C - 13 June 2010, 13:30: Algeria - Slovenia Group A - 17 June 2010, 20:30: France - MexicoGroup B - 22 June 2010, 20:30: Greece - ArgentinaGroup F - 24 June 2010, 16:00: Paraguay - New Zealand

Nelspruit, Mbombela stadiumGroup plays:Group H - 16 June 2010, 13:30: Honduras - ChileGroup F - 20 June 2010, 16:00: Italy - New ZealandGroup D - 23 June 2010, 20:30: Australia - SerbiaGroup C - 25 June 2010, 16:00: North Korea - Ivory coast

Durban, Moses-Mabhida-stadiumGroup plays: Group D - 13 June 2010, 20:30: Germany - AustraliaGroup H - 16 June 2010, 16:00: Spain - SwitzerlandGroup E - 19 June 2010, 13:30: Netherlands - JapanGroup B - 22 June 2010, 20:30: Nigeria - South KoreaGroup G - 25 June 2010, 16:00: Brazil - PortugalLast 16: 28 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group E - 2nd group FSemi-final: 7 July 2010, 20:30: Winner quarter final 3 - winner quarter final 4

Stadiums

Cape Town, Green-Point-stadiumGroup plays:Group A - 11 June 2010, 20:30: Uruguay - FranceGroup F - 14 June 2010, 20:30: Italy - ParaguayGroup C - 18 June 2010, 20:30: England - AlgeriaGroup G - 21 June 2010, 13:30: Portugal - North KoreaGroup E - 24 June 2010, 20:30: Cameroon - Netherlands Last 16: 29 June 2010, 20:30: 1st Group H - 2nd Group GQuarter final: 3 July 2010, 16:00: Winner last 16 3 - winner last 16 4Semi-final: 6 July 2010, 20:30: Winner quarter final 1 - winner quarter final 2

Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Eliz-abeth, Nelson-Mandela-Bay-stadiumGroup plays:Group B - 12 June 2010, 13:30: South Korea - GreeceGroup G - 15 June 2010, 16:00: Ivory coast - PortugalGroup D - 18 June 2010, 13:30: Germany - SerbiaGroup H - 21 June 2010, 16:00: Chile - SwitzerlandGroup C - 23 June 2010, 16:00: Slovenia - EnglandLast 16: 26 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group A - 2nd group B Quarter final: 2nd July 2010, 16:00: Winner last 16 5 - winner last 16 6 3rd rank play, 10 July 2010, 20:30: Loser semi-final 1 - loser semi-final 2

Mangaung/Bloemfontein, Free-State-stadiumGroup plays:Group E - 14 June 2010, 16:00: Japan - CameroonGroup B - 17 June 2010, 16:00: Greece - NigeriaGroup F - 20 June 2010, 13:30: Slovakia - ParaguayGroup A - 22 June 2010, 16:00: France - South AfricaGroup H - 25 June 2010, 20:30: Switzerland - HondurasLast 16: 27 June 2010, 16:00: 1st group D – 2nd group C

Rustenburg, Royal-Bafokeng-stadiumGroup plays: Group C - 12 June 2010, 20:30: England - USAGroup F - 15 June 2010, 13:30: New Zealand - SlovakiaGroup D - 19 June 2010, 16:00: Ghana - AustraliaGroup A - 22 June 2010, 16:00: Mexico - UruguayGroup E - 24 June 2010, 20:30: Denmark - JapanLast 1626 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group C - 2nd group D

Johannesburg, Soccer CityGroup playsGroup A - 11stJune 2010, 16:00: South Africa - MexicoGroup E - 14. June 2010, 13:30: Netherlands - DenmarkGroup B - 17. June 2010, 13:30: Argentina - South KoreaGroup G - 20. June 2010, 20:30: Brazil - Ivory coastGroup D - 23. June 2010, 20:30: Ghana - GermanyLast 16: 27 June 2010, 20:30: 1st group B - 2nd group A Quarter final: 2 July 2010, 20:30:

Source: Wikipedia

Source: Charles Heiman

Source: Wikimedia Commons/ Mad Simpson panoramio.com

Source: flickr Shine 2010 - 2010 World Cup



Source: ngrund/panoramio.com

Source: Wikipedia

Source: Bernard Shane Diaz

Source: Wikimedia Commons/Author=Floccus

6 June 2010

Qualification

Group 1 Matches W T L Goals Points

1 Denmark 10 6 3 1 16:5 21

2 Portugal 10 5 4 1 17:5 19

3 Sweden 10 5 3 2 13:5 18

4 Hungary 10 5 1 4 10:8 16

5 Albania 10 1 4 5 6:13 7

6 Malta 10 0 1 9 0:26 1


1 Switzerland 10 6 3 1 18:8 21

2 Greece 10 6 2 2 20:10 20

3 Latvia 10 5 2 3 18:15 17

4 Israel 10 4 4 2 20:10 16

5 Luxemburg 10 1 2 7 4:25 5

6 Moldavia 10 0 3 7 6:18 3


1 Slovakia 10 7 1 2 22:10 22

2 Slovenia 10 6 2 2 18:4 20

3 Czech Republic 10 4 4 2 17:6 16

4 Northern Ireland 10 4 3 3 13:9 15

5 Poland 10 3 2 5 19:14 11

6 San Marino 10 0 0 10 1:47 0


1 Germany 10 8 2 0 26:5 26

2 Russia 10 7 1 2 19:6 22

3 Finnland 10 5 3 2 14:14 18

4 Wales 10 4 0 6 9:12 12

5 Azerbaijan 10 1 2 7 4:14 5

6 Liechtenstein 10 0 2 8 2:23 2


1 Spain 10 10 0 0 28:5 30

2 Bosnia and H. 10 6 1 3 25:13 19

3 Turkey 10 4 3 3 13:10 15

4 Belgium 10 3 1 6 13:20 10

5 Estonia 10 2 2 6 9:24 8

6 Armenia 10 1 1 8 6:22 4


1 England 10 9 0 1 34:6 27

2 Ukraine 10 6 3 1 21:6 21

3 Croatia 10 6 2 2 19:13 20

4 Belarus 10 4 1 5 19:14 13

5 Kazakhstan 10 2 0 8 11:29 6

6 Andorra 10 0 0 10 3:39 0


1 Serbia 10 7 1 2 22:8 22

2 France 10 6 3 1 18:9 21

3 Austria 10 4 2 4 14:15 14

4 Lithuania 10 4 0 6 10:11 12

5 Rumania 10 3 3 4 12:18 12

6 Faroese 10 1 1 8 5:20 4


1 Italy 10 7 3 0 18:7 24

2 Ireland 10 4 6 0 12:8 18

3 Bulgaria 10 3 5 2 17:13 14

4 Cyprus 10 2 3 5 14:16 9

5 Montenegro 10 1 6 3 9:14 9

6 Georgia 10 0 3 7 7:19 3

Play-Offs (top 8 runners up)

