workshop om inddragelse af ny ter 2008 baltic nest institute, national environmental research...
TRANSCRIPT
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Baltic Nest Institute – Status and Progress
Baltic Nest Institute Department of Marine Ecology National Environmental Research Institute Aarhus University
www.balticnest.org
The Environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical projects -Copenhagen - 17 March 2008
Bo Riemann, NERI, AU
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Baltic Nest Institute
www.balticnest.org
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
HELCOM Action Plan – What’s next? List of Content:
• Research, monitoring, management and political decisions
• NERI – responsibilities and committments• Baltic Nest Institute (BNI) – Status• BNI progress and missing links• Approaching a decision-support system for
the Baltic Sea
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Seminar Copenhagen
• - The Environmental standing of the Baltic Sea: from political proposal to practical project,
• or (my words)
• from practical project to political decision
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
NERI Contribution
• NERI is part of University of Aarhus. NERI undertakes scientific consultancy work, monitoring of nature and the environment as well as applied and strategic research. NERI’s task is to establish a scientific foundation for environmental policy decisions.
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Status for BNI-DK• Danish BNI - start 1. September 2007,
includes 11 employees• BNI-DK is situated at NERI, Roskilde (dept. of
Marin Ecology) but involves also:– NERI, dept. of Atmospheric environment– NERI, dept. for Freshwater Ecology– NERI, dept. for System Analyses– DTU Aqua, (former DFU)– DMI, Center for ocean og is
• Funding from University of Aarhus for 4 years
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
BNI inheritance from MARE
Drainage basin modeling
Marine modeling
Marine and runoff data
Atmospheric emissions and load
Fishery management
Cost minimization model
NEST can be used freelywith any computer with Internet
access fromhttp://WWW.MARE.SU.SE
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
The integrated BNI model
Policymeasures& costs
Pressures/emissions
Atmosphere
Drainage basins
Coastalzone
Open Baltic Sea
Ecosystem effects
Ecosystem services and value
Fish/fisheries component
Net value of ecosystem changes
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
The integrated BNI model
Policymeasures& costs
Pressures/emissions
Atmosphere
Drainage basins
Coastalzone
Open Baltic Sea
Ecosystem effects
Ecosystem services and value
Fish/fisheries component
Net value of ecosystem changes
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Atmospheric N-transport using The DEHM model
The Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) is state-of-the-art atmospheric modelling and is applied in NOVANA, AMAP, and research projects
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Atmospheric N transport using The DEHM model
• Calculations of monthly depositions of different N-fractions to 13 areas used in the BALTSEM model with a resolution of 50 km x 50 km (1991-2006)
• The depositions will be available in the NEST system
• Depositions from 10 different sources:
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
The integrated BNI model
Policymeasures& costs
Pressures/emissions
Atmosphere
Drainage basins
Coastalzone
Open Baltic Sea
Ecosystem effects
Ecosystem services and value
Fish/fisheries component
Net value of ecosystem changes
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Drainage basin modelling
• Improve existing model (CSIM), through a dynamic calculation of nutrient retention in surface water (wetlands, rivers and lakes).
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Modelling loads of water and nutrients
• Detailed, dynamic process modelling of retention in surface water.
• Models to calculate loss of nutrients with high resolution.
• Combining detailed production data with a catalog of means to reduce losses of nutrients, inclusive costs
• Scenarios: Status quo vs. Implementation of WFD requirements and climate changes
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
The integrated BNI model
Policymeasures& costs
Pressures/emissions
Atmosphere
Drainage basins
Coastalzone
Open Baltic Sea
Ecosystem effects
Ecosystem services and value
Fish/fisheries component
Net value of ecosystem changes
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
BALTSEM model struktur• 13 sub-basins: Northern Kattegat, Central Kattegat,
southern Kattegat, Samsø Belt, Fehman Belt, Øresund, Arkona Basin, Bornholm Basin, Baltic Proper, Gulf of Riga, Gulf of Finland, Bothnian Sea, Bothnian bay.
