Why do people move to the Northern Territory?Why do they leave?

Dr Tom Wilson

School for Social and Policy ResearchCharles Darwin University

Background

High rates of migration turnover in the NT costs for business; loss of expertise; sense of history

Background

Over last 20 years net migration has averaged zeroi.e. all population increase in NT has come from natural increase (births – deaths)

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

19

70

-71

19

75

-76

19

80

-81

19

85

-86

19

90

-91

19

95

-96

20

00

-01

20

05

-06

financial year

an

nu

al n

um

be

r

natural increase

net migration

NT Mobility Project

Need to understand the drivers of migration in order to inform policy.

ARC Linkage Project with NT Treasury and ABS, 2005-08,investigating the patterns and processes of migration to and from the NT.

Surveys Computer Assisted Telephone Interview Survey In-depth semi-structured interviews Postal survey of migration Studies of certain professional groups

Why do people move to the NT?

Reasons given for moving to the NT %

Work-related reasons 65

To be closer to, or with, family/partner/friends 20

Lifestyle 7

Return home 4

Came to visit and stayed 2

New start/sea change 2

Education 2

Weather/climate 2

Disliked previous place/escape problems 1

Natural environment 1

Types of work-related moves

Role of organisations clearly important

Type of move %

Transfer/posting with existing employer for self 22

Transfer/posting with existing employer for partner 11

New job with new employer for self 37

New job with new employer for partner 19

Business opportunity for self 5

Business opportunity for partner 2

Other 5

Transfers and postings

Many different types of organisation:

defence force law firms

Commonwealth Government administration

telecommunications companies national retailers

Australia Post the federal police major banks

television companies insurance companies

customs tourism operators airlines

real estate agencies accountancy firms

construction companies mining companies

Gender inequality: women as ‘tied movers’

For those who moved as couples/families, migration to the NT is dominated by factors associated with the male partner’s job.

14% of male participants stated that they moved for their partner’s job

25% of females reported that their own job was the main reason for moving

Relocation expenses

Did anyone assist you with relocation expenses when you moved to the Territory?Yes: 52%No: 48%

Would you have moved to the Territory without this support?

Yes: 51%No: 49%

Do higher wages/salaries attract people to the NT?

Only in a minority of cases.

The in-depth interviews showed that moving to the Territory provided the opportunity for career advancement and a greater breadth of experience.

Higher pay sometimes played a role in the decision-making process, but for many migrants to the NT higher pay was intimately bound up in a general desire for career advancement and satisfaction

Personal relationships

One fifth of moves motivated by personal relationships

We had a 3000 km long-distance relationship so I moved to be closer to my partner.

to live near relatives … to be with my son up here …

to watch my grandchildren grow up …

I came for a holiday, met a girl, and stayed ….

Our children live here. We were getting older and couldn’t count on our neighbours to take care of us.

I came to the Territory on my way around Australia and met my husband

to get away from my family…

“

”

Lifestyle

Some moved to the NT primarily for the lifestyle. The word ‘lifestyle’ can cover many things, and survey participants mentioned:

the laid back lifestyle…

… for the weather and the fishing

… to escape the big city rat race … fishing and hunting

we can always do things outdoors…

more peaceful and community minded…

a quieter place to live… it’s an easy lifestyle

I like the outdoors lifestyle – camping, fishing, motor biking and four-wheel driving…

“

”

Returning home

Some survey participants mentioned “returning home”.

Not really a reason for migration as such, but it is a reminder that many movers to the NT are returnees.

48% of participants in the CATI who moved to the NT 1997-2006 had lived in the NT before (either because they are NT-born or had moved to the NT before)

These answers demonstrate feelings of place attachment, or ‘moorings’ to the NT

Accidental movers

Came on a visit and stayed

I came to visit my cousins and only meant to stay for a short time

We were travelling around Australia and stopped to earn some money

Came for a holiday and liked it

The Territory’s where the van broke down

I was travelling round Australia, got to Alice, and thought ‘this is the place to stay’

We came for a holiday and liked it so much we never returned to Tasmania

“

”

Why do people leave the NT?