Greece Ukraine 0:0

Ukraine Greece 0:1

Portugal Bosnia a.H. 1:0

Bosnia a.H. Portugal 0:1

Ireland France 0:1

France Ireland 1:1

Russia Slovenia 2:1

Slovenia Russia 1:0


1 Netherlands 8 8 0 0 17:2 24

2 Norway 8 2 4 2 9:7 10

3 Scotland 8 3 1 4 6:11 10

4 Mazedonia 8 2 1 5 5:11 7

5 Iceland 8 1 2 5 7:13 5

European zone/UEFA

7June 2010

Qualification

Matches W T L Goals Points

1 Brazil 18 9 7 2 33:11 34

2 Chile 18 10 3 5 32:22 33

3 Paraguay 18 10 3 5 24:16 33

4 Argentina 18 8 4 6 23:20 28

5 Uruguay 18 6 6 6 28:20 24

6 Ecuador 18 6 5 7 22:26 23

7 Colombia 18 6 5 7 14:18 23

8 Venezuela 18 6 4 8 23:29 22

9 Bolivia 18 4 3 11 22:36 15

10 Peru 18 3 4 11 11:34 13


1 Australia 8 6 2 0 12:1 20

2 Japan 8 4 3 1 11:6 15

3 Bahrain 8 3 1 4 6:8 10

4 Katar 8 1 3 4 5:14 6

5 Usbekistan 8 1 1 6 5:10 4


1 Cameroon 6 4 1 1 9:2 13

2 Gabun 6 3 0 3 9:7 9

3 Togo 6 2 2 2 3:7 8

4 Marocco 6 0 3 3 3:8 3


1 Nigeria 6 3 3 0 9:4 12

2 Tunesia 6 3 2 1 7:4 11

3 Mozambique 6 2 1 3 3:5 7

4 Kenya 6 1 0 5 5:11 3


1 Algeria 6 4 1 1 9:4 13

2 Egypt 6 4 1 1 9:4 13

3 Sambia 6 1 2 3 2:5 5

4 Rwanda 6 0 2 4 1:8 2


1 Ghana 6 4 1 1 9:3 13

2 Benin 6 3 1 2 6:6 10

3 Mali 6 2 3 1 8:7 9

4 Sudan 6 0 1 5 2:9 1

Group 5 Spiele S U N Tore Punkte

1 Ivory coast 6 5 1 0 19:4 16

2 Burkina Faso 6 4 0 2 10:11 12

3 Malawi 6 1 1 4 4:11 4

4 Guinea 6 1 0 5 7:14 3


1 New Zealand 6 5 0 1 14:5 15

2 New Caledonia 6 2 2 2 12:10 8

3 Fidji 6 2 1 3 8:11 7

4 Vanuatu 6 1 1 4 5:13 4


1 USA 10 6 2 2 19:13 20

2 Mexico 10 6 1 3 16:10 19

3 Honduras 10 5 1 4 17:11 16

4 Costa Rica 10 5 1 4 15:15 16

5 El Salvador 10 2 2 6 9:15 8

6 Trinidad a. Tobago 10 1 3 6 10:22 6


1 South Korea 8 4 4 0 12:4 16

2 North Korea 8 3 3 2 7:5 12

3 Saudi Arabia 8 3 3 2 8:8 12

4 Iran 8 2 5 1 8:7 11

5 UAE 8 0 1 7 6:17 1

Play-Offs (of thired ranked teams)

Bahrain Saudi Arabia 0:0

Saudi Arabia Bahrain 2:2

Entscheidungsspiel

Algeria Egypt 1:0

RelegationBahrain New Zealand 0:0

New Zealand Bahrain 1:0Costa Rica Uruguay 0:1

Uruguay Costa Rica 1:1

South American zone/CONMEBOL

North-/Central American and caribbean zone/CONCACAF*

Asian zone/AFC*

African zone/CAF*

Ozeanic zone/OFC*

* last round only * last round only

8 June 2010

0.2% 0.9% 3.6%

16.1%

36.7%

63.3%

0%

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South Africa

Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH


- = lowest third; + = highest third; o = middle third of participants; TOP = best participant; * RZB model calculation; ** highest odds available1-5: Assessment according to grades (1 = very good to 5 = insufficient)


Marques, defender for Barcelona, surely a good thing. Mixed performance so far; they did win the last two games against the USA, and they beat the European Champions Spain, remember? What does that tell us? Not much really, it sounds kind of good though, doesn’t it?

Home advantage, i.e. 12 players , unfortunately without a star if you don’t count their coach, Carlos Alberto Parreira, world champion with Brazil in 1994. Since he took over control there has only been one minor problem spoiling his party – the results were not too good. Could prove difficult with such a track record.

Group A

1.8% 3.3%9.0%

61.9%

38.1%35.0%

0%

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Mexico Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 1.8%Betting odds** 1:101Coach 3Goalkeeper 2Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 3

Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor TOPProbability for World Cup title* 0.2%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 1Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3

participants

9June 2010





8.0% 8.8%

59.9%

15.8%15.6%

84.2%

0%

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France

Without Zidane, his fantastic technique, great eye and precise passes, it will get difficult. We will have to see if Ribery can fill the huge gap left behind without copying his predecessor's head-banging technique in the final. Good chance for that as Materazzi will be throwing in vulgar remarks from the sidelines only. By the way, France lost to Austria in the qualifying match in Vienna – lookie, lookie.

Very balanced team with 6 victories, 6 draws and 6 losses in the qualification. Beat Costa Rica in the decisive qualifying match. Questionable if that is going to be enough to take home the grand prize.

Group A

Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:130Coach 3Goalkeeper 3Defense 2Midfield 3Offense 2

Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification oTeam market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 8.0%Betting odds** 1:19Coach 5Goalkeeper 1Defense 2Midfield 1Offense 3

0.0% 0.2% 1.0%

17.3%

5.4%

82.7%

0%

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Uruguay

participants

10 June 2010

0.8% 1.9%6.1%

58.0%

42.0%

25.3%

0%

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Nigeria

Six victories in six qualifying matches and coach Lars Lagerbaeck, with his typical Nigerian name, has a stunning record so far. But then again he has only been coach since February 2010 and there were not many games under him – so if you are looking for a hair in the soup ...

Lionel Messi. Any questions? Yes? OK. If he can keep his form from the season in Barcelona he will be hard to stop. But then again this will only work if another genius named Maradona does not use him as a goalkeeper. Given his track record as a coach we would not rule out such a move.

