William G. Rhodes IIISenior Manager, Sandia National

LaboratoriesAlbuquerque, NM

The Terrorist’s Choice:Nuclear, Biological, or

CyberWeapons

Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National

Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

William Ury, “The walk from "no" to "yes," Ted.com, 11/30/2010

TERRORISM“Taking an innocent stranger and treating him as an enemy who you hurt or kill in order to create fear.”

FBI: 100% Chance of WMD Attack

Vahid Majidi, FBI Assistant Director, FBI WMD Directorate, 2/14/2011

3IDEASIDEAS

123

Risk MatrixRisk Matrix

Black Swan EventsBlack Swan Events

Ideas of Terrorist Success

Ideas of Terrorist Success

Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation

Materials & ToolsMaterials & Tools

ManagementManagement

Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills

Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution

OPSECOPSEC

EconomicEconomic

Health EffectsHealth Effects

Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Risk = Threat x ConsequenceMotivationMotivation

ManagementManagementMaterials & ToolsMaterials & Tools

Human Capital & SkillsHuman Capital & Skills

Planning & ExecutionPlanning & Execution

OPSECOPSEC

EconomicEconomic

Health EffectsHealth Effects

Psychological EffectsPsychological Effects

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Ideas of Terrorist Success

Operation Hemorrhage

New York Post, “Cargo-jet plot was a cheap thrill” POST WIRE SERVICES, Nov. 21, 2010

Range of Possibilities

Terrorists are Failure Adverse

Black Swan Events

Black Swan Events

UnpredictableUnpredictable

Retrospective ExplainabilityRetrospective Explainability

Large Consequences

Large Consequences

Nuclear WeaponsNuclear Weapons

Materials + Knowledge

PuPu9494

Plutonium(239)Plutonium(239)

TIME Magazine cover, “Merchant of Menace”, Feb. 14, 2005

Urs Tinner, World Radio Switzerland

Marco Tinner, Associated Press

Changes Since 9/11

•USG Position on Terrorist Capability

•KSM Warning

•USG Nuclear Security Programs

Nuclear WeaponsFinal thoughts on

Biological Weapons

Siege of CaffaSiege of Caffa

Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe

Spread of Bubonic Plague in Europe

NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare

NOVA Science Now, History of Bio Warfare

Terrorist Use of Biological Agents

The Dalles, Oregon

TIME Magazine cover, “Cult of Doom”, Apr. 3, 1995

Materials + Knowledge

Bacteria

Toxins

Rickettsia

Viruses

•2009 Rumors of Plots

•USG Bio-security Initiatives

•Other Activities

Changes Since 9/11

Bio WeaponsFinal thoughts on

Cyber Weapons

We rely on ourcyber infrastructure

for so much!

We rely on ourcyber infrastructure

for so much!

Why are Cyber Threats Different?

Why are Cyber Threats Different?

•Viruses

•Spyware

•Spam

•Phishing

•Trojan Horse

StuxnetStuxnet

•National Cyber Security Division, US CERT DHS

•Cyber Command, DoD

•US Cyber Security Coordinator

Changes Since 9/11

Cyber AttacksFinal thoughts on

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

Niels Bohr, 1922 Nobel Prize Winning Physicist

3CHOICESCHOICES

Rank Weapon Type Average Rank

1 Chemical Weapon 1.3

2 Radiological Weapon 2

3 Biological Weapon 2.7

4 Nuclear Weapon 4

Delphi Survey

Source: Jihadists and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Eds. Ackerman and Tamsett, CRC Press, 2009, pp. 379-395

Delphi Survey Results

Final Thoughts

“Thank You”