[email protected] (314) 234-9651 how planning for success can open the door to failure...
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[email protected](314) 234-9651
How Planning for Success Can Open the Door to Failure
Bill Schoening
Aug 31, 2005 – St. Louis, MO
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Failure Comes in Many Forms
• Massive cost overruns• Huge schedule delays• Products that customers do not like• Show-cause letters• Cancellation
Every failure is an embarrassment for Boeing – and for us as employees
How does this happen?
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Today’s Topics
• What do we do that leads to failure?
• How can we recognize potential failures?
• What can we do to avoid failure?
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Excitement of the Win
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Then We Plan for Success
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Doom &Gloom
Doubters Not Welcome
Risk Management: • Address what we can handle • Ignore the rest
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Ignoring High Risk = Accepting High Risk
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How We React without a Plan
• Panic
•Failure
• Press on with what we know – even if it is wrong
• Hope with untried approaches
• Overwhelmed
R.I.P.
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“Solved” Problems Reoccur
• Underlying causes– Long lag between decision and effect– Months, maybe even weeks, are too long for
humans to perceive
• Solutions– Charge someone with stepping back and looking
for recurring problems on a regular basis
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Impossible Objectives
• Underlying causes– Requirements viewed as untouchable– Solution is “just around the corner”– Rarely teach
• Learning to suspect something is impossible• Learning to show something is impossible
• Solutions– Teach how to demonstrate that something is
impossible
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length
beam
lengthbeam ≈ constant
Turret Diameter
ShipWeight
Demonstrating Why Not
Max
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Unknown User Needs
• Underlying causes– Focus on written requirements rather than users– Important user needs discovered late in
development
• Solutions– Validate early and often– Primary objective is discovery, not showing– Requires real users, not surrogates
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Verification and Validation
Verification – process for demonstrating that a product satisfies written specifications.
Validation – process for discovering unmet needs ?
?
So this
doesn’t
happen
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Frequent Surprises• Underlying causes
– Managing things rather than intellectual content– Questions imply unknowns– Questions that go unanswered too long represent
significant risks– Plans focus on deliverables and not on answering
questions
• Solutions– Keep a running list of significant unanswered
questions with due dates– Making answering questions part of the plan
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Insufficient Time & Resources• Underlying causes
– Do not understand tasks – Staff before inputs are ready– Defer difficult tasks too often
Done
Defer
Done
Defer
• Solutions– Understand the necessary
steps leading to SRR and SFR– Match staffing to plan– Hold NAR on feasibility of
plan execution before starting
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“Quick Fixes” Fail
• Underlying causes– Denial of risk– Lack of mitigation plans– Or even contingency plans– Quick, easy fix looks good, but has unknown
consequences
• Solutions– Preplan courses of action– Pre-examine consequences of actions
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Not Asking for Help
• Underlying causes– Loss of self esteem when asking for help– Non-advocate reviews come too late– Failure to consider possibility of catastrophic failure
• Solutions– Gate reviews address plans for when things go very
wrong– Pay attention to symptoms of potential failure
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In Conclusion
• Programs will fail if we are not prepared for really bad occurrences
• Risk Management is not enough• Must teach and institutionalize
– How to look– Not to be afraid to look– Looking frequently
• Do we need a new process?“Discover Potential Catastrophes!”