Many people move to the NT with the intention of moving out after some period

* Non-Indigenous adults who moved to the NT between 1997 and 2006

When you moved to the NT did you intend to stay for a set period of time?*

0 20 40 60 80

Yes

No

percentage

up to 1 year

1-2 years

3-5 years

over 5 years

indefinitely

other

Why do you expect to leave the NT?*

* Non-Indigenous adults who moved to the NT between 1997 and 2006 stating they intended to stay for less than 10 years

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

work reasons

to be nearer family

weather/climate

education

time for a change

cost of living in NT

isolation/remoteness

antisocial behaviour

live near coast

Indigenous issues

housing

percentage

Reasons for leaving the NT: work-related

Dissatisfaction with opportunities in NT public service: “I felt that the NT public service was not interested in developing people of my age”

Reluctant move south for husband’s career

Unpleasant working environment at one particular hospitality workplace

Unfulfilling work in medical field: “they were doing practices that were out of the 1970s”

Reasons for leaving the NT: family-related

“I got pregnant and wanted to make sure that my baby grew up with my sister and her family near us, so that’s when I decided to move”

“I wanted the kids to know their cousins and aunties so we moved for family reasons”

“Both of us are lucky to have our parents alive down south, but they’re in their 80s. There was a strong pull to be back closer to them”

Reasons for leaving the NT: climate

“Too bloody hot”

“Don’t like the cyclone season”

“I want to go somewhere where it gets cold”

Retiree wanted to do lots of gardening in retirement. “The build-up was getting to me. October, November, December was just so bloody uncomfortable”

“Had enough of the heat”

Could intending leavers be persuaded to change their minds?

* Non-Indigenous adults stating they intended to leave within 10 years

Is there anything that might encourage you to live in the NT permanently?*

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Yes No Maybe Don't know

pe

rce

nta

ge

What might encourage you to stay permanently?*

* Non-Indigenous adults stating they intended to leave within 10 years who answered ‘yes’ or ‘maybe’ to the question about something persuading them to stay

0 10 20 30 40 50

If pay/work was better

If better education

If lower cost of living

Family responsibilities

If family was in NT

If travel was cheaper

If there was less crime

If housing was cheaper

If found partner

If better Indig. situation

If better shopping

If more entertainment/arts

If climate was milder

percentage

Would stay if work was better

“Income for teachers is higher here but it’s going backwards because of the cost of living”

“a better job opportunity or a promotion”

“if the perks and allowances were reinstated”

“I would stay if I got an increase in salary”

“if I got a little more respect from my employer”

“if I could get more work in Darwin I would definitely think about staying”

Would stay if more/better education

“If the schooling was up to scratch”

“If CDU had better social science I might stay”

“If I could complete my studies here”

“being able to access better education opportunities”

“better standard of education for the kids”

Migration is complex

It is never due to just one “factor”.

Individual and family move/stay decisions are made within a wider context that encompasses Labour market Decisions of companies/organisations Housing market Personal networks Needs of other family membersetc.

Economic factors predominate in the NT

The size, structure & operation of the NT economy is key to understanding migration to and from the Territory. Small economy Types of industry Employment practices of major employers (e.g. fixed term contracts, postings, etc.)

Even for people who are motivated to move for non-economic reasons, the availability of employment is often a facilitating factor.

Concluding comments

NT Mobility Project is moving towards a better understanding of migration to & from the NT

Also helpful to understand, in the context of so much mobility, why some people reside in the NT long-term

Can migration turnover be reduced through policy intervention? Possibly slightly. Maybe better to:• accept high migration turnover but manage it better• focus on increasing the size of the NT economy • maintain high fertility rates

What is the likely population of the Territory in 20 years’ time?

The future population of the NT, 2006-31

Projection assumptions – status quo scenario

Indigenous Non-Indigenous

TFR 2.7 2.0

Life expectancy 69.8 (m) 76.9 (f) 83.7 (m) 87.3 (f)

Net interstate mig -100 p.a. -400 p.a.

Net overseas mig 0 660 p.a.

The future population of the NT

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

20

36

po

pu

latio

n

Total

Non-Indigenous

Indigenous

Growth in the NT Indigenous population

10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Ag

e g

rou

p

males females

2006

2026

Proportional age structure change in the NT Indigenous population, 2006-26

0 50 100 150 200

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Ag

e g

rou

p

% increase 2006-2026

Growth in the NT non-Indigenous population

10,000 5,000 0 5,000 10,000

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Ag

e g

rou

p

males females

2006

2026

Proportional age structure change in the NT non-Indigenous population, 2006-26

0 100 200 300

0-45-9

10-1415-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84

85+

Ag

e g

rou

p

% increase 2006-2026

Concluding comments

Under a status quo scenario• considerable population growth• much ageing

But projections are very uncertain for the NT- much depends on economic growth & interstate competition for workers- fertility could fall- overseas migration could drop