why do climate models drizzle too much and what impact ...€¦ · models precipitate too lightly,...
TRANSCRIPT
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Why Do Climate Models Drizzle Too Much and What Impact Does This Have?
Christopher Terai, Peter Caldwell, and Stephen KleinLawrence Livermore National Laboratory
And members of the ACME Atmosphere Team
This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energyby Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 IM release: LLNL-PRES-724977
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Models precipitate too lightly, too frequently
- Previous studies have found that many climate models rain too lightly and too frequently (Dai, 2006; Stephens et al., 2010; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014)- Going to higher resolution does not improve issue (Terai et al., submitted)
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
ACME Total
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Models precipitate too lightly, too frequently
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP)
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
- Previous studies have found that many climate models rain too lightly and too frequently (Dai, 2006; Stephens et al., 2010; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014)- Going to higher resolution does not improve issue (Terai et al., submitted)
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Models precipitate too lightly, too frequently
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP)CMIP5 Total
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
- Previous studies have found that many climate models rain too lightly and too frequently (Dai, 2006; Stephens et al., 2010; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014)- Going to higher resolution does not improve issue (Terai et al., submitted)
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Models precipitate too lightly, too frequently
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP)CMIP5 TotalACME Convective
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
- Previous studies have found that many climate models rain too lightly and too frequently (Dai, 2006; Stephens et al., 2010; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014)- Going to higher resolution does not improve issue (Terai et al., submitted)
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Models precipitate too lightly, too frequently
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)CMIP5 TotalACME Convective
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
- Previous studies have found that many climate models rain too lightly and too frequently (Dai, 2006; Stephens et al., 2010; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014)- Going to higher resolution does not improve issue (Terai et al., submitted)
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Models precipitate too lightly, too frequently
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)CMIP5 TotalACME Convective
‘convective drizzle’
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
- Previous studies have found that many climate models rain too lightly and too frequently (Dai, 2006; Stephens et al., 2010; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014)- Going to higher resolution does not improve issue (Terai et al., submitted)
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Questions
1) What causes the light rain in the model?
Who?What?When?Where?Why?
2) How big is the model vs. observation discrepancy?Comparisons with CloudSat
3) Does affect other parts of the current climate?Model experiments where light rain is suppressed
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Where does it occur?Frequency map of 0.1<P<5 mm d-1
Occurs most frequently over ocean (Kooperman et al., 2015), in the transition to heavy precipitation
colors – frequency of convective drizzle // contours – annual mean precip rate
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Who? – Convective precipitation contributes most to the light rain
Puzzle: Odd that the deep-convective scheme is producing light rainfall events(Zhang-MacFarlane scheme).
Precipitation rate (mm d-1)
Rat
io
Proportion of precipitation from convective scheme
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Deep-convection scheme triggers very frequently
Frequency map of ZM-scheme triggering
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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When? – how long do these convective drizzle events last?Average lifetime of a convective drizzle event
*Based on 2 months of time-step level output
The average lifetime is at least 6 hr over most regions, but can be as high as 48 hr (2 d) over some areas.
hours
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Why? – how does the deep convective scheme produce light rain?
Light rain mostly falls under large-scale subsidence
Precipitation rate (mm d-1)
ω500 for a given a precipitation rate
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Why? – how does the deep convective scheme produce light rain? pt. 2
Convective mass flux between 925 and 400 mb
Convective precipitation rate (mm d-1)
In light rain conditions, the deep-convective scheme only convects up to ~800mb. - The ZM-scheme is doing shallow mixing.
Convective mass flux (kg m-2 s-1)
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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But don’t GPCP and TRMM miss light precipitation features?
Model frequency map of 0.1<P<5 mm d-1
colors – frequency of convective drizzle // contours – annual mean precip rate
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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But don’t GPCP and TRMM miss light precipitation features?
