Winner - Runoff Contest Picks

Download Winner - Runoff Contest Picks

Post on 06-Feb-2016

96 views

Category:

Documents

0 download

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

Winner - Runoff Contest Picks

TRANSCRIPT

<ul><li><p>2nd62 63 64 65 66 67 68 72 73 7426 27 28 29 31 33 35 36 37 3812 13 15 16 18 19 20 21 22 231 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 38 40 41 48 50 51 52 53 54 55</p><p>61 69 70 7144 45 46 47 49 56 57 58 59 602 14 17 24 25 30 32 34 42 43</p><p>7th</p><p>10th</p><p>11th</p><p>15th</p><p>16th</p><p>18th</p><p>20th</p><p>21st</p><p>24th</p><p>29th</p><p>31st</p><p>36th</p><p>37th</p><p>41st</p><p>43rd</p><p>45th</p><p>46th</p><p>52 53 54 57 58 59 60 63 64 6525 26 27 29 30 31 32 33 36 3713 14 15 17 18 19 21 22 23 241 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 38 39 40 42 45 46 48 49 50 51</p><p>7547 55 56 61 62 70 71 72 73 747 11 16 20 28 34 35 41 43 44</p><p>67 68 71 72 74 7534 35 36 38 39 41 42 43 46 4921 23 24 25 26 27 29 30 31 321 3 5 6 8 9 12 15 17 19 52 53 55 57 58 60 62 63 65 66</p><p>51 54 56 59 61 64 69 70 7322 28 33 37 40 44 45 47 48 502 4 7 10 11 13 14 16 18 20</p><p>1 11 14 20 44 47 70 72</p><p>46 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 5525 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3413 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 242 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 45</p><p>66 68 69 70 74 7532 34 35 36 38 39 41 42 44 4619 20 21 23 24 26 27 28 29 311 2 3 5 6 8 9 10 12 15 48 52 53 55 58 60 61 62 63 65</p><p>54 56 57 59 64 67 71 72 7330 33 37 40 43 45 47 49 50 514 7 11 13 14 16 17 18 22 25</p><p>55 58 59 61 63 64 65 66 68 6922 24 25 27 28 31 32 33 34 3611 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 20 211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 40 43 44 45 47 49 50 51 53 54</p><p>71 74 7542 46 48 52 56 57 60 62 67 7019 23 26 29 30 35 37 38 39 41</p><p>68 71 7439 43 49 53 56 58 59 62 63 653 4 13 17 18 19 24 27 31 32</p><p>55 57 60 61 64 66 67 69 70 7229 30 33 34 35 36 37 38 40 4114 15 16 20 21 22 23 25 26 281 2 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 42 44 45 46 47 48 50 51 52 54</p><p>60 61 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 7225 26 27 29 30 32 44 4614 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 242 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 47 48 49 51 52 53 54 55 57 58</p><p>62 70 711 5 11 15 28 31 45 50 56 59</p><p>57 70 71 72 73 7411 12 18 19 34 44 45 50 51 54</p><p>57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 6625 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 3513 14 15 16 17 20 21 22 23 241 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 43 46 47 48 49 52 53 55 56</p><p>11 59 63 70 72</p><p>63 64 65 66 68 69 71 72 74 7530 32 34 36 38 39 41 42 43 4615 16 19 21 22 24 25 26 27 292 3 4 5 8 9 10 12 13 14 47 48 49 50 53 55 56 57 58 59</p><p>61 62 67 70 7333 35 37 40 44 45 51 52 54 601 6 7 11 17 18 20 23 28 31</p><p>37 38 40 41 45 47 48 50 55 5824 26 28 29 30 31 33 34 35 361 2 4 5 7 10 11 16 19 20 59 60 61 66 67 68 70 71 72 73</p><p>46 49 51 52 53 54 56 57 63 6421 22 23 25 27 32 39 42 43 443 6 8 9 12 13 14 15 17 18 65 69 74 75</p><p>70 74 7530 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 4318 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 291 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 16 50 51 52 54 57 60 61 63 65 69</p><p>55 56 58 59 62 64 66 67 68 7132 33 42 44 45 46 47 48 49 532 3 11 12 13 14 17 27 28 31 72 73</p><p>48 50 52 55 57 58 61 63 64 6526 27 29 30 32 33 38 41 42 462 3 5 6 9 16 21 23 24 