• Coupling Physical and
biogeochemical Process: 17 state variables (14 in Pelagic layer
and 3 in sediment): nutrients (7), phytoplankton (3), zooplankton (1), detritus (3), oxygen, salinity and temperature
• Forcing functions: Temperature, wind, current
velocities, solar radiation, nutrients and etc.
• Spatiotemporal dynamic: seasonal (monthly), vertical and
horizontal distribution of species
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark(Savchuk, 2007)
(BALTSEM )
BALTSEM model structure
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Costal zone and open sea modelling
• Costal dynamic modelling (Warnemünde) will be integrated with BALTSEM and BNI’s Marine model
• Ensemble modelling is an integrated part of this
• Danish Straits
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
The integrated BNI model
Policymeasures& costs
Pressures/emissions
Atmosphere
Drainage basins
Coastalzone
Open Baltic Sea
Ecosystem effects
Ecosystem services and value
Fish/fisheries component
Net value of ecosystem changes
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Macrobenthos
Spring phyto. Other phyto.
Bacteria
Microzoopl.
Mesozoopl.Mysids
Meiobenthos
Seals
Detritus
Ad. herring
Juv. herring
Ad. cod
Juv. cod
Fishery
Ad. sprat
Juv. Sprat
NEST existing fish model
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Diatoms Cyanob.
Bacteria
Microzoopl.
Mysids
Meiobenthos
FisherySeals
Detritus
Age 0
Eggs/larvaeAge 0
Eggs/larvae
Age 0
Eggs/larvae
Pseudocalanus
Acartia
Temora
Cladocerans
Other...
Saduria
Other...
Dinoflagellates Other...
Age 1
Herring
Age 2 etc..
Age 2, etc
Age 1
Cod
Age 2, etc...
Age 1
Sprat
Further splitting of
groups
Fish Multistanza groups
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
The integrated BNI model
Policymeasures& costs
Pressures/emissions
Atmosphere
Drainage basins
Coastalzone
Open Baltic Sea
Ecosystem effects
Ecosystem services and value
Fish/fisheries component
Net value of ecosystem changes
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Toxicants
• Toxicants is a threat to the enviroment of the Baltic Sea
• Integration of atmospheric and marine models
• Selection of important toxicants• Establisments of mass balances, impact, and
risk analyses
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Cost Efficiency Modelling (Model dimensions)• 9 countries• 24 drainage basins• 7 marine areas
– Bothnian Bay– Bothnian Sea– Baltic Proper– Gulf of Finland– Gulf of Riga– Danish Straits– Kattegat
I1 I2
I4 I3
S1
S2
C1 C2
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Means to reduce N/P loads9 means will be used:– Establishing wetlands (N & P)
– Reduction of fertilizers (N)
– Area utilization (N)
– Limitations in domestic animals (N & P)
– Cows and pigs
– Waste water treatment (N & P)
– NOx reduction (N)
Cost minimization
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Maintenance and opdating GIS data Objective: • improve and update the
quality of existing GIS data in the NEST system
• coordinate model interfaces with GIS data
• Construct administrative GIS structures
• Couple models and GIS into a dynamic solution
• collect GIS data from The Baltic Sea Ecoregion
• develop new areas for economic data and presentation of results in NEST
modeldatabase
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
What exact steps should be taken to aid the implementation?
• Science-based support system• Update the databasis (1997-1993 – now)• Improve models (coast vs. open sea, dynamic
modelling, Danish Straits)• Link models• Develop cost minimization models• Open source philosophy• Data, models and manuals available to the
public
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Baltic Nest Institute, National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus University, Denmark
Conclusions
• The NEST philosophy will establish a science-based decision support system to improve the basis for political decisions
• NEST will link ecological and economic models
• Continued work in NEST will improve research, monitoring and management in the Baltic Sea Ecoregion
• All NEST work is done with end-users