Model frequency map of 0.1<P<5 mm d-1
colors – frequency of convective drizzle // contours – annual mean precip rate
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
Hawaii
SEP trades
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Daily precipitation frequency over SEP region(lat: 7.5-27.5S lon:100-140W)
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)CMIP5 TotalACME Convective
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CloudSat snapshot data indicate more frequent light precipitation scenes than GPCP or TRMM
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME Convective
Frequency distribution with time-step level output (SEP trades)
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CloudSat snapshot data indicate more frequent light precipitation scenes than GPCP or TRMM
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME Convective
Frequency distribution with time-step level output (SEP trades)
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CloudSat snapshot data indicate more frequent light precipitation scenes than GPCP or TRMM
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME Convective
Frequency distribution with time-step level output (SEP trades)
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CloudSat snapshot data indicate more frequent light precipitation scenes than GPCP or TRMM
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME ConvectiveCloudSat
500 km CloudSat segments are used to approximate 1°x 1°horizontal gridding (following Stephens et al., 2010)
Frequency distribution with time-step level output (SEP trades)
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CloudSat snapshot data indicate more frequent light precipitation scenes than GPCP or TRMM
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
Over the Hawaii and SEP regions, where frequent ‘drizzle’ is found in the model, CloudSat also indicates a high frequency of light precipitation rate.However, light rain is still too frequent in the model.
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME ConvectiveCloudSat
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME ConvectiveCloudSat
Hawaii SEP
Frequency distribution with time-step level output
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What does the precipitation look like in CloudSat?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
latitude
refle
ctiv
ityPr
ecip
itatio
n ra
te
Mean (unc)FractionIntensity
dBZ
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What does the precipitation look like in CloudSat?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
latitude
refle
ctiv
ityPr
ecip
itatio
n ra
te
1.2 mm d-1 (±0.8)3.8%31.8 mm d-1
2.8 mm d-1 (±1.9)8.8%31.8 mm d-1
0.1 mm d-1 (±0.1)1.8%6.7 mm d-1
0.2 mm d-1 (±0.2)1.0%16.8 mm d-1
Mean (unc)FractionIntensity
dBZ
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What does the precipitation look like in CloudSat?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
latitude
refle
ctiv
ityPr
ecip
itatio
n ra
te
1.2 mm d-1 (±0.8)3.8%31.8 mm d-1
2.8 mm d-1 (±1.9)8.8%31.8 mm d-1
0.1 mm d-1 (±0.1)1.8%6.7 mm d-1
0.2 mm d-1 (±0.2)1.0%16.8 mm d-1
2500m
Mean (unc)FractionIntensity
dBZ
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What are the climate implications?
What is the effect of the light rain on climate? Does the simulated climate look different without the light rainfall?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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What are the climate implications?
What is the effect of the light rain on climate? Does the simulated climate look different without the light rainfall?
Conduct an experiment where we artificially zero all convective tendencies when the convective rain rate is < 5 mm d-1.
ACME TotalACME Conv.modified Totalmodified Conv.
Experiment details5-year simulations of control and experimentPerpetual year 2000 conditions
Time-step level frequency of precipitation rate (global)
Precipitation rate (mm d-1)
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Result: Deep-convective scheme triggers substantially less often with modificationFrequency map of ZM-scheme triggering (modified run)
Frequency map of ZM-scheme triggering (original)
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Slight shift of precipitation to heavier regions
Annual-mean precipitation rate in original simulation
mm d-1
Modified simulation minus original simulation
mm d-1
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Increase in the frequency of heavy events
Probability of exceeding a given precipitation rate
ACME originalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME modified
Although the modification increases extreme precipitation rates, the model still underestimates the frequency of heaviest precipitation events
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Reduction of clouds leads to more absorbed solar radiation
Top of atmosphere radiation (Original Modified):0.59 W m-2 1.26 W m-2
Difference in shortwave cloud forcingmean =1.42 W m-2
Difference in cloud fraction
W m-2
Fraction
Reductions in low-level clouds lead to more absorbed radiation at the surface.
