Why People vote

Suffering through Suffrage

Clearly Stated Learning Objectives

• Examine the 2008 Election in the broader context of American electoral history

• Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2008 Election.

• Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process at the Presidential levels

AGE

Young Voters

• About Young Voters

• Young voters in 2004

Young Voters in 2008

• 2-1 For Obama

• Why

• What about other Age Groups

Age and Vote 2008

INCOME AND EDUCATION

Social Class

• Not a very Important Distinction

• Democrats do well at both ends

Education

• Education is correlated with income.

• There once was a linear relationship with voting Republican

• Many cross-cutting factors at play- for one everybody has a High School Degree!

Education and Vote

Education in 2008

• A curvilinear relationship

• Obama Does well with both ends of the education spectrum

RELIGION

Religion in America

• Americans are very religious in affiliation and action

• Religion has changed in America– More Religions

– More Politically Active Religions

Identification vs. Behavior

• Being a member of a Religion is not an accurate predictor of vote choice

• Religious activity is a much better predictor

Church Attendance and Vote

Who you are

• Jewish voters

• Catholics

Vote By Religion- 2008

Protestants

• Evangelicals

• Mainline

REGIONIt is not what it used to be

The Solid South

• A key component of the Roosevelt coalition– 11 states of the Confederacy Provided• 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916• 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932• 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960• 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976

– Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates

Why the South Used to be more important

• Shared the characteristics of an important group– Large– Reliable

• The GOP Southern Strategy changes this

The Shift in the South

• 56.6% of Bush’s necessary votes in 2008

• Only 1 Non-southern Democratic Candidate from 1948-2008 won election

• Obama Mobilizes African American Voters in large states (FL, NC, VA)

Why Region is not as Important

• Mobility

• National exposure of the Media

• Region is an intervening variable, as primary factors really push vote

Region in 2008

Cities and Suburbs

• Urban areas and Rural Areas

• America is becoming less rural

• Obama dominates cities, and wins the burbs

Where We live

Gender and Marriage

• The Gender Gap

• Why?

Gender in 2008

Marriage

• Married People vote Republican

• Singles vote Democratic

Marital Status

Decline of Security Moms