workshop qa/qc 2-3 oct 2004 copenhagen comparing national ghg inventories with independent estimates...
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Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
Comparing National GHG Inventories with Independent Estimates Including Inverse Monitoring
Peter Bergamaschi, Frank Dentener, Adrian Leip, Frank Raes,
European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
VERIFICATION
• IPCC Good Practice Guidance, 2000 (Annex 2)
International verification of inventories may include:
– Comparison with international or independently compiled activity data,
emission factors, etc. (BOTTOM-UP)
– Comparison with atmosheric measurements at local, regional and
global scales (TOP-DOWN, Inverse Modelling)
• 2006 Guidelines, chapter on cross-cutting issues (in preparation)
– 2006 Guidelines will not be extremely different from GPG 2000
– GPG LULUCF is considered a further development and improvement
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Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
Soil data
ESB (European Soil Bureau), IES JRC
• 1:1,000,000
• Italy 1:250k SOC
Land cover
• CORINE
Meteo
• MARS unit (monitoring Agriculture with remote sensing)
Atmospheric N deposition:
• EMEP -
Crop Data
• Eurostat (Farm Structure Survey)
• Disaggregated to lower level
• ISTAT crop data NUTS level 3(Nomenclature of territorial Units for statistics)
Fertiliser application
• International Fertiliser Industry Association (IFA)
N2O emissions from soils in Europe1
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
N2O emissions from soils in Europe
4. Climate Change Scenario Analysis
Policy Support
4. Climate Change Scenario Analysis
Policy Support
1 Unit_ID 10012 NUT_ID IT1123 Nut_Name Torino4 Longitude 7.4832435 Latitude 45.21259
County Characteristics
1 Unit_ID 10012 Climate_file 450553 N_conc 0.95
Climate Details
1 Grid_ID 450552 Julian Day 13 Max Temp 4.74 Min Temp -0.75 Rainfall (cm) 0.1
Climate File
1 Unit_ID 10012 SOC 0.13234 Clay content 0.46 pH 7.38 BD 1.66
Soil Properties
1 Unit_ID 10012 Cropland 2582983 Sown area 2965064 Fertiliser T 172295 Fertiliser Kg Ha 66.76 Irrigation 0.47 Partition of Fert. *
Farming Management1. Harmonized European-wide Geographical
Database
1. Harmonized European-wide Geographical
Database
3. Results in a GIS3. Results in a GIS
2. Process Based Model
DNDC
2. Process Based Model
DNDC
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
+
Corn Durum wheat
Oats Rapeseed
Rice W Wheat
EU15 model unfcccAustria 3.3 5.7Belgium 10.4Denmark 30.3 16.8Finland 7.3 8.8France 165.0 174.3Germany 77.0 72.8Greece 19.0 8.1Ireland 19.6 9.6Italy 44.9 28.7Lux 0.5NL 24.8 17.1Portugal 7.2 4.4Spain 60.4 27.0Sweden 9.7UK 91.4 46.1
N2O direct emissions from soils in Europe
Gg N2O/yr1997
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
CH4 observations CH4 emissionstransport model
meteo a priori inventory
"big-region" inversion
Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions2
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
a priori / a posteriori emissions
Inverse Modelling study [Bergamaschi et al., 2004]
EU NIR a priori a posteriori
2003 2004 anthrop. natural total avg S1-S7 range anthr.
EU-15Germany 2.40 4.04 3.62 0.26 3.88 ± 0.64 4.20 ( 3.90 ... 4.87 ) 3.95Italy 1.73 1.69 2.06 -0.04 2.02 ± 0.40 2.14 ( 2.10 ... 2.17 ) 2.18France 3.08 3.01 2.68 -0.11 2.56 ± 0.42 4.38 ( 3.86 ... 4.71 ) 4.50BENELUX 1.49 1.42 1.31 0.15 1.47 ± 0.23 1.58 ( 1.35 ... 1.67 ) 1.43Austria 0.43 0.37 0.33 -0.01 0.32 ± 0.05 0.30 ( 0.28 ... 0.30 ) 0.31Spain 1.92 1.92 1.91 -0.06 1.84 ± 0.32 1.99 ( 1.96 ... 2.04 ) 2.06Portugal 0.51 0.38 0.39 -0.02 0.37 ± 0.08 0.38 ( 0.38 ... 0.39 ) 0.40United Kingdom 2.20 2.19 3.39 -0.04 3.35 ± 0.82 4.15 ( 3.91 ... 4.39 ) 4.19Ireland 0.60 0.60 0.66 -0.01 0.64 ± 0.12 0.36 ( 0.26 ... 0.75 ) 0.38Greece 0.53 0.53 0.42 -0.01 0.40 ± 0.07 0.40 ( 0.39 ... 0.40 ) 0.41Sweden 0.28 0.28 0.22 0.85 1.08 ± 0.44 0.93 ( 0.86 ... 0.99 )Finland 0.26 0.26 0.24 2.98 3.23 ± 1.36 0.36 ( -0.27 ... 1.30 )Denmark 0.27 0.28 0.34 -0.01 0.34 ± 0.06 0.33 ( 0.30 ... 0.34 ) 0.33Total EU-15 15.69 16.95 17.59 3.92 21.51 ± 1.92 21.52 ( 21.05 ... 22.03 ) 17.60
3.62 3.952.40 4.04
3.39 4.192.20 2.19
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
Conclusions: CH4 Inverse Modelling
• IM gives emissions consistent with atmospheric concentrations!
• IM suggests higher CH4 emissions (year 2001) for some major EU-15 emitters compared to UNFCCC values (EU NIR 2003):
Germany +65 %
France + 46 %
UK +91%
• EU NIR 2004: Revision of German emission:
• lower CH4 emissions from Finland (wetlands)
• EU-15 totals close to UNFCCC (10-30 %), but …
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
General Conclusions: Verification
• BOTTOM-UP and TOP-DOWN Verification is feasible, and in some cases gives results that are robust and can be compared with official NIR’s
• Verification is swhown to:- provide inputs to improve inventories- build confidence in emissions estimates and trends- help to improve scientific understanding related to emission inventories
(IPCC GPG 2000)
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
further European stations
complete set of stations ftp://ftp.ei.jrc.it/pub/bergamas/CH4BR/
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
• offline atmospheric transport model
• meteo from ECMWF
• global simulation 6o x 4o
• zooming 1o x 1o (Europe, …)
• http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/
atmospheric transport model TM5
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
CH4 observations CH4 emissionsInverse model
In situ measurements
satellite measurements
meteoBottom-up inventories
4D VAR data assimilation
"big-region" inversion
Inverse modelling of CH4 emissions
Workshop QA/QC 2-3 Oct 2004 Copenhagen
EU NIR 2004revision of German CH4 inventory
2.40 to 4.04 Tg CH4/yr (year 2001); revision of whole time series
• manure management (0.21 -> 1.31 Tg CH4/yr), mainly due to increased CH4 conversion factors from liquid manure management systems
• consideration of manure management systems by district
• incorporation of smaller Bundeslaender, which in previous reports had not been included