work 4.0 and the future of productivity in germany · june 25, 2018 / dr. hubertus bardt / work 4.0...

June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt

Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany

Source: IW Medien / iwd

Agenda 2010

June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany 2

Pension

Scheme

Labour Market Social Contributions

Protection against Dismissal Hartz IV

3 June 25, 2018 / Dr. Hubertus Bardt / Work 4.0 and the Future of Productivity in Germany

Notes: in percentage points Source: German Economic Institute

Contributions of the production factors labor, capital and total factor productivity (TFP) to the growth of real GDP

Growth projections up 2035

employment real GDP capital


Source: PWC, 2015

Increase of revenue

• 12.5 % over 5 years

Necessary investment

• 40.1 bn. euro annually

Machinery and plant engineering, automotive, process industry, electrical and electronic industry, ICT, 2015

What German companies expect from Industry 4.0 until 2020


69.5

66.4

65.4

64.1

63.2

61.8

44.3

44.3

1. Finland

2. Schweden

3. Israel

4. Great Britain

5. Australia

9. USA

17. Germany

18. Japan

BBVA - DiGiX ZEW/Fraunhofer, 2017

The Digitization Index

Source: Fraunhofer and ZEW, 2017 http://www.innovationsindikator.de/fileadmin/2017/PDF/Innovationsindikator_2017.pdf (P. 36); Camara andTuesta, 2017 https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WP_17-03_DiGiX_methodology.pdf (P. 9)

1.00

0.97

0.95

0.92

0.90

0.88

0.78

1. Luxembourg

2. Great Britain

3. Hong Kong

4. USA

5. Netherlands

6. Japan

16. Germany

http://www.innovationsindikator.de/fileadmin/2017/PDF/Innovationsindikator_2017.pdf

https://www.bbvaresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/WP_17-03_DiGiX_methodology.pdf






Source: IW Consult, 2015, 2016

Percentage of surveyed companies, only companies with at least 20 employees in the manufacturing sector

Industry-4.0-Readiness


Source: IW Köln; IW Consult, 2016

Percentage of the companies in the manufacturing industry, depending on the type of digital transformation, 2015

Opportunity versus risk in Industry 4.0


Source: Demary et al., 2016

Efficiency and productivity

Improved use of input resources, raw materials, energy

Improved control of value-added chains

Flexibility and transparency

Flexible production processes, batch size 1

Transparent production processes

Digital business models

Increased benefits for customers

Increasing importance of online platforms

New products and services

Anything as a service (XaaS)

Greater differentiation of product and service portfolio

Selected opportunities

Opportunities of digitalization at the company level


Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014

Proportion of companies in % by level of digitisation, 2014 selection

Benefits from exploiting capabilities of digital technologies

82

70

76


1 for better professional internet use, 2 to changing vocational qualification requirements Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014

Need for change in order to be able to take advantage of the opportunities offered by digital transformation - percentage of companies in % - 2014

Challenge of competence building

Photo source: juniart – Fotolia; kasto – Fotolia; katatonia - Fotolia

62 59 59

willingness to change Expansion of company qualification courses1

Adaptation of courses at schools/colleges2


+/++/+++ significance at 10%-/5%-/1%-level Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014, own calculations

less digitised firms (ref.) highly digitised firms

today increase today increase

Ability to communicate and cooperate 76.2 72.2 87.4+++ 83.0+++

Ability to plan and organise, to act autonomously 49.5 69.0 76.4+++ 81.5+

Experience (firm-specific, occupational-specific) 53.4 55.7 60.5+++ 70.7+++

Technical know how / expertise 28.9 53.1 35.1+++ 60.8+++

Craft/Dexterity 34.4 24.1 19.7 20.6

Management know how 21.3 52.1 28.4 57.4++

Online-skills 9.7 51.3 43.6+++ 75.0+++

IT-know how 4.0 43.0 11.9+++ 63.8+++

for the majority of employees, proportion of companies in % by level of digitisation - 2014

Importance of competences – today and expectation for the next decade

Photosource: opolja - Fotolia.com; allinvisuality iStock-500340251


Employee can adapt working time within certain limits or determine working hours entirely by him- or herself. Sources: EWCS 2015; German Economic Institute

Proportion of employees with relatively high working-time sovereignty in the EU-28, 2015

Mobile computing means working-time sovereignty

43 28

21

56

43

38

79

84

Determining the amount of work

Performing work

work planning


1) work 3.0: isolated work without internet; Work 4.0: Networking with the Internet. Souces: IW based on the 2012 BIBB / BAuA Employment Survey; Arnold et al., 2015 based on the Linked Personnel Panel

Proportion of employees (in %) with ample room for maneuver / great influence in... - 20121)

Work 4.0 is sovereign work

Photosource: opolja - Fotolia.com


Source: IW-Personalpanel 2014

Proportion of companies in % by level of digitisation – 2014

HR policies and digitised work environment

Surce: BMAS, Weißbuch Arbeiten 4.0, Page 86

Work 4.0 is more flexible work

external flexibility

Reference point: "Normal enterprise" and "normal employment relationship"

internal flexibility

spatial flexibility

External crowdsourcing outsourcing work contracts temporary work

Home Office Mobile work

Virtual Teams Co-Working


term contract

Tempo-rary

work

work contract

Crowd work

Click work

4

1) Only ICT economy Source: ZEW 2015; Stettes, 2017 based on the EWCS 2015

0 5 10 15 20

temporary work

Temporaryemployment

altogether mobile computer activity

mobile offline activity stationary computer activity

stationary offline activity

Percentage of companies using crowdworking platforms1), in % - 2014 and share of fixed-term and temporary workers in % in EU-28, by job digitization - 2015

The "normal work relationship" does not die out

Photosource: Fotolia – 26465371 XS / Fotolia_30752100_XS Tastatur

Crowdsourcing


Work 4.0 is not the end of Work

09/2016 04/1978 03/1964


www.iwkoeln.de

[email protected]

+49 221 4981-750

Managing Director Head of Research

Dr. Hubertus Bardt

work 4.0 and the future of productivity in germany · june 25, 2018 / dr. hubertus bardt / work 4.0...

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