will the euro eventually surpass the dollar as leading international reserve currency? menzie chinn,...
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Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar
as Leading International Reserve Currency?
MENZIE CHINN, University of WisconsinJEFFREY FRANKEL, Harvard University
For NBER conference on G7 Current Account Imbalances:
Sustainability and AdjustmentNewport, RI, June 1-2, 2005Richard Clarida, Organizer
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Reserve Currency Holdings
Table A Share of National Currencies in Total Identified Official Holdings of Foreign Exchange, End of Year (in percent) 1965 1973 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 All countries U.S. dollar 56.1 64.5 76.2 57.9 53.9 48.9 59.1 63.5 Japanese yen 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 6.8 7.4 5.1 5.2 Pound sterling 20.0 4.2 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.6 3.3 4.4 Swiss franc 0.0 1.1 0.8 2.3 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 Euro 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 Deutsche mark 0.1 5.5 6.4 11.6 13.8 14.0 13.7 0.0 French franc 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 2.6 1.5 0.0 Netherlands guilder 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 ECUs 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 13.6 9.7 5.0 0.0 Unspecified currencies 22.9 23.6 12.3 6.5 6.4 13.3 11.3 7.1
1977-2002 data, updated IMF Internal data
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Figure 7: Reserves held by central banks as shares of total – major currencies
(revised IMF data spliced into old data after 1979) 5/2/05
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
USD
DEM
JPY
EUR
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Figure 8: US Dollar – Reserves held by central banks as shares of total – smaller currencies
revised IMF data spliced into old data after 1979)
.000
.005
.010
.015
.020
.025
.030
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
SFR
FFR
NLG
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Dollar-dissing is cyclical
• Historically, whenever the $ depreciates, commentators predict its demise as leading international currency. E.g.,1978-79; 1994-95.
• So the current episode was predictable:”Sometime soon, newspaper stories will begin reporting that central banks in Asia and elsewhere are diversifying out of dollars into euros, and that the dollar is in danger of eventually losing its status as premier international currency.” -- Frankel (2004).
• Similar speculation in the past has been pre-mature. E.g., the true stats showed a temporary upward trend for the $ in the 1990s – Frankel (1995).
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But this time may be different• What makes this time different?
– U.S. macro policy may undermine faith in the $• twin deficits• net international debt• monetary ease (2001-04)• parallels with late 1960s
– Plausible rival exists, since 1999: the euro• Eichengreen & Frankel (1996): “It is unlikely that some other
currency will supplant the dollar as the world’s premier currency...There is no plausible alternative for the number one position” But we also acknowledged “the possibility of a single currency coming into use throughout Europe, which would indeed pose a challenge to the supremacy of the dollar.”
• A very few authors had faith in the euro all along: Bergsten (1997), Portes & Rey (1998).
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Birth of euro implies a potential rival for $
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 All countries U.S. dollar
64.9 66.6 66.9 63.5 63.8
Japanese yen
5.4 6.2 5.5 5.2 4.8
Pound sterling
3.6 3.8 4 4.4 4.4
Swiss franc
0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4
Euro
13.5 16.3 16.7 19.3 19.7
Shares of currencies in reserve holdings, %
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Roles of Int’l CurrencyTable B
Adapted from Kenen Function of money:
Governments Private actors
Store of value
International reserve holdings
Currency substitution (private dollarization)
Medium of exchange
Vehicle currency for foreign exchange intervention
Invoicing trade and financial transactions
Unit of account
Anchor for pegging local currency
Denominating trade and financial transactions
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Shares of Major Int’l Currencies in Reserve Holdings
revised IMF data spliced into old data after 1979
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
USD
DEM
JPY
EUR
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Why should we care?4 ADVANTAGES TO A COUNTRY OF HAVING ITS
CURRENCY PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE WORLD.
• (1) Convenience for its residents.• (2) Business for its banks & other financial institutions. • (3) Seignorage
– narrowly defined as willingness to hold $ as high-powered money (esp. fx reserves held by central banks) or
– more broadly as willingness of private investors to hold $-denominated assets: America’s “exorbitant privilege”
• (4) Political power and prestige.