Group B

1.7% 3.2%8.3%

32.6%

67.8%

32.2%

0%

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Argentina





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 0.8%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 3

Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification -Team market value +Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 1.7%Betting odds** 1:8,5Coach 5Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 1

participants

11June 2010

Who is going to pay for the travel expenses? Can you sell the Cup? Maybe melt it down? Enough, we don’t want to mix football and finance. As second of their group they after all threw out the Ukraine in the decisive match. Now Rehakles and his men are supposed to put a smile back on the lips of their countrymen.

No stars known in Europe, not even any primadonnas, so what can we say. A fiery pair-up could be a match with the brothers from the north, but chances for such a game are rather slim as it could happen no earlier than the quarter finals.

Group B

0.4% 0.9%4.2%

18.6%

47.7%52.3%

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Greece




Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.4%Betting odds** 1:201Coach 2Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3

Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:301Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 2Offense 4

participants

0.1% 0.2% 1.2%7.0%

26.5%

73.5%

0%

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South Korea

12 June 2010

0.5% 1.4%

49.5% 50.5%

5.0%

16.9%

0%

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USA

Finished the qualifying group with Mexico as first, that’s not bad. No big names but that doesn’t have to be a problem. They also ended Spain’s winning streak in the Confederations Cup 2009. Therefore there seems to be potential to at least survive the group phase.

If you believe market value, a successful team with strong players. Pity that ex-captain John Terry got the one-on-one a bit wrong and now there is another captain. Fabio Capello really had to get order back into the team. Even without David Beckham they should have a strong chance for the title if they can avoid shooting penalties with the Germans.

Group C

17.3%9.1%

14.1%10.9%

61.7%

90.9%

0%

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England





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking +World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.5%Betting odds** 1:81Coach 3Goalkeeper 2Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3

Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification +Team market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 14.1%Betting odds** 1:8Coach 1Goalkeeper 3Defense 2Midfield 2Offense 2

participants

13June 2010

One of the big surprises in qualification. First they ended up second in a group with Northern Ireland, Poland and the Czech Republic, then they eliminated Russia in the decisive last game. A team without big names that has potential. In this group they surely stand a chance.

Qualification brought a rather mixed picture concerning results. In the Africa Cup the semi-final was the end of the road as they lost to Egypt. Currently 30th in the FIFA world ranking, but this doesn’t really help us in the assessment of the team.

Group C





Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:401Coach 3Goalkeeper 1Defense 3Midfield 4Offense 3

Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.2%Betting odds** 1:501Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 3Midfield 3Offense 4

participants

0.1% 0.1%

77.2%

1.1%4.9%

22.8%

0%

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Slovenia

0.2% 0.9% 2.8%

10.6%

36.8%

63.2%

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Algeria

14 June 2010

0.4% 0.9%

11.3%

31.4%

68.6%

3.3%0%

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Australia

0.4% 0.9999999999%%%%%%%%%%%%%

11.3%

31.4%

68.6%

3.3%

15.4%10.3%

19.0%

61.1%

86.1%

13.9%

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Germany

They are actually playing down under and survived the last group qualifying round without losing a game, even leaving the proud samurais from Japan in their wake. We can’t tell if it was the Fosters, the Dutch coach or the largely unknown players that made this possible. We also cannot judge whether playing on the southern hemis-phere will give them some kind of advantage.

The strikers are hardly striking, Podolski and Klose together managed to score five times during the entire 2009/2010 bundesliga season. No, that is not a typing error, it was not 50, but 5 (!) goals. Let's wait and see if Jogi is truly a bear or if he eventually ends up as a cartoon during the World Championship. As a tournament team Germany has managed to surprise in the past.

Group D





Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification +Team market value -Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.4%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 2Goalkeeper 2Defense 3Midfield 3Offense 4

Analysis


participants

15June 2010

0.5% 1.2% 4.4%

14.1%

36.2%

63.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wor

ldC

ham

pion

WC

fina

list

Petit

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K.O

. in

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tage

Ghana

Mickael Essien, star from Chelsea and head of the team. In the qualification it was a close race as three of four teams ended up with 12 points. The group victory was hanging by a thin goal-difference thread. In the Africa-Cup they made it into the finals.

Besides Slovakia and Slovenia the third team from CEE that made it to South Africa. Names like Nemanja Vidic, Stankovic, Krasic and Ivanovic are surely top. This was seen in the group phase, where not only average teams like France or Romania were left behind, but also top class opponents like Austria.

Group D





Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value -Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 0.5%Betting odds** 1:81Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 4Midfield 2Offense 4

Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification +Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 1.1%Betting odds** 1:67Coach 1Goalkeeper 4Defense 2Midfield 2Offense 3

participants

1.1% 2.3%

19.5%

5.6%

53.7%46.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Wor

ldC

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list

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K.O

. in

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Serbia

16 June 2010

9.5%

58.3%

16.8%11.3%

14.6%

83.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Wor

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Take a look at the group phase where Denmark left Portugal and Sweden behind them! Even after looking twice we found no real stand-out superstar. This seems to prove once again that eleven workers can perform better than eleven bosses.

Robben and Sneijder have really been on fire since their departure from Real Madrid and managed to play the Champions League Final without their former employer. They not only played well for their clubs but also for the national team. Eight victories in eight matches - that makes them a top candidate for the title. Maybe this time the tulips will finally come home with the cup instead of old Gouda.

Group E

0.3% 1.0% 2.6%

12.9%

34.5%

65.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Wor

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ham

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Denmark

Netherlands





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.3%Betting odds** 1:151Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 2Midfield 3Offense 4

Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification TOPTeam market value +Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 11.3%Betting odds** 1:13Coach 3Goalkeeper 3Defense 2Midfield 1Offense 2

participants

17June 2010

1.7%

28.1%

42.8%

57.2%

6.6%3.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wor

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ham

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WC

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list

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. in

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Cameroon

Geographically closest to South Africa. Then again that is still 3000 km as the crow flies and that, to us, does not confer a home advantage. Star of the team is Samuel Eto’o; during the Africa-Cup they lost to the cup winners Egypt in the quarter finals.

Group-Harakiri can be postponed as qualification was managed (they left behind Bahrain, Qatar and Uzbekis-tan). Unlike in other cases, it could be a positive thing if the gas pedal jammed this time during the tournament.

Group E

0.1% 0.5% 1.7%8.4%

74.9%

25.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Wor

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ham

pion

WC

fina

list

Petit

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K.O

. in

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tage

Japan





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 1.7%Betting odds** 1:126Coach 2Goalkeeper 2Defense 3Midfield 3Offense 2

Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:401Coach 4Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4

participants

18 June 2010

0.1% 0.3% 1.7%

8.9%

36.2%

63.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wor

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WC

fina

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. in

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Paraguay

6.3%12.0% 10.1%13.8%

62.5%

93.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wor

ldC

ham

pion

WC

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Italy

Came ahead of Argentina in their group. They also have an Argentinean coach, but as long as it is not Ma-radona that does not have to be a bad sign. Looking at the FIFA ranking they are at the lower quarter of the championship participants. We still reckon they stand a good chance of surviving the group stage.

