wind presentation cer adelaide richard hobbs 2
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Page 1 Page 1 18 November 2013
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
Growth and Prospects of Wind Power under the Renewable Energy Target
Richard Hobbs
Senior Officer of Clean Energy Markets
Renewables and Carbon Farming
Wind Conference 2013
Page 2 Page 2 18 November 2013
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
Supporting Australia’s transition to a low carbon
economy through an informed and efficient market
for carbon and investment in renewable energy.
Page 4 18 November 2013
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
• encourage additional generation of electricity from
renewable and ecologically sustainable sources, and
• reduce emissions of greenhouse gases in the
electricity sector.
The Renewable Energy Target aims to:
Page 5 18 November 2013
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
Large-scale generation certificate (LGC) market
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All eligible renewable energy fuel sources
1. Hydro
2. Wave
3. Tide
4. Ocean
5. Wind
6. Solar
7. Geothermal-aquifer
8. Hot dry rock
9. Energy crops
10. Wood waste
11. Agricultural waste
12. Waste from processing
of agricultural products
13. Food waste
14. Food processing waste
15. Bagasse
16. Black liquor
17. Biomass-based components of
municipal solid waste
18. Landfill gas
19. Sewage gas and
biomass-based components of
sewage
20. Waste Coal Mine Gas
Page 7 18 November 2013
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Wind power stations in Australia
A total of 77 accredited wind power stations
(as at 28 October 2013) Source: Clean Energy Council
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Australia’s electricity generation by fuel source, 1991 -
2012
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LGCs created from all fuel sources
(as at 12 November 2013)
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Cumulative Installed Wind Capacity Under the LRET
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Total LGCs registered in the LRET (as at 8 November
2013)
Hydro 15,636,779
21% Other
1,000,648 1%
Wind 39,349,807
54%
Biomass 17,329,365
24%
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www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
Annual investment in Wind Production (as at 8 November
2013)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Inve
stm
ent
( $
Mill
ion
)
Accreditation Year
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-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
by
Jun
e 2
01
3 (
MW
)
Total Installed Capacity 2013
What are other countries doing in Wind Energy
The World Wind Association (2013)
Page 14 18 November 2013
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
Source: Windlab Systems Pty Ltd, DEWHA Renewable Energy
Atlas (wind map data); Geoscience Australia
Wind Resources and Grid Location for Australia
• Australia has excellent wind
resources, particularly in
western, south western,
southern, and south-east
costal regions.
• Grid places constraints on
development due to lack of
capacity or availability,
particularly in South
Australia
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Major Electricity Projects completed between October
2012 and August 2013
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www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
22%
69%
2% 7%
Gas
Wind
Hydro
Solar
588 MW
194 MW 40 MW
1,867 MW
New Electricity Projects at Committed Stage
14P
4P
3P
1P
P = Projects
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Wind Farms at Feasibility Stage (as at September 2013)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
NSW QLD WA NT SA VIC TAS TOTAL
Wind Farms at Feasibility Stage
Capacity (MW) Value (B$)
7 3
0
14 11
2
55
18
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Top 20 companies at feasibility or committed
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Total Investment Pipeline for Wind
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Capacity (MW) Value ($M)
Investment Pipeline for Wind
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AEMO’s Forecasts
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The Big Issues
• Electricity Demand (declining demand,
residential PV uptake, LNG projects)
• Wholesale electricity prices (demand, more
renewables, carbon price)
• Co-financing availability (ARENA, CEFC)
• LGC certificate prices
• Targets
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Electricity Demand • Residential PV/SHW
• LNG projects
• Retail electricity
prices
• Energy efficiency
• Economic growth
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Wholesale Electricity Prices
• Carbon price aside, wholesale prices have been
declining (demand, renewables, less peaking)
• Carbon price may go
• More renewables will mean lower prices
• This has occurred despite high gas prices
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Availability of co-financing options
RET 2020 GWh Target minus Non-Wind Renewable GWh
generation in 2020 = Wind GWh generation in 2020
Page 27 18 November 2013
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Wind vs Solar Levelised Cost
Page 28 18 November 2013
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Electricity Markets
• NEM - Potential
saturation in certain
states
• SWIS – Capacity
market not providing
optimal incentives for
investment
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Certificate Prices: LGC Spot Prices
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Targets
• Review in 2014
In both current legislation and the Carbon Tax Repeal
Bill.
• Political uncertainty remains, which could ‘backload’
required investment
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au
1300 553 542