working paper - bi.go.id .of regional minimum wage in affecting actual wage determination,...

Download Working Paper - bi.go.id .of regional minimum wage in affecting actual wage determination, productivity,

Post on 04-May-2019

212 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

TRANSCRIPT

Working Paper

DAMPAK UPAH TERHADAP PRODUKTIVITAS DAN

INFLASI: STUDI SEKTORAL DAN REGIONAL

2

Abstract

In this paper we observe three key issues. First, we measure the effectiveness

of regional minimum wage in affecting actual wage determination, productivity, and

inflation level in Indonesia. Furthermore, we expand our analysis on significant

factors affecting wage determination, productivity, and inflation level as our second

objective. Finally, we identify the existence of a threshold level of minimum wage in

relation to inflation level.

For the abovementioned purposes, we apply spatial lag model (SAR) and

spatial error model (SEM) to address the first and the second issue to provincial level

data of Indonesia during of 2000-2006. Hence, following Hansen (1999) and Caner

and Hansen (2004), we apply dynamic panel threshold model to extract the threshold

level, given endogeneity issue.

Correspondingly, it is evident that there is a nonlinear relationship between

wage and inflation in Indonesia and we suggest that any minimum wage increase

above 12.7 % will significantly accelerate inflation rate and under which an

insignificant relationship exist. Furthermore, we show that actual wage determination

in manufacturing and trade sector rely mainly on minimum wage, inflation, and GDP

growth while the increase of workers productivity is a product of education and

training. Therefore, we suggest that an integrated social policy is a key to boost

workers welfare.

Keywords: minimum wages rate, inflation rate,spatial lag model (SAR), spatial error

model (SEM), dynamic panel threshold model.

JEL CLASSIFICATION: E 24, E 31

3

4

U

MGrowth Growth Growth

1 D.I. Aceh 3.85 3.70 10.71

2 Sumatera Utara 7.31 15.89 8.75

3 Sumatera Barat 12.23 9.00 17.39

4 Riau 10.24 10.54 13.09

5 Kepulauan Riau 5.41 4.10 34.49

6 Jambi 14.22 11.24 13.69

7 Sumatera Selatan 13.00 14.00 30.00

8 Bangka Belitung 12.53 8.40 13.96

9 Bengkulu 4.49 14.11 29.03

10 Lampung 11.40 14.04

11 Jawa Barat 9.01 44.53 27.00

14 DKI Jakarta 15.38 18.54 43.87

15 Banten 4.68 4.20

12 Jawa Tengah 2.27 23.86 9.00

16 D.I. Yogyakarta 8.36 10.48 10.76

13 Jawa Timur 11.90 32.49 12.23

17 Bali 7.32 8.71 24.03

23 N T B 6.65 5.26

22 N T T 6.25 14.71 3.59

18 Kalimantan Barat 8.30 12.15 17.78

21 Kalimantan Selatan 9.91 8.79 9.18

19 Kalimantan Tengah 15.01 17.00 17.00

20 Kalimantan Timur 8.18 8.58 48.85

24 Maluku 7.14 8.33

25 Maluku Utara 5.00 8.00

26 Gorontalo 7.39 9.84

27 Sulawesi Utara 5.00 19.05

30 Sulawesi Tenggara 8.14 11.00 9.00

29 Sulawesi Tengah 6.43 6.95

28 Sulawesi Selatan 10.00 9.09 20.00

31 Sulawesi Barat 6.55 12.03

32 Irian Jaya 6.57 7.89

33 Irian Jaya Barat 16.53 2.84

8.69 12.54 19.75

8.80 11.93 21.66

10.50 19.79 29.68

3.79 4.50 4.50 Inflasi

2011 2012 2013

UMP Rata-rata

Growth UMP Rata-rata biasa

Growth UMP Rata-rata tertimbang

NO. PROPINSI

5

6

7

8

9

10

y Wy X ........................................................................................ (1)

y

X

11

y X ................................................................................................. (2)

W ................................................................................................ (3)

W

12

tijititittijtij PYWWMW ,,. min. (11)

13

Produktivitasi,t = + WSi,t + PSi,t + i,t

tijititittijtij TRSCWPMP ,,, ro.ro

tiititititit YLoanWPMP ,.