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Historical precedent: £ ‘s loss of premier international currency status in 20th century
• By 1919, US had passed UK in
1. output (1872)
2. trade (1914)
3. net international creditor position (1914-19)
• Subsequently, $ passed £ as #1 reserve currency (1940-45)
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US overtakes UK, by trade, 1900-1957Data sources: UK Export Data: Department of Trade and Industry, UK; UK exchange rate (1946-1970): Global Financial Data;
US Export Data: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times To 1970; Published by the U.S. Census Bureau
Value of Exports (in millions of dollars)
0.E+00
5.E+03
1.E+04
2.E+04
2.E+04
3.E+04
19
00
19
03
19
06
19
09
19
12
19
15
19
18
19
21
19
24
19
27
19
30
19
33
19
36
19
39
19
47
19
50
19
53
19
56
USA UK
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Cautionary tale, cont.
• UK loss of international currency paralleled loss of its economic pre-eminence, military hegemony, colonies & other trappings of international power.– Suez crisis of 1956 is often recalled as occasion on which Britain
was forced under US pressure to abandon imperial designs. – Often forgotten: Run on the £ was the mechanism.
• Paul Kennedy’s (1989) suggestion -- that imperial overreach hypothesis might apply to US hegemony -- may have been essentially correct– but 15 years premature, – much like those in early 1990s who warned prematurely over$’s imminent demise (Kindleberger, 1995; The Economist, 1995...)
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EU GDP > US GDP
2003
2004
US $11.0 trillion $11.5 trillion
Euro-zone (12 countries)
8.8 tr. 9.0 tr.
EU pre-5/1/04 (15 countries)
11.3 tr. 11.5 tr.
EU post-5/1/4(25 countries)
11.8 tr. 12.1 tr.
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Figure 1: Currency share vs. GDP (mkt. rates). Is the relationship linear or (e.g.) ogive?
-.1
.0
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
.0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6
RATIOY
SHARE
SHARE vs. RATIOY
(GDP using market rates)
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Explaining reserve currency shares, pre-euro (1973-98)Bold figs. sig. at 10% level [2] [4] [6]
GDP ratio
(y)
0.123 [0.049]
0.115 [0.049]
0.085 [0.047]
Inflation diff
(π)
-0.107
[0.060]
-0.143
[0.063]
Depreciation (Δs)
-0.094[0.074]
Exrate var
(σ)
-0.057[0.032]
-0.055[0.032]
-0.030[0.030]
Fxturnover
(to)
0.019
[0.016]
0.023
[0.016]
0.016
[0.017]
GDP leader (leader)
0.026[0.014]
0.023
[0.014]
lagshare
(sht-1)
0.944
[0.020]
0.904[.029]
0.923[.027]
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Explaining currency logit transformed shares, pre-euro
[2] [4] [7]
GDPratio 2.768 3.69 1.04
(y) [0.643] [0.923] [0.288]
Inflationdiff -2.639 -2.86
(π) [1.156] [1.164]
Depreciation -1.095
( Δs) [0.594]
Exratevar -0.981 -1.395 -1.251
(σ) [0.573] [0.644] [0.341]
Fxturnoverratio 0.446 0.576 0.427
(to) [0.289] [0.303] [0.145]
GDPleader -0.217
(leader) [0.156]
laglogit 0.851 0.846 0.957
log(sh t-1/1- sh t-1) [0.031] [0.031] [0.014]
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Explaining two-currency system of logit shares, pre-euro
GDPratio 0.762 1.015 0.974 a/
(y) [0.247] [0.773] [0.688]
Inflationdiff -0.554 -0.844
(π) [1.247] [1.259]
Depreciation -4.524 a/
( Δs) [3.337]
Exratevar -2.375 -2.381
(σ) [1.213] [1.121]
Turnover 0.489 0.652 a/
(to) [0.487] [0.454]
Laglogit 0.829 0.775 0.795
log(sh t-1/ 1- sh t-1) [0.043] [0.085] [0.076]
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Figure 9: Out-of-sample prediction of USD & Euro using logit w/o leader variable
.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
.7
.8
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
USD
EUR
Pred.
Pred.
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Figure 10: Out-of-sample prediction of GBP, JPY and SFR
using logit w/o leader variable
.00
.01
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
JPY
SFR
Pred.
Pred.GBP
Pred.
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Figure 11: Case 2, Scenario BSimulation of “No UK, Swe, Den”, and no further change in
the level of the exchange rate after 2004.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
USD
DEM
EUR
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Figure 13: Case 2, Scenario DSimulation of “No UK, Swe., Den.”
And continued depreciation of $ at 2001-04 rate.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
USD
DEM
EUR
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Figure 14: Case 4, Scenario DSimulation of “UK entry”
and continued depreciation of $ at 2001-04 rate.
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
USD
DEM
EUR