widewater & winding creek elementary schools … · 2016-12-06 · wes* (-112) 768 46.49 41.7...

WIDEWATER & WINDING CREEK

ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

REDISTRICTING COMMITTEE

RECOMMENDATION

• Introduction

• General Information

• Redistricting Committee

• Attendance Area Policy

• Goals

• Options

• Recommendation

AGENDA

• 2015 – 2024 Student Enrollment

Projections

• ORED (Consultant)

• 10 year Forecast

• Elementary School Enrollment Concerns

• WES – Short & Long Term

• WCES – Mid & Long Term

General Information

General Information

ES Enrollment Forecast

Design

Capacity 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24

Grades K-5

ANTHONY BURNS ES 950 760 762 789 814 813 814 827 824 817 818

CONWAY ES 950 910 912 966 999 1013 1011 1010 1010 1013 1017

FALMOUTH ES 794 535 536 565 583 576 582 592 594 600 602

FERRY FARM ES 732 628 628 647 636 630 629 625 623 625 622

GARRISONVILLE ES 768 517 516 531 538 539 552 556 556 562 564

GRAFTON VILLAGE ES 754 573 572 560 563 559 558 560 561 560 553

HAMPTON OAKS ES 950 801 803 820 805 784 781 775 772 762 758

HARTWOOD ES 649 584 586 604 614 614 618 624 627 644 664

KATE WALLER

BARRETT ES 950 776 778 814 829 829 817 815 819 818 811

MARGARET BRENT ES 950 887 886 897 905 898 900 898 898 904 906

MONCURE ES 754 689 690 716 717 723 721 722 721 723 718

PARK RIDGE ES 843 598 599 594 552 547 551 542 543 534 533

ROCKHILL ES 843 613 611 612 587 582 582 571 565 544 542

ROCKY RUN ES 950 820 821 849 845 847 844 842 842 843 838

STAFFORD ES 794 704 704 727 731 737 735 738 740 739 731

WIDEWATER ES 843 880 883 908 896 897 902 907 910 930 962

WINDING CREEK ES 925 738 746 842 923 960 1014 1055 1078 1171 1306

Totals 14399 12014 12033 12439 12537 12549 12611 12657 12684 12788 12946

• Rebuild Moncure ES

• Design Start 2015

• Construction Start 2017

• Open Sep 2018

• 950 Student Design Capacity

• 196 Student Capacity Increase

General Information

Redistricting Committee

• WES & WCES Redistricting Committee

• Relief to WES & WCES Starting 2015 – 2016

School Year

• Goal – WES/MES/HOES/KWBES

• 90 – 95% Utilization Rate 2017-18 School Year

• WES – Decrease 90 – 135 Students

• MES – Increase < 35 Students

• HOES- Increase 50 – 95 Students

• KWBES – Increase 25 – 70 Students



• Goal – WCES/PRES

• WCES – Decrease 45 - 90 Students

• PRES – Increase < 90 Students

• Stakeholders

WES MES PRES

HOES KWBES WCES



Membership

• Associate Superintendent (Voting)

• Chief Elementary Officer (Voting)

• Principals from each School (Voting – One per

School)

• Parent Representative(s) from each School (Up to

Two Reps)

• Demographic Planner (Facilitator)

• Asst. Superintendent for Operations (Facilitator)

• Pupil Transportation (Non-voting)

• Student Services (Non-voting)

