wmo regional seminar on climate services in … · wmo regional seminar on climate services in...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Services in the Philippines
WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V
(SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC)(Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011)
VB MALANO
![Page 2: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Presentation Outline
1. Climate of the Philippines2. PAGASA Climate Services3. Climate Research Activities4. Use of Regional/Global Products
![Page 3: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
� Philippine Geography and Topography
� Principal Air Streams
� Semi-permanent cyclones and anti-cyclones
� Ocean currents
The climate of the Philippines is influenced by the complex interactions of the various factors such as :
![Page 4: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Topographic map of thePhilippines
Height scale are in meters
![Page 5: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
� Two seasons – Wet and Dry season
� Mean Annual Temperature – 26.6o C
- coolest month is in January (mean 25.5oC)
- warmest month is in May (mean 28.3oC)
� Mean Annual Rainfall range – 965 to 4064 mm
� Relative Humidity range – 71 % to 85 %
![Page 6: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
January
July
![Page 9: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Winds and Seasonal Rainfall are Closely LinkedRelated to the large scale monsoons andlocal air-land interactions
JJA
DJF
B.Lyon
![Page 10: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Philippine Climate Type
![Page 11: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Climate Type I
![Page 12: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Climate Type II
![Page 13: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Climate Type III
![Page 14: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Climate Type IV
![Page 15: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Average tropical
cyclone tracks
for 1st Qtr
![Page 16: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Average tropical
cyclone tracks
2nd Qtr
![Page 17: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Average Tropical
Cyclone Tracks
for 3rd Qtr.
This period is the peak of the SW monsoon. Strong SW influence T.C. movement to the North West or over the Northern/ Extreme Northern Luzon.
![Page 18: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Average Tropical
Cyclone Tracks
for 4th Qtr.The period covers the first half of the NE monsoon season. Tracks of tropical cyclone during this period are likely across central and southern parts of Luzon, and Visayaswith secondary tracks over Northern Mindanao.
![Page 19: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Annual frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing
the Philippines (1948-2006)
Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the CountryAverage crossing = 9 T.C.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06
Not Crossing the Philippines
Land falling/Crossing the Philippines
![Page 20: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