The title defender, fifth in the FIFA ranking, an experienced team, good tacticians, know how to make strong cement. Nevertheless, it will be a hard task to defend the title. In the group phase they lost no game under their coach Marcello Lippi. Neither Zidane nor Materazzi are going to play so they will have to sort out their differences behind the cameras. However, time and location of that match had not yet reached us by the time of publication.

Group F





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.1%Betting odds** 1:81Coach 4Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 4Offense 2

Analysis


participants

19June 2010

0.5% 1.2%4.1%

18.6%

45.1%

54.9%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Wor

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Slovakia

Group winners in a group that cannot be called easy. Still only ranking 34th in the FIFA list. Obviously the group phase went well. The most expensive player according to our data is Marek Hamsik from SSC Napoli. Perhaps we will know more about this young man after the championship, as for now, we don’t.

Beating a couple of small islands in the qualification round was not the greatest task. At the end they beat Bah-rain in the decisive match. In our opinion this does not make them top favorite for the title. Taking a look at the players market value they end up just north of North Korea – that doesn’t really make it any better.

Group F

0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.2%

15.2%

84.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Wor

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. in

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New Zealand





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking -World Cup qualification +Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.5%Betting odds** 1:401Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4

Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification +Team market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:3001Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 3Midfield 4Offense 4

participants

20 June 2010

There will certainly be no lack of effort or willingness to run for fear of disappointing the beloved great leader. The fear of having to go back home early can give the extra air that may be required. The players are probably truly hungry, not only for success. We will see whether they will be able to make a revolution. Taking FIFA ranking they are last and in market value of the players they are truly anti-capitalist.

Number one in the FIFA rankings. Samba, great football, oh how we admire the football they play. Not part of the team anymore due to his age, and probably to a larger extent his weight, is Ronaldo, who has in previous championships literally rolled over the defensive lines. In any case it is one of the big teams that one has to beat on the way to the cup.

Group G

8.1% 8.2%

50.8%

17.4%13.0%

82.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Wor

ldC

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pion

WC

fina

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Fina

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K.O

. in

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Brazil

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%

99.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wor

ldC

ham

pion

WC

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list

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K.O

. in

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North Korea





Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:2001Coach 5Goalkeeper 5Defense 5Midfield 5Offense 4

Analysis

Tournament strength TOPFIFA ranking TOPWorld Cup qualification -Team market value +Fan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 8.1%Betting odds** 1:6Coach 3Goalkeeper 1Defense 2Midfield 2Offense 2

participants

21June 2010

1.6% 2.8%

58.9%

41.1%

25.2%

6.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wor

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Portugal

With a serious level of pride, and in the case of some of their superstars with a lot of styling gel, they once again attempt to gain a major title. The potential is certainly there but as of today the realization of the whole thing leaves room for improvement. Remember the qualifying where they let Denmark go first.

The team built around superstar Didier Drogba and the experienced coach Sven-Goeran Eriksson (who is also well known for his off the field playing) probably has the most difficult group of the tournament. It should be a hard task but if they play the man marking as he has shown them (this time on the field) we are in for some exciting matches.

Group G

1.5% 2.6%

58.0%

42.0%

5.8%

24.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wor

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pion

WC

fina

list

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. in

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Ivory Coast





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking +World Cup qualification -Team market value +Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 1.6%Betting odds** 1:29Coach 2Goalkeeper 4Defense 2Midfield 3Offense 1

Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification +Team market value +Fan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 1,5 %Betting odds** 1:34Coach 2Goalkeeper 4Defense 3Midfield 2Offense 2

participants

22 June 2010

16.4%7.8%

63.2%

13.9%10.3%

92.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wor

ldC

ham

pion

WC

fina

list

Petit

e fin

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Fina

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Fina

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K.O

. in

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tage

0.7% 1.7%4.8%

19.8%

52.6%47.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Wor

ldC

ham

pion

WC

fina

list

Petit

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Fina

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. in

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Switzerland

Spain

Qualification was managed without any problem, even though the group was not really deadly. But then again you have to beat the small teams first, and that is not always a done deal – we Austrians can tell of that …. a true Faroese-Tale. Coach is Ottmar Hitzfeld, surely not the one who would be to blame in the case of early retirement as he has proven that he can win titles in the Champions League.

Ruling European champion, 15 wins in a row, 35 games without a loss – until the US boys ended their series. In former World Championships their level of homesickness was fairly high and a fourth place was the height of their achievements. Maybe this time they will manage to break the spell, the potential is there.

Group H





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification oTeam market value oFan factor oProbability for World Cup title* 0.7%Betting odds** 1:201Coach 1Goalkeeper 1Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4

Analysis

Tournament strength +FIFA ranking +World Cup qualification TOPTeam market value TOPFan factor +Probability for World Cup title* 16.4%Betting odds** 1:5,5Coach 1Goalkeeper 1Defense 2Midfield 1Offense 1

participants

23June 2010

0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

89.0%

11.0%1.6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Wor

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Honduras

Second in the South America group just behind the mighty Brazilians. Combined with a remarkable 18th spot in the FIFA ranking. In any case the altitudes at which some matches are being played in South Africa should not worry the players from the Andes.

In the first group phase they ended up in front of Mexico, in the second group phase they ended up behind Mexico. They played Mexico four times, lost twice and won twice. In the FIFA ranking they are 38th and well behind Mexico. But enough of the comparison with Mexico, they have a Columbian coach.

Group H

0.4% 1.0% 3.5%

14.5%

55.8%

44.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Wor

ldC

ham

pion

WC

fina

list

Petit

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K.O

. in

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Chile





Analysis

Tournament strength oFIFA ranking oWorld Cup qualification -Team market value oFan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.4%Betting odds** 1:67Coach 3Goalkeeper 4Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 3

Analysis

Tournament strength -FIFA ranking -World Cup qualification -Team market value -Fan factor -Probability for World Cup title* 0.0%Betting odds** 1:1001Coach 4Goalkeeper 5Defense 4Midfield 3Offense 4

participants

24 June 2010

Overview of participants

Participations in a World Cup

WC titles

Best result in a World Cup

WC games

Average points per

game

Market value of team in

EUR

Average value per player in

EURFIFA

ranking

South Africa 2 0 First round (1998, 2002) 6 1.00 32,750,000 1,091,667 83

Mexico 13 0 Quarter final (1970, 1986) 45 0.96 93,050,000 3,578,846 17

Uruguay 10 2 World Champion (1930, 1950) 40 1.49 137,200,000 5,276,923 16

France 12 1 World Champion (1998) 51 1.74 427,700,000 14,256,667 9

Argentina 14 2 World Champion (1978, 1986) 65 1.80 388,300,000 12,943,333 7

Nigeria 3 0 Last 16 (1994, 1998) 11 1.18 132,800,000 4,426,667 21

South Korea 7 0 Vierter (2002) 24 0.91 52,200,000 1,740,000 47

Greece 1 0 First round (1994) 3 0.00 100,900,000 3,363,333 13

England 12 1 World Champion (1966) 55 1.65 541,500,000 18,050,000 8

USA 8 0 Third (1930) 25 0.84 61,700,000 2,056,667 14

Algeria 2 0 First round (1982, 1986) 6 1.17 51,700,000 2,068,000 30

Slovenia 1 0 First round (2002) 3 0.00 48,150,000 1,605,000 25

Germany 16 3 World Champion (1954, 1974, 1990) 92 2.07 359,000,000 11,218,750 6

Australia 2 0 Last 16 (2006) 7 0.83 76,175,000 2,457,258 20

Serbia* 0 0 - 0 204,450,000 7,050,000 15

Ghana 1 0 Last 16 (2006) 4 1.50 103,200,000 3,440,000 32

Netherlands 8 0 Second (1974 und 1978) 36 1.58 285,050,000 9,501,667 4

Denmark 3 0 Quarter final (1998) 13 1.77 98,500,000 3,283,333 36

Japan 3 0 Last 16 (2002) 10 0.80 87,750,000 2,925,000 45

Cameroon 5 0 Quarter final (1990) 17 1.12 152,000,000 5,066,667 19

Italy 16 4 World Champion (1934, 1938, 1982, 2006) 77 1.79 387,500,000 12,916,667 5

Paraguay 7 0 Last 16 (1986, 1998, 2002) 22 1.14 80,450,000 2,681,667 31

New Zealand 1 0 First round (1982) 3 0.00 13,475,000 449,167 78

Slovakia 0 0 - 0 87,800,000 3,027,586 34

Ivory Coast 1 0 First round (2006) 3 1.00 198,975,000 6,632,500 27

Portugal 4 0 Third (1966) 19 2.00 287,400,000 11,975,000 3

Brazil 18 5 World Champion (1958, 1962, 1970, 1994, 2002) 92 2.27 353,100,000 15,352,174 1

North Korea 1 0 Quarter final (1966) 4 1.00 10,350,000 345,000 105

Honduras 1 0 Group stage (1982) 3 0.67 48,650,000 1,621,667 38

Chile 7 0 Third (1962) 25 1.08 95,675,000 3,189,167 18

Spain 12 0 Fourth (1950) 49 1.59 729,500,000 24,316,667 2

Switzerland 9 0 Quarter final (1934, 1938, 1954) 26 1.08 104,250,000 4,532,609 24

* without Jugoslavia and Serbia MontenegroSource: www.transfermarkt.de, Wikipedia

25June 2010

Quotes

Ruud Gullit: We must have had 99% of the game. It was the other 3% that cost us the match.

Ian Rush: I couldn’t settle in Italy. It was like living in a foreign country.

Glenn Hoddle: Michael Owen is a goalscorer; not a natural born, not yet; that takes time.

Reporter: Gordon, can we have a quick word please?”Gordon Strachan: Velocity (walks off)

Georg Best: In 1969 I gave up women and alcohol; it was the worst 20 minutes of my life.

Paul Gascoigne: I never make predictions and I never will.

Alan Shearer: One accusation you can’t throw at me is that I’ve always done my best.

Ronaldo: We lost because we didn’t win.

Gary Lineker: There’s no in between you’re either good or bad… We were in between.

Mark Viduka: I would not be bothered if we lost every game as long as we won the league.

Mark Draper: I’d like to play for an Italian club like Barcelona.

Terry Venables: If history repeats itself, I should think we can expect the same thing.

Ron Atkinson: I would not say he is the best left winger in the Pre-

miership, but there are none better.

Bobby Robson: We didn’t underestimate them. They were a lot better than we

thought.

Schillaci: I dedicate that goal in particular to everyone.

Andy Gray: It’s one of the greatest goals ever, but I’m surprised that people are talking

about it being the goal of the season.

Mark Lawrenson: Mick McCarthy will have to re-place Cascarino because he’s quickly running out of legs.

Graeme Souness: Today’s top players only want to play in London or for Manchester United. That’s what happened when I tried to sign Alan Shearer and he went to Blackburn.

Stunning soccer quotes

26 June 2010

Match schedule

Group A South Africa Mexico

:Johannesburg, 11 June 16:00 Uruguay France

:Cape Town, 11 June 20:30 South Africa Uruguay

:Tshwane/Pretoria, 16/06 20:30 France Mexico

:Polokwane, 17 June 20:30Mexico Uruguay

:Rustenburg, 22 June 16:00 France South Africa

:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 22 June 16:00

Group B Argentina Nigeria

:Johannesburg, 12 June 16:00 South Korea Greece

:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 12 June 13:30 Greece Nigeria

:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 17 June 16:00 Argentina South Korea

:Johannesburg, 17 June 13:30 Nigeria South Korea

:Durban, 22 June 20:30 Greece Argentina

:Polokwane, 22 June 20:30

Group C England USA

:Rustenburg, 12 June 20:30 Algeria Slovenia

:Polokwane, 13 June 13:30 Slovenia USA

:Johannesburg, 18 June 16:00England Algeria

:Cape Town, 18 June 20:30 Slovenia England

:Nelson Madela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 23 June 16:00 USA Algeria

:Tshwane/Pretoria, 23 June 16:00

Group D Germany Australia

:Durban, 13 June 20:30 Serbia Ghana

:Tshwane/Pretoria, 13 June 16:00 Germany Serbia

:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 18 June 13:30 Ghana Australia

:Rustenburg, 19 June 16:00 Ghana Germany

:Johannesburg, 23 June 20:30 Australia Serbia

:Nelspruit, 23 June 20:30

Group E Netherlands Denmark

:Johannesburg, 14 June 13:30 Japan Cameroon

:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 14 June 16:00 Netherlands Japan

:Durban, 19 June 13:30 Cameroon Denmark

:Tshwane/Pretoria, 19 June 20:30 Denmark Japan

:Rustenburg, 24 June 20:30 Cameroon Netherlands

:Cape Town, 24 June 20:30

Group F Italy Paraguay

:Cape Town, 14 June 20:30 New Zealand Slovakia

:Rustenburg, 15 June 13:30 Slovakia Paraguay

:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 20 June 13:30 Italy New Zealand

:Nelspruit, 20 June 16:00 Slovakia Italy

:Johannesburg, 24 June 16:00 Paraguay New Zealand

:Polokwane, 24 June 16:00

Group G Ivory Coast Portugal

:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 15 June 16:00 Brazil North Korea