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Conclusions
Identified the conditions behind the too light and too frequent precipitation problem in a prototype of the ACME climate model
Who? - Deep convective schemeWhat? - Rains too lightly, too frequentlyWhen? - Mostly under drier FT, large-scale subsidenceWhere? - Over the trade cumulus regionsWhy? - The deep convective scheme drives shallow mixing
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Conclusions
Identified the conditions behind the too light and too frequent precipitation problem in a prototype of the ACME climate model
Who? - Deep convective schemeWhat? - Rains too lightly, too frequentlyWhen? - Mostly under drier FT, large-scale subsidenceWhere? - Over the trade cumulus regionsWhy? - The deep convective scheme drives shallow mixing
Snapshot data from CloudSat indicates that in regions where it rains often, there is a frequent number of instances with light rain than GPCP/TRMM but the model still precipitates too frequently
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Conclusions
Identified the conditions behind the too light and too frequent precipitation problem in a prototype of the ACME climate model
Who? - Deep convective schemeWhat? - Rains too lightly, too frequentlyWhen? - Mostly under drier FT, large-scale subsidenceWhere? - Over the trade cumulus regionsWhy? - The deep convective scheme drives shallow mixing
Snapshot data from CloudSat indicates that in regions where it rains often, there is a frequent number of instances with light rain than GPCP/TRMM but the model still precipitates too frequently
When we keep the model from producing convective drizzle, then1) the precipitation shifts to heavier regions2) the frequency of heavier precipitation rates slightly increases3) the amount of absorbed shortwave radiation increases due to fewer low-level clouds
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Ongoing work
What are the implications to moisture and energy transport of the frequent light rain events?
Can differences in between CloudSat, TRMM/GPCP, and the model be due to spatial or temporal scaling issues?
What are the implications of the light rain on future precipitation response?
How well can we generalize the mechanisms behind the too light, too frequent problem to other climate models?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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Extra Slides
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Scaling CloudSat curtains to model grid boxes
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
Stephens et al., 2010
Curtain selectionCurtain must pass within 500 km of the box center
Segment selectionSelect section that exists within box
Hawaii - lat: 11-31N lon:140-170WSEP - lat: 7.5-27.5S lon:100-140W
Time periodHawaii – March 2008-June2009SEP – July 2009-June2010
Averaging500 km CloudSat segments are used to approximate 1°x 1° horizontal gridding (following Stephens et al., 2010)
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Is the discrepancy due to time averaging?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
Yes, averaging over time does tend to increase the frequency of ‘light rain events’, but discrepancy is larger between model and obs than model daily and model time-step.
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME ConvectiveCloudSat
ACME time-stepACME daily
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Is the discrepancy due to time averaging?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
Yes, averaging over time does tend to increase the frequency of ‘light rain events’, but discrepancy is larger between model and obs than model daily and model time-step.
ACME TotalOBS (GPCP+TRMM)ACME ConvectiveCloudSat
ACME time-stepACME daily
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CloudSat snapshot data indicate more frequent light precipitation scenes than GPCP or TRMM
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
Over the Hawaii and SEP regions, where frequent ‘drizzle’ is observed in the model, CloudSat also indicates a high frequency of light precipitation rate
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What does the precipitation look like in CloudSat?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
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What does the precipitation look like in CloudSat?
Introduction Causes CloudSat Model Experiment
latitude
refle
ctiv
ityPr
ecip
itatio
n ra
te
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Substantial changes to the aerosol concentration and to cloud phase partitioningDifference in Aerosol Optical Depth
Difference in cloud LWP
Difference in cloud IWP
Introduction Identification Model Experiment
Original (mean =0.14)
Modified (mean =0.16)
Difference (mean =0.02)
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More details on cloud liquid and ice partitioning
Introduction Identification Model Experiment
Difference in cloud liquid Difference in cloud ice
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Why? – how does the deep convective scheme produce light rain?
Light rain mostly falls under large-scale subsidence
Introduction Identification Model Experiment
Light rain mostly falls in ‘dry’ conditions
Precipitation rate (mm d-1)Precipitation rate (mm d-1)
Precipitable water for given a precip rateω500 for given a precip rate
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Models precipitate too lightly, too frequently
- Previous studies have found that many climate models rain too lightly and too frequently (Stephens et al., 2010; Pendergrass and Hartmann, 2014)- Going to higher resolution does not improve issue (Terai et al., submitted)
Introduction Identification Model Experiment
ACME v1 PRECTOBS (GPCP+TRMM)CMIP5 PRECTACME v1 PRECCACME v0.3 PRECTACME v0.3 PRECC