![Page 21: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
PAGASA Climate Services
![Page 22: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
6. Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories5. Agri Weather Services
4. ENSO Advisory
8. Press releases
3. Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture
1. Seasonal Climate Outlook2. Monthly weather review and outlook
7. Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast inflow
PAGASA Climate Services
9. Latest rainfall forecast
![Page 23: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
1. Agriculture Sector2. Water Sector3. Power Sector4. Local Government Unit5. Transport Sector6. Trade and Industry7. Others
Climate Information Users(Demand for Climate Services is increasing)
![Page 24: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
![Page 25: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
![Page 26: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
![Page 27: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
![Page 28: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
![Page 29: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
![Page 30: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Angat Multi-purpose Dam
![Page 31: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
![Page 32: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
November 2011November 2011November 2011November 2011
Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal
Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)
(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011
![Page 33: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
December 2011December 2011December 2011December 2011
Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal
Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)
(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011
![Page 34: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
January 2012January 2012January 2012January 2012
Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal
Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)
(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011
![Page 35: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
February 2012February 2012February 2012February 2012
Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal
Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)
(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011
![Page 36: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
March 2012March 2012March 2012March 2012
Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal
Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)
(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)
Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011
![Page 37: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
PROVINCE %N_NOV %N_DEC %N_JAN %N_FEB %N_MAR
CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)
ABRA 136.2 180.3 126.1 209.6 324.6
BENGUET 114.2 160.9 143.8 163.9 177.8
IFUGAO 122.4 155.6 135.5 151.0 183.1
KALINGA 125.5 133.1 121.5 131.2 115.2
APAYAO 138.7 163.4 106.0 243.5 235.5
MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 126.5 159.7 135.0 159.9 215.3
REGION I
ILOCOS NORTE 144.8 201.4 89.3 361.3 354.5
ILOCOS SUR 129.1 182.0 139.1 173.1 326.8
LA UNION 115.3 170.3 140.2 181.1 211.4
PANGASINAN 115.1 175.1 127.7 207.9 156.0
REGION II
BATANES 125.5 125.3 88.5 128.0 109.3
CAGAYAN 133.0 128.1 115.7 146.7 119.1
ISABELA 125.5 133.1 121.5 131.2 115.2
NUEVA VIZCAYA 117.1 154.1 134.7 140.7 141.3
QUIRINO 118.1 147.8 120.8 125.7 126.6
REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)
BATAAN 120.5 158.4 119.3 163.6 125.2
BULACAN 120.6 137.4 125.1 138.0 120.5
NUEVA ECIJA 122.3 152.4 147.8 140.7 124.8
PAMPANGA 120.6 157.2 130.4 158.0 123.7
TARLAC 118.8 170.9 137.1 175.1 125.6
ZAMBALES 115.7 188.8 123.1 183.6 131.2
AURORA 118.1 144.8 117.2 115.2 113.2
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION
METRO MANILA 116.8 127.6 106.4 147.5 122.0
REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)
BATANGAS 117.2 136.6 125.0 139.6 114.1
CAVITE 117.7 137.5 123.1 152.0 119.9
LAGUNA 108.7 126.1 113.6 133.2 115.1
RIZAL 115.4 124.8 111.3 131.1 116.4
QUEZON 110.7 123.6 108.6 121.2 113.8
REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)
MARINDUQUE 115.4 125.4 108.1 129.1 113.2
OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 138.3 134.3 119.4 151.3 120.4
ORIENTAL MINDORO 131.7 131.8 116.9 142.9 114.6
ROMBLON 126.9 125.6 122.4 153.8 121.5
PALAWAN 130.9 147.1 133.1 149.6 175.9
REGION V (BICOL)
ALBAY 108.7 114.6 111.7 126.8 113.6
CAMARINES NORTE 112.9 125.1 113.0 123.2 120.4
CAMARINES SUR 111.4 122.8 114.8 127.9 118.6
CATANDUANES 106.0 129.8 120.7 130.3 118.4
MASBATE 114.4 113.2 119.4 125.6 116.1
SORSOGON 107.0 111.1 113.4 123.8 112.0
P R O V IN C E % N _ N O V % N _ D EC % N _ J A N % N _ F EB % N _ M A R
R EG IO N V I ( W ES T ER N V IS A Y A S )
A K L A N 1 3 1 .2 1 2 3 .0 1 2 7 .3 1 9 6 .8 1 4 2 .3
A N T IQ U E 1 2 8 .4 1 2 1 .2 1 3 2 .8 2 2 5 .2 1 2 9 .0
C A P IZ 1 2 9 .7 1 2 1 .5 1 2 4 .2 1 6 4 .6 1 4 9 .7
G U IM A R A S 1 2 3 .4 1 2 0 .2 1 2 6 .8 1 3 9 .9 1 1 4 .7
IL O IL O 1 2 6 .6 1 2 0 .2 1 2 6 .4 1 5 9 .9 1 3 1 .0
N EG R O S O C C ID EN T A L 1 2 4 .3 1 2 1 .3 1 2 2 .3 1 3 0 .9 1 2 6 .6
R EG IO N V I I ( C EN T R A L V IS A Y A S )
B O H O L 1 2 2 .4 1 1 4 .6 1 1 1 .5 9 7 .5 1 1 5 .2
C EB U 1 2 6 .3 1 1 7 .2 1 1 5 .8 1 0 2 .4 1 2 2 .1
N EG R O S O R IEN T A L 1 1 9 .5 1 2 6 .7 1 2 0 .5 1 2 7 .6 1 2 9 .6
S IQ U IJ O R 1 1 4 .1 1 2 7 .0 1 1 4 .9 1 0 5 .9 1 1 9 .1
R EG IO N V I I I ( EA S T ER N V IS A Y A S )
B IL IR A N 1 1 2 .7 1 1 6 .8 1 1 3 .7 1 2 5 .1 1 1 7 .5
EA S T ER N S A M A R 1 0 2 .6 1 1 7 .1 1 0 9 .8 1 2 1 .9 1 1 0 .0
L EY T E 1 1 2 .6 1 1 3 .3 1 1 1 .3 1 1 4 .2 1 1 1 .4
N O R T H ER N S A M A R 1 0 3 .5 1 1 3 .1 1 1 2 .5 1 2 2 .7 1 1 7 .6
S A M A R ( W ES T ER N S A M A R ) 1 0 6 .0 1 1 8 .3 1 1 1 .5 1 2 6 .2 1 1 5 .1
S O U T H ER N L EY T E 1 1 1 .0 1 1 3 .7 1 1 0 .8 1 0 3 .4 1 0 4 .2
R EG IO N IX ( Z A M B O A N G A P EN IN S U L A )
Z A M B O A N G A D EL N O R T E 1 0 6 .9 1 3 2 .8 1 2 2 .9 1 6 1 .0 1 9 5 .4
Z A M B O A N G A D EL S U R 1 0 4 .8 1 3 4 .4 1 2 3 .8 1 5 1 .3 1 9 9 .7
Z A M B O A N G A S IB U G A Y
R EG IO N X ( N O R T H ER N M IN D A N A O )