25 66 67 68 73 74 75</p><p>37 39 40 43 44 45 47 49 51 5317 18 19 20 22 28 31 34 35 361 4 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 54 56 59 60 62 69 70 71 72</p><p>53 54 55 57 58 59 62 63 64 6526 27 28 30 31 32 34 35 37 3813 14 15 16 19 20 21 22 23 251 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 39 41 42 43 44 46 47 48 51 52</p><p>49 50 56 60 61 67 70 71 73 747 11 17 18 24 29 33 36 40 45</p><p>73 74 7531 33 35 47 51 54 56 62 70 711 11 12 13 17 19 22 24 28 30</p><p>58 59 60 61 63 64 65 66 67 6832 34 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 4315 16 18 20 21 23 25 26 27 292 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 44 45 46 48 49 50 52 53 55 57</p><p>15 17 19 26 46 62 69 70 73</p><p>45 47 48 61 63 64 6624 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 3411 12 13 14 16 18 20 21 22 231 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44</p><p>61 62 63 64 66 68 71 72 74 7531 32 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 4315 16 21 23 25 26 27 28 29 301 2 3 6 7 8 9 12 13 14 45 46 48 49 50 51 52 53 57 58</p><p>67 69 70 7333 34 40 44 47 54 55 56 59 654 5 10 11 17 18 19 20 22 24</p><p>M61 62 64 66 67 68 71 74 7535 36 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 4619 21 23 25 26 27 29 31 32 341 4 5 6 8 9 10 12 15 17 48 49 50 52 53 54 57 58 59 60</p><p>63 65 69 70 72 7324 28 30 33 37 45 47 51 55 562 3 7 11 13 14 16 18 20 22</p><p>Less than 51%</p><p>Mayoral margin</p><p>51.00% 51.99%</p><p>52.00% 52.99%</p><p>53.00% 53.99%</p><p>54.00% 54.99%</p><p>55.00% 55.99%</p><p>56.00% 56.99%</p><p>57.00% 57.99%</p><p>58.00% 58.99%</p><p>59% or higher</p><p>7 10 14 16 20 45 73</p><p>2 3 28 30 33 37 47 51 53 54 55 57 58 67</p><p>6 18 22 24 25 34 38 41 42 43 62 69 72</p><p>4 11 13 17 26 27 39 48 50 62 63 70 74</p><p>1 5 9 12 23 29 36 52 56 59 65</p><p>8 35 40 46 60 64 75</p><p>15 31 44 66</p><p>21 32 71</p><p>19 68</p><p>Incumbent w/ HIGHEST % Incumbent w/ LOWEST %</p><p>Non-Incumbent w/ HIGHEST % Non-Incumbent w/ LOWEST %</p><p>20 7 12 16 23 26</p><p>41 4 27 28 35</p><p>7 10 14 22 25</p><p>1 2 15 2043</p><p>45 11 13 24 34</p><p>46 3 30 31 36</p><p>21 6 8 21</p><p>10 22 32</p><p>31 17 18</p><p>9 3337</p><p>29 19</p><p>16 5</p><p>18</p><p>2 4 5 6 8 9 16 21 22 25</p><p>26 33 35 36</p><p>37 1 7 15 17 18 32</p><p>43 12 13 19 30</p><p>7 20 27 28</p><p>31 10 24 34</p><p>10 11 14</p><p>29 23 31</p><p>45 3</p><p>16 29</p><p>11</p><p>2 8 12 13 23 26 28 29 30 32</p><p>34</p><p>245 19 21 22 33 36</p><p>18 6 9 15 25 35</p><p>2 4 10 20 27</p><p>10 7 14 18</p><p>45 3 17</p><p>29 31</p><p>16</p><p>24</p><p>11</p><p>1</p><p>31</p><p>36</p><p>37</p><p>46</p><p>242 9 12 17 22 27 33 34 36</p><p>113 7 8 13 23 25 26</p><p>20</p><p>21</p><p>14 16 19</p><p>6 15 21</p><p>7 5 10</p><p>32 35</p><p>1 18</p><p>29 31</p><p>10</p><p>15</p><p>15</p><p>46 28 30</p><p>2 20</p><p>4</p><p>11</p><p>24</p><p>16</p><p>36</p><p>36</p><p>37 38</p><p>42 44 46 47</p><p>43 45</p><p>39</p><p>41</p><p>40</p><p>37 38 40 44 46</p><p>41 43</p><p>47</p><p>45</p><p>39</p><p>42</p><p>41 42 43 46</p><p>37 38 45</p><p>4436</p><p>407</p><p>39</p><p>4715</p><p>39 41 42</p><p>44 46</p><p>37</p><p>38 40 43</p><p>45</p><p>43 47</p><p>Alyx Pattison</p><p>Brian Hopkins</p><p>Michele Smith (i)</p><p>Caroline Vickrey</p><p>James Cappleman (i)</p><p>Amy Crawford</p><p>Natashia Holmes (i)</p><p>Gregory Mitchell</p><p>John Pope (i)</p><p>Susan Sadlowski-Garza</p><p>Patrick Thompson</p><p>John Kozlar</p><p>Rafael Yaez</p><p>Raymond Lopez</p><p>Toni Foulkes</p><p>Stephanie Coleman</p><p>Lona Lane (i)</p><p>Derrick Curtis</p><p>Willie Cochran (i)</p><p>Kevin Bailey</p><p>Howard Brookins (i)</p><p>Marvin McNeil</p><p>Vetress Boyce</p><p>Michael Scott Jr.