:Johannesburg, 15 June 20:30 Brazil Ivory Coast

:Johannesburg, 20 June 20:30 Portugal North Korea

:Cape Town, 21 June 13:30 Portugal Brazil

:Durban, 25 June 16:00 North Korea Ivory Coast

:Nelspruit, 24 June 16:00

Group H Honduras Chile

:Nelspruit, 16 June 13:30 Spain Switzerland

:Durban, 16 June 16:00 Chile Switzerland

:Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 21 June 16:00 Spain Honduras

:Johannesburg, 21 June 20:30 Chile Spain

:Tshwane/Pretoria, 25 June 20:30 Switzerland Honduras

:Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 25 June 20:30

27June 2010

Match schedule

Roun

d of

16

-:

Win

ner g

roup

A -

seco

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BN

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26

June

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02

July

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06

July

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Dur

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07

July

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-:

Win

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July

20:

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-:

Win

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B -

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28 June 2010

WC Quiz

1 How many World Championships have taken place in Africa before?

a) oneb) twoc) threed) none

2 Where is the final of the World Championship going to be played?

a) Durbanb) Cape Townc) Johannesburgd) Atlantis

3 Who scored the so called Wembley-goal at the World Championship final 1966 between Eng-land and Germany?

a) Johan Cruyffb) Geoff Hurstc) Bobby Robsond) Gerd Müller

4 How many times has a hosting nation won the World Championship?

a) twiceb) four timesc) six timesd) eight times

5 How many times could a reigning World Cham-pion defend his title?

a) onceb) twicec) three timesd) four times

6 Who is the top scorer in World Championship history with all together 15 goals scored?

a) Ronaldo (BRA)b) Gerd Müller (GER)c) Just Fontaine (FRA)d) Gabriel Batistuta (ARG)

7 Who won the first World Championship title in 1930?

a) Brazilb) Hungaryc) Franced) Uruguay

8 The qualification match between Australia and American Samoa for the 2002 World Champi-onship ended with the biggest defeat of a natio-nal team in history. How did the game end?

a) 0:31b) 2:13c) 0:16d) 1:17

9 Who missed the decisive last penalty at penalty shootout during the 1994 World Championship final?

a) Tino Knoffb) Roberto Baggioc) Carlos Dungad) Franco Baresi

10 How many visitors on average saw the matches during the 1972 World Championship in the Soviet Union?

a) 3.6 millionb) 2.1 millionc) Noned) 1.5 million

11 How many nations where able to win the World Championship up until now?

a) 9b) 6c) 8d) 7

12 In which game of the final round in a World Championship where the most goals scored?

a) Austria – Switzerlandb) Hungary – El Salvadorc) France – Paraguayd) Germany – Timbuktu

13 Why was the French player Zinedine Zidane sent off during the World Championship final 2006?

a) He pulled down the trouser of the refereeb) He attacked his opponent with a head-buttc) He insulted the opponent with his middle fingerd) He spat at Rudi Völler

29June 2010

WC Quiz

21 Which of the following players is taking part in the 2010 World Championship?

a) Fabio Grossob) Francesco Tottoc) Luca Tonid) Fabio Cannavaro

22 Which national team shot the most goals during the qualification for the 2010 World Championship?

a) Mexicob) Germanyc) Englandd) Netherlands

23 Who is record holder in World Championship titles?

a) Italyb) Germanyc) Argentinad) Brazil

24 How many teams are participating in the 2010 World Championship?

a) 32b) 50c) 16d) 24

25 Which teams played the first ever final in 1930?a) Germany – Portugalb) Brazil – Uruguayc) Brazil – Italyd) Uruguay – Argentina

answers on page 33

14 What do the championship contestants USA and the Netherlands have in common during the 2010 World Championship?

a) For both countries it is the 9th participation in a world championshipb) They both have a dutch coachc) They both play in Group Cd) They both never played at a world champion-ship before

15 Zakumi the World Championship mascot is what kind of animal?

a) Cheetahb) Leopardc) Liond) Ape

16 Which national team never reached a World Championship final?

a) Spainb) Swedenc) Uruguayd) Former Soviet Union

17 Which nation participated in a World Champi-onship for the first time in 1950?

a) Austriab) Columbiac) Englandd) Egypt

18 Which award is not being given after a World Championship?

a) Most entertaining teamb) Best young playerc) Best old playerd) Fairest team

19 During the 2002 World Championship in Japan and South Korea, which team shot the “golden goal” in the 116th minute to go on into the quarter final?

a) Italyb) South Koreac) Japand) Brazil

20 Which of the four teams is the most successful in the combined World Championship table?

a) Austriab) Polandc) Portugald) Croatia

30 June 2010

Model

The model

Model calculation

The recent rise in wild price jumps on the financial markets has made it completely apparent that see-mingly impossible events can have a lasting impact on the bigger picture. For instance, if we were to take away the S&P 500 stock index’s five largest daily losses since the beginning of 1964, the index would be at roughly 81% higher than its current stan-ding. Although this realisation has led some market participants to revise their strategies, it has always been an essential part of every football and sport enthusiast’s motto: Anything is possible (in sport)!Therefore, a simple comparison of various teams’ strength is not enough to determine their chances of winning the 2010 Football World Cup. In a complex system comprising group and knockout phases, like the 2010 FIFA World Cup, chance plays a decisive role. For teams that are similar in terms of perfor-mance, each team’s form on the day of the match can determine the winner and loser. In a penalty shoo-tout, “chance” – i.e. which corner the shooter choo-ses and which direction the goalie goes – plays an even greater role than attributes such as endurance and a deep understanding of the game, which are otherwise so important. Another essential factor in determining a team’s potential is its starting position in the tournament. If a team with average strength is up against weak opponents, it has the potential to go far in the tournament. And if this sort of underdog is in form and enjoys a bit of luck (or its opponent has a sudden moment of weakness), it could even ma-nage to make it all the way to the World Cup finals. We apply a method of risk analysis to determine the participating teams’ chances of winning the coveted World Cup in 2010.

The indicators

Our calculation of each team’s probability of delive-ring strong performance at the 2010 FIFA World Cup involves two stages. First, we use several quantitative factors to determine an indicator of the strength of the teams from all the participating countries. To do this, we combine the following factors:

Tournament strength: How well each team has per-formed in the World Cup since 1930 can be de-termined by looking at each team’s rankings in the historical tables for all FIFA Football World Cups.

team strength

uncertainty

probability distribution

for performance

contender quality

constitution of the day

FIFA ranking

penalty shootout at similar strength

World Cup qualificationmarket value

of players

fan support

Model calculation

group stage & tournament

simu lation of 10.000

World Champion-

ships


31June 2010

Model

FIFA ranking: The FIFA ranking from 28 April 2010 represents the current strength of the nati-onal teams. The ranking takes into account each A-team’s international matches over the last four years, with the results from last year weighted at 50% in the ranking. Results from three to four years ago only have a 10% weighting in the ranking, and matches that took place before that are igno-red completely.