• One Vote per School



Pam Kahle Associate Superintendent

Carrie Neeley Chief Elementary Education

Scott Horan Assistant Superintendent Facilities

Pat Druash Demographics Planner

Susan Clark Student Services

Barry Sudduth Transportation

Jacqui Mejeur Administrative Assistant

Valerie Cottongim Public Information Officer

Greg Machi Moncure Principal

Anna Killion Moncure Parent

Emily Fallen Moncure Parent

Kristen Nash Widewater Principal

Chad Armstrong Widewater Asst Principal

Steven Wert Widewater Parent

Lisa Billingsly Widewater Parent

Kim Austin Kate Waller Barrett Principal

Allen Hicks HOES Asst Principal

Barbara Warren Hampton Oaks Parent

Rebecca Wardlow Winding Creek Principal

Flavia Hall WCES Asst Principal

Mary Ellen Samuelsen Winding Creek Parent

Meg Crane Winding Creek Parent

Keana Butler Park Ridge Principal

Nicole Gramenopoulos Park Ridge - PTO



• Time Line

• SB Approved Strategy Oct 28, 2014

• 1st Redistricting Meeting Nov 18, 2014

• 2nd Redistricting Meeting Dec 2, 2014

• 3rd Redistricting Meeting Dec 16, 2014

• SB Work Session Jan 12, 2015

• Public Hearing Jan 14, 2015

• SB Agenda Item (Info) Jan 27, 2015

• SB Agenda Item (Action) Feb 10, 2015

Attendance Zone Policy

• Proximity of schools to student

residences,

• Walking distances,

• Walking and busing safety,

• Impact on neighborhoods,

• Contiguous school attendance

areas,

• Student Accommodation

Reports,

• Distribution of programs and

resources,

• Comparative long-term costs,

• Frequency of previous changes

for affected neighborhoods

• Forecasted school

enrollment and capacity,

• Busing times and costs,

• Natural and man-made

geographic features,

• School feeder patterns,

• Capital Improvement

Plan,

• Socioeconomic

characteristics of school

populations,

• Overall impact on families

and students,

• Parental Input

• Policy 1403

OPTIONS

OPTION 1 Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to MES, APU 169 to KWBES,

APU 167 to HOES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Estimate

Nutrition Nov F&R

%

Nutrition Nov F&R Students

2017-18 Forecast Result

Design Capacity % in 2017-18

Design Capacity

KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950

HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950

MES* (+28) 721 22.52 22.7 154 753 99.87 754

WES* (-112) 768 46.49 41.7 375 766 90.87 843

3154 3247

*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)

*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)

PROS CONS

KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18

WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES does not meet goal for 2017-18

OPTION 1a Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to MES, APU 169 to KWBES,

APU 167 to HOES 12/16/2014

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R %

Estimate Nutrition

Nov F&R %



Design Capacity % in

2017-18

Design Capacity

KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950 HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950 MES (+25) 721 22.52 22.7 154 753 99.87 754 WES (-109) 768 46.49 41.7 375 766 90.87 843

3154 3247 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)


End Result 2015-16

Enrollment


2015-16 Add Two Modulars

Main Building in 2015-16


2015-16

Design Capacity

MES (+25) 721 753 50 671 88.99 754



2017-18

Design Capacity

703 93.24 754 PROS CONS

KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18 WES meets goal for 2017-18 MES meets goal for 2017-18

OPTION 2

Port Aquia & Potomac Hills to MES, APU 167 to HOES, & 169 to KWBES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment

F&R Estimat

e

Nutrition Nov F&R %


2017-18 Forecast Results


Design Capacity

KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950

HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950

MES (+55) 745 25.5 22.7 154 762 101.06 754

WES (-139) 744 45.82 41.7 375 757 89.80 843

3154 3247 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)

PROS CONS


MES does not meet goal for 2017-18

WES does not meet goal for 2017-18

OPTION 2a Port Aquia & Potomac Hills to MES, APU 167 to HOES, & 169 to

KWBES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Estimate

Nutrition Nov F&R

%


2017-18 Forecast Results


Design Capacity

KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 56.6 447 878 92.42 950 HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950 MES* (+55) 745 25.5 22.7 154 762 101.06 754 WES (-139) 744 45.82 41.7 375 757 89.80 843

3154 3247 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run 2017-18 - 10 Students

Option - Add two Modular Units to MES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment


2015-16 Add Two Modulars



Design Capacity

MES (+25) 745 762 50 695 92.18 754



Design Capacity

712 94.43 754 PROS CONS

KWBES meets goal for 2017-18 HOES does not meet goal for 2017-18 MES meets goal for 2017-18 WES does not meet goal for 2017-18

OPTION 3

Aquia Harbor to HOES, Hills of Aquia & Port Aquia to MES; Woodstream,Staffordborough, Foxwood Village, & Sunningdale to MES, APU 167 to

HOES, and APU 169 to KWBES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Estimate

Nutrition Nov F&R

%



Design Capacity

% in 2017-18

Design Capacity

HOES (+75)*** 899 30.55 56.6 447 943 99.26 950

KWBES (+39)** 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950

MES (-5)*,**,*** 667 55.12 22.7 154 657 87.14 754

WES (-109)* 771 48.28 41.7 375 769 91.22 843

3154 3247

*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia - WES to MES - 3 students in 2014-15, 18 in 2017-18

** Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run - 10 students in 2017-18 - MES to KWBES

*** Adjustment for anticipated growth in Aquia Town Center - 21 in 2015/16 , 63 students by 2017/18.

MES to HOES

PROS CONS



OPTION 4

Modulars until Moncure Rebuild - Opens in 2018-19

2015-16 Forecast

2015-16 Add 2

Modulars Main Building

Design Capacity

Design %

Widewater 883 50 833 843 98.81

2016-17 Forecast

2016-17 Add 2

Modulars

Main Building Design

Capacity Design %

Widewater 908 100 808 843 95.85

2017-18 Forecast

No Additions

Main Building Design

Capacity Design %

Widewater 896 100 796 843 94.42

PROS CONS

Defers Redistricting Until New MES Stress on CORE Facilities @ WES

Additional Cost for Lease and Operation

OPTION 5

Hills of Aquia, Port Aquia & APU 167 to HOES, APU 169 to KWBES, Foxwood Village to MES, Villages of Aquia to SES

End Result 2015-16 Enrollme

nt

F&R Estimate

Nutrition Nov F&R

%




Design Capacity

HOES (-129) 674 36.54 56.6 447 668 70.32 950

KWBES** (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 888 93.47 950

MES*, ** (+125) 818 44.00 22.7 154 858 113.79 754

WES* (-109) 771 45.00 41.7 375 759 90.04 843

SES (+74) 778 26.25 23.40 161 805 101.39 794

3858 3978

*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)


PROS CONS



SES does not meet goal for 2017-18

OPTION 6 Hills of Aquia, Port Aquia, Villages of Aquia & APU 167 to HOES, APU 169 to KWBES, Sunningdale, Staffordborough, and Woodstream MES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Nutrition Nov F&R %




2017-18

Design Capacity

HOES (+39) 842 33.65 56.6 447 844 88.84 950

KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950

MES* (+23) 713 26.00 22.7 154 730 96.82 754

WES (-101) 782 45.00 41.7 375 795 94.31 843

3154 3247

*Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hampton Run2017-18 - 10 students from MES to HOES

PROS CONS



OPTION 7

Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to MES, APU 169 to KWBES, APU 167 to HOES, Cabin Creekwood & Colonial Terrace from KWBES to PRES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Nutrition Nov F&R %




2017-18

Design Capacity

KWBES** (-2) 776 57.00 56.6 447 837 88.11 950 HOES (+45) 848 57.97 58.2 463 850 89.47 950 MES*,** (+28) 718 22.52 22.7 154 753 99.87 754 PRES (+41) 640 24.43 21.7 129 593 70.34 843 WES* (-112) 771 46.49 41.7 375 766 90.87 843

3753 3799

Note: If APU 156 moves from WCES to PRES, result for PRES would be:

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Estimate Nutrition

Nov F&R %




2017-18

Design Capacity

PRES (+119) 718 22.00 21.7 129 671 79.60 843 *Adjustment for anticipated new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)


PROS CONS

WES meets goal for 2017-18 KWBES, HOES, MES and PRES do not meet goal for 2017-18

OPTION 8

PART 1 Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to HOES, APU 169 to KWBES, Sunningdale

and Staffordborough to MES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Estimated

Nutrition Nov F&R

%




2017-18

Design Capacity

HOES (+50) 853 52.96 56.6 447 855 90.00 950 KWBES* (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878

92.42 950

MES* (+20) 710 28.97 22.7 154 727 96.42 754

WES (-109) 774 47.79 41.7 375 787 93.36 843

3154 3247 *2017-18 forecast adjusted by 10 students due to anticipated growth from Hampton Run Subdivision

PART 2

Foxwood Village, Villages of Aquia, and APU 167 to HOES from MES, Potomac Hills from WES to HOES

End Result 2018-19

Enrollment Estimated F&R


2018-19 Design Capacity

HOES (-41) 743 38.22 78.21 950

KWBES (+39) 868 56.35 91.37 950

MES (+184) 907 44.10 95.47 950

WES (-182) 715 47.79 84.82 843

3233 *2018- 19 forecast adjusted by 15 students due to anticipated growth from Hampton Run Subdivision

PROS CONS



MES meets goal for 2018-19

OPTION 9 - APU 156 from WCES to PRES & Shelton Woods from WCES to GES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Nutrition Nov F&R

%



Design Capacity

% in 2017-18

Design Capacity

PRES (+78) 677 28.37 21.7 129 630 74.73 843

WCES* (-78) 660 18.61 17.0 126 793 85.73 925

GES* (+52) 524 26.20 25.5 143 590 76.82 768

1861 2013

*2015-16 Enrollment increases by a projected 8 students for GES in 2015-16 and decreases by 8 for WCES.

Shelton Woods has not built houses - total build out with an additional 44 students is reflected in 2017-18.

