Will Copenhagen Open a Door for Taiwan ?

Chi-Jen Yang

Research Scientist

Center on Global Change

Duke University

Worldwide CO2 Emission

UNFCCC Article 20

This Convention shall be open for signature by States Members of the United Nations or of any of its specialized agencies or that are Parties to the Statute of the International Court of Justice and by regional economic integration organizations…from 20 June 1992 to 19 June 1993.

Taiwan

UNFCCC Article 22

The Convention shall be subject to ratification, acceptance, approval or accession by States and by regional economic integration organizations….

Taiwan

Kyoto Protocol Article 24This Protocol shall be open for signature and subject to ratification, acceptance or approval by States and regional economic integration organizations which are Parties to the Convention.

Taiwan

CO2 per capita

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2009.

GDP per capita

Why would Taiwan want to reduce GHG?• To be a responsible member in global

community

• Alarming experiences in the past

• CITES • 1994 trade sanction over tigers and rhino

• Montreal Protocol• Trade sanction to non-parties

Kyoto Annex-I-style Commitment for Taiwan?

Source: Taiwan EPA

GHG Reduction Bill• under review in the legislature

• would authorize TEPA to regulate GHG

• Performance standards

• Cap-and-trade scheme

• would not obligate TEPA to a pre-specified target of reduction—leave the decision to TEPA

GHG Emission Targets• Short-term (2016-2020): to return to 2008 levels • Mid-term (2025): to 2000 levels • Long-term (2050): to 50% of 2000 levels

Stepwise StrategyStage II

One year after the Act

Stage IIIThree years after the Act

Stage IV TEPA implements

in accordance with international

development

Cap-and-Trade

GHG performance standards,permit and

offset

Voluntary inventory reporting,, EIA offset

Mandatory inventory reporting

, voluntary reduction

Stage IBefore the Act

Designated sources

Designated sources

and new entrants

Target setting by TEPA;

Action plan by relevant authorities

VoluntaryParticipation

EU Post-Kyoto Vision• OECD-wide carbon market by 2015.

• Include major emerging economies (Taiwan?) by 2020.

• Eventually, a global carbon market.

Is there a way to fit Taiwan in?

World Health Assembly (WHA) model World Trade Organization (WTO) model WCPF Convention model

WHA Model 1997–2001: Taiwan applied for WHA observer as

“Republic of China (Taiwan)”, failed due to strong opposition from PRC.

2002: applied as “Taiwan”, failed again. 2003: as “Health authorities of Taiwan”, failed.

2004–2008: as “Taiwan”, all failed. 2009: at the request of PRC, WHA invited “Chinese

Taipei” to be an observer.

WTO Model

Accession rule: any state or customs territory having full autonomy in the conduct of its trade policies may join the WTO

Taiwan joined WTO as “Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu” in 2002.

WCPF Convention

Convention for the Conservation and Management of Highly Migratory Fish Stocks in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean• Any fishing entity…may…agree to be bound by the

regime established by this Convention. • Such fishing entity shall participate in the work of the

Commission…and shall comply with the obligations under this Convention.

WCPF Convention: Record of Fishing Vessels

Does 1% matter?

1% = 47 million passenger cars = 23 million homes = 58 million acres of forest

Acknowledgement

Dr. Hui-Chen Chien

Deputy Director-General

Department of Air Quality Protection and Noise Control

Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration