winter 2018/2019 lvp forecast verification · heathrow lvp verification © crown copyright 2019,...
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Winter 2018/2019 LVP Forecast Verification
Gatwick, Luton, Stansted, Bristol, Manchester, Heathrow
Emma CorriganNATS Met Office Operations Manager
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office
• Issued twice daily
• 0400 UTC
• 1600 L
• Consistent with TAFs,
warnings forecast valid at
time of issue
• Amendable for LTMA airfields
• Analysis of the period 0400-
1800 UTC
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Met Office NATS LVP Matrix
Gatwick D-1 LVP Verification
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
*1600L Issue of LVP matrix day before
N 146 3 2.1%
L 57 4 7.0%
ML 24 10 41.7%
MH 12 8 66.7%
H 3 3 100.0%
VH 0 0 n/a
D-1 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
LVP threshold:
Visibility <600 m
Cloud ceiling <200 ft
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Gatwick D0 LVP Verification
* 0400L Issue of LVP matrix that day
N 147 0 0.0%
L 51 2 3.9%
ML 18 4 22.2%
MH 9 6 66.7%
H 12 11 91.7%
VH 5 5 100.0%
D0 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
LVP threshold:
Visibility <600 m
Cloud ceiling <200 ft
Stansted D-1 LVP Verification
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0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
*1600L Issue of LVP matrix day before
N 138 3 2.2%
L 50 8 16.0%
ML 20 6 30.0%
MH 23 18 78.3%
H 11 7 63.6%
VH 0 0 n/a
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
D-1 LVP
Risk
LVP threshold:
Visibility <600 m
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office
Stansted D0 LVP Verification
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
* 0400L Issue of LVP matrix that day
N 136 0 0.0%
L 46 4 8.7%
ML 21 7 33.3%
MH 19 12 63.2%
H 15 14 93.3%
VH 5 5 100.0%
D0 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
LVP threshold:
Visibility <600 m
Luton D-1 LVP Verification
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0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
*1600L Issue of LVP matrix day before
N 143 4 2.8%
L 39 6 15.4%
ML 26 8 30.8%
MH 14 6 42.9%
H 20 15 75.0%
VH 0 0 n/a
D-1 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
LVP threshold:
Visibility <800 m
Cloud ceiling <200 ft
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office
Luton D0 LVP Verification
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
* 0400L Issue of LVP matrix that day
N 149 1 0.7%
L 31 1 3.2%
ML 21 8 38.1%
MH 13 7 53.8%
H 20 14 70.0%
VH 8 8 100.0%
D0 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
LVP threshold:
Visibility <800 m
Cloud ceiling <200 ft
Manchester D-1 LVP Verification
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
*1600L Issue of LVP matrix day before
LVP threshold:
Visibility <600 m
Cloud ceiling <300 ft
N 196 6 3.1%
L 25 3 12.0%
ML 17 6 35.3%
MH 4 3 75.0%
H 0 0 n/a
VH 0 0 n/a
D-1 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
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Manchester D0 LVP Verification
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
* 0400L Issue of LVP matrix that day
LVP threshold:
Visibility <600 m
Cloud ceiling <300 ft
N 194 1 0.5%
L 27 3 11.1%
ML 10 4 40.0%
MH 6 6 100.0%
H 5 4 80.0%
VH 0 0 n/a
D0 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
Bristol D-1 LVP Verification
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
*1600L Issue of LVP matrix day before
LVP threshold:
Visibility ≤1500 m
Cloud ceiling ≤200 ft
N 136 7 5.1%
L 31 7 22.6%
ML 31 12 38.7%
MH 24 10 41.7%
H 20 17 85.0%
VH 0 0 n/a
D-1 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2019, Met Office
Bristol D0 LVP Verification
0-5%
5-29%
30-39%
40-59%
60-89%
>90%
* 0400L Issue of LVP matrix that day
LVP threshold:
Visibility ≤1500 m
Cloud ceiling ≤200 ft
N 125 0 0.0%
L 29 5 17.2%
ML 24 10 41.7%
MH 32 14 43.8%
H 25 17 68.0%
VH 7 7 100.0%
D0 LVP
Risk
No. of
occasions
forecast
LVP
conditions
met
Frequency
of LVP
occurrence
Heathrow LVP verification
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• October 2018 to September 2019.