Winter Product Simplification:Coming Next Winter

NWS Partner’s MeetingJune 18, 2008

Background

• NWSI 10-513 (WFO Winter Weather Products) specifies a large suite of event-specific advisories and warnings related to winter weather hazards.

• Motivation to implement current suite (November 2005) was based in flexibility afforded by VTEC and results from Public Services Survey.

• However, internal and external feedback now strongly suggests we should return to a more simplified approach.

A LAKE EFFECT SITUATIONFEBRUARY 6, 2006

CONFUSION IN PHILADELPHIA AND NEW YORK CITY MEDIA MARKETS

Why Change Now?

• Difficult to describe and distinguish among the many products associated with complex winter events.

• Much time spent on (and confusion resulting from) canceling and re-issuing products with little difference in impacts.

• During significant winter events (many which include SVR), WWA map becomes cluttered.

• Large number of available products results in occasional inconsistencies among adjoining WFOs.

• Importantly: Regions concur individual warnings and advisories should include all events of similar impact. The proposal accomplishes this goal.

Example of Current Product

NEZ044‑045‑050>053‑065>067‑078‑011900‑ /O.NEW.KOAX.HS.W.0006.020301T1900Z-020302T1200Z/BUTLER‑CASS‑DODGE‑DOUGLAS‑HARRISON‑LANCASTER‑MILLSPOTTAWATTAMIE‑SALINE‑SARPY‑SAUNDERS‑SEWARD‑SHELBY‑

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN AND OMAHA 430 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2007

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A HEAVY SNOW WARNING. LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BECOME NORTH TONIGHT...PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.

Example of Simplified Product

NEZ044‑045‑050>053‑065>067‑078‑011900‑ /O.NEW.KOAX.WS.W.0006.020301T1900Z-020302T1200Z/BUTLER‑CASS‑DODGE‑DOUGLAS‑HARRISON‑LANCASTER‑MILLS‑MONTGOMERY‑POTTAWATTAMIE‑SALINE‑SARPY‑SAUNDERS‑SEWARD‑SHELBY‑WASHINGTON‑INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LINCOLN AND OMAHA430 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2007

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY....

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW. LIGHT SNOW WILL BECOME MOREWIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON... WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES OFTOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS LATETONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BECOME NORTHTONIGHT...PRODUCING SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW

Comment Process

• Original Public Information Statement (PNS) sent on February 28.

• Over 100 comments were received.

• Response among those who expressed an opinion was overwhelmingly positive (85%).

• Large majority of respondents were broadcasters & EMs.

• Service Change Notice to formally notify of change was issued May 12 for September 9 implementation.

Total Number of Responses - 108

86

15

7

Clearly Agrees

Clearly Disagrees

No Clear Vote

Responses by Affiliation

05

101520253035404550

Fire,Police &

EM

TV &Radio

PrivateCompany

Non-Affiliated

Clearly Agrees

Clearly Disagrees

No Clear Vote

Sample Comments - Supporters

• Too many warnings/advisories for the public to assimilate.

• It’s hard enough to educate on the distinction between watches, warnings and advisories.

• The proposed changes are much easier to disseminate.

• Could not come sooner. I've stopped using (the specific codes) myself.

• Anything to make it less confusing for viewers is good.

• Please do this - the maps have became so convoluted.

1) The proposal works against what the VTEC was designed to do.

Response:

- True, some codes will no longer be used…

- But comments strongly support they should not be used.

2) Sleet should keep it's own designation.

Response:

- It’s very rare for sleet to meet warning criteria.

- Sleet is usually a transition type & very difficult to forecast.

- Can be handled via Winter Wx Adv. or Winter Storm Warning

From Those Who Disagreed

From Those Who Disagreed (Cont’d)

3) Would require opening the notice or read further to determine why the warning or advisory was issued.

Response: Event specific information will be prominently found in the first line of the text, which is generally read by broadcasters and announcers.

4) Mobile phone text alerts may rely on what the product is called, without being able to present the text.

Response: Valid concern - we will work to remedy via the use of CAP and the Next Gen. Warning Tool.

Next Steps

• Update forecaster training and assure completion

by August 15.

• Update NWSI 10-513 prior to implementation.

• Continue to collect comments from you following implementation for future improvement.

Questions?