B U K ID N O N 1 0 8 .1 9 9 .7 9 8 .1 9 5 .9 9 7 .4
C A M IG U IN 1 1 2 .3 1 0 7 .3 1 0 4 .5 9 7 .0 1 0 4 .6
L A N A O D EL N O R T E 9 9 .7 1 2 8 .0 1 1 8 .1 1 0 8 .6 1 1 0 .5
M IS A M IS O C C ID EN T A L 1 0 1 .3 1 3 1 .5 1 1 8 .6 1 1 5 .3 1 1 8 .8
M IS A M IS O R IEN T A L 1 0 9 .2 1 0 2 .6 1 0 0 .6 9 6 .4 9 9 .9
R EG IO N X I ( D A V A O R EG IO N )
C A M P O S T EL A V A L L EY
D A V A O 1 0 5 .3 1 1 3 .2 1 0 4 .2 1 0 3 .5 1 0 9 .4
D A V A O D EL S U R 1 1 1 .7 1 2 6 .2 1 1 3 .5 1 0 9 .9 1 1 2 .1
D A V A O O R IEN T A L 1 0 5 .7 1 1 8 .9 1 0 7 .8 1 0 4 .0 1 0 4 .5
R EG IO N X II ( S O C C S K S A R G EN )
S O U T H C O T A B A T O 1 1 3 .7 1 3 5 .8 1 2 2 .9 1 1 8 .3 1 2 5 .0
C O T A B A T O 1 0 1 .1 1 3 0 .5 1 1 9 .8 1 0 3 .5 9 9 .6
S A R A N G A N I 1 1 8 .7 1 3 2 .4 1 1 9 .0 1 1 9 .4 1 2 8 .0
S U L T A N K U D A R A T 1 0 5 .4 1 4 1 .0 1 2 8 .0 1 1 7 .6 1 2 6 .2
R EG IO N X II I - C A R A G A
A G U S A N D EL N O R T E 1 0 7 .1 1 0 2 .5 1 0 1 .7 9 6 .1 9 7 .7
A G U S A N D EL S U R 1 0 6 .6 9 9 .9 9 9 .2 9 6 .8 1 0 0 .9
S U R IG A O D EL N O R T E 1 0 4 .1 1 1 1 .7 1 0 8 .4 9 9 .8 9 6 .4
S U R IG A O D EL S U R 1 0 3 .3 1 0 5 .9 1 0 4 .7 9 8 .2 9 9 .2
A R M M
B A S IL A N 1 1 7 .0 1 2 8 .0 1 2 0 .9 1 8 9 .1 3 3 5 .6
M A G U IN D A N A O 9 8 .8 1 4 3 .6 1 3 0 .7 1 1 0 .2 1 0 9 .9
L A N A O D EL S U R 9 8 .7 1 2 6 .5 1 1 8 .0 1 0 2 .4 9 9 .3
S U L U 1 1 7 .2 1 3 9 .4 1 2 2 .3 1 5 8 .6 3 4 8 .0
Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Percent of Normal ( NOV 2011 - MAR 2012)
![Page 38: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
P R O V IN C E N O V D EC J A N F EB M A R
C O R D IL L ER A A D M IN IS T R A T IV E R EG IO N ( C A R )
A B R A 1 3 8 .0 6 3 .7 2 1 .7 1 6 .7 2 5 .8
B EN G U ET 1 5 3 .5 6 3 .3 2 6 .9 2 7 .0 5 1 .2
IF U G A O 2 6 9 .9 1 7 9 .3 6 7 .7 5 7 .6 7 7 .2
K A L IN G A 4 9 8 .9 4 1 3 .9 1 6 2 .3 1 2 1 .4 1 2 7 .3
A P A Y A O 2 4 0 .2 1 0 8 .7 4 9 .0 2 7 .4 2 4 .5
M O U N T A IN P R O V IN C E 2 3 2 .6 1 3 8 .6 4 7 .2 4 0 .0 5 6 .0
R EG IO N I
IL O C O S N O R T E 9 6 .4 3 2 .1 1 6 .8 1 2 .1 1 4 .2
IL O C O S S U R 9 1 .1 2 8 .6 1 0 .2 1 1 .2 2 6 .6
L A U N IO N 8 6 .3 9 .8 5 .0 9 .7 3 1 .1
P A N G A S IN A N 6 9 .1 2 6 .9 1 0 .6 1 3 .0 2 4 .0
R EG IO N I I
B A T A N ES 3 3 4 .8 2 3 3 .6 1 6 1 .5 1 0 9 .4 7 7 .7
C A G A Y A N 4 0 1 .1 2 3 2 .6 9 9 .7 5 9 .3 4 9 .7
IS A B EL A 4 9 8 .9 4 1 3 .9 1 6 2 .3 1 2 1 .4 1 2 7 .3
N U EV A V IZ C A Y A 2 9 3 .4 2 1 2 .4 9 1 .4 8 0 .5 1 0 6 .2
Q U IR IN O 4 5 6 .5 3 9 9 .4 1 7 1 .9 1 4 1 .3 1 6 3 .7
R EG IO N I I I ( C EN T R A L L U Z O N )
B A T A A N 7 0 .4 4 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .2
B U L A C A N 2 5 3 .2 2 2 7 .6 9 0 .7 6 0 .0 5 6 .4
N U EV A EC IJ A 2 1 3 .5 1 5 0 .1 6 1 .0 5 1 .5 6 5 .5
P A M P A N G A 1 1 1 .0 5 0 .5 9 .4 7 .2 1 2 .7
T A R L A C 9 0 .9 2 9 .2 3 .3 7 .3 1 6 .9
Z A M B A L ES 5 9 .8 8 .5 0 .2 2 .3 9 .6
A U R O R A 5 0 5 .9 4 7 7 .5 2 1 1 .4 1 6 6 .9 1 8 3 .7
N A T IO N A L C A P IT A L R EG IO N
M ET R O M A N IL A 2 1 3 .3 1 7 5 .6 5 5 .9 3 5 .8 3 4 .1
R EG IO N IV - A ( C A L A B A R Z O N )
B A T A N G A S 2 4 3 .0 1 9 9 .4 5 1 .4 3 6 .1 4 4 .9