(12)

(13)

(14)

14

15

0.0045 *** 0.0530 0.8790 0.8690

(2.96) (3.52) (37.90) (33.51)

0.2270 *** 0.2270 0.2440 0.2450

(16.52) (16.59) (32.73) (33.28)

0.5110 *** 0.5090 0.5240 0.5200

(76.39) (76.41) (139.45) (139.28)

0.2010 *** 0.1890 0.2270 0.2210

(19.95) (19.59) (33.77) (33.59)

R-Squared 0.9995 0.9994 0.9995 0.9998

dummy Regional

Observasi

Hausman Test

(Prob)

LM Test

Robust LM Test no spatial lag

Robust LM Test no spatial error

Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung

***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%

7.64

1.15

19.68

(0.028)

PDRB

338

V

Spatial Autocorrelation

Inflasi

Upah Minimum Provinsi

FE RE

Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Semua Sektor

VariableSAR SEM

FE RE

16

17

0.0290 0.0300 *** 0.4750 0.8000

(4.88) (5.08) (5.24) (20.73)

0.3120 0.3120 *** 0.3290 0.3330

(61.51) (62.20) (67.88) (100.03)

0.3960 0.3960 *** 0.3920 0.3930

(171.46) (173.39) (201.86) (219.5)

0.2490 0.2480 *** 0.2710 0.2710

(67.65) (68.35) (73.23) (87.57)

R-Squared 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999

Observasi

Hausman Test

(Prob)

LM Test

Robust LM Test no spatial lag

Robust LM Test no spatial error

Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung

***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%

6.0250

0.0029

0.328

1.00

PDRB

338

Spatial Autocorrelation

Inflasi (CPI)

Upah Minimum Provinsi

FE RE FE RE

Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Pertanian

Variable

SAR SEM

18

19

0.0200 *** 0.0400 0.8300 0.8700

(1.86) (3.43) (25.45) (33.90)

0.1100 *** 0.0700 0.1100 0.1100

(10.36) (6.98) (13.89) (19.29)

0.7100 *** 0.7100 0.7200 0.7200

(127.82) (119.69) (219.27) (236.76)

0.1500 *** 0.1600 0.1600 0.1600

(18.26) (19.67) (25.69) (29.32)

R-Squared 0.9997 0.9996 0.9999 0.9999

dummy Regional

Observasi

Hausman Test

(Prob)

LM Test

Robust LM Test no spatial lag

Robust LM Test no spatial error

Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung

***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%

2.05

(0.000)

8.00

338

83.52

Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Industri

V

SAR SEM

FE RE FE RE

Inflasi (CPI)

Upah Minimum Provinsi

PDRB

Spatial Autocorrelation

Variable

20

21

0.0390 *** 0.0400 0.7600 0.8800

(5.28) (5.65) (16.47) (37.40)

0.2100 *** 0.2100 0.2200 0.2300

(29.54) (29.61) (39.31) (53.54)

0.5900 *** 0.5900 0.5900 0.5900

(162.63) (162.45) (257.91) (277.54)

0.1200 *** 0.1200 0.1700 0.1700

(23.88) (23.59) (40.05) (45.87)

R-Squared 0.9999 0.9998 0.9999 0.9999

dummy Regional

dummy Waktu

Observasi

Hausman Test

(Prob)

LM Test

Robust LM Test no spatial lag

Robust LM Test no spatial error

Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung

***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%

0.29

(0.000)

6.53

V

338

40.64

Dampak UMP Terhadap Upah Aktual Sektor Perdagangan

Inflasi

Upah Minimum Provinsi

PDRB

V

FE RE FE RE

Spatial Autocorrelation

VariableSAR SEM

22

23

0.520 0.490 0.560 0.577 ***

(6.50) (5.82) (7.26) (6.76)

0.007 0.006 0.004 0.005 **

(0.87) (0.835) (0.51) (2.08)

0.060 0.070 0.140 0.138 ***

(4.04) (4.21) (6.71) (6.62)

0.030 0.030 0.030 0.034 ***

(3.01) (3.17) (3.28) (3.57)

0.0005 0.0008 0.0007 0.0008

(0.41) (0.55) (0.48) (0.37)

R-Squared 0.992 0.991 0.991 0.988

Observasi

Hausman Test

(Prob)

LM Test

Robust LM Test no spatial lag

Robust LM Test no spatial error

Catatan: Asymtot t-stat dalam tanda kurung

***,**,* menunjukkan tingkat signifikansi pada level 1%,5% dan 10%

4.98

5.69

4.48

(0.87)

338

Training

Opennes

UMP

Spatial Autocorrelation

Schooling

FE RE FE RE

Dampak UMP Terhadap Produktivitas Pekerja

VariableSAR SEM

24

25

0.0870 ** 0.0700 *

(1.977) (1.707)

Recommended

View more >