will china clean our clock in cleantech
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Nat Goldhaber, a co-founder of venture capital firm Claremont Creek Ventures and managing director of its clean technology investments, told participants at the AlwaysOn GoingGreen 2011 conference in San Francisco on Wednesday that China is much more aggressive than the United States in developing clean technology projects and could dominate clean technology development globally. Goldhaber made his remarks during the last day of the conference in a presentation entitled, “Will China Clean Our Clock in Cleantech?” ... But the race for clean technology supremacy is not over, Goldhaber said. He said the United States is very entrepreneurial and has a fierce desire to create new and better technology, including clean technology. Further, the United States actually benefits from low-cost Chinese solar panels, which allows it to more easily accomplish alternative energy goals. Goldhaber said U.S. clean technology development must be enhanced by streamlined regulations and permitting, continued tax incentives, and by much easier immigration policies for foreign graduates from U.S. universities. This would allow more engineering and science graduates to stay in the United States after graduation and contribute to American technological innovationTRANSCRIPT
Will China Clean Our Clock in Cleantech?
Nat GoldhaberGoing Green | Always OnSeptember 28, 2011
Walls all the Way
China Then: Very Serious About Walls
China Then: Very Serious About Walls
China Now: Very Serious about Energy
China Now: Very Serious about Energy
United States: Serious About Solar?
Cherchez la Reptile
Energy Independence vs. Environmentalism
The United States is not serious
Meritocracy = Entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurship = Growth
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
50
100
150
200
250
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual
China
United StatesQu
adri
llio
n B
tu
3.0%Annual Change
0.5%Annual Change
Total Energy Consumption
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
20
40
60
80
100
120
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual
China
United States
Coal Consumption United States & China, 2008-2035
Qu
adri
llio
n B
tu
2.4%Annual Change
0.3%Annual Change
Entrepreneurship - Dirty Coal
500
200
138
100
50
0
Cost of Growth
• People in 56% of Chinese cities breathe dirty air• Annual cost of air and water pollution is 5.8% of GDP (4.3% health + 1.5%
non-health)
5
12
3
4
Very Good Level
Good Level
Unhealthy LevelAvoid Intense Outdoor Activities
Extremely Unhealthy LevelAvoid Outdoor Activities
Dangerous LevelStay Home, Reduce Physical Activity
Bad LevelSensitive People should Stay Indoors
AIR
QU
AL
ITY
LE
VE
L
API Influence on Health
9%
35%
56%
SOURCE: World Bank, Deutsche Bank
Cleantech at Heart of 12th Five-Year Plan
Energy 2015 Target
Reduction in Energy Use 16% reduction per unit of GDP
Reduction in carbon dioxide emissions 17% reduction per unit of GDP
Power industry investment RMB 5.3 trillion
Use of non-fossil fuels as a percentage of total energy use
11.4% by 2015; 15% by 2020
SOURCES: (1) China 12th Five-Year Plan(2) Xinhua, Chnia plans RMB5.3 trin investment power in next 5 years, 22 Dec 2010
Serious About Cleantech
United States China0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Efficiency & Low Carbon Tech/Ser-vices
Biofuels
Other Renewables
Solar
Wind
$34.6B
$18.6B
Investment by Sector (2009)
Serious About Wind
SOURCE: World Wind Energy Association
• China now represents half of the world’s installed wind power capacity• Chinese wind power capacity is targeted to grow 6-7x by 2020
35.159,0
25.810,0
40.180,0
44.733,02010
2009
2010
2009
Investment in Wind Power Capacity($ in billions)
Serious About Solar
Solyndra Trina Suntech JA Solar Yingli Solar$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$7
$8
Chinese Development Bank Loans to Chinese Solar Companies
United States Loan Guarantee
BIL
LIO
NS
Serious About Hydro
2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 20350
5
10
15
20
25
SOURCE: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual
China
United States
Qu
adri
llio
n B
tu
1.5%Annual Change
4.8%Annual Change
Serious About Cleantech Leadership
US China0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
8000
10000
2/3 are not
US citizens
PhDs Engineering Students
Rx for U.S. Cleantech1) H1 Visas and Green Cards
Rx for U.S. Cleantech2) Get Serious
Rx for U.S. Cleantech3) Streamline Regulations/Permitting
BrazilUnited States
Canada*Italy
Japan*Indonesia
BelgiumGermany*
Hong KongIndia
MalaysiaMexico*
Netherlands*Singapore
Taiwan*Thailand
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
15.0%15.0%14.5%12.5%7.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
SOURCE: American Council for Capital Formation
Rx for U.S. Cleantech5) Tax Policy & Incentives
Clean our Clock…?
Where We Win
• China’s advantage Low cost labor Manufacturing efficiency Instant permitting (or none) Minimal environmental and labor regulations Low cost of capital
They make good stuff cheap
Where They Win
We Both Win
… Thanks to China
Loaning us money to buy their goods…Thanks again
$1,400,000,000,000