C A V IT E 1 3 8 .7 8 0 .7 9 .4 4 .5 1 2 .2
L A G U N A 4 0 5 .6 4 0 1 .9 1 3 1 .4 9 3 .2 8 7 .7
R IZ A L 3 8 3 .0 4 0 0 .2 1 6 3 .0 1 0 4 .2 8 8 .5
Q U EZ O N 5 6 6 .6 6 3 5 .3 2 4 7 .5 1 7 0 .4 1 4 8 .9
R EG IO N IV - B ( M IM A R O P A )
M A R IN D U Q U E 4 4 8 .7 4 6 4 .8 1 6 7 .9 1 2 1 .7 1 0 6 .9
O C C ID EN T A L M IN D O R O 2 2 8 .2 1 7 5 .2 6 1 .7 3 9 .5 4 2 .8
O R IEN T A L M IN D O R O 2 8 7 .3 2 4 9 .7 9 3 .0 6 1 .8 6 2 .1
R O M B L O N 2 9 8 .1 2 5 6 .4 1 1 6 .8 7 7 .1 6 3 .0
P A L A W A N 1 9 4 .2 1 5 6 .4 1 6 .3 1 5 .5 4 3 .2
R EG IO N V ( B IC O L )
A L B A Y 5 0 2 .2 6 0 3 .2 3 1 5 .7 2 2 9 .2 1 8 4 .8
C A M A R IN ES N O R T E 6 2 1 .8 7 7 5 .0 3 0 5 .0 2 0 3 .1 1 8 0 .8
C A M A R IN ES S U R 5 4 8 .1 6 8 0 .9 2 9 6 .1 2 0 1 .7 1 7 3 .9
C A T A N D U A N ES 5 2 6 .8 6 5 7 .2 3 0 0 .2 1 8 4 .9 1 7 2 .2
M A S B A T E 3 1 5 .6 3 2 4 .7 2 0 7 .3 1 3 3 .9 1 0 9 .3
S O R S O G O N 4 6 2 .7 5 4 0 .9 3 3 6 .7 2 3 4 .1 1 8 8 .1
P R O V IN C E N O V D EC J A N F EB M A R
R EG IO N V I ( W ES T ER N V IS A Y A S )
A K L A N 2 8 3 .0 1 8 3 .9 8 0 .8 5 4 .5 6 5 .5
A N T IQ U E 2 3 9 .0 1 3 8 .1 5 4 .7 3 8 .4 4 9 .7
C A P IZ 2 9 1 .4 1 8 5 .2 8 8 .9 6 0 .9 7 7 .6
G U IM A R A S 2 0 4 .1 1 1 7 .8 4 9 .0 3 6 .9 4 4 .2
IL O IL O 2 4 6 .9 1 5 0 .5 6 8 .6 4 9 .1 6 0 .7
N EG R O S O C C ID EN T A L 2 0 0 .8 1 2 7 .3 6 7 .4 4 5 .8 5 1 .1
R EG IO N V II ( C EN T R A L V IS A Y A S )
B O H O L 2 4 6 .7 2 3 3 .4 2 1 5 .6 1 3 9 .6 1 1 0 .5
C EB U 2 0 8 .7 1 6 2 .6 1 2 2 .1 7 9 .3 7 1 .6
N EG R O S O R IEN T A L 1 8 5 .6 1 3 1 .3 7 5 .9 4 9 .7 4 9 .1
S IQ U IJ O R 2 2 3 .2 1 8 8 .7 1 3 1 .7 8 2 .8 6 9 .2
R EG IO N V II I ( EA S T ER N V IS A Y A S )
B IL IR A N 3 1 7 .1 3 3 0 .2 2 3 9 .4 1 8 9 .3 1 4 9 .5
EA S T ER N S A M A R 4 2 7 .4 5 3 1 .1 4 3 4 .5 3 2 7 .2 2 5 0 .4
L EY T E 3 0 7 .9 3 5 7 .6 3 0 0 .8 2 2 9 .4 1 7 0 .8
N O R T H ER N S A M A R 5 0 3 .7 5 8 0 .1 4 5 1 .0 3 1 1 .2 2 5 3 .5
S A M A R ( W ES T ER N S A M A R ) 4 0 3 .0 4 6 0 .1 3 4 9 .8 2 6 9 .2 2 1 0 .6
S O U T H ER N L EY T E 3 6 2 .7 4 4 7 .9 4 4 6 .8 3 0 8 .8 2 2 4 .7
R EG IO N IX ( Z A M B O A N G A P EN IN S U L A )
Z A M B O A N G A D EL N O R T E 2 8 2 .2 2 1 1 .9 1 0 6 .6 9 3 .9 1 0 2 .2
Z A M B O A N G A D EL S U R 2 6 2 .0 1 9 2 .4 1 0 3 .6 9 7 .0 1 1 2 .5
Z A M B O A N G A S IB U G A Y
R EG IO N X ( N O R T H ER N M IN D A N A O )
B U K ID N O N 2 2 0 .8 1 7 3 .3 1 7 2 .1 1 2 9 .0 1 2 9 .8
C A M IG U IN 3 1 5 .5 3 3 2 .5 3 3 8 .8 2 2 5 .4 1 7 9 .0
L A N A O D EL N O R T E 2 7 8 .3 2 1 2 .5 1 3 9 .6 1 0 0 .4 1 0 5 .2
M IS A M IS O C C ID EN T A L 3 2 9 .7 2 6 6 .4 1 5 5 .0 1 0 4 .9 9 6 .8
M IS A M IS O R IEN T A L 2 9 3 .3 2 8 1 .0 2 8 1 .2 1 9 2 .4 1 6 6 .5
R EG IO N X I ( D A V A O R EG IO N )
C A M P O S T EL A V A L L EY
D A V A O 2 0 3 .9 2 2 4 .5 2 7 3 .9 1 9 5 .8 1 8 5 .7
D A V A O D EL S U R 1 2 7 .5 1 0 7 .7 1 0 6 .4 8 8 .6 8 1 .7
D A V A O O R IEN T A L 2 1 6 .0 2 8 4 .1 3 6 5 .9 2 5 2 .8 2 2 6 .4
R EG IO N X II ( S O C C S K S A R G EN )
S O U T H C O T A B A T O 1 1 5 .9 8 3 .5 6 5 .3 6 3 .4 6 0 .4
C O T A B A T O 1 6 9 .6 1 1 5 .2 9 1 .3 7 5 .3 8 9 .4
S A R A N G A N I 1 0 2 .6 8 8 .7 8 5 .6 7 7 .2 6 3 .2