World Cup qualifications: How well a team does in the World Cup qualifications not only represents the team’s current strength but also serves as an indicator of its momentum and as a sign of high self-confidence. For our calculation, we use the number of wins during the World Cup qualifica-tions. One disadvantage of this method is that we ignore the differences in performance between the individual groups in the qualifications.

Market value of players: The value of a player on the transfer market is based not only on the player’s current strength but also on his potential. So this in-dicator allows us not only to identify strong teams but also to reflect each team’s potential. Players with a high market value also have international experience, so they should be able to deal with the exceptional circumstances of a Football World Cup better than a relatively unknown newcomer.

Fan factor: The 12th man plays a very decisive role, particularly during large tournaments. In or-der to calculate the fan factor, we determine the financial potential of the fans travelling to South Africa to support their teams there. For this, we looked at the most affordable flights between each participating country’s capital and Cape Town in relation to the country’s GDP. Since it is by far the cheapest for South Africans to “travel” to Cape Town, this indicator also represents the home field advantage.

The World Cup simulation

In order to combine the five indicators into a measure of strength, we transform the data series to make the various scales comparable. For ranking lists (FIFA ran-king and tournament strength), first we take the square root. As a result, the difference between 20th and 21st place is less substantial than the difference bet-ween first and second. Then we standardise all of the indicators by subtracting the sample mean from each data point and dividing the difference by the sample standard distribution. This results in indicators centred around zero with comparable standard deviation. We add the individual components with the same weigh-

Spain 16.4%

Germany 15.4%

England 14.1%

Italy12.0%

Neatherlands 11.3%

Brazil 8.1%

France 8.0%

Others 14.8%

Chances of winning


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

Spai

n

Ger

man

y

Engl

and

Italy

Net

herla

nds

Braz

il

Fran

ce

Model estimate Bookmaker's odds

Results

Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH, wettbasis.com


Our dream team

Benaglio

PuyolVidic Maicon

Xavi Schweinsteiger

RobbenMessiC. Ronaldo

Lahm

Villa

32 June 2010

Model

ting to come up with an indicator for team strength. We are aware, for instance, that a team’s tournament strength is not as crucial as its current strength when it comes to winning the World Cup. However, since our strength indicator contains the teams’ FIFA ranking, the market value of their players and their performance in the qualification rounds – three factors representing current strength – this aspect is overweighted in rela-tion to the other factors. The final result is a factor on a scale of 0 to 100 that indicates each team’s strength.In the second stage, we simulate the course of the Football World Cup as a whole, comprising the group phase and the knockout phase. A “match” involving two teams is simply a comparison of both teams’ strength (indicator). If a team is 10% better than its op-ponent (its indicator is 10% higher), it wins the match. If neither of the teams is at least 10% better than the other, the match in the group phase ends in a draw in our simulation. Starting with the last 16, matches where both teams have a similar level of strength end in a penalty shootout, and pure chance determines the winner and loser.In order to take the element of chance into account, we add an error term to each team’s strength indica-tor for each individual match. This error term can be interpreted as the team’s form on the day of the match and is uniformly distributed between -50 and 50. In other words, it is possible, though highly unlikely, that the worst team on a good day (0+50) could be equal to the best team on a bad day (100-50). After the group phase, the top two teams from each of the eight groups enter the knockout phase. If there is a tie on the points table, the winner is decided by a drawing of lots.Now we can run through the 2010 Football World Cup using a Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation relies on the fact that each team’s form can vary on each match day, so things can change around comple-tely in each of our World Cup simulations. We simula-ted the 2010 FIFA World Cup a total of 10,000 times. The relative frequency of each team’s rankings (how many times out of 10,000 each team won the World Cup) provides a probability distribution for how the participating teams will perform. The great advantage of this method is that we compare not only the strength of the various teams but also their starting positions in the tournament. A team with relatively weak oppo-nents in the group phase or with relatively weak oppo-nents at the beginning of the knockout phase undoub-tedly has better chances of winning than a team that faces a bumpy road to make it through the group and knockout phases. Since we simulated the World Cup

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

USA

Sout

h Ko

rea

Alg

eria

Hon

dura

s

Slov

enia

Sout

h A

frica

New

Zea

land

Nor

th K

orea

The bargain buys (EUR mn)

Source: www.transfermarkt.de

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Spai

n

Engl

and

Fran

ce

Arg

entin

a

Italy

Ger

man

y

Braz

il

Portu

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The most expensive teams (EUR mn)


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Net

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Serb

ia

Ivor

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Cam

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Gha

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Less expensive teams (EUR mn)


33June 2010

Model

10,000 times, the effects of the group composition are taken into account.

Results

The results of our Monte Carlo simulation show a clear dominance on the part of the European teams. With a 16.4% chance of winning, Spain is just ahead of Germany (15.4%) in the battle for the 2010 World Cup. The decisive factors in this were the Spa-nish team’s strength in the World Cup qualifications and the high market value of its ace footballers. The Brazilian Seleção came in sixth, with a mere 8.1% chance of winning against the other contenders. In particular, the team’s lack of self-confidence resulting from its relatively weak performance in the qualifica-tions and the low fan factor due to the high expense of travelling from Brazil to South Africa could have a negative impact on the Samba Kings. The traditio-nal football nations may be facing off against each other in the end. According to our simulation, there is an 85% chance that one of the contenders from the extended circle of favourites – Spain, Germany, Eng-land, Italy, the Netherlands, Brazil and France – will win the championship. Mexico’s chances of winning, at just under 2%, make it the most promising dark horse.Bookies usually select odds in a way that allows them to balance out the winnings they have to pay out in all possible cases. In this respect, betting odds can be seen as the market’s view on the probability of a team winning the World Cup. In comparison to the probabilities calculated by us, there are two great outliers. The relatively weak group phase and the weak support expected from the fans have (still) not had an effect on the betting odds. Behind Spain, Bra-zil is seen as the top contender on the market. How-ever, we believe that the Brazilian team is overrated and that it does not offer enough potential of winning the championship. In contrast, Germany was strong during the qualifications and can count on a great deal of support from its fans. Based on our calculati-ons, betting on Germany to win the World Cup offers relatively favourable odds.

Quiz answers

1 d) 2010 World Championship will be the first in Africa.

2 c) The final is going to be played in Johannesburg (Soc-cer City).

3 b) The Wembley-goal was scored by Geoff Hurst.