PROS CONS

WCES reduced to allow for growth PRES does not meet goal for 2017-18

WCES does not meet goal for 2017-18

GES does not meet goal for 2017-18

OPTION 10 - Aquia Harbor to HOES, Hills of Aquia & Port Aquia to MES; Woodstream,Staffordborough, Foxwood Village, & Sunningdale to MES, and APU

169 to KWBES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Estimate

Nutrition Nov F&R

%




2019-20

Design Capacity

HOES (+33) 836 31.98 56.6 447 838 88.21 950

KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950

MES (+37) 730 54.60 22.7 154 744 98.67 754

WES (-109) 771 48.91 41.7 375 787 93.35 843

3154 3247

*Adjustment for anticipated home growth - Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (2014-15 +3, 2017-18 +18)

*Adjustment for anticipated home growth in Hampton Run from MES to KWBES (2017-18 - +10 students)

PROS CONS



OPTION 12

Aquia Harbor to HOES, Hills of Aquia & Port Aquia to MES; Woodstream,Staffordborough, Foxwood Village, & Sunningdale to MES, and APU 169

to KWBES

End Result 2015-16

Enrollment F&R

Estimate

Nutrition Nov F&R

%




Design Capacity

HOES (+30) 854 30.55 56.6 447 898 94.53 950

KWBES (+39) 817 56.35 58.2 463 878 92.42 950

MES (+40) 712 55.12 22.7 154 702 93.10 754

WES (-109) 771 48.28 41.7 375 769 91.22 843

3154 3247 Note: Adjustments for anticipated growth in Aquia Town Center (21 in 2015/16 , 63 students by 2017/18) from MES to HOES; new home growth in Hills of Aquia from WES to MES (3 - 2014/15, 18 - 2017/18), and new home growth in Hampton Run (10 - 2017/18 from MES to KWBES)

PROS CONS

All schools meet goals for 2017-18 Large numbers of students moved - too drastic change per MES

Hills of Aquia and Port Aquia to from WES to HOES; APU 169

from MES to KWBES, Sunningdale and Staffordborough to from

HOES to MES, Cabin Creekwood & Colonial Terrace from KWBES

to PRES; APU 156 from WCES to PRES; Shelton Woods from

WCES to GES

OPTION 13

PART 1

End Result

2015-16

Enrollm

ent

F&R

Nutritio

n Nov

F&R %

Nutritio

n Nov

F&R

Student

s

2017-18

Forecast

Result

Design

Capacity

% in

2017-18

Design

Capacity

HOES (+50) 853 52.96 58.2 447 855 90.00 950

KWBES (+8) 776 56.35 56.6 463 837 88.11 950

MES (+20) 710 28.97 22.7 154 727 96.42 754

WES (-109) 774 47.79 41.7 375 787 93.36 843

PRES (+119) 718 22.97 21.7 129 671 79.60 843

GES (+52) 524 25.50 25.5 143 590 76.82 768

WCES (-130) 660 17.51 17.0 126 793 85.73 925

5015 5260*2015-16 increase of 8 students from WCES to GES in 2015-16, 52 students in 2017-18 for Shelton Woods

*2017-18 increase of 10 students from MES to KWBES for Hampton Run Subdivison

Villages of Aquia from MES to HOES; Foxwood Village from HOES to

MES; Potomac Hills from WES to HOES; and APU 167 from MES to

HOES

PART 2

PROS

HOES meets goal for 2017-18

WES meets goal for 2018-19

End Result

2018-19

Enrollment

F&R

Estimate

Design

Capacity %

in 2018-19

Design

Capacity

HOES (-41) 743 38.22 78.21 950

KWBES (+8) 837 56.35 88.11 950

MES (+174) 897 44.10 94.42 950

WES (-182) 715 47.49 84.82 843

PRES(+119) 666 22.97 79.60 843

GES(+52) 611 25.50 76.82 768

WCES(-130) 830 17.51 85.73 925

5299

HOES does not meet goal in 2018-19

WES does not meet goal in 2018-19

CONS

MES does not meet goal for 2018-19 & 19-20

KWBES does not meet goal for 2015-16, 17-18

Recommendation

• Option #13 – Combines Option #8 and #9

• Redistricted Rising 8th Graders Be Allowed to

Stay at Current School But Must Provide

Own Transportation

• Will Not Apply to Siblings

• No Transfers Will be Approved from

Redistricted Neighborhoods

widewater & winding creek elementary schools … · 2016-12-06 · wes* (-112) 768 46.49 41.7...

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