S U L T A N K U D A R A T 1 4 0 .7 9 3 .0 6 6 .4 6 3 .9 7 5 .9
R EG IO N X II I - C A R A G A
A G U S A N D EL N O R T E 3 7 4 .9 4 6 3 .1 5 4 0 .9 3 6 0 .5 2 9 3 .9
A G U S A N D EL S U R 3 2 0 .9 3 9 4 .6 4 9 2 .0 3 3 1 .6 2 9 4 .5
S U R IG A O D EL N O R T E 4 5 8 .2 6 1 0 .9 6 9 2 .0 4 5 9 .7 3 4 7 .6
S U R IG A O D EL S U R 4 0 4 .7 5 6 1 .0 7 0 7 .7 4 6 8 .3 3 9 9 .5
A R M M
B A S IL A N 1 2 7 .4 6 0 .7 2 6 .5 9 0 .7 1 3 5 .6
M A G U IN D A N A O 1 6 4 .6 1 0 9 .2 7 8 .1 6 7 .4 8 6 .4
L A N A O D EL S U R 2 4 0 .8 1 7 3 .5 1 2 3 .8 9 2 .1 1 0 4 .7
S U L U 9 0 .8 2 8 .8 1 .1 4 4 .4 9 3 .4
Forecast Rainfall Analysis in millimeter ( NOV 2011 - MAR 2012)
![Page 39: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
![Page 40: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Current Research Activities:
PAGASA has collaborative climate research studies with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
Published -
Title: Spatio-temporal variability and predictability of summer monsoon onset over the Philippines. Clim Dyn, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0520-5
Authored by:Moron V, Lucero A, Hilario F, Robertson AW, Lyon B, De Witt D (2009)
Currently on press -
MWR-D-11-00177Monthly Weather Review
Title: Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall Over the Philippines: Dynamical vs. Statistical Approaches .
Authored by:Andrew Robertson; Jian-Hua Qian; Michael K Tippett; Vincent Moron;
Anthony Lucero
![Page 41: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Use of regional/global Products:
PAGASA uses the following global information forreference and/or input in preparing seasonal climateforecast:
CPC/NCEP -CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies on Sea Surface Temperature
Monsoon MonitoringENSO Diagnostic Discussion
International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyECHAM4.5 – monthly rainfall forecast from IRI data libraryIRI ENSO Update and Forecast
Bureau of Meteorology’sAn All-season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index
Seasonal Outlook
Japan Meteorological Agency’s Climate System MonitoringEl Nino/La Nina MonitoringNWP Model Prediction
![Page 42: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
![Page 43: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
![Page 44: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
![Page 45: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
NGO initiated Climate Field Schoolin the Philippines
A replication of the Climate Field School model in the Province of Iloilo.
Two (2) Local Government Unit co-sponsored the CFS –
1. The Municipality of Irosin in the Province of Sorsogon and,
2. The Municipality of Gerona in the Province of Tarlac.
![Page 46: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Irosin, SorsogonGerona, Tarlac
Site location of CFS project
![Page 47: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
![Page 48: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022042801/5ade3ae97f8b9aeb668e0f13/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
For more information, VISIT us at
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph
Thank you