4 c) Six times: Uruguay (1930), Italy (1934), England (1966), Germany (1974), Argentina (1978), France (1998)

5 c) Twice: Italy (1938), Brazil (1962)

6 a) Ronaldo

7 d) Uruguay won the first World Championship in 1930.

8 a) Australia won by 31:0.

9 b) Roberto Baggio

10 c) In 1972 no World Championship was played in the Soviet Union.

11 d) Seven: Brazil, Italy, France, Germany, Argentina, England and Uruguay

12 a) Austria won against Switzerland in the 1954 World Championship with 7:5.

13 b) He attacked an opponent with a head-butt.

14 a) The Netherlands and the USA are participating for the 9th time in a World Championship.

15 b) A leopard

16 a) Spain has never reached a Championship final.

17 c) England participated for the first time in 1950.

18 c) No award is being given for the “best old player”.

19 b) The Republic of Korea.

20 b) Poland (they rank 13th), followed by Croatia (16th), Austria (17th) and Portugal (19th)

21 d) Fabio Cannavaro

22 c) England scored 3.4 goals on average per game.

23 d) Brazil with 5 World Cup titles.

24 a) 32 teams are taking part.

25 d) Uruguay vs. Argentina

34 June 2010

Model results

Group A South Africa Mexico

1 : 2Johannesburg, 11 June 16:00 Uruguay France

0 : 2Cape Town, 11 June 20:30 South Africa Uruguay

1 : 0Tshwane/Pretoria, 16.06. 20:30 France Mexico

2 : 1Polokwane, 17 June 20:30Mexico Uruguay

1 : 0Rustenburg, 22 June 16:00 France South Africa

2 : 0Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 22 June 16:00

Group B Argentina Nigeria

2 : 1Johannesburg, 12 June 16:00 South Korea Greece

1 : 1Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 12 June 3:30 Greece Nigeria

1 : 3Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 17 June 16:00 Argentina South Korea

2 : 0Johannesburg, 17 June 13:30 Nigeria South Korea

0 : 0Durban, 22 June 20:30 Greece Argentina

0 : 2Polokwane, 22 June 20:30

Group C England USA

2 : 0Rustenburg, 12 June 20:30 Algeria Slovenia

1 : 1Polokwane, 13 June 13:30 Slovenia USA

0 : 1Johannesburg, 18 June 16:00England Algeria

3 : 0Cape Town, 18 June 20:30 Slovenia England

1 : 2Nelson Madela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 23.06. 16:00 USA Algeria

1 : 1Tshwane/Pretoria, 23 June 16:00

Group D Germany Australia

2 : 0Durban, 13 June 20:30 Serbia Ghana

1 : 0Tshwane/Pretoria, 13 June 16:00 Germany Serbia

1 : 1Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 18 June 13:30 Ghana Australia

0 : 0Rustenburg, 19 June 16:00 Ghana Germany

0 : 2Johannesburg, 23 June 20:30 Australia Serbia

0 : 2Nelspruit, 23 June 20:30

Group E Netherlands Denmark

2 : 0Johannesburg, 14 June 13:30 Japan Cameroon

1 : 2Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 14 June 16:00 Netherlands Japan

3 : 0Durban, 19 June 13:30 Cameroon Denmark

0 : 0Tshwane/Pretoria, 19 June 20:30 Denmark Japan

1 : 1Rustenburg, 24 June 20:30 Cameroon Netherlands

1 : 2Cape Town, 24 June 20:30

Group F Italy Paraguay

2 : 0Cape Town, 14 June 20:30 New Zealand Slovakia

0 : 3Rustenburg, 15 June 13:30 Slovakia Paraguay

1 : 0Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 20 June 13:30 Italy New Zealand

3 : 0Nelspruit, 20 June 16:00 Slovakia Italy

1 : 3Johannesburg, 24 June 16:00 Paraguay New Zealand

2 : 0Polokwane, 24 June 16:00

Group G Ivory Coast Portugal

2 : 2Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 15 June 16:00 Brazil North Korea

4 : 0Johannesburg, 15 June 20:30 Brazil Ivory Coast

1 : 0Johannesburg, 20 June 20:30 Portugal North Korea

3 : 0Cape Town, 21 June 13:30 Portugal Brazil

1 : 1Durban, 25 June 16:00 North Korea Ivory Coast

0 : 3Nelspruit, 24 June 16:00

Group H Honduras Chile

0 : 2Nelspruit, 16 June 13:30 Spain Switzerland

3 : 1Durban, 16 June 16:00 Chile Switzerland

1 : 1Nelson Mandela Bay/Port Elizabeth, 21 June 16:00 Spain Honduras

2 : 0Johannesburg, 21 June 20:30 Chile Spain

1 : 3Tshwane/Pretoria, 25 June 20:30 Switzerland Honduras

0 : 0Mangaung/Bloemfontein, 25 June 20:30

35June 2010

Model results

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36 June 2010

World Cup 2010

Raiffeisen RESEARCH Our Team

This report was completed on 26 May 2010

Acknowledgements:Editor: Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH, A-1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9, Telephone: +43 1 717 07-0, Telefax +43 1 717 07-1848

Published by: Raiffeisen RESEARCH GmbH, 1030 Vienna, Am Stadtpark 9. Published and manufactured in ViennaPrinted by Rabl Druck, 3493 SchremsDesign: Kathrin Korinek, Birgit Bachhofner

Head of Raiffeisen RESEARCH: Peter Brezinschek (1517)Analysts:Economics, Fixed Income, FX:Valentin Hofstätter (Leitung, 1685), Jörg Angelé (1687), Walter Demel (1526), Wolfgang Ernst (1500), Ingo Jungwirth (2139), Marcian Kopaczynski (1423), Julya Neudorfer (5842), Andreas Schwabe (1389), Gintaras Shlizhyus (1343), Gottfried Steindl (1523), Martin Stelzeneder (1614)

Credit/Corporate Bonds:Christoph Klaper (Leitung, 1652), Martin Kutny (2013), Doris Oswald (1631), Manuel Schreiber (3533), Gleb Shpilevoy (1461), Birgit Sigl (5892), Alexander Sklemin (1212), Beatrix Thaler (5924)

Stocks:Helge Rechberger (Leitung, 1533), Aaron Alber (1513), Christian Hinterwallner (1633), Jörn Lange (2163), Hannes Loacker (1885), Richard Malzer (5935), Johannes Mattner (1463), Christine Nowak (1625), Leopold Salcher (2176), Andreas Schiller (1358), Connie Schümann (2178), Magdalena Wasowicz (2169)

Quant Research/Emerging Markets:Veronika Lammer (Leitung, 3741), Lydia Kranner (1609), Nina Kukic (1635), Christian Link (1355), Andreas Reschreiter (1683), Josef Wolfesberger (1529)

Technical Analysis:Klemens Hrovath (1421), Robert Schittler (1537)

© Raiffeisen RESEARCH

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