</p><p>Deborah Graham (i)</p><p>Chris Taliaferro</p><p>Milly Santiago</p><p>Ray Suarez (i)</p><p>Omar Aquino</p><p>Gilbert Villegas</p><p>Emma Mitts (i)</p><p>Tara Stamps</p><p>Mary OConnor (i)</p><p>Anthony Napolitano</p><p>John Arena (i)</p><p>John Garrido</p><p>58 60 61 62 64 65 6722 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3112 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 211 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41</p><p>Rahm Emanuel (i)</p><p>Jesus Chuy Garcia</p><p>48</p><p>49 48</p><p>49</p><p>48</p><p>49</p><p>48</p><p>49</p><p>75</p><p>66 67</p><p>69</p><p>72 73</p><p>73 75</p><p>73 74</p><p>67 68</p><p>66 68</p><p>69 72</p><p>67 68</p><p>68 69</p><p>68 69</p><p>71 73</p><p>75</p><p>69 75</p><p>69 72</p><p>71 72</p><p>71 73</p><p>75</p><p>75</p><p>74 75</p><p>74 75</p><p>50</p><p>51</p><p>52</p><p>53 50</p><p>51</p><p>52</p><p>53</p><p>50</p><p>51</p><p>52</p><p>5316</p><p>50</p><p>51</p><p>52</p><p>5341</p><p>54</p><p>55</p><p>56</p><p>54</p><p>55</p><p>56</p><p>54</p><p>55</p><p>5643</p><p>54</p><p>55</p><p>5618</p><p>58 59 60 61 62</p><p>66</p><p>63</p><p>57</p><p>65</p><p>64</p><p>57 58 61 64 66</p><p>60</p><p>6546</p><p>63</p><p>59</p><p>62</p><p>61 65 66</p><p>60</p><p>57</p><p>58</p><p>63</p><p>64</p><p>62</p><p>59</p><p>11</p><p>59 60 62</p><p>61 64 65</p><p>57 66</p><p>63</p><p>58</p><p>67</p><p>67</p><p>67</p><p>67</p><p>The Aldertrack Election Prognostication Contest</p><p>Runoff Edition </p><p>Seventy-five individual contestants completed the contest survey by 10pm, Friday, April 3rd</p><p>. </p><p>Each contestant was assigned a number 1 through 75 and their choices are presented below.</p><p>The winner(s) will be contacted by email soon after preliminary election results are announced. </p><p>Contestants will remain anonymous unless they choose otherwise.</p><p>A Professional Guide To </p><p>Chicago Politics Since 2007</p><p>aldertrack.com</p><p>74</p><p>66</p><p>68% of contestants expect Hopkins to win</p><p>72% of contestants expect Holmes to win</p><p>61% of contestants expect Pope to win</p><p>89% of contestants expect Thompson to win</p><p>61% of contestants expect Lopez to win</p><p>69% of contestants expect Foulkes to win</p><p>69% of contestants expect Curtis to win</p><p>83% of contestants expect Cochran to win</p><p>79% of contestants expect Brookins to win</p><p>93% of contestants expect Scott to win</p><p>67% of contestants expect Graham to win</p><p>55% of contestants expect Santiago to win</p><p>57% of contestants expect Aquino to win</p><p>52% of contestants expect Stamps to win</p><p>73% of contestants expect OConnor to win</p><p>69% of contestants expect Smith to win</p><p>65</p><p>88% of contestants expect Arena to win</p><p>68% of contestants expect Cappleman to win</p><p>65% of contestants expect Emanuel to win</p><p>68 72</p><p>69 75</p><p>74</p><p>71</p><p>70</p><p>73</p><p>68 71</p><p>73</p><p>69</p><p>70</p><p>75</p><p>72</p><p>7420</p><p>69 70 71 75</p><p>72</p><p>73</p><p>68</p><p>74</p><p>69 70 75</p><p>68</p><p>70</p><p>15</p><p>71</p><p>72</p><p>74</p><p>09% expect this outcome</p><p>19% expect this outcome</p><p>17% expect this outcome</p><p>19% expect this outcome</p><p>15% expect this outcome</p><p>09% expect this outcome</p><p>05% expect this outcome</p><p>04% expect this outcome</p><p>03% expect this outcome</p><p>61</p><p>Contestant #61 </p><p>Ben Capellupo</p><p>Exec Director</p><p>SEIU IL Council</p><p>WINNER!</p><p>WINNER - RUNOFF CONTEST PICKS.vsdPage-1</p></li></ul>